2009 NCAA Tournament Mock Selection Committee

[bukie]

Remaining bubble teams are still to be tabulated, so let's talk the current S-Curve. It's a bit late to make a bunch of tweaks, and by not doing this we probably guard against overweighing the conference tourneys. Anybody have major objections to any of these current placements? I've listed all games that they've played since their placement in these spots on the S curve.

 

1. Pittsburgh (L vs WV 74-60) Down 1

2. North Carolina (W vs VT 79-76, vs FSU tomorrow) Up 1

3. Connecticut (L vs SYR 127-117 6 OTs) OK

4. Oklahoma (L vs OSU 71-70) Down 3

5. Michigan State (W vs MN 64-56, vs tOSU tomorrow) Up 1

6. Louisville (W vs PROV 73-55, W vs NOVA 69-55 vs SYR tomorrow) Up 1

7. Duke (W vs BC 66-65, vs MD tomorrow) Up 1

8. Memphis (W vs TULANE 51-41, W vs HOU 74-49 vs TULSA tomorrow) OK

9. Wake Forest (L vs MD 75-64) OK

10. Kansas (L 71-64 vs Baylor) OK

11. Washington (W vs STAN 85-73, L vs ASU 75-65) Down 2

12. Villanova (W vs MARQ 76-75, L vs LOU 69-55) OK

13. Missouri (W vs TXTECH 81-60, W vs OSU 67-59, vs BAY tomorrow) Up 2

14. Clemson (L vs GA Tech 86-81) Down 8

15. UCLA (W 64-53 vs WSU, L vs USC 65-55) Down 1

16. Florida State (W vs GT 64-62, vs UNC tomorrow) Up 2

17. Xavier (W vs STL 66-47, L vs TEM 55-53) Down 2

18. Gonzaga (WCC) (Done) OK

19. Illinois (W vs MICH 60-50, vs PUR tomorrow) Up 2

20. Syracuse (W vs SETON 89-74, W vs CONN 127-117 6 OTs, W vs WV 74-69 OT, vs LOU tomorrow) Up 5

21. West Virginia(L vs SYR 74-69) Down 2

22. Purdue(W vs PSU 79-65, vs IL tomorrow) Up 2

23. Arizona State(W vs WASH 75-65, vs UCLA/USC tomorrow) Up 2

24. Marquette(Done) OK

25. BYU(L vs SDSU 64-62) OK

26. Texas(L vs BAY 76-70) Down 2

27. California(Done) Down 2

28. Oklahoma State(L vs MIZZ 67-59) Down 2

29. Butler(Done) Down 2

30. Utah(W vs WYO 68-55, vs SDSU tomorrow) Up 3

31. Tennessee(W vs ALA 86-62, vs AUB tomorrow) Up 5

32. Wisconsin(L vs tOSU 61-57) Down 1

33. Michigan(L vs IL 60-50) Down 1

34. LSU(W vs UK 67-58, vs MISS ST tomorrow) Up 2

35. Boston College(L vs DUKE 66-65) OK

36. Texas A&M (Done) OK (probably down below some bubble teams, though)

 

My opinions on placement listed above in blue.

[Vanilla Ice]

Ohio State

Maryland

Minnesota

Arizona

Penn State

Dayton

St. Mary's

 

---Cut Line---

 

USC

San Diego State

Creighton

South Carolina

Utah State

Virginia Tech

Auburn

Temple

Florida

New Mexico

[CubbieBum]

My new top 20 through Friday's games is ...

 

- () equals change from s-curve -

 

1. UNC (up 1)

2. Michigan State (up 3)

3. Pittsburgh (down 2)

4. Louisville (up 2)

5. UCONN (down 2)

6. Duke (up 1)

7. Oklahoma (down 3)

8. Memphis (same)

9. Villanova (up 3)

10. Wake Forest (down 1)

11. Kansas (down 1)

12. Missouri (up 1)

13. Washington (down 2)

14. Syracuse (up 6)

15. Florida State (up 1)

16. Gonzaga (up 2)

17. UCLA (down 2)

18. Illinois (up 1)

19. Purdue (up 3)

20. Arizona State (up 3)

 

 

 

Just general thoughts on seeds.

