Fukudome v. Edmonds (aka defense matters)

[Transmogrified Tiger]

I've been on a bit of a defense kick lately, and I wanted to illustrate that losing Edmonds' production from last year isn't as big a blow to the team as previously thought.

 

Last year Edmonds put up a .354 wOBA as a Cub. Using .328 as league average from a recent FanGraphs article, and Tango's formula to convert to runs, Edmonds was about 10 runs above average with the bat. UZR had his defense continuing a 4 year trend of deterioration at -10 runs. Since it was the largest jump in those 4 years, let's be conservative and say that he was actually half that bad, and say on an offense+defense basis Edmonds is +5 runs.

 

Now for Kosuke. He finished the year with a .328 wOBA, exactly league average. Bill James projects a better season from him next season while Marcels has more of the same, let's be pessimistic and say he drops to .315. That makes him 5 runs below average with the bat given Edmonds' PAs. UZR has Kosuke as a +10 defender in RF. Since Kosuke's strength in RF is his range, I don't think that it would be overly different in CF, so let's say he's a +7 defender there next year. That puts Kosuke at +2 runs on an offense+defense basis.

 

Three runs separating the two players is not really significant. Given that we were generous to Edmonds' defense and pessimistic to Kosuke's offense, there's reason to believe that simply inserting Kosuke instead of Edmonds into the CF platoon makes us better off as a whole next year.

 

Also, for anyone who's curious, Pie is probably a +15 CF, and as such needs to be about a .301 wOBA to equal Edmonds at +5. To compare across statistics, Marcels projects Pie for a .310 wOBA, and a .251/.317/.389/.706 slash line.

[TruffleShuffle]

Three runs separating the two players is not really significant. Given that we were generous to Edmonds' defense and pessimistic to Kosuke's offense, there's reason to believe that simply inserting Kosuke instead of Edmonds into the CF platoon makes us better off as a whole next year.

 

agreed, plus edmonds' bat is probably going to deteriorate (like it was before it magically got good again).

 

i won't miss watching him play OF; he was just brutally slow and that is one thing that ain't changing.

[wade]

Should I take all this to mean that Bradley (and fill-in for DL time) in RF would more than offset any potential decline from Edmonds to Fuku in center?

[Transmogrified Tiger]

Three runs separating the two players is not really significant. Given that we were generous to Edmonds' defense and pessimistic to Kosuke's offense, there's reason to believe that simply inserting Kosuke instead of Edmonds into the CF platoon makes us better off as a whole next year.

 

agreed, plus edmonds' bat is probably going to deteriorate (like it was before it magically got good again).

 

i won't miss watching him play OF; he was just brutally slow and that is one thing that ain't changing.

 

Not that you were saying this, but to clarify, I wasn't trying to compare '09 Fukudome to '09 Edmonds. I was trying to see how '09 Fukudome would replace '08 Edmonds in the CF platoon.

 

And Wade, you should take that to mean that Fukudome in CF will likely be no difference from Edmonds was last year, on an offense+defense basis. Bradley throughout his career has been an above average defensively(a conservative estimate using UZR is +5-7 runs over a full season in RF), and as we all know he kills the ball(career .359 wOBA, .397 last 3 years, .385 projected for '09).

[UMFan83]

Great post. We don't have enough insightful posts like this on here.

[jersey cubs fan]

I'm highly skeptical.

[Rob]

I've been on enough of a defensive kick that I'm willing to say if we can't get Bradley or Hermida, I'd rather have Pie in the OF than Abreu, Dunn, Ibanez, or any of the other bats out there right now.

[nilodnayr]

Three runs separating the two players is not really significant. Given that we were generous to Edmonds' defense and pessimistic to Kosuke's offense, there's reason to believe that simply inserting Kosuke instead of Edmonds into the CF platoon makes us better off as a whole next year.

 

agreed, plus edmonds' bat is probably going to deteriorate (like it was before it magically got good again).

 

i won't miss watching him play OF; he was just brutally slow and that is one thing that ain't changing.

 

Not that you were saying this, but to clarify, I wasn't trying to compare '09 Fukudome to '09 Edmonds. I was trying to see how '09 Fukudome would replace '08 Edmonds in the CF platoon.

 

And Wade, you should take that to mean that Fukudome in CF will likely be no difference from Edmonds was last year, on an offense+defense basis. Bradley throughout his career has been an above average defensively(a conservative estimate using UZR is +5-7 runs over a full season in RF), and as we all know he kills the ball(career .359 wOBA, .397 last 3 years, .385 projected for '09).

meaning bradley is a 3.5 win guy (big health assumption)

ibanez is a 0 win guy

abreu is a 1 win guy

dunn is a 1 win guy

[nilodnayr]

Three runs separating the two players is not really significant. Given that we were generous to Edmonds' defense and pessimistic to Kosuke's offense, there's reason to believe that simply inserting Kosuke instead of Edmonds into the CF platoon makes us better off as a whole next year.

 

agreed, plus edmonds' bat is probably going to deteriorate (like it was before it magically got good again).

 

i won't miss watching him play OF; he was just brutally slow and that is one thing that ain't changing.

