Ben Sheets (Was Sheets Signs with A's)

[CubsWin]

What if all those things don't go wrong? What if the Cubs aren't suddenly left with only 2 dependable starters, but have 4 after Lilly comes back in May?

 

 

The fact is they are starting the season without Lilly and he's coming off surgery. You prepare for the season that way and go from there. I don't give a crap about going into the season thinking, "hey if all these things workout we'll be alright". Of course if everything works out this team will be fine. But that's not how reality works. They are going into the season in a position of weakness, only 2 dependable starting pitchers, and that is before accounting for the inevitable speed bump. As of now they are last year's team, minus Harden and Bradley, plus Byrd and Silva. I don't see how that is even remotely an improvement. And last year's team was not an improvement from the 2008 team. (minus Wood, DeRosa and Edmonds, plus Gregg, Bradley and Miles).

 

They need to replace Harden just to stay even with last year's rotation.

 

I don't see why a $140m payroll team has to go into a season hoping a bunch of stuff will work out so they can have a chance. This team should be in a position where a bunch of things would have to go wrong to think they don't have a chance, and that's not the case.

1. I don't believe everything will turn out okay. I don't sit back and expect Soriano will be a 40-40 guy again, or that Soto will put up his ROY numbers again. Only that they are more likely to improve from last year than to not and that you don't seem to factor that in. The previous post was simply as example of a scenario that was more likely to happen than yours.

2. I also don't believe that Wells will tank and Lilly's recovery will last most of the season or that his effectiveness will be greatly lessened because of his recent surgery. I think it's possible, but not the most likely outcome.

3. I don't believe that they can sit back and expect to win 90 games, just that Samardzija doing well is not "a key" to the Cubs success this year.

4. The Cubs are in this position because Hendry made some pretty stupid signings and the Cubs endured a lot of injuries and bad performances from key players last season.

5. The "position" they were in prior to last year (winning the division and making the playoffs) is about what I would expect from a $130-140 million payroll team. About. And that's on Hendry.

6. Replacing Harden's 141 innings (9-9, 4.08) isn't that tough. They get close to that from Marshall, and with Grabow and Gorz on the roster, it becomes a lot easier for the Cubs to use Marshall in the rotation.

7. I agree with you. I think it is smart for a GM to be prepared for things not working out perfectly. But, in reality (unless you're the Yankees), resources are finite. So at some point, especially when your GM is imperfect and has made some really dumb signings, you're going to come down to making a tough decision about whether to spend the money on Ben Sheets or not. To that end, in reality, you eventually have to consider what is likely to happen because that's what is going to determine where to spend your owner's money. And I just don't see how it is likely for the Cubs success to come down to the ability of Jeff Samardzija to be a successful 5th starter.

[Guancous]

What if all those things don't go wrong? What if the Cubs aren't suddenly left with only 2 dependable starters, but have 4 after Lilly comes back in May?

 

 

As of now they are last year's team, minus Harden and Bradley, plus Byrd and Silva. I don't see how that is even remotely an improvement. And last year's team was not an improvement from the 2008 team. (minus Wood, DeRosa and Edmonds, plus Gregg, Bradley and Miles).

 

They need to replace Harden just to stay even with last year's rotation.

 

I don't see why a $140m payroll team has to go into a season hoping a bunch of stuff will work out so they can have a chance. This team should be in a position where a bunch of things would have to go wrong to think they don't have a chance, and that's not the case.

 

The only way a team goes into a season "where a bunch of things would have to go wrong to think they don't have a chance" is when the team is the Yankees or Red Sox with their luxury-tax budgets. Most teams don't have All Stars at every position.

 

Most contenders don't have Carlos Silva at that contract. Think about the 2009-2011 production of Bradley/Silva compared to if they signed Ernie Banks out of retirement. I fully expect Silva to give up any positive gains Bradley had last year. I'm expecting a 2009 Heilman level of performance.

[CUBZ99]

Replacing Harden's 141 innings (9-9, 4.08) isn't that tough. They get close to that from Marshall, and with Grabow and Gorz on the roster, it becomes a lot easier for the Cubs to use Marshall in the rotation.

 

Good point, I think most of us remember the dominant Harden and forget that he had been regressing.

