2009 NCAA Tournament Mock Selection Committee

[Exile on Waveland]

The last 12 stuff bothers me because schedules are so unbalanced from one team to the next. Marquette's the perfect example. Their last 12 is gonna look mediocre because they ended the season playing UConn, Pitt, Louisville, and Syracuse. They won't have those losses at the end of the year because they went cold. They'll have those losses because they had to play the 3 best teams in the conference at the end of the year.(That and they lost James)

 

I don't disagree. However, I also have issues with assigning too much weight to one "bad loss." Multiple such losses, sure. One isolated game isn't terribly predictive. Michigan State won the 2000 National Championship but lost to No. 187 Wright State (using kenpom). Syracuse won the 2003 National Championship but lost to No. 104 Rutgers. North Carolina won the 2005 National Championship but lost to No. 125 Santa Clara.

 

Point taken, though to be fair, I only really tiebroke with that, because those 4 teams are really really similar.

 

Yeah, something has to be the tiebreaker.

Edited March 3, 2009 by Exile on Waveland

[CubInOK]

I guess I'll join in.

[bukie]

I guess I'll join in.

The more, the merrier. I find there are more interesting results when more people are involved. That way I don't personally influence the overall bracket too much. :)

[Vanilla Ice]

When we do these Team A/Team B comparisons, can we add in offensive and defensive efficiency or at least Pomeroy's rankings.

[bukie]

When we do these Team A/Team B comparisons, can we add in offensive and defensive efficiency or at least Pomeroy's rankings.

That slides into the realm of how good a team is more so than what they've accomplished. Difficult to weigh both, but when we're actually ranking teams, I'll indicate who they are also, so people who want to can do additional research.

 

Although I do like the anonymous team stuff to get a cross-section of opinion on a set of teams without individual biases clouding judgment.

[CubbieBum]

In a close resume between teams I put the most stock in record versus top 50 and r/n games. Reason being that is what they will face in the tourny. They will be playing at a neutral site and most likely against a rpi top 50 opponent.

[CubInOK]

Conference tournaments start tonight for the Big South and OVC. I'll keep updating the first post with auto bids as they happen.

 

And to start the discussion, take the following 4 teams:

 

Team A: 22-6 record, 2-2 against the top 25, 5-4 against the top 50, no losses outside the top 100, 10-3 R/N record, 6-6 in the last 12, SOS 45

Team B: 22-7 record, 3-2 against the top 25, 7-6 against the top 50, 1 loss outside the top 100, 6-6 R/N record, 9-3 in the last 12, SOS 20

Team C: 23-7 record, 3-3 against the top 25, 8-6 against the top 50, no losses outside the top 100, 9-4 R/N record, 8-4 in the last 12, SOS 33

Team D: 23-6 record, 2-3 against the top 25, 7-4 against the top 50, 1 loss outside the top 100, 7-5 R/N record, 8-4 in the last 12, SOS 55

 

What order would you rank them in, without looking up the names of the schools? I think they're almost identical, but I'd probably go C-B-A-D.

 

EDIT: A valuable piece of information I left out is that early in the year, team A won at team C. Still doesn't really sway me too much as I think overall team C's profile is better.

A C B D

[TruffleShuffle]

My 1 bid conferences, no matter what happens:(Being as conservative as possible, though a few of the ones I omitted would take one hell of an argument to get me to see 2 teams from it.)

 

SWAC, MEAC, NEC, Patriot, Big South, Ivy, Atlantic Sun, OVC, America East, Sun Belt, Big Sky, Southland, MAC, Big West, Colonial

 

i'd say you could safely include the summit. north dakota st is the best team but they haven't beaten a top 100 rpi team all year, and they have bad losses.

 

as i've said before, i don't think davidson should get in without winning their conference tourney, because they have two bad conference losses at home.

 

i suspect that siena and niagara don't have the non-conference win(s) to get into the tourney without winning the MAAC.

 

st. mary's will be an interesting case if they lose to gonzaga in the conference final. gonzaga is obviously in either way.

 

the horizon is pretty easy - they get two in if butler loses, and one in if butler wins.

 

the MVC is tougher - creighton is borderline if they lose; if they win then the MVC should only get one bid.

 

the atlantic 10 - xavier is in, dayton and uri are pretty close and i suspect only one of them gets in, temple has to win the a-10 tourney to get in.

