2009 NCAA Tournament Mock Selection Committee

[Exile on Waveland]

Michigan State has been underrated in the top-seed discussion. If they won the Big Ten Tournament, I think they would have been a No. 1. It wouldn't stun me if they still were -- they should absolutely be in the discussion -- but it would surprise me some. It is really difficult to argue against Michigan State's record against the top-50 and 100.

 

Agree that Oklahoma and Memphis really shouldn't be in the discussion.

[bukie]

Using an extremely scientific method, here's how the auto-bids that weren't locked for at-large bids are ordered:

 

USC (Pac-10)

Utah State (WAC)

Temple (A-10)

Siena (MAAC)

VCU (CAA)

Cleveland State (HORZ)

Mississippi State (SEC if they win)

Northern Iowa (MVC)

Western Kentucky (SB)

North Dakota State (SUMMIT)

Stephen F. Austin (SL if they win)

American (PAT)

Akron (MAC)

Portland State (BSky)

Cornell (Ivy)

East Tennessee State (ASun)

Cal State Northridge (BW)

Robert Morris (NEC)

Binghamton (AE)

Morgan State (MEAC)

Radford (BSouth)

Morehead State (OVC)

Texas SA (SL if they win)

Alabama State (SWAC)

Chattanooga (SC)

 

 

Yes, Chattanooga came out dead last, even below the SWAC team.

 

So, taking those and adding them to the current S-Curve (assuming the better team wins both tournaments where the loser is out), we have (after alterations)

 

1. North Carolina

2. Pittsburgh

3. Louisville (BE)

4. Connecticut

5. Michigan State

6. Duke (ACC)

7. Oklahoma

8. Memphis (CUSA)

9. Wake Forest

10. Villanova

11. Kansas

12. Missouri (B12)

13. Washington

14. Florida State

15. Syracuse

16. UCLA

17. Gonzaga (WCC)

18. Xavier

19. Illinois

20. Purdue (B10)

21. Clemson

22. West Virginia

23. Arizona State

24. Marquette

25. Utah (MWC)

26. BYU

27. Texas

28. California

29. Tennessee (SEC)

30. Oklahoma State

31. Butler

32. Ohio State

33. Wisconsin

34. Michigan

35. LSU

36. Boston College

37. Texas A&M

38. Minnesota

39. Penn State

40. San Diego State

41. Maryland

42. Dayton

43. USC (Pac-10)

44. Utah State (WAC)

45. Temple (A-10)

46. Siena (MAAC)

47. VCU (CAA)

48. Cleveland State (HORZ)

49. Northern Iowa (MVC)

50. Western Kentucky (SB)

51. North Dakota State (SUMMIT)

52. Stephen F. Austin (SL if they win)

53. American (PAT)

54. Akron (MAC)

55. Portland State (BSky)

56. Cornell (Ivy)

57. East Tennessee State (ASun)

58. Cal State Northridge (BW)

59. Robert Morris (NEC)

60. Binghamton (AE)

61. Morgan State (MEAC)

62. Radford (BSouth)

63. Morehead State (OVC)

64. Alabama State (SWAC)

65. Chattanooga (SC)

[bukie]

Michigan State has been underrated in the top-seed discussion. If they won the Big Ten Tournament, I think they would have been a No. 1. It wouldn't stun me if they still were -- they should absolutely be in the discussion -- but it would surprise me some. It is really difficult to argue against Michigan State's record against the top-50 and 100.

 

Agree that Oklahoma and Memphis really shouldn't be in the discussion.

Another chip in MSU's cap is that both non-conference losses happened without Suton in the lineup.

[CubbieBum]

Michigan State has been underrated in the top-seed discussion. If they won the Big Ten Tournament, I think they would have been a No. 1. It wouldn't stun me if they still were -- they should absolutely be in the discussion -- but it would surprise me some. It is really difficult to argue against Michigan State's record against the top-50 and 100.

 

Agree that Oklahoma and Memphis really shouldn't be in the discussion.

Another chip in MSU's cap is that both non-conference losses happened without Suton in the lineup.

 

That and Morgan was out for a period. They haven't been fully healthy practically all season.