[jersey cubs fan]

Replacing Harden's 141 innings (9-9, 4.08) isn't that tough. They get close to that from Marshall, and with Grabow and Gorz on the roster, it becomes a lot easier for the Cubs to use Marshall in the rotation.

 

Good point, I think most of us remember the dominant Harden and forget that he had been regressing.

 

Harden was good last year, the Cubs are worse off without him.

[Transmogrified Tiger]

Replacing Harden's 141 innings (9-9, 4.08) isn't that tough. They get close to that from Marshall, and with Grabow and Gorz on the roster, it becomes a lot easier for the Cubs to use Marshall in the rotation.

 

Good point, I think most of us remember the dominant Harden and forget that he had been regressing.

 

Harden was good last year, the Cubs are worse off without him.

 

He put up a 4.35 FIP and sub-2 WAR. They are projected to get that from that spot with Marshall, Gorzelanny, and maybe even Samardzija.

 

EDIT: Even Silva's only projected to be marginally worse. [insert SSR's caveat about hittable pitchers and projections here]

[Cubswin11]

Replacing Harden's 141 innings (9-9, 4.08) isn't that tough. They get close to that from Marshall, and with Grabow and Gorz on the roster, it becomes a lot easier for the Cubs to use Marshall in the rotation.

 

Good point, I think most of us remember the dominant Harden and forget that he had been regressing.

Harden put up a line of 4-3, 2.55 ERA, 12 GS , 67 IP, 1.119 WHIP, 11.8 SO/9 in the second half last year. We don't have anyone on the roster that is going to replace Harden (Gorzo, Silva, Samardzija, Marshall) that is capable of pitching that well over the course of a half a season

[CUBZ99]

Replacing Harden's 141 innings (9-9, 4.08) isn't that tough. They get close to that from Marshall, and with Grabow and Gorz on the roster, it becomes a lot easier for the Cubs to use Marshall in the rotation.

 

Good point, I think most of us remember the dominant Harden and forget that he had been regressing.

 

Harden was good last year, the Cubs are worse off without him.

 

Based on what? He only pitched part of the year, he rarely went deep into a game, his ERA was not great and his WHIP was the same as Gorz's. I don't think Harden was terrible last year, but I do not think the Cubs are going to be devastated by his loss.

[CUBZ99]

Replacing Harden's 141 innings (9-9, 4.08) isn't that tough. They get close to that from Marshall, and with Grabow and Gorz on the roster, it becomes a lot easier for the Cubs to use Marshall in the rotation.

 

Good point, I think most of us remember the dominant Harden and forget that he had been regressing.

Harden put up a line of 4-3, 2.55 ERA, 12 GS , 67 IP, 1.119 WHIP, 11.8 SO/9 in the second half last year. We don't have anyone on the roster that is going to replace Harden (Gorzo, Silva, Samardzija, Marshall) that is capable of pitching that well over the course of a half a season

 

In April Soriano OPS'd .955 and then he OPS'd .992 in August. So for over 25% of his AB's he was a .950+ OPS hitter. That doesn't mean that Soriano had a good year or that he is irreplaceable.

[Cubswin11]

Replacing Harden's 141 innings (9-9, 4.08) isn't that tough. They get close to that from Marshall, and with Grabow and Gorz on the roster, it becomes a lot easier for the Cubs to use Marshall in the rotation.

 

Good point, I think most of us remember the dominant Harden and forget that he had been regressing.

Harden put up a line of 4-3, 2.55 ERA, 12 GS , 67 IP, 1.119 WHIP, 11.8 SO/9 in the second half last year. We don't have anyone on the roster that is going to replace Harden (Gorzo, Silva, Samardzija, Marshall) that is capable of pitching that well over the course of a half a season

 

In April Soriano OPS'd .955 and then he OPS'd .992 in August. So for over 25% of his AB's he was a .950+ OPS hitter. That doesn't mean that Soriano had a good year or that he is irreplaceable.

That doesn't make sense and is a week argument. Half of Harden's season last year was very good not two random months throughout the season like you present with Soriano. I am not saying Harden is irreplaceable, just that the guys we are attempting to replace him with is going to make him more irreplaceable as none of them will be able to be as good as Harden was in the second half last year.

