Derrek Lee since May 1

[SweetZombieJesus]

He's really put the team on his back as of late. Hope he can keep it up until Aramis gets back.

 

No, now is the time to deal him to the Giants for Nate Schierholtz and Tim Alderson. Fox and Hoffpaiuer are better.

[Guest]

Lee's BA crept about .290 for a bit today before finishing at .288. His OPS is now at .867, and his SLG is now at .502. He keeps this up and him, not Lilly, will be the Cubs All Star.

 

Lilly's got to be an all-star. A 151 ERA+ is really hard to beat.

 

Sixth best in the NL.

 

And not to threadjack or anything, but I didn't realize how good Johnny Cueto has been this year until just now. 2.17 ERA, and a 206 ERA+, both tops in the NL.

[dew1679666265]

Lee's BA crept about .290 for a bit today before finishing at .288. His OPS is now at .867, and his SLG is now at .502. He keeps this up and him, not Lilly, will be the Cubs All Star.

 

Lilly's got to be an all-star. A 151 ERA+ is really hard to beat.

 

Sixth best in the NL.

 

And not to threadjack or anything, but I didn't realize how good Johnny Cueto has been this year until just now. 2.17 ERA, and a 206 ERA+, both tops in the NL.

 

I didn't check beforehand, but I expected Lilly to be a bit higher than sixth best. That still should be good enough for an All-Star invite, though.

[Guest]

Down to eighth now. Here's the top-10 in the NL through Saturday.

 

Haren (ARI)       205
Cain (SFG)        191
Cueto (CIN)       176
Lincecum (SFG)    160
Johnson (FLA)     159
Billingsley (LAD) 150
Jurrjens (ATL)    147
Lilly (CHC)       146
Gallardo (MIL)    146
Santana (NYM)     133

[17 Seconds]

ERA+ is about as flawed as ERA. Lilly has been better than most of the pitchers that are ahead of him on that list

[wade]

ERA+ is about as flawed as ERA. Lilly has been better than most of the pitchers that are ahead of him on that list

 

I think 'most' is pushing it. I don't see how he's been better than Cueto, Haren, Lincecum, and Johnson. I guess you could make a case for the other three though. He's still been great.

[inari]

To people that know more about advanced statistics than I do,

 

Based on things like BABIP and LD% for Lee, and whatever numbers are used for pitchers, what should we expect our current favorite Cubs to do the rest of the way? Have their good numbers been a result of luck or are they pretty much hitting and pitching how we should expect them to given all the variables?

[Little Slide Rooter]

Down to eighth now. Here's the top-10 in the NL through Saturday.

 

Haren (ARI)       205
Cain (SFG)        191
Cueto (CIN)       176
Lincecum (SFG)    160
Johnson (FLA)     159
Billingsley (LAD) 150
Jurrjens (ATL)    147
Lilly (CHC)       146
Gallardo (MIL)    146
Santana (NYM)     133

 

That is a damn impressive list, and Im glad to see the guy who we didnt want Hendry to sign in '07 up there with the rest of those guys.

[David]

I had no problem with signing Lilly (and I don't really remember people being against the signing in general). Marquis was the guy I didn't want any part of. I was fine with getting Meche and Lilly.

[inari]

Down to eighth now. Here's the top-10 in the NL through Saturday.

 

Haren (ARI)       205
Cain (SFG)        191
Cueto (CIN)       176
Lincecum (SFG)    160
Johnson (FLA)     159
Billingsley (LAD) 150
Jurrjens (ATL)    147
Lilly (CHC)       146
Gallardo (MIL)    146
Santana (NYM)     133

 

That is a damn impressive list, and Im glad to see the guy who we didnt want Hendry to sign in '07 up there with the rest of those guys.

 

I can't speak for absolutely everyone, but I and most people I remember were very pleased with Lilly. That said, he has exceeded expectations.

[Soul]

IIRC, once Meche wasn't going to happen, Lilly seemed like a pretty viable option. I could be confusing the timelines though.

 

Maybe a few people thought the dollars were a bit high?

 

Either way, it's been an example of a good Hendry signing, IMO.

[dew1679666265]

IIRC, once Meche wasn't going to happen, Lilly seemed like a pretty viable option. I could be confusing the timelines though.

 

Maybe a few people thought the dollars were a bit high?

 

Either way, it's been an example of a good Hendry signing, IMO.

 

Here's the Lilly signing thread.

 

Most people were ok with Lilly as a secondary option, with the favorites being Schmidt, Padilla and Zito. Feelings were mixed, definitely, and there wasn't a lot of outrage, but there was quite a bit of worry that the money was too high.

 

His inconsistency before the Cubs was brought up quite a bit as well.

[daske17]

IIRC, once Meche wasn't going to happen, Lilly seemed like a pretty viable option. I could be confusing the timelines though.

 

Maybe a few people thought the dollars were a bit high?

 

Either way, it's been an example of a good Hendry signing, IMO.

 

From what I remember, it wasn't an either/or proposition. Hendry wanted both, with Marquis being the fallback. Meche got more money and guaranteed years with KC.

