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Posted
Guys, I agree...save percentage is a poor measurement to compare closers. I only was using that because champaignchris used the the "only 3 blown saves" argument to say that he wasn't bad. I was simply countering that particular argument. Gregg isn't awful. But he's not good, and he doesn't give me the warm fuzzies (I don't have stats to back that last one up...you'll just have to trust me. :) )
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Posted
Guys, I agree...save percentage is a poor measurement to compare closers. I only was using that because champaignchris used the the "only 3 blown saves" argument to say that he wasn't bad. I was simply countering that particular argument. Gregg isn't awful. But he's not good, and he doesn't give me the warm fuzzies (I don't have stats to back that last one up...you'll just have to trust me. :) )

 

I'd rather not see stats on your warm and fuzzy feelings. :D

 

I think Gregg is pretty average for a closer. I'd like to upgrade, but I just don't think most would be worth the cost.

Posted

I don't know about warm and fuzzy.... but here's what I got on Gregg........

 

Gregg                   IP    H    R   ER   BB    K   HR    PC    ST   ST%  P/IP   GB   FB   GB%  BB/9   K/9  HR/9  WHIP   ERA
04/06  vs. Houst       1.0    2    1    1    0    0    0    16    11  0.69  16.0    1    2  0.33  0.00  0.00  0.00  2.00  9.00
04/07  vs. Houst       0.3    1    0    0    1    0    0     9     3  0.33  27.0    0    1  0.00 27.00  0.00  0.00  6.00  0.00
04/10  vs. Milw        0.7    1    2    2    2    1    0    26    14  0.54  39.0    1    0  1.00 27.00 13.50  0.00  4.50 27.00
04/12  vs. Milw        1.0    2    1    1    1    2    1    22    14  0.64  22.0    1    0  1.00  9.00 18.00  9.00  3.00  9.00
04/13  vs. Colo        1.0    0    0    0    1    3    0    22    12  0.55  22.0    0    0  0.00  9.00 27.00  0.00  1.00  0.00
04/18  vs. St. L       2.0    0    0    0    0    2    0    24    17  0.71  12.0    3    1  0.75  0.00  9.00  0.00  0.00  0.00
04/22  vs. Cincy       1.0    2    1    1    0    1    1    24    15  0.63  24.0    0    2  0.00  0.00  9.00  9.00  2.00  9.00
04/26  vs. St. L       1.0    2    0    0    0    0    0     8     7  0.88   8.0    2    1  0.67  0.00  0.00  0.00  2.00  0.00
04/29  vs. Ariz        0.7    1    1    1    3    2    0    35    18  0.51  52.5    0    0  0.00 40.50 27.00  0.00  6.00 13.50
04/30  vs. Flor        2.0    0    0    0    0    1    0    15     9  0.60   7.5    0    2  0.00  0.00  4.50  0.00  0.00  0.00
05/01  vs. Flor        1.0    2    1    1    0    0    0    23    15  0.65  23.0    2    1  0.67  0.00  0.00  0.00  2.00  9.00
05/03  vs. Flor        1.0    1    0    0    0    0    0    23    14  0.61  23.0    1    2  0.33  0.00  0.00  0.00  1.00  0.00
05/04  vs. S.F.        1.0    0    0    0    1    2    0    23    14  0.61  23.0    0    1  0.00  9.00 18.00  0.00  1.00  0.00
05/06  vs. Houst       1.0    0    0    0    0    1    0    12     9  0.75  12.0    2    0  1.00  0.00  9.00  0.00  0.00  0.00
05/07  vs. Houst       0.7    1    0    0    0    1    0     9     6  0.67  13.5    0    1  0.00  0.00 13.50  0.00  1.50  0.00
05/10  vs. Milw        1.0    0    0    0    1    2    0    21    12  0.57  21.0    0    1  0.00  9.00 18.00  0.00  1.00  0.00
05/12  vs. S.D.        1.0    0    0    0    0    1    0    14    10  0.71  14.0    1    1  0.50  0.00  9.00  0.00  0.00  0.00
05/16  vs. Houst       0.0    4    4    4    0    0    2    16     9  0.56  00.0    0    0  0.00  0.00  0.00  0.00  0.00  0.00
05/19  vs. St. L       1.0    1    0    0    0    0    0    17    12  0.71  17.0    1    2  0.33  0.00  0.00  0.00  1.00  0.00
05/22  vs. S.D.        1.0    1    0    0    0    2    0    19    14  0.74  19.0    0    1  0.00  0.00 18.00  0.00  1.00  0.00
05/27  vs. Pitts       1.0    0    0    0    2    1    0    22    13  0.59  22.0    0    1  0.00 18.00  9.00  0.00  2.00  0.00
05/29  vs. L.A.        1.0    1    0    0    0    1    0    28    17  0.61  28.0    1    1  0.50  0.00  9.00  0.00  1.00  0.00
05/31  vs. L.A.        1.0    1    0    0    1    1    0    19    13  0.68  19.0    2    0  1.00  9.00  9.00  0.00  2.00  0.00
06/02  vs. Atla        1.0    1    2    2    0    2    1    23    15  0.65  23.0    0    2  0.00  0.00 18.00  9.00  1.00 18.00
06/03  vs. Atla        1.0    0    0    0    0    1    0    12     8  0.67  12.0    2    0  1.00  0.00  9.00  0.00  0.00  0.00
06/05  vs. Cincy       1.0    1    0    0    0    1    0    23    12  0.52  23.0    1    2  0.33  0.00  9.00  0.00  1.00  0.00
06/07  vs. Cincy       1.0    0    0    0    0    0    0    15     9  0.60  15.0    0    3  0.00  0.00  0.00  0.00  0.00  0.00
06/11  vs. Houst       2.0    3    0    0    0    1    0    35    24  0.69  17.5    5    0  1.00  0.00  4.50  0.00  1.50  0.00
06/13  vs. Minn        1.0    0    0    0    0    1    0    10     7  0.70  10.0    0    0  0.00  0.00  9.00  0.00  0.00  0.00
06/18  vs. CWS         1.0    1    0    0    0    0    0    11     8  0.73  11.0    2    1  0.67  0.00  0.00  0.00  1.00  0.00
06/19  vs. Cleve       1.0    1    0    0    0    1    0    33    20  0.61  33.0    1    1  0.50  0.00  9.00  0.00  1.00  0.00
06/20  vs. Cleve       1.0    0    0    0    1    0    0    16    11  0.69  16.0    3    0  1.00  9.00  0.00  0.00  1.00  0.00
06/21  vs. Cleve       0.7    0    0    0    0    1    0    12     8  0.67  18.0    1    0  1.00  0.00 13.50  0.00  0.00  0.00
06/23  vs. Detr        0.3    1    2    2    1    0    1    13     8  0.62  39.0    0    1  0.00 27.00  0.00 27.00  6.00 54.00