[CUBZ99]

Replacing Harden's 141 innings (9-9, 4.08) isn't that tough. They get close to that from Marshall, and with Grabow and Gorz on the roster, it becomes a lot easier for the Cubs to use Marshall in the rotation.

 

Good point, I think most of us remember the dominant Harden and forget that he had been regressing.

Harden put up a line of 4-3, 2.55 ERA, 12 GS , 67 IP, 1.119 WHIP, 11.8 SO/9 in the second half last year. We don't have anyone on the roster that is going to replace Harden (Gorzo, Silva, Samardzija, Marshall) that is capable of pitching that well over the course of a half a season

 

In April Soriano OPS'd .955 and then he OPS'd .992 in August. So for over 25% of his AB's he was a .950+ OPS hitter. That doesn't mean that Soriano had a good year or that he is irreplaceable.

That doesn't make sense and is a week argument. Half of Harden's season last year was very good not two random months throughout the season like you present with Soriano. I am not saying Harden is irreplaceable, just that the guys we are attempting to replace him with is going to make him more irreplaceable as none of them will be able to be as good as Harden was in the second half last year.

 

I'm glad you see how weak of an argument it is to try to cherry pick stats or parts of a season to make a player look better. In regard to Harden last year it is just as easy to point out more than half of Harden's IP were at Wrigley Field where he had an ERA to the tune of 5.99.

[Cubswin11]

 

Good point, I think most of us remember the dominant Harden and forget that he had been regressing.

Harden put up a line of 4-3, 2.55 ERA, 12 GS , 67 IP, 1.119 WHIP, 11.8 SO/9 in the second half last year. We don't have anyone on the roster that is going to replace Harden (Gorzo, Silva, Samardzija, Marshall) that is capable of pitching that well over the course of a half a season

 

In April Soriano OPS'd .955 and then he OPS'd .992 in August. So for over 25% of his AB's he was a .950+ OPS hitter. That doesn't mean that Soriano had a good year or that he is irreplaceable.

That doesn't make sense and is a week argument. Half of Harden's season last year was very good not two random months throughout the season like you present with Soriano. I am not saying Harden is irreplaceable, just that the guys we are attempting to replace him with is going to make him more irreplaceable as none of them will be able to be as good as Harden was in the second half last year.

 

I'm glad you see how weak of an argument it is to try to cherry pick stats or parts of a season to make a player look better. In regard to Harden last year it is just as easy to point out more than half of Harden's IP were at Wrigley Field where he had an ERA to the tune of 5.99.

I am not saying Harden is this irreplaceable cog that will take the Cubs decades to find a replacement to. Take out the cherry picked numbers, 1st half/2nd half whatever, and Gorzo/Samardzija/Silva will have a hard time putting up the numbers Harden did last year in a full "bad" season. Like I stated before it's not that Harden is irreplaceable that makes his loss hurt (he certainly is replaceable) it's the pitchers we are attempting to replace him with that will give us an overall worse rotation next year without a significant addition.

[dew1679666265]

Replacing Harden's 141 innings (9-9, 4.08) isn't that tough. They get close to that from Marshall, and with Grabow and Gorz on the roster, it becomes a lot easier for the Cubs to use Marshall in the rotation.

 

Good point, I think most of us remember the dominant Harden and forget that he had been regressing.

Harden put up a line of 4-3, 2.55 ERA, 12 GS , 67 IP, 1.119 WHIP, 11.8 SO/9 in the second half last year. We don't have anyone on the roster that is going to replace Harden (Gorzo, Silva, Samardzija, Marshall) that is capable of pitching that well over the course of a half a season

 

On the flipside, Harden had a 5.47 ERA with a 1.541 WHIP and a 10.1 K/9 in the first half (seven more innings too). Most any of our starters can better those numbers significantly.

[Cubswin11]

Replacing Harden's 141 innings (9-9, 4.08) isn't that tough. They get close to that from Marshall, and with Grabow and Gorz on the roster, it becomes a lot easier for the Cubs to use Marshall in the rotation.

 

Good point, I think most of us remember the dominant Harden and forget that he had been regressing.

