Did we overpay for Dempster?

[atcfootball]

If we let him test the market would have he come close to getting 52M/4Yr's he got from the Cubs (I understand he was a FA, and "tested" the market)? I understand you want to sign the guy before having his price go up by other teams making offers, but in this case with this year, did JH jump the gun on this one? I have to think if we waited a few more weeks, let him see the offers on the table for him, we could have got him for less money. Just a thought.

[cubsfan26]

Nope, Demspter would have gotten 5y at 70-75m from some team. He was a pretty hot free agent and had alot of teams interested in him. If Dempster isn't good over the next few years then we might have overpaid, but compared to what he could have gotten this offseason, we didn't overpay though.

[apete6]

If AJ Burnett got 5/82.5 or whatever, then I don't think we overpayed because the Yankees would have gone close to that with Dempster.

 

Burnett is more talented and has a better track record as a starter, but he's also very injury prone. Dempster had the TJS, but other than that, he's been relatively healthy. If he keeps up his workout program, I would imagine he's probably worth the money over the life of the contract.

[jersey cubs fan]

Possibly, but the market changed dramatically in November and December. There's only one team spending money, and that is NY. Maybe they would have gone after Dempster instead of one of the guys they got, but all indications were they got the guys they wanted all along. He probably would have cost less if they let him stay on the market for a while, but that's only after realizing just how much worse the economy got late in the year. Who would have predicted the Mets owner would lose a large chunk of his net worth in the Madoff scandal?

 

 

Had the Yankees wanted him, they probably would have paid more. But I doubt anybody else would have.

[Post Count Padder]

Probably not. It's a big contract for a guy coming off a career year, but he could have gotten $20 mil more on the open market.

[Backtobanks]

If we let him test the market would have he come close to getting 52M/4Yr's he got from the Cubs (I understand he was a FA, and "tested" the market)? I understand you want to sign the guy before having his price go up by other teams making offers, but in this case with this year, did JH jump the gun on this one? I have to think if we waited a few more weeks, let him see the offers on the table for him, we could have got him for less money. Just a thought.

 

If someone offered $60+ million for him and he took it, we would have to trade for Peavy because we would be short a starter. Instead trading for Peavy is a luxury and it will give us an unbelievable rotation.

[jersey cubs fan]

Probably not. It's a big contract for a guy coming off a career year, but he could have gotten $20 mil more on the open market.

 

He could have. But who would have given it to him? Nobody is signing big money free agents outside the Yankees. The Red Sox went cheap. A couple teams talked about Teixeira for PR purposes. CC was Milwaukee or NY. I'm not convinced he would have had a bigger buyer.

[CubColtPacer]

Probably not. It's a big contract for a guy coming off a career year, but he could have gotten $20 mil more on the open market.

 

He could have. But who would have given it to him? Nobody is signing big money free agents outside the Yankees. The Red Sox went cheap. A couple teams talked about Teixeira for PR purposes. CC was Milwaukee or NY. I'm not convinced he would have had a bigger buyer.

 

Atlanta probably would have, although I doubt they would have gone as high as 20 million more. They were trying to decide if Dempster or Burnett was option number 1 when they started the offseason, and ended up offering Burnett something in the 4 year 60 million range (with an option for a 5th year) after Dempster had been signed.

[YearofDaCubs]

Of course we overpaid. We gave an unproven starter crazy money.

[Mephistopheles]

Yes and no. Compared to the market, probably not. Compared to his most likely level of production, probably a bit.

[Mephistopheles]

Of course we overpaid. We gave an unproven starter crazy money.

 

Not that I disagree or anything, but for what it is worth. Ryan Dempster has had two ASG appearances, which is two more than AJ Burnett and only one fewer than CC Sabathia.

[rchap24]

Yes and no. Compared to the market, probably not. Compared to his most likely level of production, probably a bit.

 

Agree with that statement :thumbsup:

[Monco]

Yes.

 

I have questioned the signing because I believe he won't pitch at last years level. I'm guessing his numbers will be closer to Marquis' numbers. Last year was a career year. (Funny how that happened in a contract year). The money they're paying him is causing them to have to unload contracts(Wood,Marquis,DeRosa) to bring in others. They could have let him walk and gotten compensation. They could have used the money and offered Wood arbitration. If he refused,they would have gotten compensation for him also. I believe replacing Kerry Wood with Kevin Gregg is weakening the pen. Kevin Gregg seems to be more of a replacement for Bob Howry.

[Peoriaman]

no.