April                 10.7   11    6    6    8   12    2   201   120  0.60  18.8    8    9  0.47  6.75 10.13  1.69  1.78  5.06
May                   11.7   12    5    5    5   12    2   246   158  0.64  21.1   10   12  0.45  3.86  9.26  1.54  1.46  3.86
June                  11.0    8    4    4    2    8    2   203   130  0.64  18.5   15   10  0.60  1.64  6.55  1.64  0.91  3.27

Season totals         33.3   31   15   15   15   32    6   650   408  0.63  19.5   33   31  0.52  4.05  8.64  1.62  1.38  4.05

 

In terms of trends, you gotta like the direction in which he's moving.

Old-Timey Member
Posted
Guys, I agree...save percentage is a poor measurement to compare closers. I only was using that because champaignchris used the the "only 3 blown saves" argument to say that he wasn't bad. I was simply countering that particular argument. Gregg isn't awful. But he's not good, and he doesn't give me the warm fuzzies (I don't have stats to back that last one up...you'll just have to trust me. :) )

 

He ruins my evening too often. Throw out all the other stats. Ruining my evening trumps all that.

Posted
Guys, I agree...save percentage is a poor measurement to compare closers. I only was using that because champaignchris used the the "only 3 blown saves" argument to say that he wasn't bad. I was simply countering that particular argument. Gregg isn't awful. But he's not good, and he doesn't give me the warm fuzzies (I don't have stats to back that last one up...you'll just have to trust me. :) )

 

I'd rather not see stats on your warm and fuzzy feelings. :D

 

I think Gregg is pretty average for a closer. I'd like to upgrade, but I just don't think most would be worth the cost.

