College Football - Week of 11/15

[Andy]

Top 25 games

-----------------

Mississippi State at (1) Alabama (7:45 pm, ESPN)

(24) South Carolina at (3) Florida (3:30 pm, CBS)

(4) Texas at Kansas (12:30 pm, FSN/CSN)

(6) USC at Stanford (7 pm, Versus)

Indiana at (7) Penn State (12 pm, Big Ten – Regional)

(8) Utah at San Diego State (8 pm, The Mountain)

(9) Boise State at Idaho (5 pm)

(10) Ohio State at Illinois (12 pm, ESPN)

(11) Oklahoma State at Colorado (8 pm, ABC – Regional)

(12) Missouri at Iowa State (6:30 pm, FSN/CSN)

(13) Georgia at Auburn (12:30 pm)

(14) Ball State at Miami (OH) (7 pm Tuesday, ESPN2)

(16) BYU at Air Force (3:30 pm, CSTV)

(17) North Carolina at Maryland (3:30 pm, ABC – Regional)

Troy at (19) LSU (8 pm)

Boston College at (20) Florida State (8 pm, ABC – Regional)

(22) Cincinnati at Louisville (8 pm Friday, ESPN2)

California at (23) Oregon State (3:30 pm, ABC – Regional)

(25) Tulsa at Houston (8 pm, CSTV)

 

Other games of interest

------------------------------

Central Michigan at Northern Illinois (8 pm Wednesday, ESPN2)

Purdue at Iowa (12 pm, Big Ten – Regional)

Northwestern at Michigan (12 pm, ESPN2)

Notre Dame vs Navy – in Baltimore (12 pm, CBS)

Duke at Clemson (12 pm)

UL Monroe at Ole Miss (2 pm)

Minnesota at Wisconsin (3:30 pm, ABC – Regional)

Texas A&M at Baylor (4 pm)

Washington State at Arizona State (5:30 pm)

Connecticut at Syracuse (7 pm, ESPNU)

Vanderbilt at Kentucky (8 pm, ESPN2)

UCLA at Washington (10:15 pm, FSN/CSN)

 

Northern Iowa at Indiana State (12 pm)

Holy Cross at Lafayette (1 pm)

South Dakota State at Southern Illinois (3 pm)

UC Davis at Cal Poly (7 pm)

 

Other nationally televised games

-----------------------------------------

Buffalo at Akron (7 pm Thursday, ESPNU)

Virginia Tech at Miami (7:30 pm Thursday, ESPN)

Wyoming at UNLV (9 pm Thursday, CSTV)

Wake Forest at NC State (3:30 pm, ESPNU)

 

Princeton at Yale (12 pm, Versus)

[Mephistopheles]

96.7% #1 Alabama over Mississippi State

96.0% #3 Florida over #24 South Carolina

80.0% #4 Texas over Kansas

95.5% #6 USC over Stanford

98.2% #7 Penn State over Indiana

96.2% #8 Utah over San Diego State

66.4% #10 Ohio State over Illinois

87.6% #11 Oklahoma State over Colorado

90.4% #12 Missouri over Iowa State

76.3% #13 Georgia over Auburn

94.2% #14 Ball State over Miami-Ohio

53.8% Air Force over #16 Brigham Young

80.8% #17 North Carolina over Maryland

82.6% #19 Louisiana State over Troy

58.1% #20 Florida State over Boston College

72.8% #22 Cincinnati over Louisville

57.9% #23 Oregon State over California

53.2% #25 Tulsa over Houston

 

Upset Alert

Game of the Week

 

Accuracy

 

Last Week:

90-100: 5-0

80-90: 3-0

70-80: 4-1

60-70: 2-2

50-60: 1-0

 

Year to Date:

90-100: 41-4 91%

80-90: 30-3 91%

70-80: 20-11 65%

60-70: 12-8 60%

50-60: 9-8 53%

[Guest]

UC Davis at Cal Poly (7 pm)

 

We're going to lose by three touchdowns.

[Mephistopheles]

UC Davis at Cal Poly (7 pm)

 

We're going to lose by three touchdowns.

 

87.8% Cal Poly over UC Davis. Cal Poly's favored by 17 points.

[imb]

what a terrible week of football

 

wake me up on sunday, there's not one game im interested in watching

[TruffleShuffle]

UC Davis at Cal Poly (7 pm)

 

We're going to lose by three touchdowns.

 

87.8% Cal Poly over UC Davis. Cal Poly's favored by 17 points.

 

you can really do this for i-aa? what about the holy cross game?

