Bruce Levine: Cubs Won't Offer Harden Arbitration

[CaliforniaRaisin]

Bruce Levine[/url]"]The most likely scenario in the offseason will have the team allowing right-hander Rich Harden to test the free-agent waters. The Cubs will not offer arbitration to Harden, who was their top strikeout pitcher in 2009.

 

Hopefully Levine's making a (poor) prediction. In the Grabow thread, it was mentioned that Bruce said they hadn't decided whether to offer him arbitration or not.

[wade]

Hendry's aversion to arbitration hearings is really stupid.

[erik316wttn]

Of course not. That move makes sense, which is precisely why Hendry won't do it.

[E.J.]

There's no reason why Hendry shouldn't offer him arbitration.

[CubColtPacer]

There's no reason why Hendry shouldn't offer him arbitration.

 

There are absolutely reasons why they shouldn't offer him arbitration.

 

I happen to think the reward is greater than the risk (because I think the risk is pretty low of him accepting), but there is definitely risk involved and potentially serious risk.

[Tarver]

Par for the course.

[inari]

Man, I don't get it. Harden is the only thing resembling an ace we've got.

[17 Seconds]

hahahaahahahahahahh

[erik316wttn]

Man, I don't get it. Harden is the only thing resembling an ace we've got.

 

Exactly. It's like someone else on here posted on another thread: We have 3 solid #2 guys in Demp, Lilly, and Z, but not an ace. When he's on, he's one of the top 10 pitchers in baseball. Unless we can find a better option in Free Agency, we need to offer him arb.

[Irrelevant Dude]

It sure doesn't help build a minor league system when the GM loses out on draft picks by mismanaging arbitration.

[Tim M]

Man, I don't get it. Harden is the only thing resembling an ace we've got.

 

He was our worst starter last year.

[SouthSideRyan]

The Cubs are a colossally dumb organization.

[Tyrant]

Haven't the Cubs learned anything from not offering Kerry Wood arbitration? What a total disaster that turned out to be for the franchise.

[Guest]

We are going to need Harden's money to replace Milton Bradley in RF.

 

[Banedon]

Sometimes I wonder why I'm a fan of this team.

[SouthSideRyan]

Haven't the Cubs learned anything from not offering Kerry Wood arbitration? What a total disaster that turned out to be for the franchise.

 

Agreed. We'd have either received draft picks or (more likely) had Kerry Wood for one year as a decent closer, which in turn means no Kevin Gregg, and possibly no big contract for Dempster putting us in better financial shape this year

[RynoRules]

I am so done with Hendry. I know most of you reached that point a while ago. I've arrived.

 

Unless he uses the money he saves on Harden, Gregg, and in trading Bradley for (hopefully) prospects to get a true impact bat, I am going to start working with the "Fire Hendry" crowd. There have been some real f-up's of late.

[Little Slide Rooter]

We just need to accept that Hendry knows what hes doing and he has a plan. The pre 2009 off season moves were all for the greater good.

[CUBZ99]

We just need to accept that Hendry knows what hes doing and he has a plan. The pre 2009 off season moves were all for the greater good.

 

I agree, I think he simply didn't want the players and fans to get greedy and expect to make the playoffs every year. Now that the team has missed the playoffs, next year they will try harder and be an overall grittier club.

[jersey cubs fan]

There's no reason why Hendry shouldn't offer him arbitration.

 

There are absolutely reasons why they shouldn't offer him arbitration.

 

I happen to think the reward is greater than the risk (because I think the risk is pretty low of him accepting), but there is definitely risk involved and potentially serious risk.

 

Risk isn't a reason not to offer arbitration. There's risk in every contract you hand out. One year of maybe $10m is not that much risk in the grand scheme of things. And the potential reward is much higher.

[Cubswin11]

Maybe Hendry is planning on Harden being a type B with his decision to not offer arbitration. Maybe he thinks Harden will take arbitration and it's too risky to offer $10+ mil. for an injury prone pitcher when all we would get back at best would be a supplemental pick.

[CUBZ99]

There's no reason why Hendry shouldn't offer him arbitration.

 

There are absolutely reasons why they shouldn't offer him arbitration.

 

I happen to think the reward is greater than the risk (because I think the risk is pretty low of him accepting), but there is definitely risk involved and potentially serious risk.

 

Risk isn't a reason not to offer arbitration. There's risk in every contract you hand out. One year of maybe $10m is not that much risk in the grand scheme of things. And the potential reward is much higher.

 

I know I'm dreaming, but maybe Hendry is trying to negotiate a 1 year deal with Harden right now for an incentive based contract, and is trying to take arbitration off the table for those purposes. (I know it sounds crazy).

[CubColtPacer]

To spell out the reward/risk for Harden,

 

The benefits of offering Harden arbitration:

 

1. To get the pick (or picks if Harden is type A). Harden doesn't have a big chance of accepting IMO, so this is the most likely scenario of all of them.

2. If Harden accepts arbitration and then has a better year in terms of either innings or effectiveness to where he is worth the 10 or so million he will get.

 

The problems with offering Harden arbitration:

 

1. If the budget set out does not even have 10 million available. So to re-sign Harden, the Cubs would have to cut money elsewhere, and they don't know where to do that so they don't take that risk.

2. Offseason flexibility. If the budget allows for 10-15 million but no more, then the Cubs can't add anybody until Harden makes his arbitration decision. They make the decision not to offer him now so that they can make moves before the middle of December and possibly not miss out on players that can improve the team.

3. If Harden accepts and then gets hurt like 06/07.

4. If Harden accepts and has effectiveness problems. This isn't completely far-fetched. He still doesn't have a long history of being a 2 pitch pitcher and being effective (he gave up on his other pitches due to the injuries). The increased HR rate (and not very many cheap HR's among them) is problematic.

5. Harden's money does not allow the Cubs to improve the offense, and the Cubs have more options for starting pitching then they do for offensive options. Harden may be just barely worth 10 million and yet a bad investment because be replaces the innings of a decent starting pitcher and leaves big holes on offense.

6. The Cubs know he is only effective with lots of extra rest, and they determine that it is just too hard with juggling their roster to try to force that rest over a whole season.

7. Harden's medical file is worse than we think.

 

I think the number 1 of the benefits is the most likely option, and if he declines that will make most of the potential detriments inconsequential. Without knowing what the budget is though, it's hard to say that all the detriments are invalid, and there is still the potential that he would accept.

 

I would offer him arbitration, but there are definitely valid reasons not to. It's a complicated decision that factors in the budget of the team, the market for Harden, his medical file, his potential pitching effectiveness, and how the rest of the roster shakes out.

[SouthSideRyan]

#7 is the only reason I feel is a legit reason to not offer arb. The rest is worrying about unlikely scenarios/not that bad of scenarios

[Little Slide Rooter]

The only plus side I see to this is that maybe Jim really is trying to save up for that big RBI guy for Lou. Id be glad to waive good by to Harden, Gregg, Heilman, Grabow, and Reed if it meant that we coukld land Bay or Holliday. Of course Hendry would probably give them a deal that had them making 21 mil/year well into their late 40's.