 

Totally agree. In no way is Gregg someone I ideally want closing, or even necessarily on the team, but given the way things have shaped up he's average and serviceable enough to avoid having to overpay for an impact midseason bullpen acquisition. Scrambling to replace him or "fix" bullpen ultimately just wastes parts that can potentially be used to help the offense, which is going to lose the Cubs far more critical games than the bullpen would over the rest of the season.

Posted
you all realize that these were the first runs he had given up in a month right?

 

Kneejerk reactions are pointless..

 

Is it really kneejerk when you hated him before he got here, hated him when he got here, and have hated him the entire time he's been here and will probably hate him long after he has left this place?

 

I think not.

 

Clearly you never gave him any chance for sucess and when he was sucessful you failed to respect him for that and just pick and choose your moments to "hate". This is why threads like these are kneejerk reactions to an emotional loss.

 

Regardless, how could you "hate" someone prior to them coming to the team you want to win? I can understand not rooting for their sucess on a different team, but now he is on the team you want to succeed. Shouldn't that be reason enough to stop the hate?

 

I understand if someone else was the preferred option for Gregg's position on the team or if you disagree with the decision to bring him to the team, but still he is on the team that you want to win. Perhaps if you were to stop hating and support him he would do better.

Posted
you all realize that these were the first runs he had given up in a month right?

 

Kneejerk reactions are pointless..

 

Is it really kneejerk when you hated him before he got here, hated him when he got here, and have hated him the entire time he's been here and will probably hate him long after he has left this place?

 

I think not.

 

Clearly you never gave him any chance for sucess and when he was sucessful you failed to respect him for that and just pick and choose your moments to "hate". This is why threads like these are kneejerk reactions to an emotional loss.

 

Regardless, how could you "hate" someone prior to them coming to the team you want to win? I can understand not rooting for their sucess on a different team, but now he is on the team you want to succeed. Shouldn't that be reason enough to stop the hate?

 

I understand if someone else was the preferred option for Gregg's position on the team or if you disagree with the decision to bring him to the team, but still he is on the team that you want to win. Perhaps if you were to stop hating and support him he would do better.

 

haha at the whole post but especially this part

Posted
Lets not pretend that 11/14 in save opportunities makes him a good closer.

 

He's 10th in the NL and would be 11th in the AL in save percentage.

 

It doesn't make him good, but nobody's arguing that - I don't think. He's a pretty average closer, no more, no less.

 

Well first, I'm not sure what I was looking at, but I was wrong...he's 12th (out of 16) in the NL in save percentage, not 10th. And would be 12th (out of 14) in the AL as well, not 11th.

 

Now maybe he's average in some other stats, but those are definitely below average.

 

 

But stats like that are almost worthless. Before one pitch yesterday, where did he rank at 11 of 13? The sample size is essentially meaningless, not to mention the fact that the stat itself isn't all that it's cracked up to be.

 

Anyway, closers don't need to be great pitchers. They just need to be able to get 3 outs without giving up 1-3 runs. Personally, I wish the role itself didn't even exist, but nothing's going to change about that.

 

 

Stats that aren't worthless for closers are: 1.Walks allowed and 2. Home Runs allowed. Those are the two things that will kill leads. If a guy walks too many people and can't keep the other team in the park, he's going to fail as a closer. You say they don't need to be great pitchers and you're right. As is evident, getting three outs without giving up 1-3 runs is easiest when guys aren't consistently blasting moon shots after you walk someone. (As Gregg did for Tuesday night). Obviously, keeping people in the park is paramount...avoiding walks a close second.

 

Perusing the stats of the MLB pitchers with 8 or more saves, you'll find only 1 or two guys who have been worse than Gregg in his combined allowance of walks and HRs. He's given up 6 HRs already. Only Brad Lidge has given up more. Several guys have given up 5, but almost none of them have walked many guys. (Bobby Jenks has only walked 5, Mo Rivera 3 and Huston Street 9) Gregg has given up 15 walks. There's guys who have walked a bunch, but only Kerry Wood and Lidge have had trouble with the gopher ball as well(a departure for Wood, who had very little trouble with the HR ball with the Cubs last year). My point is that Gregg has broken the Cardinal rules of closing much too much this year. If you look at a guy like Trevor Hoffman, he's only blown 1 save because he's walked only 4 and given up zero homers. If you're going to beat him, it takes 3 singles to get a run, and this Cubs team is as good an example as any to illustrate that doing that is a lot tougher than waiting out a walk and crushing one of several hanging sliders a guy might offer up.

