Sheets ready by July 2009 - Will NOT play for Brewers

[The Other 15]

http://mlb.mlb.com/news/article.jsp?ymd=20090205&content_id=3801488&vkey=hotstove2008&fext=.jsp

 

Not very surprising considering how all the team with money to spend avoided him like the plague.

[Transmogrified Tiger]

Time to swoop in with the Dempster special rehab deal.

[Outshined_One]

Time to swoop in with the Dempster special rehab deal.

 

I can dig it. Let's hope he'd be more of a Ryan Dempster than a Wade Miller if the Cubs got him.

[The Other 15]

It's too bad. He's a nice guy and a great pitcher. But elbow surgery at 32 years of age is not a recipe for a huge contract any time soon. Maybe it's back to the Brewers if they have to pay for the surgery.

 

NM, he's 30 next year. Fine Dempster him immediately.

 

Why would you offer arbitration to a pitcher with a torn flexor? The Brewers just dodged a $15 million speeding train.

[davell]

You still have to give up a pick if you sign him before June, right?

[Southpaw191679666239]

People were concerned with the shoulder before this news, if I recall correctly.

[The Other 15]

You still have to give up a pick if you sign him before June, right?

Yeah, and on second thought, I might see why they offered him arbitration knowing he had a torn flexor. They were trying to get him at a discounted rate when they revealed the extent of his injury.

[Banedon]

Time to make him a reliever if he does come back?

[erik316wttn]

Time to swoop in with the Dempster special rehab deal.

 

I'd be all over that like white on rice. Give him a low-base deal with vesting options based on IP, because he's not going to get a big, multi-year deal anymore. At least not with his next contract.

[CubColtPacer]

Time to swoop in with the Dempster special rehab deal.

 

I'd be all over that like white on rice. Give him a low-base deal with vesting options based on IP, because he's not going to get a big, multi-year deal anymore. At least not with his next contract.

 

Giving up the first round pick is too much of a gamble for an injured player. If he's still out there in June, he'll have some competition for his services once the compensation drops off, but I doubt you'll see anybody besides possibly the Brewers touch him before that.

[imb]

Time to swoop in with the Dempster special rehab deal.

 

i saw this today when i was at the gym and this was my same thought. Give him a 2-year, 12-15 million dollar deal. Pay him a small portion this year to rehab, and then the rest next year. If he struggles in 2010, oh well, it's just a one-year pill you swallow. If he hits it big, he gets paid and gets to go for a big deal in 2011

[SouthSideRyan]

Time to swoop in with the Dempster special rehab deal.

 

i saw this today when i was at the gym and this was my same thought. Give him a 2-year, 12-15 million dollar deal. Pay him a small portion this year to rehab, and then the rest next year. If he struggles in 2010, oh well, it's just a one-year pill you swallow. If he hits it big, he gets paid and gets to go for a big deal in 2011

 

12-15M seems too much for a guy who could be throwing his first pitches next year. 2/10.

[imb]

Time to swoop in with the Dempster special rehab deal.

 

i saw this today when i was at the gym and this was my same thought. Give him a 2-year, 12-15 million dollar deal. Pay him a small portion this year to rehab, and then the rest next year. If he struggles in 2010, oh well, it's just a one-year pill you swallow. If he hits it big, he gets paid and gets to go for a big deal in 2011

 

12-15M seems too much for a guy who could be throwing his first pitches next year. 2/10.

 

it probably is, but you have to offer him something he'll take, too. Maybe make the 2010 cash incentive laden, but who knows if he'll take it.

 

I'm going to be relatively upset if Hendry doesn't even test these waters. I mean, Wade Miller... come on.

[The Other 15]

This is a 9-10 month rehab surgery. Nobody is going to get anything from Sheets in 2009. Paying him 12-15 mil on a two year deal is akin to paying him that much for one year.

 

Everyone will wait and see how the early reports are after surgery. Then, after the June draft, you'll start seeing teams jockeying for position because he is still relatively young.

 

I'm going back and fourth with this one. Who is the bigger fool? Melvin for offering Arb or Sheets for declining?

[The Other 15]

Time to swoop in with the Dempster special rehab deal.

 

i saw this today when i was at the gym and this was my same thought. Give him a 2-year, 12-15 million dollar deal. Pay him a small portion this year to rehab, and then the rest next year. If he struggles in 2010, oh well, it's just a one-year pill you swallow. If he hits it big, he gets paid and gets to go for a big deal in 2011

 

12-15M seems too much for a guy who could be throwing his first pitches next year. 2/10.

 

it probably is, but you have to offer him something he'll take, too. Maybe make the 2010 cash incentive laden, but who knows if he'll take it.

 

I'm going to be relatively upset if Hendry doesn't even test these waters. I mean, Wade Miller... come on.

He invested a total of 2.5 mil into the two year Wade Miller experiment. It didn't work, but it was a good gamble. Sheets will likely command more than that, but its' too early to tell.