[CubbieBum]

Using an extremely scientific method, here's how the auto-bids that weren't locked for at-large bids are ordered:

 

USC (Pac-10)

Utah State (WAC)

Temple (A-10)

Siena (MAAC)

VCU (CAA)

Cleveland State (HORZ)

Mississippi State (SEC if they win)

Northern Iowa (MVC)

Western Kentucky (SB)

North Dakota State (SUMMIT)

Stephen F. Austin (SL if they win)

American (PAT)

Akron (MAC)

Portland State (BSky)

Cornell (Ivy)

East Tennessee State (ASun)

Cal State Northridge (BW)

Robert Morris (NEC)

Binghamton (AE)

Morgan State (MEAC)

Radford (BSouth)

Morehead State (OVC)

Texas SA (SL if they win)

Alabama State (SWAC)

Chattanooga (SC)

 

 

Yes, Chattanooga came out dead last, even below the SWAC team.

 

So, taking those and adding them to the current S-Curve (assuming the better team wins both tournaments where the loser is out), we have (after alterations)

 

1. North Carolina

2. Pittsburgh

3. Louisville (BE)

4. Connecticut

5. Michigan State

6. Duke (ACC)

7. Oklahoma

8. Memphis (CUSA)

9. Wake Forest

10. Villanova

11. Kansas

12. Missouri (B12)

13. Washington

14. Florida State

15. Syracuse

16. UCLA

17. Gonzaga (WCC)

18. Xavier

19. Illinois

20. Purdue (B10)

21. Clemson

22. West Virginia

23. Arizona State

24. Marquette

25. Utah (MWC)

26. BYU

27. Texas

28. California

29. Tennessee (SEC)

30. Oklahoma State

31. Butler

32. Ohio State

33. Wisconsin

34. Michigan

35. LSU

36. Boston College

37. Texas A&M

38. Minnesota

39. Penn State

40. San Diego State

41. Maryland

42. Dayton

43. USC (Pac-10)

44. Utah State (WAC)

45. Temple (A-10)

46. Siena (MAAC)

47. VCU (CAA)

48. Cleveland State (HORZ)

49. Northern Iowa (MVC)

50. Western Kentucky (SB)

51. North Dakota State (SUMMIT)

52. Stephen F. Austin (SL if they win)

53. American (PAT)

54. Akron (MAC)

55. Portland State (BSky)

56. Cornell (Ivy)

57. East Tennessee State (ASun)

58. Cal State Northridge (BW)

59. Robert Morris (NEC)

60. Binghamton (AE)

61. Morgan State (MEAC)

62. Radford (BSouth)

63. Morehead State (OVC)

64. Alabama State (SWAC)

65. Chattanooga (SC)

 

Well I think if Purdue wins they are a 4 seed but my vote on them doesn't count. They are at the least above Xavier.

[bukie]

So, looking at a bracket straight from the S-Curve (without applying bracket rules or locations yet), we have:

 

REGION A           REGION B          REGION C           REGION D
1. North Carolina  1. Pittsburgh     1. Louisville      1. Connecticut
2. Memphis         2. Oklahoma       2. Duke            2. Michigan State
3. Wake Forest     3. Villanova      3. Kansas          3. Missouri
4. UCLA            4. Syracuse       4. Florida St.     4. Washington
5. Gonzaga         5. Xavier         5. Illinois        5. Purdue
6. Marquette       6. Arizona St.    6. West Virginia   6. Clemson
7. Utah            7. BYU            7. Texas           7. California
8. Ohio State      8. Butler         8. Oklahoma St.    8. Tennessee
9. Wisconsin       9. Michigan       9. LSU             9. Boston College
10. Maryland       10. San Diego St. 10. Minnesota      10. Texas A&M
11. Dayton         11. USC           11. Utah State     11. Temple
12. Miss. St.      12. Cleveland St. 12. VCU           12. Siena          
13. Northern Iowa  13. W. Kentucky   13. ND State       13. S.F. Austin
14. Cornell        14. Portland St.  14. Akron          14. American
15. ETSU           15. CS Northridge 15. Robert Morris  15. Binghamton
16. Alabama St.    16. Morehead St.  16. Radford        16. Morgan State
16a. Chattanooga

 

EDIT: Fixed to include Mississippi State. Removed Penn State.

