Greene to Cards close

[Mephistopheles]

Greene's season last year was inexplicable. It just doesn't make sense. There's really no explanation unless he tried to play the entire time with a hidden wrist injury or something like that. There's struggling, and there's struggling.

 

It's not that hard to explain.

 

LD% - 20.6

BABIP - .255

 

That doesn't explain the power outage. The LD% is actually the second highest of his career. He's never been a high BABIP guy, though a large chunk of that may be due to PETCO and his flyball tendencies. Though even in a normal park he won't be anything but an average at best BABIP hitter.

[Rob]

Greene's season last year was inexplicable. It just doesn't make sense. There's really no explanation unless he tried to play the entire time with a hidden wrist injury or something like that. There's struggling, and there's struggling.

I think he had what would just be a bad year most of the time, coupled with PetCo and playing on a god awful team.

 

Or maybe Greene just lost it and is going to suck now. Thats why people who predict guys stats year after year are usually wrong. Greene could bounce back and it could be a great trade for the Cardinals, but If Greene hits 230 with a 650-680 OPS at 6.5m it's an awful trade. We will just have to wait and see what happens.

 

I'd love to see your studies on how wrong they are. I'm sure they're fascinating.

[mhuber92211]

if last year doesn't matter then what stats are you using to justify your man crush? Stats before last year? Random Stats to support a theory?

 

What matters is that Greene is not good. Has yet to be good at any point and has been injured in nearly every season.

 

This is the part that people who follow stats forget. Injuries cost a player something that cannot be quantified. Continued injuries make you worse. Greene is worse then he has been and will continue to be.

 

Find a new diamond in the rough that makes more logical sense and people might begin to pay attention again.

[Mephistopheles]

Well if the argument is, Greene's ceiling still is still X despite his 2008, that's fine. It's kind of a silly way to view the situation though, but sure, his ceiling hasn't changed.

 

A better way to view the situation would be to consider how his expected level of production has changed (or even better, how the frequency distribution of a range of output levels now looks). That expectation had sure better be taking a big hit, and that frequency distribution had better be shifting left. Simply saying the tail of the distribution (i.e., Greene's ceiling) hasn't moved doesn't tell us a whole lot.

 

And we're all doing this in our head. I don't think it's shifted the tail of it at all. I think it has just taken some of the lower percentiles down. It's flattened the lower end, if anything. His expected level of production going into last season was probably an .830 or so OPS, with a fairly good chance of hitting .850 or higher. His expected level of production going into this season is probably a little lower, around .800 with a fairly good chance of hitting .850 or higher. Not as likely as it was before 2008, but it's still significant.

[Rob]

Greene's season last year was inexplicable. It just doesn't make sense. There's really no explanation unless he tried to play the entire time with a hidden wrist injury or something like that. There's struggling, and there's struggling.

 

It's not that hard to explain.

 

LD% - 20.6

BABIP - .255

 

That doesn't explain the power outage. The LD% is actually the second highest of his career. He's never been a high BABIP guy, though a large chunk of that may be due to PETCO and his flyball tendencies. Though even in a normal park he won't be anything but an average at best BABIP hitter.

 

Yeah, his HR/FB tanked, but that BABIP is low, even for him.

 

It's probably a combination of factors... bad luck, nagging injuries, and pressing a bit much because his stat line already looked so poor.

[NonProfitCow]

if last year doesn't matter then what stats are you using to justify your man crush? Stats before last year? Random Stats to support a theory?

 

What matters is that Greene is not good. Has yet to be good at any point and has been injured in nearly every season.

 

This is the part that people who follow stats forget. Injuries cost a player something that cannot be quantified. Continued injuries make you worse. Greene is worse then he has been and will continue to be.

 

Find a new diamond in the rough that makes more logical sense and people might begin to pay attention again.

LOL

 

What do you have to do to be considered a good shortstop?

[imb]

if last year doesn't matter then what stats are you using to justify your man crush? Stats before last year? Random Stats to support a theory?

 

What matters is that Greene is not good. Has yet to be good at any point and has been injured in nearly every season.

 

This is the part that people who follow stats forget. Injuries cost a player something that cannot be quantified. Continued injuries make you worse. Greene is worse then he has been and will continue to be.