 

conference usa - memphis is in, uab could be interesting if they win the rest of their games and then lose to memphis in the cusa final.

 

mountain west - utah and byu should be in barring a collapse; sdsu, unlv and new mexico are also in the mix. unlv seems to have more bad losses but also a pair of big road wins (@louisville, @byu). tough call.

[SouthSideRyan]

As I said I was being conservative as possible. When we've done this in the past, I start with as inclusive a pool of teams as possible, and work backwards from there.

 

ND St., I'm not seeing it, but I left that out there cause I'd be willing to hear an argument at least. Same with Cleveland St./Milwaukee

 

Davidson I've still got right on the bubble because one of those 2 bad losses was without Curry. If they lost in the title game of their tourney, I'd at least consider them.

 

 

I'd likely put Niagra/Siena out, but like Davidson, I'm willing to consider them with a run to their title game.

 

I'm willing to consider Northern Iowa.

 

Pretty sure I agree with you on the A-10. Temple just has too many bad losses. I think I've got Rhode Island over Dayton right now.

 

I don't really care much for St. Mary's or the West Coast conference, but if the bubble's weak and Patty Mills looks good in his 2 games back, they might make it.

 

Agreed on UAB. One (utterly unlikely) scenario is Houston beating Memphis tomorrow, and then again in the C-USA tourney before falling to UAB in the finals. 2 wins against Memphis would at least put them in the conversation(even though I'm not wild about Houston and think Memphis is pretty overrated)

 

Agreed on MWC. I'm not that big on Utah, but somebody has to take up the 34 spots.

[Exile on Waveland]

I too am impressed by UAB's 2-9 record against the kenpom top-100 (1-9 against the top-80).

[SouthSideRyan]

I too am impressed by UAB's 2-9 record against the kenpom top-100 (1-9 against the top-80).

 

Well if they win out until the championship, they likely end up 4-10. Again, it's not great, but they're worth considering at that point.

[SouthSideRyan]

And nevermind on North Dakota St. 1 bid for Summit.

[SouthSideRyan]

http://spreadsheets.google.com/pub?key=p5UFuRIBSLFVAyslCWImIbA&gid=0

 

If anyone cares, a nice spreadsheet of all the conference tourneys. Updates every morning I believe.

[Exile on Waveland]

http://spreadsheets.google.com/pub?key=p5UFuRIBSLFVAyslCWImIbA&gid=0

 

If anyone cares, a nice spreadsheet of all the conference tourneys. Updates every morning I believe.

 

Does ESPN no longer have a tab for a conference tournament scoreboard? Or a conference tournament page? Perhaps I'm lazy, but I'd rather not have to individually check each conference daily.

 

Edit: Oh, and thanks for the spreadsheet.

[SouthSideRyan]

http://spreadsheets.google.com/pub?key=p5UFuRIBSLFVAyslCWImIbA&gid=0

 

If anyone cares, a nice spreadsheet of all the conference tourneys. Updates every morning I believe.

 

Does ESPN no longer have a tab for a conference tournament scoreboard? Or a conference tournament page? Perhaps I'm lazy, but I'd rather not have to individually check each conference daily.

 

Edit: Oh, and thanks for the spreadsheet.

 

Championship Week home page

 

Tournament schedules

Edited March 4, 2009 by SouthSideRyan

[Exile on Waveland]

http://spreadsheets.google.com/pub?key=p5UFuRIBSLFVAyslCWImIbA&gid=0

 

If anyone cares, a nice spreadsheet of all the conference tourneys. Updates every morning I believe.

 

Does ESPN no longer have a tab for a conference tournament scoreboard? Or a conference tournament page? Perhaps I'm lazy, but I'd rather not have to individually check each conference daily.

 

Edit: Oh, and thanks for the spreadsheet.

 

Championship Week home page

 

Tournament schedules

 

Thanks. In addition to lazy, I must be blind. I looked and couldn't find that.

[CubInOK]

http://realtimerpi.com/rpi_Men.html

 

Here's a free RPI site that updates once a day. Anyway it's what the committee uses, so if it's any help...

[SouthSideRyan]

Pomeroy Ratings

 

Updated every night/morning. Attempts to judge each team based on offensive/defensive efficiency more than just wins-losses. Disclaimer that it is meant to be predictive.

 

Explanation of the stats used for the rankings.

[ISUCubsFan]

In. PM was sent yesterday, though I should've waited a little while to thin the bubble out.

