BA's Southern League Top 20

[davell]

This one is out tomorrow(Thursday) and with Iowa being all that's left, our last one to actually be excited about. The Southern League was loaded this year though, so we had probably temper our expectations some. Guys that will be on this list include Jason Heyward, Mike Stanton, Desmond Jennings, Logan Morrison, Juan Francisco, Travis Wood, Jarrod Parker, and Jeremy Hellickson. I didn't look too hard to find those guys either, so I'm sure fairly sure I've forgotten some other big names as well.

 

Basically, I'm only hoping to see Cashner and Jackson here at this point. And I guess it wouldn't TOTALLY shock me if Jackson wound up as an honorable mention type here honestly. I'm hoping to see Cashner in the 12-15 range and maybe Jackson in the 17-20 area. I don't think there's a shot for Colvin or anyone else to make it on this list.

[Serge]

I think with how stacked the Southern League was this year Jackson probably won't make it. We'll probably get Cashner and then Jackson and Colvin as honorable mention types.

[bubblesdachimp]

does castro have enought AB's?

[davell]

does castro have enought AB's?

 

No. He may get mentioned as someone who would make the list if he did though.

[bubblesdachimp]

SOUTHERN LEAGUE

TOP 20 PROSPECTS

1. Jason Heyward, of, Mississippi (Braves)

2. Gordon Beckham, ss, Birmingham (White Sox)

3. Desmond Jennings, of, Montgomery (Rays)

4. Mike Stanton, of, Jacksonville (Marlins)

5. Jarrod Parker, rhp, Mobile (Diamondbacks)

6. Tyler Flowers, c, Birmingham (White Sox)

7. Logan Morrison, 1b, Jacksonville (Marlins)

8. Freddie Freeman, 1b, Misssissippi (Braves)

9. Jeremy Hellickson, rhp, Montgomery (Rays)

10. Josh Bell, 3b, Chattanooga (Dodgers)

11. Jay Jackson, rhp, Tennessee (Cubs)

12. Todd Frazier, of/2b/1b, Carolina (Reds)

13. Jonathan Lucroy, c, Huntsville (Brewers)

14. Chris Heisey, of, Carolina (Reds)

15. Dan Hudson, rhp, Birmingham (White Sox)

16. Jordan Danks, of, Birmingham (White Sox)

17. Sean West, lhp, Jacksonville (Marlins)

18. Andrew Lambo, of, Chattanooga (Dodgers)

19. Daniel Schlereth, lhp, Mobile (Diamondbacks)

20. Travis Wood, lhp, Carolina (Reds)

 

Dominguez was one of several talented prospects who would have received Top 20 consideration had he played longer in the league. That group also includes Carolina first baseman Yonder Alonso and righthander Zach Stewart, and Tennessee shortstop Starlin Castro.

[bubblesdachimp]

no mention of cashner... did he fail to have enough IP for both leagues. Interesting about Jay. all those in front of him some power prospects. I think are system might finally have some high action guys. I think he could be top 100 along with vitters castro b jax and maybe hak ju or cashner

[toonsterwu]

I am a huge Jay Jackson fan (still prefer him to Cashner, and still thinking that I'm tempted to rank him ahead of Vitters as the 2nd prospect in the system) ... but I am mildly surprised to see him ranked 11th because BA has never shown an indication to be high on him. I will be curious what they say in the chat. Could someone ask how BA viewed his change and curve this year? I'm mildly curious, as we all know he can run the fastball up there and has the plus slider.

[Guest]

11. Jay Jackson, rhp, Tennessee (Cubs)

 

Age: 21. B-T: R-R. Ht.: 6-1. Wt. 195. Drafted: Cubs '08 (9).

 

A two-way player at Furman and a ninth-round pick a year ago, Jackson looks like a steal for the Cubs.

 

Jackson has excellent arm strength and arm speed, sitting at 91-94 mph and touching 95 with his fastball. He shows the ability to spin two breaking balls, a plus curveball in the high 70s and an 83-87 mph slider that grades out as at least average. His changeup is still a work in progress but could become an average pitch down the road.

 

An excellent athlete, Jackson has fairly smooth mechanics but his command still needs work. He has a tendency to overthrow, rather than staying back in his delivery and letting his quick arm take over. He also has a tendency to drop his arm slot, which at 6-foot-1 gives him some issues with his plane to the plate.

 

"He's got a great live arm," an AL scout said. "It's just a matter of him learning how to command it, but not many guys who throw 94-95 at that age can command it yet."