 

Find a new diamond in the rough that makes more logical sense and people might begin to pay attention again.

LOL

 

What do you have to do to be considered a good shortstop?

 

outslugging ryan theriot would be a nice start

[Mephistopheles]

Greene's season last year was inexplicable. It just doesn't make sense. There's really no explanation unless he tried to play the entire time with a hidden wrist injury or something like that. There's struggling, and there's struggling.

 

It's not that hard to explain.

 

LD% - 20.6

BABIP - .255

 

That doesn't explain the power outage. The LD% is actually the second highest of his career. He's never been a high BABIP guy, though a large chunk of that may be due to PETCO and his flyball tendencies. Though even in a normal park he won't be anything but an average at best BABIP hitter.

 

Yeah, his HR/FB tanked, but that BABIP is low, even for him.

 

It's probably a combination of factors... bad luck, nagging injuries, and pressing a bit much because his stat line already looked so poor.

 

The BABIP is low because his HR/FB tanked. Basically take out the few homers he didn't get and you have the entire drop in his BABIP. This would be because flyballs that are homers that all of a sudden don't reach the stands are usually called outs. So basically take the change in HR/FB and count all the HRs he didnt get as outs, and we've got his entire decrease in BABIP.

 

As for the cause in lower HRs. Who knows. Injuries, luck, I don't know. Still none of this explains how a guy who had an OPS over .840 on the road in 3 of the 4 previous seasons (his entire career) and 770something the other year has his OPS drop below 600 on the road.

[Transmogrified Tiger]

I have a very hard time buying Greene's "expected" offense at an .800 OPS even with Petco. He's never done it, ever. Unless you count the 46 games he played in High A at age 22. He's coming off his worst season ever, one in which he didn't even hit away from Petco. He's 29 years old now, and he's missed significant time due to injury in 4 of his 5 MLB seasons. There just isn't the evidence there to be that optimistic with a "high probability" projection.

[NonProfitCow]

if last year doesn't matter then what stats are you using to justify your man crush? Stats before last year? Random Stats to support a theory?

 

What matters is that Greene is not good. Has yet to be good at any point and has been injured in nearly every season.

 

This is the part that people who follow stats forget. Injuries cost a player something that cannot be quantified. Continued injuries make you worse. Greene is worse then he has been and will continue to be.

 

Find a new diamond in the rough that makes more logical sense and people might begin to pay attention again.

LOL

 

What do you have to do to be considered a good shortstop?

 

outslugging ryan theriot would be a nice start

done every year except last year.

what's next? You going to tell me that Lohse is better than Zambrano because of last years ERA and win totals?

[Mephistopheles]

I have a very hard time buying Greene's "expected" offense at an .800 OPS even with Petco. He's never done it, ever. Unless you count the 46 games he played in High A at age 22. He's coming off his worst season ever, one in which he didn't even hit away from Petco. He's 29 years old now, and he's missed significant time due to injury in 4 of his 5 MLB seasons. There just isn't the evidence there to be that optimistic with a "high probability" projection.

 

 

Except for the part where his OPS away from PETCO has been above .800 3 of 5 seasons (60%) and that his OPS away from PETCO has been above .850 2 of 5 seasons (40%) and that his OPS away from PETCO has been below 775 once.

 

I mean, 200 PAs on the road or 1200?

 

For clarification. When I say expected I mean outside of PETCO in a neutral setting.

[Rob]

Greene's season last year was inexplicable. It just doesn't make sense. There's really no explanation unless he tried to play the entire time with a hidden wrist injury or something like that. There's struggling, and there's struggling.

 

It's not that hard to explain.

 

LD% - 20.6

BABIP - .255

 

That doesn't explain the power outage. The LD% is actually the second highest of his career. He's never been a high BABIP guy, though a large chunk of that may be due to PETCO and his flyball tendencies. Though even in a normal park he won't be anything but an average at best BABIP hitter.

 

Yeah, his HR/FB tanked, but that BABIP is low, even for him.

 

It's probably a combination of factors... bad luck, nagging injuries, and pressing a bit much because his stat line already looked so poor.