 

Lookng at his career numbers, Gregg's walks are about in line with his career norms, unfortunately, but he is way high on HRs allowed compared to his previous two years as a closer. Last year he only gave up 3 in 71 IP. He's alreay given up 6 in less than half that this year.

 

I'd just like to see them get someone in that role who can make people earn their way on and keep the ball out of the seats. Not easy, but that's the key to getting the job done.

Posted
Lets not pretend that 11/14 in save opportunities makes him a good closer.

 

He's 10th in the NL and would be 11th in the AL in save percentage.

 

It doesn't make him good, but nobody's arguing that - I don't think. He's a pretty average closer, no more, no less.

 

Exactly, but it's not like when you're watching a close game, knowing that Gregg is coming in, that you feel good about that. What's going on in my head is, "Great, here comes Gregg. Let's see what happens." And you sure don't feel good about it when he's got a one-run cushion.

Posted
you all realize that these were the first runs he had given up in a month right?

 

Kneejerk reactions are pointless..

 

Is it really kneejerk when you hated him before he got here, hated him when he got here, and have hated him the entire time he's been here and will probably hate him long after he has left this place?

 

I think not.

 

Clearly you never gave him any chance for sucess and when he was sucessful you failed to respect him for that and just pick and choose your moments to "hate". This is why threads like these are kneejerk reactions to an emotional loss.

 

Regardless, how could you "hate" someone prior to them coming to the team you want to win? I can understand not rooting for their sucess on a different team, but now he is on the team you want to succeed. Shouldn't that be reason enough to stop the hate?

 

I understand if someone else was the preferred option for Gregg's position on the team or if you disagree with the decision to bring him to the team, but still he is on the team that you want to win. Perhaps if you were to stop hating and support him he would do better.

 

haha at the whole post but especially this part

 

Ha, ha to you too....perhaps you would be better to explain yourself, rather than put other people down. Seriously, who are you to laugh at people and their opinions and why so negative? Be happier in life and good things happen....its very Zen

Posted
Lets not pretend that 11/14 in save opportunities makes him a good closer.

 

He's 10th in the NL and would be 11th in the AL in save percentage.

 

It doesn't make him good, but nobody's arguing that - I don't think. He's a pretty average closer, no more, no less.

 

Exactly, but it's not like when you're watching a close game, knowing that Gregg is coming in, that you feel good about that. What's going on in my head is, "Great, here comes Gregg. Let's see what happens." And you sure don't feel good about it when he's got a one-run cushion.

 

Yeah, I certainly don't feel like we've won as Gregg strides to the mound. But, the only pitchers in the league I feel that way about are guys we couldn't obtain anyway (K-Rod, etc). Considering Gregg has only had 14 save opportunities in almost 70 games, it would seem to be a better investment of prospects to go after offensive help than bullpen - assuming we can only make one move.

Posted
Stats that aren't worthless for closers are: 1.Walks allowed and 2. Home Runs allowed. Those are the two things that will kill leads. If a guy walks too many people and can't keep the other team in the park, he's going to fail as a closer. You say they don't need to be great pitchers and you're right. As is evident, getting three outs without giving up 1-3 runs is easiest when guys aren't consistently blasting moon shots after you walk someone. (As Gregg did for Tuesday night). Obviously, keeping people in the park is paramount...avoiding walks a close second.

 

Perusing the stats of the MLB pitchers with 8 or more saves, you'll find only 1 or two guys who have been worse than Gregg in his combined allowance of walks and HRs. He's given up 6 HRs already. Only Brad Lidge has given up more. Several guys have given up 5, but almost none of them have walked many guys. (Bobby Jenks has only walked 5, Mo Rivera 3 and Huston Street 9) Gregg has given up 15 walks. There's guys who have walked a bunch, but only Kerry Wood and Lidge have had trouble with the gopher ball as well(a departure for Wood, who had very little trouble with the HR ball with the Cubs last year). My point is that Gregg has broken the Cardinal rules of closing much too much this year. If you look at a guy like Trevor Hoffman, he's only blown 1 save because he's walked only 4 and given up zero homers. If you're going to beat him, it takes 3 singles to get a run, and this Cubs team is as good an example as any to illustrate that doing that is a lot tougher than waiting out a walk and crushing one of several hanging sliders a guy might offer up.