 

- No way UCONN can still be a one seed. Pitt beat them in regular season, UNC is better, Mich St won a tourny game and is 12-2 versus top 50, Louisville is regular season champ and advanced farther in conference tourny.

 

- 6 top 10 teams losing in a two day span makes it nearly impossible to come to a general agreement on the seeds. Which of the those teams fall the farthest and which teams that did win get to move in front of them?

 

- The winner of Illinois/Purdue should be a 4 seed and the loser either a 5 or 6. If its a really close game I go 5 seed if its a double digit loss I go 6 seed.

[bukie]

As of this morning, the top 4 in RPI, in order, are Pittsburgh, Duke, UNC, Michigan State.

[bukie]

I know it's a bit early, but here's the order of the bubble:

 

Ohio State

Minnesota

Penn State

San Diego State

Maryland

Dayton

Arizona

 

------------ CURRENT CUT LINE

 

Utah State

St. Mary's

Creighton

USC

Temple

Auburn

Virgina Tech

South Carolina

Florida

New Mexico

 

The Cut Line will move up if USC wins the Pac 10, Baylor wins the Big 12, Tulsa wins the CUSA, or Miss State or Auburn wins the SEC. So as many as 4 other bubbles could be screwed. The ACC, Big 10, MWC and Big East champs will be a team above the cut line. So, even SD State and Maryland should probably just go ahead and win that auto-bid.

[Prior4CyYoung]

ill be on the road for the rest of the day so this is my last bubble update. If some of these teams do more like win there conference tournaments feel free to just adjust it.

Ohio State

Penn State

Dayton

Arizona

Creighton

Minnesota

Maryland

 

Cutline

 

San Diego State

Utah State

St. Mary's

USC

Auburn

Temple

Virgina Tech

Florida

New Mexico

South Carolina

[Prior4CyYoung]

Remaining bubble teams are still to be tabulated, so let's talk the current S-Curve. It's a bit late to make a bunch of tweaks, and by not doing this we probably guard against overweighing the conference tourneys. Anybody have major objections to any of these current placements? I've listed all games that they've played since their placement in these spots on the S curve.

 

1. Pittsburgh (L vs WV 74-60) Down 1 Agreed

2. North Carolina (W vs VT 79-76, vs FSU tomorrow) Up 1 Agreed

3. Connecticut (L vs SYR 127-117 6 OTs) OK sounds good

4. Oklahoma (L vs OSU 71-70) Down 3 sounds good

5. Michigan State (W vs MN 64-56, vs tOSU tomorrow) Up 1 sounds good

6. Louisville (W vs PROV 73-55, W vs NOVA 69-55 vs SYR tomorrow) Up 1 sounds good

7. Duke (W vs BC 66-65, vs MD tomorrow) Up 1

8. Memphis (W vs TULANE 51-41, W vs HOU 74-49 vs TULSA tomorrow) OK id move memphis ahead of Duke but thats just me I guess