Harden put up a line of 4-3, 2.55 ERA, 12 GS , 67 IP, 1.119 WHIP, 11.8 SO/9 in the second half last year. We don't have anyone on the roster that is going to replace Harden (Gorzo, Silva, Samardzija, Marshall) that is capable of pitching that well over the course of a half a season

 

On the flipside, Harden had a 5.47 ERA with a 1.541 WHIP and a 10.1 K/9 in the first half (seven more innings too). Most any of our starters can better those numbers significantly.

 

Not the guys who are the top candidates to replace him.

 

Carlos Silva career as a starter: 52-63, 4.90 ERA, 159 GS, 1.410 WHIP, 3.6 K/9

Jeff Samardzija career as starter MLB (sample size): 0-2, 10.80 ERA, 2 GS, 1.680 WHIP, 7.6 K/9

Jeff Samardzija overall MLB pitching stats (62 IP, 46 G): 2-3, 5.20 ERA, 1.604 WHIP, 6.6 K/9

Jeff Samardzija MILB career stats (71 of 77 games as a starter): 20-25, 4.28 ERA, 71 GS, 1.447 WHIP, 5.7 K/9

Tom Gorzelanny career as starter: 26-27, 4.78 ERA, 72 GS, 1.500 WHIP, 6.2 K/9

 

 

Silva and Gorzo yearly logs as starters:

 

Silva (2009): 1-3, 8.48 ERA, 6 GS, 28.2 IP, 1.640 WHIP, 3.1 K/9

Silva (2008): 4-15, 6.46 ERA, 28 GS, 153 IP, 1.598 WHIP, 4.1 K/9

Silva (2007): 13-14, 4.19 ERA, 33 GS, 202 IP, 1.312 WHIP, 4 K/9

Silva (2006): 11-15, 6.13 ERA, 31 GS, 173.1 IP, 1.546 WHIP, 3.4 K/9

Silva (2005): 9-8, 3.44 ERA, 27 GS, 188.1 IP, 1.173 WHIP, 3.4 K/9

Silva (2004): 14-8, 4.21 ERA, 33 GS, 203 IP, 1.429 WHIP, 3.4 K/9

 

Gorzelanny (2009): 4-2, 5.40 ERA, 7 GS, 31.2 IP, 1.421 WHIP, 10.2 K/9

Gorzelanny (2008): 6-9, 6.66 ERA, 21 GS, 105.1 IP, 1.804 WHIP, 5.7 K/9

Gorzelanny (2007): 14-10, 3.88 ERA, 32 GS, 201.2 IP, 1.398 WHIP, 6 K/9

Gorzelanny (2006): 2-5, 3.79 ERA, 11 GS, 61.2 IP, 1.315 WHIP, 5.8 K/9

[CubsWin]

Replacing Harden's 141 innings (9-9, 4.08) isn't that tough. They get close to that from Marshall, and with Grabow and Gorz on the roster, it becomes a lot easier for the Cubs to use Marshall in the rotation.

 

Good point, I think most of us remember the dominant Harden and forget that he had been regressing.

Harden put up a line of 4-3, 2.55 ERA, 12 GS , 67 IP, 1.119 WHIP, 11.8 SO/9 in the second half last year. We don't have anyone on the roster that is going to replace Harden (Gorzo, Silva, Samardzija, Marshall) that is capable of pitching that well over the course of a half a season

 

On the flipside, Harden had a 5.47 ERA with a 1.541 WHIP and a 10.1 K/9 in the first half (seven more innings too). Most any of our starters can better those numbers significantly.

 

Not the guys who are the top candidates to replace him.

 

Carlos Silva career as a starter: 52-63, 4.90 ERA, 159 GS, 1.410 WHIP, 3.6 K/9

Jeff Samardzija career as starter MLB (sample size): 0-2, 10.80 ERA, 2 GS, 1.680 WHIP, 7.6 K/9

Jeff Samardzija overall MLB pitching stats (62 IP, 46 G): 2-3, 5.20 ERA, 1.604 WHIP, 6.6 K/9

Jeff Samardzija MILB career stats (71 of 77 games as a starter): 20-25, 4.28 ERA, 71 GS, 1.447 WHIP, 5.7 K/9

Tom Gorzelanny career as starter: 26-27, 4.78 ERA, 72 GS, 1.500 WHIP, 6.2 K/9

 

 

Silva and Gorzo yearly logs as starters:

 

