2009 Projection: Jay Jackson

[videographer]

2009 Projection: Jay Jackson

MLB projection: #3 Starting Pitcher

Strengths: Athletic, confident, slider, fastball

Weaknesses: Short for a RHP, pitch location, lacks projection

 

There are many statistics and clues to follow any minor league prospect throughout the season. Each player has a different set of expectations to meet the projection of their MLB prospect status. Here are a set of reasonable variables to follow Jay Jackson in 2009 on his projection as a mid-rotation starting pitcher.

 

Pitchers are not easily projected out of spring training compared to position players. The best scenario is for Jackson to begin at Daytona where he ended in 2008. Starting in Peoria is a step back and may show a lack of preparedness. With a good season he should advance to AA before the end of 09. Jackson’s athletic ability must transfer to durability. An arm injury, even minor, may indicate an inability to repeat his delivery. Typically, future major league pitchers will dominate early in their careers. Jackson should compete for Cubs minor league pitcher of the year.

 

Good variables to maintain status (Mid-rotation starting pitcher):

Opening day starter and 1or 2 in rotation throughout year

20-25 starts and 125+ IP (should lead staff in IP)

ERA under 3.50

Fewer hits than IP

Walks under 4/9IP

Ks 7.5/9IP or higher

Low number of unearned runs

Opponents BA at or under .250

6 or more consecutive starts of 0-2 runs given up over 5+ IP

At least 15 starts pitching into 6th inning (show of game management)

Maintain FB velocity in low 90s

Refine (location) slider as out pitch and develop consistent third pitch

[the splendid splinter]

Didnt know that 6'1 is short?

[videographer]

Yeah, it sucks to think that. In his scouting report last year, his height was considered fringe for a RHP. "Downward plane" has been the buzz phrase the last few years. I think the emphasis of the 4-seam FB over a 2-seam sinker has created a generation of tall RHP. I can remember 20 years ago, most pitchers threw sinking FB and were scouted for it. The classic example is Orel Hershiser. His FB topped out at 90-91mph, yet threw a wicked sinker. He won a Cy Young and signed the biggest contract for a pitcher at that time. Maddux is another great example. In that era, 6'3" was considered tall. Now, that height is average. The emphasis on FB velocity as prerequisite to prospect status is a recent (20 years) thing. Maybe the radar gun has a lot to do with it.

 

Anway, Jackson's scouting report suggests that he must maintain a downward plane on his FB to compensate for his height for future success. Now if he threw a sinker . . .

[the splendid splinter]

I've read reports that his fb is 90-95 with avg around 92-93 and his fb can be straight but has good control to it. I've read he's got a very good slider and that his cb and change are avg pitches. Havent read about his lack of downward plane but have read that he's very upright in his delivery and with the combination of being somewhat straight and upright in his delivery it would depict some high non moving fastballs which could spell trouble with thee exception of his power slider can equalize some hitters sitting on a high fastball.

[craig]

6'1" certainly is below average in height for a RHP or for a power pitcher, or for a guy scouts project as a power pitcher. Shorter levers and all that, different angle, ball release a few inches further from the plate. I do seem to recall the comment that Jackson had long arms, though, so perhaps his levers are no shorter than a taller prospect. Sometimes orgs tend to think guys who aren't tall enough or burly enough will lack the durability to be high-pitch-count innings-eating rotation men. Not sure how Jackson fares/projects in that regard. But last year they really limited his pitch counts. He rarely pitched very many innings, and given how few walks he had I'm not sure his pitches/inning ratio was very high.

 

At present the reports seem to have him throwing with plenty satisfactory velocity, if in fact his fastball has the life and location of a big-league fastball. But it would not seem to project as an overpowering fastball. BA wrote it up as 90-93, touching 95. You aren't going to live on that in the majors, if it doesn't have exceptional life or location and you don't have dynamic support pitches. But there are plenty of all-stars who throw that fast or slower, but have good command/action/breaking stuff.

 

The scouting report had him throwing a very good hard slider, with so-so unrefined but not hopeless curve and change.

 

video, do you know anything about his fastball, as in 4-seam vs 2-seam? I'd guess it's 4-seam, in order to explain the K's. 4-seamer moving around high, slider diving, if low-ball hitters couldn't tell which was which, then if they swing for the 4-seam they'll swing over the slider; if they swing for slider then they'll swing under the 4-seam fastball.

[Transmogrified Tiger]

http://cubsminors.wikispaces.com/JacksonJ

[UK1679666180]

video, do you know anything about his fastball, as in 4-seam vs 2-seam? I'd guess it's 4-seam, in order to explain the K's. 4-seamer moving around high, slider diving, if low-ball hitters couldn't tell which was which, then if they swing for the 4-seam they'll swing over the slider; if they swing for slider then they'll swing under the 4-seam fastball.

 

Everything that I've read said that is a 4 seamer with some natural movement (I'm not sure if it's cut, sink, or rise). Draft reports had it listed as a pitch that would sit at 90 and top at 93 that could bump up to sitting at 92 and top at 95 when he concentrates on pitching full-time as well strengthening his lower half. they also mentioned a solid slider and curve with a developing change to go along good command and a free and easy arm action.

[the splendid splinter]

I'm going with David Rosario's statement of an overpowering slider. Ill let the rest of baseball prognosticators have Manuel, Cooper, Sickles and Callis.

[craig]

I'm going with David Rosario's statement of an overpowering slider. Ill let the rest of baseball prognosticators have Manuel, Cooper, Sickles and Callis.

 

Clearly the cubs and anybody else who has actually seen him have ID'd the slider as being his signature pitch. Any pitcher with one exceptional pitch can have a pretty good career if he can throw strikes and has another pitch or two that are at least OK. I'd think a lively 90-95 fastball would qualify as quite OK. If the slider is overpowering and exceptional.

[BigbadB]

Sounds a bit like Matt Clement.

[fromthestretch]

Sounds a bit like Matt Clement.

 

Jackson appears to have better control than Clement though.

[UK1679666180]

Sounds a bit like Matt Clement.

 

Jackson appears to have better control than Clement though.

 

Different types of pitchers.

 

Clement threw from a 3/4 arm angle with plus movement on both his FB and slider, the thing that separates him from most pitchers was his long, lanky, frame was how difficult it was for the RH'ed batter to pickup the ball coming out of his hand.

 

Clement is more like Juan Cruz, except that Juan Cruz had a plus changeup and the slider wasn't as sharp as Clement's, but both had more movement than they knew what to do with, 3/4 arm angle, and suspect control.

 

I would say that if Jackson follows the course, he is prob. going to end up like Shaun Marcum with a better FB.

[BigbadB]

I would say that if Jackson follows the course, he is prob. going to end up like Shaun Marcum with a better FB.

 

Wow! But, isn't Marcum currently on the shelf with some sort of arm ailment?

 

Is it my imagination, or do guys who rely heavily on sliders tend to be more injury prone than others? In other words, what type of setbacks will the Cubs need to worry about with Jackson's future?

[UK1679666180]

I would say that if Jackson follows the course, he is prob. going to end up like Shaun Marcum with a better FB.

 

Wow! But, isn't Marcum currently on the shelf with some sort of arm ailment?

 

Is it my imagination, or do guys who rely heavily on sliders tend to be more injury prone than others? In other words, what type of setbacks will the Cubs need to worry about with Jackson's future?

 

The slider is a stressful pitch on the arm moreso than a curve or obviously a FB. Everything I've read on Jackson is that he has very fluid mechanics and once he strengthens his lower body, it should help reduce the stress on his arm.