9. Wake Forest (L vs MD 75-64) OK ok

10. Kansas (L 71-64 vs Baylor) OK ok

11. Washington (W vs STAN 85-73, L vs ASU 75-65) Down 2 ok

12. Villanova (W vs MARQ 76-75, L vs LOU 69-55) OK Id move nova ahead of Kansas

13. Missouri (W vs TXTECH 81-60, W vs OSU 67-59, vs BAY tomorrow) Up 2 ok

14. Clemson (L vs GA Tech 86-81) Down 8 ok

15. UCLA (W 64-53 vs WSU, L vs USC 65-55) Down 1 I would probably move ucla down a couple more spots

16. Florida State (W vs GT 64-62, vs UNC tomorrow) Up 2 ok

17. Xavier (W vs STL 66-47, L vs TEM 55-53) Down 2 ok

18. Gonzaga (WCC) (Done) OK ok

19. Illinois (W vs MICH 60-50, vs PUR tomorrow) Up 2 ok

20. Syracuse (W vs SETON 89-74, W vs CONN 127-117 6 OTs, W vs WV 74-69 OT, vs LOU tomorrow) Up 5 ok

21. West Virginia(L vs SYR 74-69) Down 2 I would keep them right here actually. Losing to cuse in OT should not do much.

22. Purdue(W vs PSU 79-65, vs IL tomorrow) Up 2 ok

23. Arizona State(W vs WASH 75-65, vs UCLA/USC tomorrow) Up 2 ok

24. Marquette(Done) OK ok

25. BYU(L vs SDSU 64-62) OK ok

26. Texas(L vs BAY 76-70) Down 2 ok

27. California(Done) Down 2 ok

28. Oklahoma State(L vs MIZZ 67-59) Down 2 ok

29. Butler(Done) Down 2 ok

30. Utah(W vs WYO 68-55, vs SDSU tomorrow) Up 3 ok

31. Tennessee(W vs ALA 86-62, vs AUB tomorrow) Up 5 up 5 seems a bit much maybe if they beat auburn id be ok with that.

32. Wisconsin(L vs tOSU 61-57) Down 1 ok

33. Michigan(L vs IL 60-50) Down 1 ok

34. LSU(W vs UK 67-58, vs MISS ST tomorrow) Up 2 ok

35. Boston College(L vs DUKE 66-65) OK ok

36. Texas A&M (Done) OK (probably down below some bubble teams, though)

I would move them off the protected list for sure.

 

My opinions on placement listed above in blue.

[bukie]

Current "S-Curve":

1. Pittsburgh

2. North Carolina

3. Connecticut

4. Oklahoma

5. Michigan State

6. Louisville

7. Duke

8. Memphis (CUSA)

9. Wake Forest

10. Kansas

11. Washington

12. Villanova

13. Missouri

14. Clemson

15. UCLA

16. Florida State

17. Xavier

18. Gonzaga (WCC)

19. Illinois

20. Syracuse

21. West Virginia

22. Purdue

23. Arizona State

24. Marquette

25. BYU

26. Texas

27. California

28. Oklahoma State

29. Butler

30. Utah

31. Tennessee

32. Wisconsin

33. Michigan

34. LSU

35. Boston College

36. Texas A&M

37. Ohio State

38. Minnesota

39. Penn State

40. San Diego State

41. Maryland

42. Dayton

43. Arizona

44. Siena (MAAC)

45. Cleveland St. (Horizon)

46. VCU (CAA)

47. N Iowa (MVC)

48. WKU (SB)

49. NDSU (Summit)

50. Portland St. (BSky)

51. Cornell (Ivy)

52. Robert Morris (NEC)

53. ETSU (ASun)

54. Radford (BSouth)

55. Chattanooga (SC)

56. Morehead St. (OVC)

 

Still need to fit in American (Pat), Binghamton (AE), Big West (CS Northridge), A-10 (Temple), Southland (SF Austin), MAC (Buffalo), SWAC (Alabama State), WAC (Utah State), and MEAC (Morgan State). Possibly Baylor, USC and Auburn/Miss State.

 

As for movement, these are the teams I think should move (simplified from what I have earlier):

- Oklahoma down below the 2 seeds

- Clemson down a bunch, below Purdue

- Xavier down below Purdue

- Syracuse up below Florida State

- Missouri up below Kansas

- Utah and Tennessee up above BYU

- Ohio State up above Michigan/Wisconsin

[SouthSideRyan]

I think you're punishing Clemson too much, and rewarding Utah and Tennessee too much, when the latter 2 haven't done much of anything.