Silva (2009): 1-3, 8.48 ERA, 6 GS, 28.2 IP, 1.640 WHIP, 3.1 K/9

Silva (2008): 4-15, 6.46 ERA, 28 GS, 153 IP, 1.598 WHIP, 4.1 K/9

Silva (2007): 13-14, 4.19 ERA, 33 GS, 202 IP, 1.312 WHIP, 4 K/9

Silva (2006): 11-15, 6.13 ERA, 31 GS, 173.1 IP, 1.546 WHIP, 3.4 K/9

Silva (2005): 9-8, 3.44 ERA, 27 GS, 188.1 IP, 1.173 WHIP, 3.4 K/9

Silva (2004): 14-8, 4.21 ERA, 33 GS, 203 IP, 1.429 WHIP, 3.4 K/9

 

Gorzelanny (2009): 4-2, 5.40 ERA, 7 GS, 31.2 IP, 1.421 WHIP, 10.2 K/9

Gorzelanny (2008): 6-9, 6.66 ERA, 21 GS, 105.1 IP, 1.804 WHIP, 5.7 K/9

Gorzelanny (2007): 14-10, 3.88 ERA, 32 GS, 201.2 IP, 1.398 WHIP, 6 K/9

Gorzelanny (2006): 2-5, 3.79 ERA, 11 GS, 61.2 IP, 1.315 WHIP, 5.8 K/9

It seems odd to me that you wouldn't include Marshall in that group...

 

If I were a betting man, I'd bet on Marshall starting more games next season than Silva. And the only way I think I would be wrong is if Silva somehow turns things around and actually deserves to be starting more games in which case, the Cubs would be doing okay.

[Cubswin11]

 

Good point, I think most of us remember the dominant Harden and forget that he had been regressing.

Harden put up a line of 4-3, 2.55 ERA, 12 GS , 67 IP, 1.119 WHIP, 11.8 SO/9 in the second half last year. We don't have anyone on the roster that is going to replace Harden (Gorzo, Silva, Samardzija, Marshall) that is capable of pitching that well over the course of a half a season

 

On the flipside, Harden had a 5.47 ERA with a 1.541 WHIP and a 10.1 K/9 in the first half (seven more innings too). Most any of our starters can better those numbers significantly.

 

Not the guys who are the top candidates to replace him.

 

Carlos Silva career as a starter: 52-63, 4.90 ERA, 159 GS, 1.410 WHIP, 3.6 K/9

Jeff Samardzija career as starter MLB (sample size): 0-2, 10.80 ERA, 2 GS, 1.680 WHIP, 7.6 K/9

Jeff Samardzija overall MLB pitching stats (62 IP, 46 G): 2-3, 5.20 ERA, 1.604 WHIP, 6.6 K/9

Jeff Samardzija MILB career stats (71 of 77 games as a starter): 20-25, 4.28 ERA, 71 GS, 1.447 WHIP, 5.7 K/9

Tom Gorzelanny career as starter: 26-27, 4.78 ERA, 72 GS, 1.500 WHIP, 6.2 K/9

 

 

Silva and Gorzo yearly logs as starters:

 

Silva (2009): 1-3, 8.48 ERA, 6 GS, 28.2 IP, 1.640 WHIP, 3.1 K/9

Silva (2008): 4-15, 6.46 ERA, 28 GS, 153 IP, 1.598 WHIP, 4.1 K/9

Silva (2007): 13-14, 4.19 ERA, 33 GS, 202 IP, 1.312 WHIP, 4 K/9

Silva (2006): 11-15, 6.13 ERA, 31 GS, 173.1 IP, 1.546 WHIP, 3.4 K/9

Silva (2005): 9-8, 3.44 ERA, 27 GS, 188.1 IP, 1.173 WHIP, 3.4 K/9

Silva (2004): 14-8, 4.21 ERA, 33 GS, 203 IP, 1.429 WHIP, 3.4 K/9

 

Gorzelanny (2009): 4-2, 5.40 ERA, 7 GS, 31.2 IP, 1.421 WHIP, 10.2 K/9

Gorzelanny (2008): 6-9, 6.66 ERA, 21 GS, 105.1 IP, 1.804 WHIP, 5.7 K/9

Gorzelanny (2007): 14-10, 3.88 ERA, 32 GS, 201.2 IP, 1.398 WHIP, 6 K/9

Gorzelanny (2006): 2-5, 3.79 ERA, 11 GS, 61.2 IP, 1.315 WHIP, 5.8 K/9

It seems odd to me that you wouldn't include Marshall in that group...