[Gingerballs Lives]

I had no problem with signing Lilly (and I don't really remember people being against the signing in general). Marquis was the guy I didn't want any part of. I was fine with getting Meche and Lilly.

 

 

Well according to Jim Hendry, we fans have been against every move that has eventually worked out.

[MPrior]

To people that know more about advanced statistics than I do,

 

Based on things like BABIP and LD% for Lee, and whatever numbers are used for pitchers, what should we expect our current favorite Cubs to do the rest of the way? Have their good numbers been a result of luck or are they pretty much hitting and pitching how we should expect them to given all the variables?

 

I'm no expert, but a cursory scroll through his baseball reference page suggests he hasn't been particularly lucky or unlucky. His BABIP on the year is .312, which is lower than his career average of .322 (and he hasn't posted anything under .323 since 2004), but his LD% is down too - it's at 16%, compared to a career average of 22%. Traditionally, BABIP is supposed to be ~.120 higher than LD%, so maybe he's been a bit lucky, but not hugely. His HR/FB% is right at his career average (which is good, because it's been well under his average the last couple years - this could be a sign his power is coming at least partially back). He's also been hitting much fewer ground balls than last year, which is another good sign.

 

I'm not inclined to worry too much about his low LD% yet, because he's historically been a slow starter - until 2005, the book on him was always that he was awful for April and May, and then became an offensive force from June on. I'd guess it's fairly likely that his LD% will be back around his career average at the end of the season.

[shnsajax]

IIRC, once Meche wasn't going to happen, Lilly seemed like a pretty viable option. I could be confusing the timelines though.

 

Maybe a few people thought the dollars were a bit high?

 

Either way, it's been an example of a good Hendry signing, IMO.

 

Here's the Lilly signing thread.

 

Most people were ok with Lilly as a secondary option, with the favorites being Schmidt, Padilla and Zito. Feelings were mixed, definitely, and there wasn't a lot of outrage, but there was quite a bit of worry that the money was too high.

 

His inconsistency before the Cubs was brought up quite a bit as well.

 

Given the 3 names above, Lilly looks like a great option.

[dew1679666265]

IIRC, once Meche wasn't going to happen, Lilly seemed like a pretty viable option. I could be confusing the timelines though.

 

Maybe a few people thought the dollars were a bit high?

 

Either way, it's been an example of a good Hendry signing, IMO.

 

Here's the Lilly signing thread.

 

Most people were ok with Lilly as a secondary option, with the favorites being Schmidt, Padilla and Zito. Feelings were mixed, definitely, and there wasn't a lot of outrage, but there was quite a bit of worry that the money was too high.

 

His inconsistency before the Cubs was brought up quite a bit as well.

 

Given the 3 names above, Lilly looks like a great option.

 

Yeah, I wasn't crazy about Lilly at the time (though I was intrigued by him), but I never understood the interest in those three.

[Flames24Rulz]

Looks like I was driving the Padilla train back then.

 

It's always pretty comical to look back at those threads and realize how dumb you were.

[ctcf]

I was definitely on the Schmidt bandwagon, LOL.

[dew1679666265]

Looks like I was driving the Padilla train back then.

 

It's always pretty comical to look back at those threads and realize how dumb you were.

 

Hindsight helps with some of them. I was probably most in favor of Zito, but I didn't like the price.

[Vanilla Ice]

I really wanted Westbrook and Lilly. 1-2 isn't bad.

[17 Seconds]

ERA+ is about as flawed as ERA. Lilly has been better than most of the pitchers that are ahead of him on that list

 

I think 'most' is pushing it. I don't see how he's been better than Cueto, Haren, Lincecum, and Johnson. I guess you could make a case for the other three though. He's still been great.

 

I think he's been better than Cueto. ERA is pretty much the only stat where he's better than Lilly. Fewer baserunners, missing more bats, etc..

[17 Seconds]

It's too bad he didn't get Lilly and Meche like he wanted

[Guest]

ERA+ is about as flawed as ERA. Lilly has been better than most of the pitchers that are ahead of him on that list

 

That's true. If you go by WHIP, he's fourth in the league behind only Haren, Johnson and Vazquez.

 

And again, not to threadjack, but holy crap on Dan Haren. He's got a .822 WHIP this year, best in the majors (Greinke is second at 1.02).

 

Only four times in the last 30 years has a pitcher had a WHIP under .90.

 

Pedro Martinez (2000) - .7373

Greg Maddux (1995) - .8108

Greg Maddux (1994) - .8960

Randy Johnson (2004) - .8996

 

For all the talk about Greinke this year, Haren has been pretty ridiculous as well.

[Rob]

I was all about Schmidt, but I don't have access to his medical records, and every indication is the Dodgers knew they were signing him injured. I'm not gonna beat myself up over that.

 

I was wrong on Padilla, Westbrook, and Meche though... I saw Lilly in the middle of that group... and them in that order.

 

My being higher on Marquis than most is a pleasant surprise, though. He's unfairly maligned around here.