[ISUCubsFan]

Current "S-Curve":

1. Pittsburgh

2. North Carolina

3. Connecticut

4. Oklahoma

5. Michigan State

6. Louisville

7. Duke

8. Memphis (CUSA)

9. Wake Forest

10. Kansas

11. Washington

12. Villanova

13. Missouri

14. Clemson

15. UCLA

16. Florida State

17. Xavier

18. Gonzaga (WCC)

19. Illinois

20. Syracuse

21. West Virginia

22. Purdue

23. Arizona State

24. Marquette

25. BYU

26. Texas

27. California

28. Oklahoma State

29. Butler

30. Utah

31. Tennessee

32. Wisconsin

33. Michigan

34. LSU

35. Boston College

36. Texas A&M

37. Ohio State

38. Minnesota

39. Penn State

40. San Diego State

41. Maryland

42. Dayton

43. Arizona

44. Siena (MAAC)

45. Cleveland St. (Horizon)

46. VCU (CAA)

47. N Iowa (MVC)

48. WKU (SB)

49. NDSU (Summit)

50. Portland St. (BSky)

51. Cornell (Ivy)

52. Robert Morris (NEC)

53. ETSU (ASun)

54. Radford (BSouth)

55. Chattanooga (SC)

56. Morehead St. (OVC)

 

Still need to fit in American (Pat), Binghamton (AE), Big West (CS Northridge), A-10 (Temple), Southland (SF Austin), MAC (Buffalo), SWAC (Alabama State), WAC (Utah State), and MEAC (Morgan State). Possibly Baylor, USC and Auburn/Miss State.

 

As for movement, these are the teams I think should move (simplified from what I have earlier):

- Oklahoma down below the 2 seeds

- Clemson down a bunch, below Purdue

- Xavier down below Purdue

- Syracuse up below Florida State

- Missouri up below Kansas

- Utah and Tennessee up above BYU

- Ohio State up above Michigan/Wisconsin

 

I think that's too harsh on Oklahoma. Oklahoma State isn't a terrible loss or anything, I'd go Louisville, Michigan State, Oklahoma, Duke, Memphis right now for 4-8. Duke can still move up though.

 

I'd only put Clemson below Purdue if they beat Illinois. Still seems harsh.

 

Xavier shouldn't get hurt that much, Temple isn't terrible. I'd go above WVU.

 

Cuse below FSU seems good, but both should be above UCLA now.

 

Missouri below KU seems fine, though I still think Nova should be above both of them now, or at least Washington.

 

Too much of a jump for Utah and Tennessee. It's not like they've beat anyone in their tourneys yet. It's not jumping BYU I have a problem with, it's the other teams in between.

 

Agree w/ Ohio State.

 

Things should be clearer around 8 tonight, so I think I'll hold off on more changes until then.

[Derwood]

I think Ohio State is a lock now

[bukie]

USC's win bumps a team off the bubble. According to our list, that team is Arizona, coincidentally.

[ISUCubsFan]

My Suggested S-Curve:

 