 

If I were a betting man, I'd bet on Marshall starting more games next season than Silva. And the only way I think I would be wrong is if Silva somehow turns things around and actually deserves to be starting more games in which case, the Cubs would be doing okay.

I think Marshall will end up in the bullpen to provide long relief work, emergency spot starts, and be another lefty option. Silva is going to start the season in the rotation most likely given his salary... Then probably a toss up between Gorzo and Shark for the #5 spot to replace Lilly. Marshall has had more success in the bullpen and looked pretty good last year coming out and I think he stays there.

[17 Seconds]

Replacing Harden's 141 innings (9-9, 4.08) isn't that tough. They get close to that from Marshall, and with Grabow and Gorz on the roster, it becomes a lot easier for the Cubs to use Marshall in the rotation.

 

Good point, I think most of us remember the dominant Harden and forget that he had been regressing.

Harden put up a line of 4-3, 2.55 ERA, 12 GS , 67 IP, 1.119 WHIP, 11.8 SO/9 in the second half last year. We don't have anyone on the roster that is going to replace Harden (Gorzo, Silva, Samardzija, Marshall) that is capable of pitching that well over the course of a half a season

 

In April Soriano OPS'd .955 and then he OPS'd .992 in August. So for over 25% of his AB's he was a .950+ OPS hitter. That doesn't mean that Soriano had a good year or that he is irreplaceable.

That doesn't make sense and is a week argument. Half of Harden's season last year was very good not two random months throughout the season like you present with Soriano. I am not saying Harden is irreplaceable, just that the guys we are attempting to replace him with is going to make him more irreplaceable as none of them will be able to be as good as Harden was in the second half last year.

 

you don't really make sense. you're picking out the half year where he was awesome and not pointing out that he was equally bad the other half.

 

picking out half a season when you're talking about replacing production is dumb. look at his overall numbers, because his first half affected the team just as much as his second half.

[A-Cal]

dodgers

rangers

mariners

mets

 

I see the mariners doing it for some reason, but i am almost certainly wrong. For some reason, Ben's destination is incredibly hard to call. Too bad it won't be with the Cubs.

[mul21]

Harden put up a line of 4-3, 2.55 ERA, 12 GS , 67 IP, 1.119 WHIP, 11.8 SO/9 in the second half last year. We don't have anyone on the roster that is going to replace Harden (Gorzo, Silva, Samardzija, Marshall) that is capable of pitching that well over the course of a half a season

 

So a guy who averaged about 5 1/2 IP per start and made about 2/3 of the starts a reliable guy would make is irreplaceable? I agree that the stats are nice, but the extra strain on the pen plus having to find spot starters when he can't take the mound is just another burden.

[Splendid Splinter]

you don't really make sense. you're picking out the half year where he was awesome and not pointing out that he was equally bad the other half.

 

picking out half a season when you're talking about replacing production is dumb. look at his overall numbers, because his first half affected the team just as much as his second half.

 

I think he picked the 2nd half because that was more in line of what Harden actually does (compared to his career) and that his first half was more of an outlier or flukish. Myself though, I mostly look at the whole season first and see if there's anything flukey about it. Like it wouldn't surprise me if Harden pitch like 150 IP and has a 3.20 ERA with the Rangers. That's a hard thing to replace that could've been on our roster still (assuming that he could've still been had at the time). That's the thing with Harden. I don't think you'll see another 4+ ERA season from him in awhile. It's almost better odds that he'll put a 2-something ERA than a 4+ ERA season.

 

Anyway, even if you look at the whole season, Harden had a bad year for him and still be better than any of the options we have now. I'm just saying though. I don't think pitching is going to be that big of a problem for Cubs. There's always Jon Garland out there as a FA who can solidify the back end of the rotation for the Cubs or they can always trade for a SP during the season if something doesn't work out. I think the pitching will be fine if Fontenot/Soriano/Soto all at least improves their numbers a little bit. They got enough pitching that they can just throw everything at the wall and hope something sticks. I'm in the minority that I hope Thomas Diamond got his stuff together/keep his control in check and be a dark horse candidate for the rotation.