Edited March 15, 2009 by bukie

[bukie]

Also, if I had to guess what team we'll miss, I'd guess Creighton or St. Mary's, with PSU/Maryland/SD State out.

[Exile on Waveland]

Also, if I had to guess what team we'll miss, I'd guess Creighton or St. Mary's, with PSU/Maryland/SD State out.

 

I'm thinking you're right. I'd be very surprised if both Creighton and St. Mary's are left out. I think St. Mary's will make it. I also think LSU will undeservedly get a better seed than what we have.

[bukie]

Mississippi State in. Who would be out between Dayton, Penn State, SD State and Maryland? I'm leaning towards bumping Penn State, simply due to the awful non-con.

[bukie]

One try at a legal bracket:

 

Midwest            East              South              West
1. North Carolina  1. Pittsburgh     1. Louisville      1. Connecticut
16. AB St./Chat.   16. Morehead St.  16. Radford        16. Morgan State

8. Oklahoma St.    8. Butler         8. Utah            8. Tennessee
9. Wisconsin       9. BC             9. LSU             9. Michigan

4. Syracuse        4. UCLA           4. Washington      4. Florida State
13. Northern Iowa  13. W. Kentucky   13. ND State       13. S.F. Austin
5. Xavier          5. Illinois       5. Purdue          5. Gonzaga
12. Miss. St.      12. Cleveland St. 12. VCU            12. Siena          

2. Memphis         2. Oklahoma       2. Duke            2. Michigan State
15. ETSU           15. CS Northridge 15. Robert Morris  15. Binghamton
7. Texas           7. BYU            7. Ohio St.        7. California
10. Maryland       10. Minnesota     10. Texas A&M      10. SD State

3. Villanova       3. Wake Forest    3. Kansas          3. Missouri
14. Cornell        14. Portland St.  14. Akron          14. American
6. Arizona St.     6. Marquette.     6. West Virginia   6. Clemson
11. Dayton         11. USC           11. Utah State     11. Temple

 

The only actual seed I switched was Ohio State and Utah, since there were too many Big Ten teams on the 4/5/8/9 seed lines.

[Guest]

One try at a legal bracket:

 

Midwest            East              South              West
1. North Carolina  1. Pittsburgh     1. Louisville      1. Connecticut
16. AB St./Chat.   16. Morehead St.  16. Radford        16. Morgan State

8. Oklahoma St.    8. Butler         8. Utah            8. Tennessee
9. Wisconsin       9. BC             9. LSU             9. Michigan

4. Syracuse        4. UCLA           4. Washington      4. Florida State
13. Northern Iowa  13. W. Kentucky   13. ND State       13. S.F. Austin
5. Xavier          5. Illinois       5. Purdue          5. Gonzaga
12. Miss. St.      12. Cleveland St. 12. VCU            12. Siena          

2. Memphis         2. Oklahoma       2. Duke            2. Michigan State
15. ETSU           15. CS Northridge 15. Robert Morris  15. Binghamton
7. Texas           7. BYU            7. Ohio St.        7. California
10. Maryland       10. Minnesota     10. Texas A&M      10. SD State

3. Villanova       3. Wake Forest    3. Kansas          3. Missouri
14. Cornell        14. Portland St.  14. Akron          14. American
6. Arizona St.     6. Marquette.     6. West Virginia   6. Clemson
11. Dayton         11. USC           11. Utah State     11. Temple

 

The only actual seed I switched was Ohio State and Utah, since there were too many Big Ten teams on the 4/5/8/9 seed lines.

 

Interesting. I'd be really pleased with a 4 seed. And if UCLA and Illinois advanced, I'd become the most hated poster here. :)

[Transmogrified Tiger]

I'm going to be very angry that Mizzou isn't going to play in KC because Memphis and/or Oklahoma take a spot there instead.

[Transmogrified Tiger]

And here's Bracketology 101's final bracket. They've been the most accurate the past 3 years.