 

Responding to some discussion earlier in the thread:

 

I really like ND State, but they can't get an at large.

 

Davidson probably can't survive another SoCon loss. That would give them 3 losses to bad teams (2 with Curry) and only one good win to fall back on (WVU).

 

Niagara is out barring something insane happening (or a MAAC title obviously), Siena probably should be too. Have to have some quality wins at some point.

 

Creighton is a long shot to me but I could see it if they go to the MVC title game. UNI not so much.

 

St. Mary's has a chance, but they can only win one more game without getting an auto bid, so there's not much room for improvement.

 

Dayton looks decent if they beat all non-Xavier teams from here on out. URI probably needs another good win to have a good chance, meaning Dayton or maybe Temple. Temple is out.

 

2009 Utah St. is a slightly worse version than 2004 Utah St., and that didn't work out well then. Looks like they need to win the WAC.

 

I agree that the Horizon is Butler+1.

 

CUSA is probably Memphis+1 as well. UAB doesn't have any terrible losses, but their only good win is Arizona (awesome ending) and they've had their chances. They need some bubble chaos to make it.

 

MWC is interesting. Utah and BYU are locks or very close. After that it's close between UNLV and SDSU, and both are squarely on the bubble right now. It would take a lot of convincing to get me to put New Mexico in with their non-conference performance, but it isn't impossible. Today's win vs Utah helps, but they really needed a few road wins at some point.

[SouthSideRyan]

I glossed over the WAC earlier. I do not like Utah St. I think I've got them as 1 bid.

 

I'm putting together my locks right now, and I'm having a really hard time putting together 34. I'm stuck at 21 right now.

[TruffleShuffle]

I glossed over the WAC earlier. I do not like Utah St. I think I've got them as 1 bid.

 

I'm putting together my locks right now, and I'm having a really hard time putting together 34. I'm stuck at 21 right now.

 

locks:

 

acc: duke, unc, clemson, wake, florida st (5)

big east: pitt, uconn, louisville, west virginia, villanova, marquette, syracuse (7)

big ten: purdue, mich st, illinois (3)

big xii: oklahoma, mizzou, kansas, texas - i think texas has enough strong wins to be a lock (4)

pac 10: ucla, washington, arizona st - cal is really close to a lock but if they lose their road games to the arizonas and then crap out in the first round of the pac 10 tourney i could see them being left out (3)

sec: lsu (1) - tennessee and south carolina close but not quite

mountain west: utah, byu (2) - barring epic collapses.

a-10: xavier (1)

cusa: memphis (1)

horizon: butler (1)

wcc: gonzaga (1)

 

that's 29 teams that i'd consider locks.

[bukie]

There doesn't need to be 34 locks at this point. If you only see 21 locks, make 21 locks.

[SouthSideRyan]

Yeah, I know bukie, just double checking myself.

 

I've got 25 right now.

 

Sell me on Xavier, Butler, Utah, and West Virginia

 

I've got Utah with losses to a pretty terrible Idaho St. team and a non-D1 Southwest Baptist. Lost to a Utah St. team I have barely on my 30+ bubble teams. Only split with bubblers SDSU and UNLV.

On the plus side, Utah St. game was on the road and only by 2. Lost by only 3 to Cal who I locked. Beat locks BYU, Gonzaga, and LSU(by 30)

They're definitely in the top group of my bubble.

 

Xavier I've got with to non-factors Duquesne and Charlotte. On the plus side they've got a win at LSU and Mizzou and Memphis both on neutral courts.

Again, they're top of my bubble, but I wouldn't lock them.

 

Butler's got a win at Xavier and a close loss at OSU

They've got losses to non-factors at Green Bay and Milwaukee. They've got a loss at home to a terrible Loyola team.

I don't think they're anything close to a sure thing.

 

West Virginia beat the living crap out of Villanova at home and OSU on the road.

On the downside there's not a lot. The losses to Davidson, Kentucky, and Cincy aren't great, but they shouldn't keep them out. Beat DePaul tomorrow, I guess I'll lock them.

[Transmogrified Tiger]

Yeah, I don't think WVU is a lock. They're only a half step above Providence, and I don't think Providence is even in the field.

[TruffleShuffle]

Yeah, I don't think WVU is a lock. They're only a half step above Providence, and I don't think Providence is even in the field.

 

20-9 while playing one of the hardest schedules in the country should be a lock.