[dew1679666265]

Not the guys who are the top candidates to replace him.

 

Carlos Silva career as a starter: 52-63, 4.90 ERA, 159 GS, 1.410 WHIP, 3.6 K/9

Jeff Samardzija career as starter MLB (sample size): 0-2, 10.80 ERA, 2 GS, 1.680 WHIP, 7.6 K/9

Jeff Samardzija overall MLB pitching stats (62 IP, 46 G): 2-3, 5.20 ERA, 1.604 WHIP, 6.6 K/9

Jeff Samardzija MILB career stats (71 of 77 games as a starter): 20-25, 4.28 ERA, 71 GS, 1.447 WHIP, 5.7 K/9

Tom Gorzelanny career as starter: 26-27, 4.78 ERA, 72 GS, 1.500 WHIP, 6.2 K/9

 

 

Silva and Gorzo yearly logs as starters:

 

Silva (2009): 1-3, 8.48 ERA, 6 GS, 28.2 IP, 1.640 WHIP, 3.1 K/9

Silva (2008): 4-15, 6.46 ERA, 28 GS, 153 IP, 1.598 WHIP, 4.1 K/9

Silva (2007): 13-14, 4.19 ERA, 33 GS, 202 IP, 1.312 WHIP, 4 K/9

Silva (2006): 11-15, 6.13 ERA, 31 GS, 173.1 IP, 1.546 WHIP, 3.4 K/9

Silva (2005): 9-8, 3.44 ERA, 27 GS, 188.1 IP, 1.173 WHIP, 3.4 K/9

Silva (2004): 14-8, 4.21 ERA, 33 GS, 203 IP, 1.429 WHIP, 3.4 K/9

 

Gorzelanny (2009): 4-2, 5.40 ERA, 7 GS, 31.2 IP, 1.421 WHIP, 10.2 K/9

Gorzelanny (2008): 6-9, 6.66 ERA, 21 GS, 105.1 IP, 1.804 WHIP, 5.7 K/9

Gorzelanny (2007): 14-10, 3.88 ERA, 32 GS, 201.2 IP, 1.398 WHIP, 6 K/9

Gorzelanny (2006): 2-5, 3.79 ERA, 11 GS, 61.2 IP, 1.315 WHIP, 5.8 K/9

 

Half a run is somewhat significant and two of our potential starters have been half a run better than Harden's first half. Gorzo's been inconsistent, but if he can give us anything close to 2006 or 2007 numbers, he'll be far more productive than Harden's first half. Also, Rothschild has said that Shark's secondary pitches are finally coming around. If that's the case, I'll be very interested to see how he does. I'm not betting on him being significantly better, but I tend to trust Larry when he says he's noticed something with one of our pitchers.

[weis21]

With the Cubs having two off days in the first two weeks, wouldn't they just go with a four-man rotation for that time period? Hopefully that would mean we'd only need Gorzo/Shark/etc. to start perhaps three games before Lilly is back.

 

In theory, but they rarely end up doing that. And leaning heavy on the "big boys" early isn't ideal either, as those guys usually don't go long in games anyway, and need to be conserved a bit. And wouldn't they want to give Wells rest when they can, considering his lack of 200 inningness?

 

Lou has proven that he is pretty good with pitch counts during his tenure (at least with starters). I would trust him to place those guys on a somewhat strict pitch count and relinquish the rest of the game to the relievers. And, if JH has provided depth at one position, it's relievers.

 

As for Lilly, everything I've read states that he'll be ready to join the rotation by season's second month. He's not a power pitcher, so I have faith that even if he is a little slow to regain last year's form, he'll be a decent option. It's a roll of the dice, but I doubt he'll be a liability, even if he misses the first month.

[17 Seconds]

you don't really make sense. you're picking out the half year where he was awesome and not pointing out that he was equally bad the other half.

 

picking out half a season when you're talking about replacing production is dumb. look at his overall numbers, because his first half affected the team just as much as his second half.

 

I think he picked the 2nd half because that was more in line of what Harden actually does (compared to his career) and that his first half was more of an outlier or flukish.