 

http://2.bp.blogspot.com/_OxkZF8Xm-iI/Sb1kjyiz4bI/AAAAAAAABKM/3gA_fso-BRU/s400/B101_2009_FINAL_2.JPG

[bukie]

And here's Bracketology 101's final bracket. They've been the most accurate the past 3 years.

 

http://2.bp.blogspot.com/_OxkZF8Xm-iI/Sb1kjyiz4bI/AAAAAAAABKM/3gA_fso-BRU/s400/B101_2009_FINAL_2.JPG

Man, our bracket didn't even make the list. What a crock. ;)

[Transmogrified Tiger]

And here's Bracketology 101's final bracket. They've been the most accurate the past 3 years.

 

http://2.bp.blogspot.com/_OxkZF8Xm-iI/Sb1kjyiz4bI/AAAAAAAABKM/3gA_fso-BRU/s400/B101_2009_FINAL_2.JPG

Man, our bracket didn't even make the list. What a crock. ;)

 

The scoring system is real simple, if someone wanted to they could compare our results from previous years.

[ISUCubsFan]

One try at a legal bracket:

 

Midwest            East              South              West
1. North Carolina  1. Pittsburgh     1. Louisville      1. Connecticut
16. AB St./Chat.   16. Morehead St.  16. Radford        16. Morgan State

8. Oklahoma St.    8. Butler         8. Utah            8. Tennessee
9. Wisconsin       9. BC             9. LSU             9. Michigan

4. Syracuse        4. UCLA           4. Washington      4. Florida State
13. Northern Iowa  13. W. Kentucky   13. ND State       13. S.F. Austin
5. Xavier          5. Illinois       5. Purdue          5. Gonzaga
12. Miss. St.      12. Cleveland St. 12. VCU            12. Siena          

2. Memphis         2. Oklahoma       2. Duke            2. Michigan State
15. ETSU           15. CS Northridge 15. Robert Morris  15. Binghamton
7. Texas           7. BYU            7. Ohio St.        7. California
10. Maryland       10. Minnesota     10. Texas A&M      10. SD State

3. Villanova       3. Wake Forest    3. Kansas          3. Missouri
14. Cornell        14. Portland St.  14. Akron          14. American
6. Arizona St.     6. Marquette.     6. West Virginia   6. Clemson
11. Dayton         11. USC           11. Utah State     11. Temple

 

The only actual seed I switched was Ohio State and Utah, since there were too many Big Ten teams on the 4/5/8/9 seed lines.

 

Looks good to me. I think PSU probably should be in, but they are the most likely team we had in to be displaced by Mississippi State. Thanks for doing all the work on this Bukie. It was a lot of fun.

[Prior4CyYoung]

Hell ya Ville #1 overall seed!!!

[Mark Priors Calves]

seriously, when are they going to get rid of the play-in game?

[Derwood]

seriously, when are they going to get rid of the play-in game?

 

it's terrible that one team that earned an auto-bid doesn't even play on Thursday/Friday

[salukifudd]

Zona making the tourney is awful.

[bukie]

LOL, we missed one team, but it was Arizona while San Diego State was out.

[Prior4CyYoung]

Ya i think San Diego St got screwed but oh well.

[ISUCubsFan]

Ya i think San Diego St got screwed but oh well.

 

Yeah, I though they would be in as well.

 

64/65 teams in.

34/65 teams on the correct line.

59/65 within one line.

 

Might want to recount on a few of those since I did it quick, but not too bad.

[bukie]

Ya i think San Diego St got screwed but oh well.

 

Yeah, I though they would be in as well.

 

64/65 teams in.

34/65 teams on the correct line.

59/65 within one line.

 

Might want to recount on a few of those since I did it quick, but not too bad.

Not bad at all. Actually, really really good. Other than Utah and Wisconsin (and Arizona), the bracket was very reasonable.

[cubweiser03]

I almost craped'em when wisky was 12. then minny got the 10 and i felt better, but at the same time i was on full defcon 3 to tear my walls down if Michigan didnt get in.

 

this tourney is going to be up in the air. i think its going to an awesome one.