 

Jackson won the SL all-star game, but he was demoted to high Class A in July for failing to comply with team policy. The Cubs promoted him to Triple-A for one start in September, when he gave up one run in six innings.

 

http://www.baseballamerica.com/online/prospects/rankings/league-top-20-prospects/2009/268969.html

[Guest]

no mention of cashner... did he fail to have enough IP for both leagues. Interesting about Jay. all those in front of him some power prospects. I think are system might finally have some high action guys. I think he could be top 100 along with vitters castro b jax and maybe hak ju or cashner

 

Cashner had enough innings to qualify. I am floored he didn't make it and Jay Jackson did.

[illiniguy]

I like Vitters, but how excited would we be if we had drafted Jason Heyward?

[toonsterwu]

that's an interesting report on Jay. Plus curve and average slider? Not that it makes much of a difference overall, but ... I remember reading midseason that his slider was still plus, and when I saw him, the slider looked good to my untrained eye.

 

Agree with Raisin. I prefer Jackson over Cashner, but I am really surprised BA didn't put Cashner anywhere.

[Transmogrified Tiger]

So Cashner goes from just behind #5 in the FSL list if he had IP, to not making the SL list. Seems like a gulf of opinion about him amongst BA's writers.

[toonsterwu]

I like Vitters, but how excited would we be if we had drafted Jason Heyward?

 

Very ... ... oh well.

[Serge]

that's an interesting report on Jay. Plus curve and average slider? Not that it makes much of a difference overall, but ... I remember reading midseason that his slider was still plus, and when I saw him, the slider looked good to my untrained eye.

 

Agree with Raisin. I prefer Jackson over Cashner, but I am really surprised BA didn't put Cashner anywhere.

 

I was always under the impression it was the other way around, plus slider and average curve.

 

Also, I'm guessing Cashner got bumped with his rough August. The SL is really deep, so one bad month could be enough to get the bump I guess.

[toonsterwu]

So Cashner goes from just behind #5 in the FSL list if he had IP, to not making the SL list. Seems like a gulf of opinion about him amongst BA's writers.

 

It might be more of indication that his inconsistent secondary pitches caught up with him in the SL with the more advanced hitters, whereas he could dominate the FSL with the fastball.

 

I'll be very curious where they slap Jay Jackson, though. I remember one comment from a BA writer that seemed to imply that not that many folks there loved BA that much, but that Badler was high on him. (I think it was Badler) Could explain why Jay made it 11th, with Badler making the list. But still ... 11th in the SL this year ... makes me think there's a good chance he gets in the top 100.

[Outshined_One]

Navin (NorthSideBaseBall): Hi Ben, thanks for the chat. Could you please touch on Andrew Cashner? I was really surprised Jay Jackson make the top 20 but not Cashner. That isn't to say I'm not a big fan of Jackson, I just thought the consensus was that Cashner is a better prospect.

 

 

Ben Badler: I put Jackson ahead of Cashner with no hesitation. Jackson's peak velocity might be 1-2 mph less than Cashner's, but his all-around stuff is better and he holds his velocity deeper into the game. Cashner mostly pitched in 5-inning stints this year, yet he still only averaged 6.7 K/9, which is below-average for the leagues he pitched in. I think Cashner's future is in the bullpen, where he would see an uptick in his strikeout rate, but Jackson has the potential to be an average to above-average major league starter. Major kudos to the Cubs for stealing him in the 9th round.

 

Well, that answered that question in a hurry.

[toonsterwu]

side note, but is Jackson's "peak velocity" all that different from Cashner's. IIRC, reports this year had Jackson being able to touch upper 90's, although he's more comfortable in the low-mid 90's. May be an issue of semantics here, so whatever.

 

anyhow, great way to start the chat off raisin. Get that question out of the way. Guess I'll be hoping for questions on Carpenter's performance in the SL and perhaps where Castro might've ranked.

[Guest]

When guessing which Tennessee shortstop would have the first question answered in the chat, I surely didn't think Darwin Barney would beat Starlin Castro:

 

Fred (Ohio): What are your thoughts on Darwen Barney?

 

Ben Badler: A few managers around the league liked him and the way he approaches the game. He's a good defender at shortstop and doesn't strike out much. His power is well below average, though, which hurt him when he moved up to Triple-A and is only going to get further exploited by major league pitching. If he gets stronger and can learn to hit for even 40 or 45 power, he could be a solid big leaguer, but that might take a few more years for him to develop.