 

Not that you were saying this, but to clarify, I wasn't trying to compare '09 Fukudome to '09 Edmonds. I was trying to see how '09 Fukudome would replace '08 Edmonds in the CF platoon.

 

And Wade, you should take that to mean that Fukudome in CF will likely be no difference from Edmonds was last year, on an offense+defense basis. Bradley throughout his career has been an above average defensively(a conservative estimate using UZR is +5-7 runs over a full season in RF), and as we all know he kills the ball(career .359 wOBA, .397 last 3 years, .385 projected for '09).

meaning bradley is a 3.5 win guy (big health assumption)

ibanez is a 0 win guy

abreu is a 1 win guy

dunn is a 1 win guy

 

btw, just to add onto the defensive kick, 2 guys as seemingly throw ins acquired by the Mariners in the mega 12 player trade are equal to or greater than 1 win guys...Both Gutierrez and Chavez (as I mentioned in the UZR thread before they were traded) are consistant defensive freaks

 

If they stick both of them in the OF with Ichiro (merely and average defender according to UZR, although theres debate as to Ichiros UZR accuracy), then its sure going to be nice to be a FB pitcher for the Mariners

[Banedon]

I thought most defensive ratings were pretty much junk. Is that wrong?

[Transmogrified Tiger]

I thought most defensive ratings were pretty much junk. Is that wrong?

 

 

Many are. UZR has long been held up as the gold standard for defensive metrics, and is just now being made publicly available(although I think the version at fangraphs is a little different than the original, or at least uses a different company for the data).

[javy knows my name]

If they stick both of them in the OF with Ichiro (merely and average defender according to UZR, although theres debate as to Ichiros UZR accuracy), then its sure going to be nice to be a FB pitcher for the Mariners

 

I would not call Ichiro an average defender unless his arm regresses quite a bit.

 

P.S. Is this Ichiro in center or Ichiro in right?

[nilodnayr]

I thought most defensive ratings were pretty much junk. Is that wrong?

 

 

Many are. UZR has long been held up as the gold standard for defensive metrics, and is just now being made publicly available(although I think the version at fangraphs is a little different than the original, or at least uses a different company for the data).

 

 

To add on to that (we were having this discussion in the UZR thread, take a look over there)....

 

UZR isn't great. Its probably one of the best ones out there at what it does and vastly superior to zone rating and fielding percentage, etc. However, many players vary significantly from year to year. I don't think this is because the stat is falty. As Meph said, thats because due to sample size theres a ton of random variation into how well (especially an OF) plays defense. Thats why its good to use multiple years of UZR, age adjust and regress to the mean. Heres an example...

 

Ibanez's UZRs 2006-2008

 

-5.3

-23.9

-11

 

A simple, 3, 4, 5 weighting gives him a three year weighted average of -13.875. Regress it a bit to the mean and add in an age adjustment (which probably cancel each other out at his age) and I'd be confident saying hes somewhere between -10 and -15 runs in LF (aka -1 to -1.5 wins).

 

Most guys fluctuate around being average, and a nearly 20 point swing from year to year isn't terribly uncommon, but if you look at multiple years and regress and adjust you should get a pretty good idea of what the players true talent is.

[nilodnayr]

If they stick both of them in the OF with Ichiro (merely and average defender according to UZR, although theres debate as to Ichiros UZR accuracy), then its sure going to be nice to be a FB pitcher for the Mariners

 

I would not call Ichiro an average defender unless his arm regresses quite a bit.

 

P.S. Is this Ichiro in center or Ichiro in right?

 

Like I said, theres been a lot of discussion on how UZR rates Ichiro, but its good to know you wouldn't call in an average defender.

 

This is a combo of CF and RF Ichiro.

[TheDude]

Glad to see some defensive analysis working its way into the board. It's been pretty commonly dismissed around here as having value unless the sample of guys you're considering at any given position have similar offensive output. Meaning I have seen defense only relevant as a tie-breaker or bonus value on a player, not a value consideration.

[javy knows my name]

If they stick both of them in the OF with Ichiro (merely and average defender according to UZR, although theres debate as to Ichiros UZR accuracy), then its sure going to be nice to be a FB pitcher for the Mariners

 

I would not call Ichiro an average defender unless his arm regresses quite a bit.

 

P.S. Is this Ichiro in center or Ichiro in right?

 

Like I said, theres been a lot of discussion on how UZR rates Ichiro, but its good to know you wouldn't call in an average defender.

 

This is a combo of CF and RF Ichiro.

 

That was unnecessarily snotty, ryandilon

[anemic offense]

Glad to see some defensive analysis working its way into the board. It's been pretty commonly dismissed around here as having value unless the sample of guys you're considering at any given position have similar offensive output. Meaning I have seen defense only relevant as a tie-breaker or bonus value on a player, not a value consideration.

 

I agree.

 

Although it can be almost impossible to quantify the number of runs saved by a good defensive player, it should be considered when evaluating the overall impact brought to the team (as TT has done). IMO guys like Dunn and Alou are/were so HORRENDOUS in the field that it negated much of the impact they brought at the plate.

