Worried about the rotation

[17 Seconds]

I'm sure this will be followed by a bunch of "here's the first irrational worry thread", but I think this is a pretty valid concern. Harden is Harden and he's looked awful so far this spring. His velocity is way down. Is that him taking it easy, or is that what we can expect in the regular season? You'd think he would have dialed it up a little today since it's his last start before the regular season, but he looked awful.

 

Then there's Lilly. We all remember how it took Lilly like a month into the regular season to get his velocity back up, and we all saw that he can't have success if he's lost 2-3 MPH on his fastball. I fully expect that to happen again at the beginning of this season, especially with the lack of workload he got due to being in the WBC. But what if it lasts beyond the first month of the season? He's 33, so it wouldn't be that shocking.

 

Dempster shhould be good enough (I'm expecting like a 3.95 ERA, 1.30 WHIP), but he's obviously another question mark.

 

I know you can play this game with a lot of rotations, but what contender with a supposedly good rotation has questions marks this big? Would it really be a shock if all 3 of these guys sucked, or at least 2 of the 3?

[Little Slide Rooter]

I know you can play this game with a lot of rotations, but what contender with a supposedly good rotation has questions marks this big? Would it really be a shock if all 3 of these guys sucked, or at least 2 of the 3?

 

The Angels. 3 of their top starters are opening the season on the DL.

[17 Seconds]

I know you can play this game with a lot of rotations, but what contender with a supposedly good rotation has questions marks this big? Would it really be a shock if all 3 of these guys sucked, or at least 2 of the 3?

 

The Angels. 3 of their top starters are opening the season on the DL.

 

And there's a lot to worry about there too.

[Derwood]

I've grown to hate the WBC. What a terrible time to hold the thing.

[Outshined_One]

I know you can play this game with a lot of rotations, but what contender with a supposedly good rotation has questions marks this big?

 

The Cardinals and the Brewers.

[17 Seconds]

I know you can play this game with a lot of rotations, but what contender with a supposedly good rotation has questions marks this big?

 

The Cardinals and the Brewers.

 

Who is saying that the Cardinals and Brewers have good rotations?

[UMFan83]

If NSBB held an award for Mr. Irrational Panic, I'd be a strong contender. That said, even I refuse to worry until the season starts. Even after the season starts, a bad April is not the end of the world. If you want proof, look at Lilly last year. In April, people were prefering Marquis starts over Lilly. People were worried about his velocity being lower than normal, and people began to speculate whether he was washed up. By the end of the season, people were upset that Ted didn't get to pitch in October because he was our best pitcher over the last 6 weeks of the season.

 

Even if Harden is not ready now, he'll be ready at some point.

[Transmogrified Tiger]

Dempster had a 4.50 ERA last spring. Harden's was 4.71. Marquis's was 1.93. Lieber's was 1.80. Wuertz didn't give up a run last spring. Zambrano only gave up 1. Even with the WBC, Lilly has more spring innings than last year. There are no new issues with the rotation that weren't there before ST began.

[17 Seconds]

Dempster had a 4.50 ERA last spring. Harden's was 4.71. Marquis's was 1.93. Lieber's was 1.80. Wuertz didn't give up a run last spring. Zambrano only gave up 1. Even with the WBC, Lilly has more spring innings than last year. There are no new issues with the rotation that weren't there before ST began.

 

I'm not talking about spring numbers. I'm talking about the fact that Harden's velocity is way down, Lilly's is down and probably will be for a while, and Dempster has had one good year and has horrible career numbers.

[Transmogrified Tiger]

Dempster had a 4.50 ERA last spring. Harden's was 4.71. Marquis's was 1.93. Lieber's was 1.80. Wuertz didn't give up a run last spring. Zambrano only gave up 1. Even with the WBC, Lilly has more spring innings than last year. There are no new issues with the rotation that weren't there before ST began.

 

I'm not talking about spring numbers. I'm talking about the fact that Harden's velocity is way down, Lilly's is down and probably will be for a while, and Dempster has had one good year and has horrible career numbers.

 

Dempster and Lilly are no different than what they were going into the year, unless you're somehow worried about Lilly's possible slow start(while he builds velocity or whatever) dooming the team. Harden is unique, but he's said he's fine, and it's not like he's throwing at a velocities that he hasn't been very effective with in the past. Plus, we knew going in that Harden is always going to have the specter of injury hovering over him.

[Outshined_One]

I know you can play this game with a lot of rotations, but what contender with a supposedly good rotation has questions marks this big?

 

The Cardinals and the Brewers.

 

Who is saying that the Cardinals and Brewers have good rotations?

 

I think there are a decent number of people who are expecting them to have at the very least league-average rotations, especially with the prognostications that Chris Carpenter is going to win the NL Cy Young and Yovani Gallardo is going to step into Ben Sheets' shoes.

 

I don't buy those prognostications, but I'm just saying, even if we have some struggles in April/May in the rotation, we'll still have the best one in the division.

[cubsfan26]

I'm not really worried about the rotation yet. Sure Lilly might get off to a slow start, like he did last year. But I still don't think he will be anywere near as bad as last year. Overall I think Lilly will still end up being one of our most consistent pitchers. Dempster looks like he's picked up right were he was last year. So I'm not worried about him sucking. I don't think he will be as good, but I still expect a good sub 3.60-3.70 era season from him. Zambrano will still be Zambrano(has shown no signs of shoulder problems this spring), the only question will be is. Will he pitched like an ace for six months like he did in 03-06, or for four months like he's the last two years. It would be great if he could avoid having 7 era months, that inflat his era totals.

 

 

 

I'm also confident Marshall will get off to a strong start, especially in the cold weather. I'm more worried about late August and September with him. Hopefully Lou will be able to skip his spot in the rotation here and there to keep him fresh, and stop him from wearing down late in the year, simliar to Marquis last year. Rich Harden is always a concern, but as long as he takes the mound I'm not overally concerned. But thats probably because even when he's been hurt in the past, he usually always has pitched pretty good when he's been on the mound. I know he's been horrible the last two spring starts, but alot of his issues have been poor location(especially with his change up). If he gets his location right, he will still be pretty darn good even if he's not throwing in the mid 90s. I also think his velocity might improve after a few starts, simliar to Lilly last year. He just needs to avoid being on the DL, for a long period of time.

[Soul]

I would call it.......mild concern.

 

I can't really say much until the games count, because even in the last ST start who knows what is really going on out there?

 

Still though, I worry about Z and Harden the most. Z's shoulder was really becoming a problem at the end of last year, requiring extra rest. Harden's shoulder is always an issue. What if both those guys go down at the same time? Then we're talking Demp/Lilly as the 1/2. That's not a very good rotation.

 

Lilly -- he's never going to be an ace. He'll probably start out slow again, requiring several starts to tweak himself into acceptble form. Demp, I dunno.......people are saying he'll suffer a little regression-to-the-mean syndrome. If so, that eats further into our overall rotational effectiveness. Z & Harden -- I still believe both will be excellent when healthy. But how healthy will they be, especially Harden?

 

I think there are legitimate questions here. Not full-blown worry yet, but questions.

[medcubbie]

I'm much more concerned about the lack of experience in the bullpen, and the fact that we gave up our starting 2nd baseman for nothing than I am about the starting rotation.

[17 Seconds]

lack of experience? the only 2 guys in the pen with a lack of experience are patton and guzman