[Outshined_One]

When guessing which Tennessee shortstop would have the first question answered in the chat, I surely didn't think Darwin Barney would beat Starlin Castro:

 

Fred (Ohio): What are your thoughts on Darwen Barney?

 

Ben Badler: A few managers around the league liked him and the way he approaches the game. He's a good defender at shortstop and doesn't strike out much. His power is well below average, though, which hurt him when he moved up to Triple-A and is only going to get further exploited by major league pitching. If he gets stronger and can learn to hit for even 40 or 45 power, he could be a solid big leaguer, but that might take a few more years for him to develop.

 

He's a future WHIFF (white hustling infielder fan favorite) in the making.

[toonsterwu]

When guessing which Tennessee shortstop would have the first question answered in the chat, I surely didn't think Darwin Barney would beat Starlin Castro:

 

Fred (Ohio): What are your thoughts on Darwen Barney?

 

Ben Badler: A few managers around the league liked him and the way he approaches the game. He's a good defender at shortstop and doesn't strike out much. His power is well below average, though, which hurt him when he moved up to Triple-A and is only going to get further exploited by major league pitching. If he gets stronger and can learn to hit for even 40 or 45 power, he could be a solid big leaguer, but that might take a few more years for him to develop.

 

He's a future WHIFF (white hustling infielder fan favorite) in the making.

 

I'd probably go HIFF, although I can't be certain right now, but I'm pretty sure he has some non-Caucasian blood in him.

[Outshined_One]

[i'd probably go HIFF, although I can't be certain right now, but I'm pretty sure he has some non-Caucasian blood in him.

 

No definitive biography out there, but it's a possibility:

 

http://blog.oregonlive.com/sportsupdates/darwinbarney.jpeg

[Guest]

Yeah, I'm pretty sure toonsterwu is right.

[davell]

Damn, I'm shocked at Cashner's exclusion AND Jackson being 11th. I kind of figured it'd be the other way around really.

 

I really don't see us getting 6 into the top 100 at any rate and considering Cashner didn't crack the top 20 here, even if he would have been pretty high on the FSL list, I think he's going to miss out. Jay could wind up near the very bottom of the top 100, but I could see us winding up with 3 just as easily as 5 or 6.

 

Castro and Vitters are locks and I think Lee makes it as well at this point. Brett Jackson is probably better than 50-50 to make it too considering the comments about him and Jay Jackson probably is right around 50-50 as well now.

 

So, in the end, I guess I'd put the percentages something like this for the Cubs as a whole:

 

2 in the top 100 100%

3 in the top 100 95%

4 in the top 100 75%

5 in the top 100 40%

6 in the top 100 15%

 

At any rate, I think our system as a whole takes a very solid step forward, up to the 12-15 range for this upcoming season and should be higher than that going forward from there.

 

I doubt any of these guys graduate in 2010, and some guys can still take big steps forward as well. Burke and Rhee could make alot of noise next year, along with someone like Na, Jung, or Kim. Either of Flaherty or LeMahieu could as well for that matter.

 

I actually could see where Vitters and Cashner are the 2 guys out of our top 6 that conceivably could see their values drop the most within the next year personally. If Vitters struggles in Daytona next year or Cashner is put into the pen being the 2 easiest ways for that to happen. Of course, Brett could struggle with K's and drop his value a good bit too, I suppose. But, for now, I'm more worried about Vitters and Cashner than him.

 

To me, the threesome of Castro, Lee, and Jay Jackson are the ones that I'm least worried about anyway. It wouldn't SHOCK me to see Castro and Jay get some love at Spring Training next season to be honest. But, I'd think that both stay in the minors for all or at least almost all of 2010.

[Guest]

I still think Cashner is more likely to make the top 100 than anyone else in the system besides Castro and Vitters. I think Brett Jackson is next most likely and Hak-Ju Lee and Jay Jackson will be on the outside looking in.

[Guest]

One last question:

 

Frankie (Casper, WY): Do Scott Elbert and Andrew Cashner best project as starters or relievers, and did either get consideration?

 

Ben Badler: I already hit on Cashner, but yes, I think both of them end up in the bullpen. Elbert was a close call to make the list, but I just worry about his durability and his command, which is why I think he ends up in the bullpen, but I think he could be an excellent reliever.

 

http://www.baseballamerica.com/online/prospects/rankings/league-top-20-prospects/2009/268978.html