 

Lookng at his career numbers, Gregg's walks are about in line with his career norms, unfortunately, but he is way high on HRs allowed compared to his previous two years as a closer. Last year he only gave up 3 in 71 IP. He's alreay given up 6 in less than half that this year.

 

I'd just like to see them get someone in that role who can make people earn their way on and keep the ball out of the seats. Not easy, but that's the key to getting the job done.

 

This is a very good point and definitely Gregg's weaknesses - walking guys and allowing home runs. The home runs are really the biggest issue I have with him, because nearly all his save opportunities will come with the bases empty. It's not ideal, but it's also less critical if he walks a guy or two with the bases empty.

 

The problem, though, is the home run ball. He's served up far too many this season, but that's not been his MO throughout his closing career. He gave up just three last year and seven two years ago (still too many, but on the pace he's going now he'll obliterate that number).

 

I have no idea why he's allowing more homers this season, but if he could cut back on them, he'd be much more effective.

Posted

It helps when you get to close in Pro Player. I notice you seem to concentrate exclusively on his last two years, the two he spent in Florida, but ignore he gave up 10 HR in 78 innings in Aneheim and gave up 8 in just 64 IP the year before that. He's a flyball pitcher who walks too many guys, that's just not a good combination, unless you have a terrific K rate, which he does not.

 

 

And there's no point in just talking about his "closing career". He's a relief pitcher. He's been a relief pitcher throughout his career and has plenty of pre-Florida relief pitching stats to talk about his career as a whole. Pulling out his two best years and saying that's obviously who he really is and who he will stay in his 30's just doesn't make sense. Second tier relief pitchers just aren't consistently effective. A 1-2 year period of success doesn't mean anything.

Posted
It helps when you get to close in Pro Player. I notice you seem to concentrate exclusively on his last two years, the two he spent in Florida, but ignore he gave up 10 HR in 78 innings in Aneheim and gave up 8 in just 64 IP the year before that. He's a flyball pitcher who walks too many guys, that's just not a good combination, unless you have a terrific K rate, which he does not.

 

 

And there's no point in just talking about his "closing career". He's a relief pitcher. He's been a relief pitcher throughout his career and has plenty of pre-Florida relief pitching stats to talk about his career as a whole. Pulling out his two best years and saying that's obviously who he really is and who he will stay in his 30's just doesn't make sense. Second tier relief pitchers just aren't consistently effective. A 1-2 year period of success doesn't mean anything.

 

I was focusing primarily on his closing career and that may have been a mistake. Even still, he's on pace to decimate even the 10 HR and 8 HR seasons. Maybe they're just blowing out of Wrigley at a higher pace, I'm not sure.

Posted
It helps when you get to close in Pro Player. I notice you seem to concentrate exclusively on his last two years, the two he spent in Florida, but ignore he gave up 10 HR in 78 innings in Aneheim and gave up 8 in just 64 IP the year before that. He's a flyball pitcher who walks too many guys, that's just not a good combination, unless you have a terrific K rate, which he does not.

 

 

And there's no point in just talking about his "closing career". He's a relief pitcher. He's been a relief pitcher throughout his career and has plenty of pre-Florida relief pitching stats to talk about his career as a whole. Pulling out his two best years and saying that's obviously who he really is and who he will stay in his 30's just doesn't make sense. Second tier relief pitchers just aren't consistently effective. A 1-2 year period of success doesn't mean anything.

 

I was focusing primarily on his closing career and that may have been a mistake. Even still, he's on pace to decimate even the 10 HR and 8 HR seasons. Maybe they're just blowing out of Wrigley at a higher pace, I'm not sure.

 

Maybe he's just an inconsistent second rate reliever? He had more career IP pre-closing days (oh and by the way he was relieved of that duty last year due to ineffectiveness) so I have no idea why you would only concentrate on his "closing career". He's a relief pitcher.

