Only the Giants

[Little Slide Rooter]

hey guys id bet money that 09 howry is more 07 howry than 08 howry

 

I'd imagine he splits the difference pretty well. The numbers last year looked kinda flukey, but he did lose a tick off his fastball and his slider isn't good enough to cover that up.

 

FLUKEY?!? Every other ball he threw ended up on waveland.

[Jehrico]

hey guys id bet money that 09 howry is more 07 howry than 08 howry

 

I'd imagine he splits the difference pretty well. The numbers last year looked kinda flukey, but he did lose a tick off his fastball and his slider isn't good enough to cover that up.

 

FLUKEY?!? Every other ball he threw ended up on waveland.

It wasn't that many...it was more like one out of three. Another third go out onto Sheffield. The last third only make it to the bleachers or the basket. Or the batter's eye.

[Rob]

hey guys id bet money that 09 howry is more 07 howry than 08 howry

 

I'd imagine he splits the difference pretty well. The numbers last year looked kinda flukey, but he did lose a tick off his fastball and his slider isn't good enough to cover that up.

 

FLUKEY?!? Every other ball he threw ended up on waveland.

 

Exactly.

 

Pitched Ball Data

 

FB
2006	- 82.8% (92.8 mph)
2007	- 86.2% (92.3 mph)
2008	- 74.8% (91.2 mph)

SL
2006	- 14.7% (84.2 mph)
2007	- 9.7% (84.4 mph)
2008	- 23.1% (83.3 mph)

 

Batted Ball Data

 

K/9
2006 - 8.8
2007 - 8.3
2008 - 7.4

BB/9
2006 - 2.1
2007 - 2.2
2008 - 1.6

LD%
2006 - 18.0%
2007 - 19.7%
2008 - 17.9%

GB%
2006 - 37.8%
2007 - 32.4%
2008 - 34.9%

IF/F
2006 - 13.5%
2007 - 14.0%
2008 - 11.7%

HR/F
2006 - 9.1%
2007 - 8.0%
2008 - 12.3%

DER
2006 - .712
2007 - .711
2008 - .656

 

Here's the conclusions we can draw pretty safely.

 

1.) He lost a tick off his fastball, and that probably accounts for the slightly reduced strikeout rate.

2.) The defense behind him fielded 8% fewer of the balls put in play behind him than they usually did.

3.) He threw the slider way more than he had in the past.

 

There's not really anything to account for that dramatic difference in his HF/F numbers though. You're pretty likely to see a regression there. Maybe not all the way, but it wont stay that high as long as the rest of his numbers are pretty stable.

[cubsfan26]

Giants just signed Jeremy Affeldt to a 2 year, 8m contract. You would think the Giants would be looking to improve other parts of the team before the bullpen.

[17 Seconds]

SAN FRANCISCO -- Reliever Jeremy Affeldt became the first of 171 free agents to agree to a contract, striking a two-year deal Monday with the San Francisco Giants.

 

Affeldt will make $8 million over the two years, a baseball source told ESPN.com's Jerry Crasnick.

 

LOLOL GIANTS

[Transmogrified Tiger]

Well that sucks, Affeldt at 2/8 without having to give picks would've been a good move for us.

[17 Seconds]

Well that sucks, Affeldt at 2/8 without having to give picks would've been a good move for us.

 

lol

[YearofDaCubs]

Well that sucks, Affeldt at 2/8 without having to give picks would've been a good move for us.

 

lol

What's funny about that? Affeldt is a good RP. I would have liked him here.

[17 Seconds]

Well that sucks, Affeldt at 2/8 without having to give picks would've been a good move for us.

 

lol

What's funny about that? Affeldt is a good RP. I would have liked him here.

 

He's not really good at all. Last season was the only one you could count as "good" in his last 5, and even then he had a 1.31 WHIP. No thanks. He was mediocre in 2007 and awful the previous 3 years. And for 8 million? We have better options that are much cheaper.

 

Have we not learned that it's dumb to give out big contracts to relievers?

[Transmogrified Tiger]

Well that sucks, Affeldt at 2/8 without having to give picks would've been a good move for us.

 

lol

What's funny about that? Affeldt is a good RP. I would have liked him here.

 

He's not really good at all. Last season was the only one you could count as "good" in his last 5, and even then he had a 1.31 WHIP. No thanks. He was mediocre in 2007 and awful the previous 3 years. And for 8 million? We have better options that are much cheaper.

 

Have we not learned that it's dumb to give out big contracts to relievers?

 

http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/free-agent-bargain-jeremy-affeldt

[17 Seconds]

Well that sucks, Affeldt at 2/8 without having to get picks would've been a good move for us.

 

lol

What's funny about that? Affeldt is a good RP. I would have liked him here.

 

He's not really good at all. Last season was the only one you could count as "good" in his last 5, and even then he had a 1.31 WHIP. No thanks. He was mediocre in 2007 and awful the previous 3 years. And for 8 million? We have better options that are much cheaper.

 

Have we not learned that it's dumb to give out big contracts to relievers?

 

http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/index.php/free-agent-bargain-jeremy-affeldt

 

So you're citing someone else's stats anbd work. That's cool, but I'm looking at his results and they are not there. Come on, the guy has never even posted a WHIP under 1.30 and we want to give him 8 mil.

[Transmogrified Tiger]

Read the article and you might understand why his results from years past aren't as relevant.