 

The BABIP is low because his HR/FB tanked. Basically take out the few homers he didn't get and you have the entire drop in his BABIP. This would be because flyballs that are homers that all of a sudden don't reach the stands are usually called outs. So basically take the change in HR/FB and count all the HRs he didnt get as outs, and we've got his entire decrease in BABIP.

 

As for the cause in lower HRs. Who knows. Injuries, luck, I don't know. Still none of this explains how a guy who had an OPS over .840 on the road in 3 of the 4 previous seasons (his entire career) and 770something the other year has his OPS drop below 600 on the road.

 

He's shy about 4-5 HR if you consider him around an 11% HR/FB guy.

 

And even if you say he's a lower BABIP guy anyways, (and he is) he averages around .090+ LD%... which he came up 12 hits shy of. The HR/FB tanking only really accounts for half the missing hits. There's still some bad luck involved too.

[Mephistopheles]

Well couple that with the fact he only had like 250 or so balls in play, four or five more hits over the course of those ABs isn't a whole lot. The rest of the drop was random.

[Transmogrified Tiger]

I have a very hard time buying Greene's "expected" offense at an .800 OPS even with Petco. He's never done it, ever. Unless you count the 46 games he played in High A at age 22. He's coming off his worst season ever, one in which he didn't even hit away from Petco. He's 29 years old now, and he's missed significant time due to injury in 4 of his 5 MLB seasons. There just isn't the evidence there to be that optimistic with a "high probability" projection.

 

 

Except for the part where his OPS away from PETCO has been above .800 3 of 5 seasons (60%) and that his OPS away from PETCO has been above .850 2 of 5 seasons (40%) and that his OPS away from PETCO has been below 775 once.

 

I mean, 200 PAs on the road or 1200?

 

For clarification. When I say expected I mean outside of PETCO in a neutral setting.

 

Matt Holliday is an awful hitter.

 

You can't ignore what Greene did last year, especially since he's had consistent injury problems, and especially since he's past an age where you can expect a breakout. It doesn't change all those years of hitting away from Petco, but when that's the only reason for optimism it's foolish to be so bold with the expectations for him. Recent results matter.

[Cubswin11]

According to this guy a Greene trade, and shedding his salary, may allow the Padres to keep Peavy, I don't know how much I believe it though.

 

http://www3.signonsandiego.com/stories/2008/dec/03/padres-cardinals-agree-deal-will-send-greene-st-lo/?padres

[Rob]

Well couple that with the fact he only had like 250 or so balls in play, four or five more hits over the course of those ABs isn't a whole lot.

 

Not saying it is much... but it makes his line look even worse for the guys just taking a quick glance at it.

 

Give him his expected .09+LD% hits? His line jumps up to .243/.288/.377... not great, certainly... but a good glove and that bat wont kill you. Then toss in some room for improved health, and I don't have a problem taking a risk on that player... especially considering we don't stand to lose much even if Ryan Theriot plays at his peak.

[OleMissCub]

What would terrify me as a Cards fan is that last year wasn't just an off year, it was an epic disaster of biblical proportions. Players often recover from down years, but to expect someone to actually improve upon their previous "good" seasons...I dunno. Seems iffy to me, regardless of change in parks and what not.

[Rob]

What would terrify me as a Cards fan is that last year wasn't just an off year, it was an epic disaster of biblical proportions. Players often recover from down years, but to expect someone to actually improve upon their previous "good" seasons...I dunno. Seems iffy to me, regardless of change in parks and what not.

 

As a Cubs fan after last year, you should have a greater understanding for just how bad an extreme flyball hitter can look in petco... and how much better they can be getting out of that mess.

[haltz]

As for the cause in lower HRs. Who knows. Injuries, luck, I don't know. Still none of this explains how a guy who had an OPS over .840 on the road in 3 of the 4 previous seasons (his entire career) and 770something the other year has his OPS drop below 600 on the road.

What are the chances of this happening over 200 PA, given those numbers? It's not that large of a sample. He hit at home essentially like he always does.

[cubsfan26]

Greene's season last year was inexplicable. It just doesn't make sense. There's really no explanation unless he tried to play the entire time with a hidden wrist injury or something like that. There's struggling, and there's struggling.