Posted
It helps when you get to close in Pro Player. I notice you seem to concentrate exclusively on his last two years, the two he spent in Florida, but ignore he gave up 10 HR in 78 innings in Aneheim and gave up 8 in just 64 IP the year before that. He's a flyball pitcher who walks too many guys, that's just not a good combination, unless you have a terrific K rate, which he does not.

 

 

And there's no point in just talking about his "closing career". He's a relief pitcher. He's been a relief pitcher throughout his career and has plenty of pre-Florida relief pitching stats to talk about his career as a whole. Pulling out his two best years and saying that's obviously who he really is and who he will stay in his 30's just doesn't make sense. Second tier relief pitchers just aren't consistently effective. A 1-2 year period of success doesn't mean anything.

 

I was focusing primarily on his closing career and that may have been a mistake. Even still, he's on pace to decimate even the 10 HR and 8 HR seasons. Maybe they're just blowing out of Wrigley at a higher pace, I'm not sure.

 

Maybe he's just an inconsistent second rate reliever? He had more career IP pre-closing days (oh and by the way he was relieved of that duty last year due to ineffectiveness) so I have no idea why you would only concentrate on his "closing career". He's a relief pitcher.

 

The ineffectiveness was due to injury. He asked to be sat down because he was hurt.

 

Also, before his closing days he made a few starts in each season. He wasn't particularly good in those starts and that hurt his overall numbers. I haven't looked at the home runs surrendered in those starts, but most of his other numbers get much better when you take out a couple of horrible starts and look at his relief appearances.

Posted
When the got him I felt that he was more of a replacement for Howry than being named the closer. I still feel that hes miscast as a closer,but would better as a setup guy. I think that Guzman would be a better option when healthy or Rich Harden.
Posted
It helps when you get to close in Pro Player. I notice you seem to concentrate exclusively on his last two years, the two he spent in Florida, but ignore he gave up 10 HR in 78 innings in Aneheim and gave up 8 in just 64 IP the year before that. He's a flyball pitcher who walks too many guys, that's just not a good combination, unless you have a terrific K rate, which he does not.

 

 

And there's no point in just talking about his "closing career". He's a relief pitcher. He's been a relief pitcher throughout his career and has plenty of pre-Florida relief pitching stats to talk about his career as a whole. Pulling out his two best years and saying that's obviously who he really is and who he will stay in his 30's just doesn't make sense. Second tier relief pitchers just aren't consistently effective. A 1-2 year period of success doesn't mean anything.

 

Oh, I definitely agree with what you're saying here..my point from my original post a few spots up was that Gregg violates the cardinal rules of closing, and as a result, he's probably among the 3 or 4 least effective closers in baseball. I focused on last year to give him the benefit of the doubt. I certainly noticed his shortcomings in the previous years, but when you aren't closing, you find yourself in a lot more low leverage situations that lend themselves to just getting the ball over to get the game over with. It happens with closers too, but not nearly as often. Gregg in his Anaheim career was about 4th in the pecking order behind K Rod, Donnelly and probably Shields in those years, so he was in a good number of mop up scenarios. Just trying to compare apples to apples.

 

Your overall point(and your assertion about Pro Player), however, can't be disputed and I strongly agree with it....At this point in his career, Gregg is what he is. That means he is not and probably will not be a good closer until he stops walking people and giving up long balls. And that's a longshot.

  • 1 month later...
Posted
Guys, I agree...save percentage is a poor measurement to compare closers. I only was using that because champaignchris used the the "only 3 blown saves" argument to say that he wasn't bad. I was simply countering that particular argument. Gregg isn't awful. But he's not good, and he doesn't give me the warm fuzzies (I don't have stats to back that last one up...you'll just have to trust me. :) )

 

He ruins my evening too often. Throw out all the other stats. Ruining my evening trumps all that.

 

every closer is going to "ruin your evening" multiple times in a season.

Posted
It wasn't pretty tonight, but he got the job done.

 

The bp fastball was on display again. Instead, it was the bottom of the Rockies lineup rather than the middle of the Marlins lineup.

 

I will never be comfortable watching him with a 1-run lead.

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The North Side Baseball Caretaker Fund
The North Side Baseball Caretaker Fund

You all care about this site. The next step is caring for it. We’re asking you to caretake this site so it can remain the premier Cubs community on the internet. Included with caretaking is ad-free browsing of North Side Baseball.

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