[17 Seconds]

Read the article and you might understand why his results from years past aren't as relevant.

 

No, I read it and I understand.

 

Mostly I just don't like giving out multi-year contracts to relievers, especially unproven ones. It rarely works out.

[Transmogrified Tiger]

Read the article and you might understand why his results from years past aren't as relevant.

 

No, I read it and I understand.

 

Mostly I just don't like giving out multi-year contracts to relievers, especially unproven ones. It rarely works out.

 

Affeldt signed for 2 years, if you're terrified of anything more than a 1 year deal to any reliever, then you're going to end up with a poor bullpen, especially with what the Cubs currently have to work with.

[17 Seconds]

Read the article and you might understand why his results from years past aren't as relevant.

 

No, I read it and I understand.

 

Mostly I just don't like giving out multi-year contracts to relievers, especially unproven ones. It rarely works out.

 

Affeldt signed for 2 years, if you're terrified of anything more than a 1 year deal to any reliever, then you're going to end up with a poor bullpen, especially with what the Cubs currently have to work with.

 

Not terrified, I just think it's dumb. Once Affeldt starts showing better results we'll talk.

[Transmogrified Tiger]

Read the article and you might understand why his results from years past aren't as relevant.

 

No, I read it and I understand.

 

Mostly I just don't like giving out multi-year contracts to relievers, especially unproven ones. It rarely works out.

 

Affeldt signed for 2 years, if you're terrified of anything more than a 1 year deal to any reliever, then you're going to end up with a poor bullpen, especially with what the Cubs currently have to work with.

 

Not terrified, I just think it's dumb. Once Affeldt starts showing better results we'll talk.

 

I think you're going to be awfully disappointed with the ability of relievers that will sign a one year deal. Again, given the Cubs' position they need to add a bullpen arm, and considering how happy you were with the Gregg trade, I'm guessing you're even less of a fan of trading any useful assets for one. Hoping for the best out of Gaudin/Wuertz/Samardzija/etc isn't a very good way to go about it. Signing someone with Affeldt's peripherals with no loss other than 4 million and a guaranteed spot in 2010 is about as small a price as you can ask for.

[17 Seconds]

Read the article and you might understand why his results from years past aren't as relevant.

 

No, I read it and I understand.

 

Mostly I just don't like giving out multi-year contracts to relievers, especially unproven ones. It rarely works out.

 

Affeldt signed for 2 years, if you're terrified of anything more than a 1 year deal to any reliever, then you're going to end up with a poor bullpen, especially with what the Cubs currently have to work with.

 

Not terrified, I just think it's dumb. Once Affeldt starts showing better results we'll talk.

 

I think you're going to be awfully disappointed with the ability of relievers that will sign a one year deal. Again, given the Cubs' position they need to add a bullpen arm, and considering how happy you were with the Gregg trade, I'm guessing you're even less of a fan of trading any useful assets for one. Hoping for the best out of Gaudin/Wuertz/Samardzija/etc isn't a very good way to go about it. Signing someone with Affeldt's peripherals with no loss other than 4 million and a guaranteed spot in 2010 is about as small a price as you can ask for.

 

Again, I don't like giving 4 mil a year to unproven relievers.

[Transmogrified Tiger]

Again, I don't like giving 4 mil a year to unproven relievers.

 

That's the premium you're going to have to pay. Given Affeldt's situation, it's not a terrible gamble. If you want a proven reliever, then you're going to be paying upwards of 8 figures over 3-4 years for someone like Fuentes, and a contract like that to a reliever might make you bleed out your ears given your posts in this thread.

[17 Seconds]

Again, I don't like giving 4 mil a year to unproven relievers.

 

That's the premium you're going to have to pay. Given Affeldt's situation, it's not a terrible gamble. If you want a proven reliever, then you're going to be paying upwards of 8 figures over 3-4 years for someone like Fuentes, and a contract like that to a reliever might make you bleed out your ears given your posts in this thread.

 

At least Fuentes has shown results

[Jehrico]

I'm not big on multiyear contracts for relievers either, but 2 yrs would have been doable for Affeldt. A little bit of a gamble, but not a bad one.

[UK1679666180]

Hendrickson based on value will be a better signing than Affeldt.

[SouthSideRyan]

Hendrickson's peripherals have never translated into making him a good pitcher. I don't know the reasoning behind it, but he's been at this for awhile now without success.

 

Am I the only person that has any faith in our in-house bullpen guys?

[The Other 15]

I checked his DER and BABIP. Looks like Howry was just unlucky. These guys that give up high BAA tend to have bad luck with BABIP and DER.

[UK1679666180]

Hendrickson's peripherals have never translated into making him a good pitcher. I don't know the reasoning behind it, but he's been at this for awhile now without success.

 

Am I the only person that has any faith in our in-house bullpen guys?

 

His peripherals as a starter are bad, but his work against lefties and as a reliever have been solid.

[SouthSideRyan]

Hendrickson's peripherals have never translated into making him a good pitcher. I don't know the reasoning behind it, but he's been at this for awhile now without success.

 

Am I the only person that has any faith in our in-house bullpen guys?

 

His peripherals as a starter are bad, but his work against lefties and as a reliever have been solid.

 

Touche, it is in a relatively small sample, but I have to agree with you that given what he'll probably get(1M or so?) he'd be a good signing.