I think he had what would just be a bad year most of the time, coupled with PetCo and playing on a god awful team.

 

Or maybe Greene just lost it and is going to suck now. Thats why people who predict guys stats year after year are usually wrong. Greene could bounce back and it could be a great trade for the Cardinals, but If Greene hits 230 with a 650-680 OPS at 6.5m it's an awful trade. We will just have to wait and see what happens.

 

I'd love to see your studies on how wrong they are. I'm sure they're fascinating.

 

 

I don't need to have studies, it's common sense that alot guys predicted stats don't happen. Maybe saying usually wrong was the wrong word, but their wrong alot. There's too much of a human factor to predict every player stats. Guys have good or bad years, some guys improve, some guys decline or get hurt, some guys have career years and some guys just lose it. Greene drop off this season is just one example. Another one off the top of my head would be who would have thought Nick Swisher would have a worse season in 2008, then he did in 2007 even though he was playing at US Cellular Field. Or even Rich Hill losing it or Ryan Dempster being awesome. So when I see somebody say my stats say the Cubs will win 88 games next year, in December I find it more funny then interesting.

[CardsFanInChiTown]

What would terrify me as a Cards fan is that last year wasn't just an off year, it was an epic disaster of biblical proportions. Players often recover from down years, but to expect someone to actually improve upon their previous "good" seasons...I dunno. Seems iffy to me, regardless of change in parks and what not.

 

 

Cesar Izturis beats the fear out of you. He toughens you up.

[OleMissCub]

As a Cubs fan after last year, you should have a greater understanding for just how bad an extreme flyball hitter can look in petco... and how much better they can be getting out of that mess.

 

I understand that PETCO is where fly balls go to die, but the dude's road stats were .212/.225/.317 last year.

 

He sucked ass everywhere he went last year. Is a change of scenery going to have that much more of an effect? Maybe he won't have a VORP in the negative digits. Horray for him.

[imb]

if last year doesn't matter then what stats are you using to justify your man crush? Stats before last year? Random Stats to support a theory?

 

What matters is that Greene is not good. Has yet to be good at any point and has been injured in nearly every season.

 

This is the part that people who follow stats forget. Injuries cost a player something that cannot be quantified. Continued injuries make you worse. Greene is worse then he has been and will continue to be.

 

Find a new diamond in the rough that makes more logical sense and people might begin to pay attention again.

LOL

 

What do you have to do to be considered a good shortstop?

 

outslugging ryan theriot would be a nice start

done every year except last year.

what's next? You going to tell me that Lohse is better than Zambrano because of last years ERA and win totals?

no, i mean a good shortstop should never slug below ryan theriot

[17 Seconds]

if last year doesn't matter then what stats are you using to justify your man crush? Stats before last year? Random Stats to support a theory?

 

What matters is that Greene is not good. Has yet to be good at any point and has been injured in nearly every season.

 

This is the part that people who follow stats forget. Injuries cost a player something that cannot be quantified. Continued injuries make you worse. Greene is worse then he has been and will continue to be.

 

Find a new diamond in the rough that makes more logical sense and people might begin to pay attention again.

LOL

 

What do you have to do to be considered a good shortstop?

 

outslugging ryan theriot would be a nice start

done every year except last year.

what's next? You going to tell me that Lohse is better than Zambrano because of last years ERA and win totals?

no, i mean a good shortstop should never slug below ryan theriot

 

and a good pitcher should never have an era higher than kyle lohse. hsit happens.

 

come on man, you know perfectly well that greene is much better than you're making him out to be right now. you're saying this stuff because he's going to the cards, plain and simple.

[17 Seconds]

As a Cubs fan after last year, you should have a greater understanding for just how bad an extreme flyball hitter can look in petco... and how much better they can be getting out of that mess.

 

I understand that PETCO is where fly balls go to die, but the dude's road stats were .212/.225/.317 last year.

 

He sucked ass everywhere he went last year. Is a change of scenery going to have that much more of an effect? Maybe he won't have a VORP in the negative digits. Horray for him.

 

he had a really bad year last year... we get it. it's unlikely to happen again.