1. North Carolina (UP 1)

2. Pittsburgh (DOWN 1)

3. Connecticut

4. Louisville (UP 2)

5. Michigan State

6. Oklahoma (DOWN 2)

7. Duke

8. Memphis

9. Wake Forest

10. Villanova (UP 2)

11. Kansas (DOWN 1)

12. Missouri (UP 1)

13. Washington (DOWN 2)

14. Florida State (UP 2)

15. Syracuse (UP 5)

16. UCLA (DOWN 1)

17. Gonzaga (UP 1)

18. Xavier (DOWN 1)

19. Illinois

20. Purdue (UP 2)

21. Clemson (DOWN 7)

22. West Virginia (DOWN 1)

23. Arizona State

24. Marquette

25. Utah (UP 5)

26. BYU (DOWN 1)

27. Texas (DOWN 1)

28. California (DOWN 1)

29. Tennessee (UP 2)

30. Oklahoma State (DOWN 2)

31. Butler (DOWN 2)

32. Ohio State (UP 6)

33. Wisconsin (DOWN 1)

34. Michigan (DOWN 1)

35. LSU (DOWN 1)

36. Boston College (DOWN 1)

37. Texas A&M (DOWN 1)

38. Minnesota

39. Penn State

40. San Diego State

41. Maryland

42. Dayton

43. USC (NEW)

44. Utah St. (PROJECTED)

45. Temple (NEW)

46. Siena

47. Cleveland St.

48. VCU

49. N Iowa

50. WKU

51. NDSU

52. S.F. Austin (PROJECTED)

53. Portland St.

54. American (NEW)

55. Akron (NEW)

56. Binghamton (NEW)

57. Cornell

58. Robert Morris

59. ETSU

60. Cal State Northridge (PROJECTED)

61. Morgan St. (NEW)

62. Radford

63. Chattanooga

64. Morehead St.

65. Alabama St. (NEW)

 

Notes:

- Louisville gets the last 1 seed.

- I don't want to move UConn down when their only losses are Pitt(x2), G-town, and Cuse.

- Clemson down 7 looks harsh, but it a combo of them falling a little, and other teams below that level moving up.

- Utah's jump seems too high, though a 6-7 seed sounds about right.

- Arizona dropping out is probably good. I think they deserve to be in, but I'm pretty sure they're going to be left out.

- I don't know if it should happen, but moving Siena up should be discussed.

- I like the teams we have in right now in terms of going 65/65.

- There are a lot of auto-bids that need to be discussed towards the bottom of the bracket. I'm probably way off on some of these.

[Prior4CyYoung]

MSU no longer deserves a 1 seed neither does Oklahoma that 1 seed should go to Louisville winners of the big east tourney and out right winners of the regular season.

[shnsajax]

MSU no longer deserves a 1 seed neither does Oklahoma that 1 seed should go to Louisville winners of the big east tourney and out right winners of the regular season.

 

Without question.

[bukie]

I think Duke, as much as I despise the free pub they get on ESPN, has a case for the 4th 1 seed. UNC, Pitt, Louisville, Duke.

[Transmogrified Tiger]

Duke over UConn is a hard sell for me. I also like Wake Forest for a 2 seed at Memphis' expense, but I don't expect that to be a popular notion.

[bukie]

Duke over UConn is a hard sell for me. I also like Wake Forest for a 2 seed at Memphis' expense, but I don't expect that to be a popular notion.

Memphis doesn't have the profile for a 1 seed, but they have the profile and "momentum" for a 2 seed.

[CubbieBum]

Duke-MSU-UCONN are pretty much all even to me. Duke has the not being upset in tourny, UCONN overall season, and MSU has the 12-2 against top 50 and 4-1 against top 25. I would personally go MSU-UCONN-Duke but I'm fine with any order.

[Exile on Waveland]

It's worth noting that UConn is not the same team it was with Jerome Dyson. The Huskies are only 4-3 without him (though obviously two losses to Pitt and a six overtime loss to Syracuse aren't bad losses).

[bukie]

Lot of auto bids yesterday with Akron, Utah State, Morgan State, Alabama State, Missouri, USC, Temple, Cal State Northridge,

 

4 bids for today with the favorites being Stephen F. Austin, Duke, Tennessee, and Purdue. Mississippi State could still ruin an at-large team's chance.

[Prior4CyYoung]

I would take UConn over duke and memphis as the 4th #1 seed. They only have 4 losses and 2 of them were to pitt. They also beat Louisville on the road and it took cuse 6 overtimes to beat them. My 1 seeds would be UNC PITT Louisville Uconn.

[bukie]

Statistically, it would not surprise me to see Pitt, UNC, Duke and Michigan State as the #1 seeds, despite Louisville winning the Big East championship and ten straight. They just didn't have the numbers going into the conference tourney. Either way, it'll be 4 of those 6 that get them. Oklahoma and Memphis just don't have a case.

[Prior4CyYoung]

I am pretty sure it would surprise the world if Duke MSU pitt and unc were the 4 #1 seeds.

[bukie]

I am pretty sure it would surprise the world if Duke MSU pitt and unc were the 4 #1 seeds.

Mostly because the world has been spoon fed crap about how the Big East is the best conference ever all year. All the while, the ACC has been the #1 conference all year.