 

i know, but weren't they talking about what they'd have to replace for last year's 83 win team? i thought that was the context of the conversation.... how the cubs would improve/downgrade from last year's team, meaning only harden's 2009 stats would be relevant.

[CubsWin]

 

Not the guys who are the top candidates to replace him.

 

Carlos Silva career as a starter: 52-63, 4.90 ERA, 159 GS, 1.410 WHIP, 3.6 K/9

Jeff Samardzija career as starter MLB (sample size): 0-2, 10.80 ERA, 2 GS, 1.680 WHIP, 7.6 K/9

Jeff Samardzija overall MLB pitching stats (62 IP, 46 G): 2-3, 5.20 ERA, 1.604 WHIP, 6.6 K/9

Jeff Samardzija MILB career stats (71 of 77 games as a starter): 20-25, 4.28 ERA, 71 GS, 1.447 WHIP, 5.7 K/9

Tom Gorzelanny career as starter: 26-27, 4.78 ERA, 72 GS, 1.500 WHIP, 6.2 K/9

 

 

Silva and Gorzo yearly logs as starters:

 

Silva (2009): 1-3, 8.48 ERA, 6 GS, 28.2 IP, 1.640 WHIP, 3.1 K/9

Silva (2008): 4-15, 6.46 ERA, 28 GS, 153 IP, 1.598 WHIP, 4.1 K/9

Silva (2007): 13-14, 4.19 ERA, 33 GS, 202 IP, 1.312 WHIP, 4 K/9

Silva (2006): 11-15, 6.13 ERA, 31 GS, 173.1 IP, 1.546 WHIP, 3.4 K/9

Silva (2005): 9-8, 3.44 ERA, 27 GS, 188.1 IP, 1.173 WHIP, 3.4 K/9

Silva (2004): 14-8, 4.21 ERA, 33 GS, 203 IP, 1.429 WHIP, 3.4 K/9

 

Gorzelanny (2009): 4-2, 5.40 ERA, 7 GS, 31.2 IP, 1.421 WHIP, 10.2 K/9

Gorzelanny (2008): 6-9, 6.66 ERA, 21 GS, 105.1 IP, 1.804 WHIP, 5.7 K/9

Gorzelanny (2007): 14-10, 3.88 ERA, 32 GS, 201.2 IP, 1.398 WHIP, 6 K/9

Gorzelanny (2006): 2-5, 3.79 ERA, 11 GS, 61.2 IP, 1.315 WHIP, 5.8 K/9

It seems odd to me that you wouldn't include Marshall in that group...

 

If I were a betting man, I'd bet on Marshall starting more games next season than Silva. And the only way I think I would be wrong is if Silva somehow turns things around and actually deserves to be starting more games in which case, the Cubs would be doing okay.

I think Marshall will end up in the bullpen to provide long relief work, emergency spot starts, and be another lefty option. Silva is going to start the season in the rotation most likely given his salary... Then probably a toss up between Gorzo and Shark for the #5 spot to replace Lilly. Marshall has had more success in the bullpen and looked pretty good last year coming out and I think he stays there.

I get that you think Marshall will be in the pen, what I don't get is why you think that. You just laid out all the numbers. Do you think the guys in the Cubs front office aren't aware of the same numbers you are? Marshall has done a better job starting than all of those guys. Most of Marshall's time in the pen was before the Cubs acquired two more left-handed pitchers, Grabow and Gorzelanny. They are now freed up to consider Marshall for the rotation. They will likely go with whoever is pitching the best coming out of Spring Training and there is no reason why the Cubs wouldn't include Marshall in that competition considering the numbers you just went over.

 

So it appears the stats and the logic of the situation point to Marshall having just as good of a chance of being that 5th starter than any, maybe a better chance. And when you look at the numbers, it is likely that Marshall (or if someone is pitching better than Marshall is then that guy) will put up similar production to what Harden did last season. Which means that letting Harden go and not getting Sheets to replace him will likely not spell the end of the Cubs post-season chances before the season even starts.

[Backtobanks]

I'm waiting for someone to post all of the #4 and #5 starters on the other teams we play in April that should cause us to automatically assume we don't have a chance of winning any of those games.

[CubsWin]

To those who don't think Marshall will be in the competition to make the rotation out of Spring Training...

 

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