[third eye]

Of course we overpaid. We gave an unproven starter crazy money.

 

Not that I disagree or anything, but for what it is worth. Ryan Dempster has had two ASG appearances, which is two more than AJ Burnett and only one fewer than CC Sabathia.

 

 

:shock:

 

Are you citing this as a reason that FA market demand might have been there for him (perception) or as a reason the contract was appropriate for his production?

[SweetZombieJesus]

Yes, would you give Mike Bielecki, Kent Bottenfield or Carl Pavano big deals?

[SweetZombieJesus]

Of course we overpaid. We gave an unproven starter crazy money.

 

Not that I disagree or anything, but for what it is worth. Ryan Dempster has had two ASG appearances, which is two more than AJ Burnett and only one fewer than CC Sabathia.

 

All star game appearances are not real descriptor of good pitching Shawn Estes was once a all star pitcher.

[17 Seconds]

Of course we overpaid. We gave an unproven starter crazy money.

 

Not that I disagree or anything, but for what it is worth. Ryan Dempster has had two ASG appearances, which is two more than AJ Burnett and only one fewer than CC Sabathia.

 

stop

[Sammy Sofa]

Yes.

 

I have questioned the signing because I believe he won't pitch at last years level. I'm guessing his numbers will be closer to Marquis' numbers.

 

The space between how excellent Dempster pitched last year and how Jason Marquis usually pitches over a season is pretty gigantic. I agree he almost certainly won't repeat last year, but to just assume he'll plunge all the way down to Marquis' level is incredibly pessimistic.

[RynoRules]

I really just don't like the 4th yr on the deal. I think that will turn out to be a big mistake.

[Cubzfan64]

This isn't meant as a sarcastic answer to the question, but there's no way to know until we see his performance over the next few years.

 

What I do believe is that it's a pretty big gamble considering how above average last year was for him - has he stepped up his game, or was last year just an aberration? I know what my opinion is, and I hope I'm wrong.

[Gingerballs Lives]

Yes, would you give Mike Bielecki, Kent Bottenfield or Carl Pavano big deals?

 

Have you watched Dempster pitch? He's so much better than those guys.

 

I don't understand the people who don't think that Dempster is good. Watch his stuff; it's filthy!

 

He was mis-cast as a reliever and still wasn't terrible. He will continue to put up 15+ win seasons for the Cubs.

[apete6]

Yes, would you give Mike Bielecki, Kent Bottenfield or Carl Pavano big deals?

 

Have you watched Dempster pitch? He's so much better than those guys.

 

I don't understand the people who don't think that Dempster is good. Watch his stuff; it's filthy!

 

He was mis-cast as a reliever and still wasn't terrible. He will continue to put up 15+ win seasons for the Cubs.

 

Wow, a "use your eyes" AND using wins as a measurement in the same post. That was a gritty post.

[Gingerballs Lives]

Yes, would you give Mike Bielecki, Kent Bottenfield or Carl Pavano big deals?

 

Have you watched Dempster pitch? He's so much better than those guys.

 

I don't understand the people who don't think that Dempster is good. Watch his stuff; it's filthy!

 

He was mis-cast as a reliever and still wasn't terrible. He will continue to put up 15+ win seasons for the Cubs.

 

Wow, a "use your eyes" AND using wins as a measurement in the same post. That was a gritty post.

 

 

You can use any measurement you like, Dempster was awesome last year and it should continue.

[Illini Iceman]

Yes, would you give Mike Bielecki, Kent Bottenfield or Carl Pavano big deals?

 

Have you watched Dempster pitch? He's so much better than those guys.

 

I don't understand the people who don't think that Dempster is good. Watch his stuff; it's filthy!

 

He was mis-cast as a reliever and still wasn't terrible. He will continue to put up 15+ win seasons for the Cubs.

 

Wow, a "use your eyes" AND using wins as a measurement in the same post. That was a gritty post.

 

 

You can use any measurement you like, Dempster was awesome last year and it should continue.

 

Maybe he won't be as good as last year but nothing he did really made it seem like it was smoke and mirrors. I would rather have Dempster at the contract he signed than Wood at the one Cleveland gave him. Wood's production is much more easily replaceable than finding a starter that can give you Dempster's production. I wouldn't feel as good about a possible '09 rotation of Z, Harden, Lilly, Shark, Marshall as I do about a bullpen of Marmol, Cotts, Vizcaino, Shark, Gaudin, Guzman, Wuertz, etc. They have enough decent candidates in the pen that they should be able to have someone step up.