 

I estimate that Alou was good for -5 runs just in persistant stupidity in overthrowing the cutoff man and allowing runners to advance. That's also probably quite generous (to Alou).

[CubinNY]

Glad to see some defensive analysis working its way into the board. It's been pretty commonly dismissed around here as having value unless the sample of guys you're considering at any given position have similar offensive output. Meaning I have seen defense only relevant as a tie-breaker or bonus value on a player, not a value consideration.

 

I agree.

 

Although it can be almost impossible to quantify the number of runs saved by a good defensive player, it should be considered when evaluating the overall impact brought to the team (as TT has done). IMO guys like Dunn and Alou are/were so HORRENDOUS in the field that it negated much of the impact they brought at the plate.

 

I estimate that Alou was good for -5 runs just in persistant stupidity in overthrowing the cutoff man and allowing runners to advance. That's also probably quite generous (to Alou).

 

Defense is overrated in baseball by many, especially in the the corner outfield positions. A guy like Soriano gets a lot of assists because he's a bad defender. A guy like Dunn looks stupid sometimes, but most of the time his error has no game impact whatsoever.

 

A CFer or SS that can't handle his position is another matter though. However, those guys get moved from CF and SS.

 

I'll take Dunn and his errors and you can have most anyone else.

[David]

Glad to see some defensive analysis working its way into the board. It's been pretty commonly dismissed around here as having value unless the sample of guys you're considering at any given position have similar offensive output. Meaning I have seen defense only relevant as a tie-breaker or bonus value on a player, not a value consideration.

 

I agree.

 

Although it can be almost impossible to quantify the number of runs saved by a good defensive player, it should be considered when evaluating the overall impact brought to the team (as TT has done). IMO guys like Dunn and Alou are/were so HORRENDOUS in the field that it negated much of the impact they brought at the plate.

 

I estimate that Alou was good for -5 runs just in persistant stupidity in overthrowing the cutoff man and allowing runners to advance. That's also probably quite generous (to Alou).

 

Defense is overrated in baseball by many, especially in the the corner outfield positions. A guy like Soriano gets a lot of assists because he's a bad defender. A guy like Dunn looks stupid sometimes, but most of the time his error has no game impact whatsoever.

 

A CFer or SS that can't handle his position is another matter though. However, those guys get moved from CF and SS.

 

I'll take Dunn and his errors and you can have most anyone else.

 

Defense was considered so overrated that it's underrated now.

 

It's like Derek Jeter.

[Transmogrified Tiger]

Defense is overrated in baseball by many, especially in the the corner outfield positions. A guy like Soriano gets a lot of assists because he's a bad defender. A guy like Dunn looks stupid sometimes, but most of the time his error has no game impact whatsoever.

 

A CFer or SS that can't handle his position is another matter though. However, those guys get moved from CF and SS.

 

I don't really understand how misplays by CF and SS matter more than misplays by LF and RF.

[CubinNY]

Defense is overrated in baseball by many, especially in the the corner outfield positions. A guy like Soriano gets a lot of assists because he's a bad defender. A guy like Dunn looks stupid sometimes, but most of the time his error has no game impact whatsoever.

 

A CFer or SS that can't handle his position is another matter though. However, those guys get moved from CF and SS.

 

I don't really understand how misplays by CF and SS matter more than misplays by LF and RF.

They don't, but the frequency of chances and the ground to cover are substantially different. With Pie in CF it would be easier to take Dunn and Soriano at the corners. I'm not sure about Fukudome/hitting partner.

[Monco]

Defense is overrated in baseball by many, especially in the the corner outfield positions. A guy like Soriano gets a lot of assists because he's a bad defender. A guy like Dunn looks stupid sometimes, but most of the time his error has no game impact whatsoever.

 

A CFer or SS that can't handle his position is another matter though. However, those guys get moved from CF and SS.

 

I don't really understand how misplays by CF and SS matter more than misplays by LF and RF.

 

Errors are only a part of defense. How about Pie or Fukodome going into the gap to take a sure double away ? They're saving runs and shortening an inning by getting an out.Extra outs affect the pitching staff. Adam Dunn may drive in and score more runs ,but how many will he cost through the season. Pulling him for a late inning defensive replacement backfires when the bullpen blows a lead. Hes out of the game in the extra innings and one of your bench players is being used.

[sneakypower]

you took the words right out of my mouth, TT

[TheDude]

Errors are only a part of defense. How about Pie or Fukodome going into the gap to take a sure double away ? They're saving runs and shortening an inning by getting an out.

 

You can't limit it to that either. There is value in preventing a single from becoming a double due to range/arm/route, etc.

 

I wish there was a defensive metric that measured "bases saved" for lack of a better term. And perhaps it's counterpart, bases yielded. But both such concepts would be as subjective as an official 'error' is, so who knows how valuable it would be.

[biittner77]

I can't see how they'll ever be able to come up with a useful defensive measure since there are so many variables. Whose pitching and hitting, weather, field conditions, those substle nuances between parks. Not all fly balls are equal. Not all errors are equal. Errors themselves are judgement calls that often are dictated by circumstances and favor the home team.