[imb]

yeah, you're only going to get one year out of him, so you sink a little bit of this year's available cash into him for the right to have him for 8 or 9 or 10 or whatever next year. It's a risk, but if there's a FA in this year's class worthy of one, it's Sheets

[The Other 15]

yeah, you're only going to get one year out of him, so you sink a little bit of this year's available cash into him for the right to have him for 8 or 9 or 10 or whatever next year. It's a risk, but if there's a FA in this year's class worthy of one, it's Sheets

I don't know about that. We're talking elbow surgery here. I feel the same way as you do in regards that this could be an opportunity to land a quality pitcher but there is too much mystery surrounding a guy who now adds elbow to long history of shoulder issues.

 

Plus, is there such a thing as this years available cash? I'm not sure, but if there was, I'd invest it into Peavy before Sheets.

[CubColtPacer]

yeah, you're only going to get one year out of him, so you sink a little bit of this year's available cash into him for the right to have him for 8 or 9 or 10 or whatever next year. It's a risk, but if there's a FA in this year's class worthy of one, it's Sheets

 

Well, let's see. The best you can really hope out of Sheets coming off surgery is for him to be a 20 million dollar pitcher like he was last year (slightly over 3 ERA over 200 innings). But the chances of him doing anything like that are very slim. The realistic hopeful scenario would probably have to have him worth somewhere around 15 million. So you're paying 10 for him to be possibly worth 15, but there's a solid chance that he'll be worth 4 or less (if he's either unable to pitch or is not effective coming off surgery). That's a very questionable gamble in and of itself.

 

Then you add in that if you do this, Sheets becomes the major free agent acquisition of next year. The Cubs budget would be pretty much maxed out, and so you're sacrificing a lot of roster flexibility if you sign Sheets now. That includes not being able to re-sign Rich Harden. So you're essentially taking Harden's money and throwing it to Sheets and trading one risk for another. But I'd still rather take a risk on Harden because you'll have more information on how Harden is going to perform in 2010 in 7 months when his contract negotiations start than you do with how Sheets is going to perform in 2010 now.

 

Finally, you add in the first round pick. And that's a major loss to an organization who needs more talent in their farm system. Sheets being a possible 5 million dollar bargain is not worth the pick, loss of flexibility, and risk that he'll continue to be hurt.

[The Other 15]

He won't get signed by anyone before the June draft because of the first round compensation.

[shnsajax]

I had no idea the Rangers and Sheets had reached a prelim agreement last week?

[Ball And Glove]

Why would you offer arbitration to a pitcher with a torn flexor? The Brewers just dodged a $15 million speeding train.

 

It wasn't a bad gamble. If he declined and a team signed him thinking the injury would be fine by the time Spring Training opened, they get a couple picks out of it. If he accepted and this news came out, they could have still waived Sheets in Spring Training at no cost. Arby amounts aren't guaranteed to players who were free agents.

 

At Brewerfan the main discussion seems to be about the complete incompetency of the Brewers' medical staff if no one thought the injury was this serious. Apparently the Brewers' staff just thought it was something that would heal with time, which is why the front office was comfortable with making the arby offer. I guess they even flew down recently to check up on him and they didn't change their mind. Now, the Rangers staff takes one look at him and runs like he has the plague.

 

Of course, this is still the same medical staff that took a look at Yo Gallardo at Wrigley last year and said "Oh, he's fine. Just rub some dirt on it" instead of "Hey Ned, he's got a torn freaking ACL." That's not even mentioning the tons of miscalculations on shelf time for guys like Sheets, Rickie Weeks, J.J. Hardy, and Geoff Jenkins over the years.

[SouthSideRyan]

Arby amounts aren't guaranteed to players who were free agents.

 

They get 1/6th pay.

[Ball And Glove]

Arby amounts aren't guaranteed to players who were free agents.

 

They get 1/6th pay.

 

You're right, my bad. In Sheets' case that would've been about $2.5MM, assuming he would've gotten around $15 million.

[mul21]

yeah, you're only going to get one year out of him, so you sink a little bit of this year's available cash into him for the right to have him for 8 or 9 or 10 or whatever next year. It's a risk, but if there's a FA in this year's class worthy of one, it's Sheets

I don't know about that. We're talking elbow surgery here. I feel the same way as you do in regards that this could be an opportunity to land a quality pitcher but there is too much mystery surrounding a guy who now adds elbow to long history of shoulder issues.

 

Plus, is there such a thing as this years available cash? I'm not sure, but if there was, I'd invest it into Peavy before Sheets.

 

I feel a lot better about fixing elbows than I do shoulders. Granted, this isn't the nearly perfected TJS, but it can't be any more involved of a surgery or complicated of a rehab. I'd bet on Sheets pitching well a hundred times before I bet on a guy coming back from a shoulder issue. Say, Chris Carpenter for example. He's one of the few that has had a truly full comeback from a major shoulder issue.

[SouthSideRyan]

Arby amounts aren't guaranteed to players who were free agents.

 

They get 1/6th pay.

 

You're right, my bad. In Sheets' case that would've been about $2.5MM, assuming he would've gotten around $15 million.

 

Which I agree wouldn't have been an awful gamble(without knowing a whole lot about your payroll situation.)

Edited February 6, 2009 by SouthSideRyan