[Mephistopheles]

Meph Challenge Week 3

 

#1 Alabama 24-10 over Mississippi State

#3 Florida 42-13 over #24 South Carolina

#4 Texas 45-24 over Kansas

#6 USC 34-6 over Stanford

#7 Penn State 37-10 over Indiana

#8 Utah 42-10 over San Diego State

#10 Ohio State 34-24 over Illinois

#11 Oklahoma State 31-28 over Colorado

#12 Missouri 45-14 over Iowa State

Auburn 24-21 over #13 Georgia

#14 Ball State 45-14 over Miami-Ohio

Air Force 27-24 over #16 Brigham Young

#17 North Carolina 35-14 over Maryland

#19 Louisiana State 27-10 over Troy

#20 Florida State 27-24 over Boston College

#22 Cincinnati 34-20 over Louisville

California 28-24 over #23 Oregon State

Houston 21-20 over #25 Tulsa

Edited November 9, 2008 by Mephistopheles

[Mephistopheles]

UC Davis at Cal Poly (7 pm)

 

We're going to lose by three touchdowns.

 

87.8% Cal Poly over UC Davis. Cal Poly's favored by 17 points.

 

you can really do this for i-aa? what about the holy cross game?

 

57.7% Lafayette over Holy Cross. Lafayette favored by a little over two points.

[TruffleShuffle]

yeah that sounds about right, both have good records and lafayette's only PL loss was against colgate, who's very good.

 

wonder if we can shake off the loss and beat indiana.

[Mephistopheles]

It doesn't hurt that Indiana has two MAC losses and just one FBS win.

[Transmogrified Tiger]

I will be in Ames on Saturday, hopefully celebrating a Big 12 North title at the end of the game. Please don't make it the fiasco from Mizzou's last trip to Ames.

[Guest]

UC Davis at Cal Poly (7 pm)

 

We're going to lose by three touchdowns.

 

87.8% Cal Poly over UC Davis. Cal Poly's favored by 17 points.

 

That sounds about right. Of course, I wouldn't be surprised if it's worse. After all, Poly did hammer us 63-28 last year, and that was in Davis.

[Andy]

Chris Fowler and Craig James can both bite me. Both have BSU ranked 25th in their AP ballots (no one has us out of the polls), and Fowler actually dropped us a spot after we destroyed Northern Illinois.

 

BSU should destroy Miami, the RedHawks are 2-7 with one of those wins over I-AA Charleston Southern and has freshmen at QB and RB. Miami has historically played us well no matter what, but we've never been remotely this good.

 

I don't care hardly at all about ND/Navy. If we lose Charlie's feet are officially in the fire, if we win this season is still annoying. This team is more frustrating than last year in a way - at least last year we knew we would be crappy each week. This team is underachieving significantly.

[Mephistopheles]

Harris Poll:

 

1. Alabama

2. Texas Tech

3. Florida

4. Texas

5. Oklahoma

 

BCS

1. Alabama

2. Texas Tech

3. 0.8798 Texas

4. 0.8640 Florida

5. 0.8444 Oklahoma

[Flames24Rulz]

UC Davis at Cal Poly (7 pm)

 

We're going to lose by three touchdowns.

 

87.8% Cal Poly over UC Davis. Cal Poly's favored by 17 points.

 

you can really do this for i-aa? what about the holy cross game?

 

57.7% Lafayette over Holy Cross. Lafayette favored by a little over two points.

 

What about the SIU-South Dakota St. game?

[Mephistopheles]

60.9% Southern Illinois over South Dakota State, Southern Illinois favored by about four points.

[Mephistopheles]

Which of the following teams have scored on less than 55% of their drives this season?

Oklahoma State, Missouri, Florida, Oklahoma, Texas and Texas Tech

 

Which of the following teams have scored a touchdown on at least half their drives this season?

Oklahoma State, Missouri, Florida, Oklahoma, Texas and Texas Tech

 

For what it's worth. North Carolina, Georgia, and Alabama scored as often as the teams mentioned above in their non-conference games, but have seen their success rates nearly halved in their conferences. Only the Big XII teams haven't.

 

For what it's worth. The ACC has played four games against the Big XII this season (winning all four and having some of their best days of the season offensively). In fact.....if you restrict the Okie State, Mizzou, Oklahoma, Texas and Texas Tech's numbers to the same opponents. You find out that the ACC teams scored on 56.3% of their drives against Big XII opponents. The five Big XII opponents scored on 56.8% of their drives against Big XII opponents. A whopping difference of 0.5%!

 

Really, guys the Big XII offenses aren't all that.

[cubweiser03]

So we are using Alabama St., Tulane, W Kentucky, Georgia Southern, Hobo State, etc as OOC and the defenses of Baylor, Colorado, ATM, and Nebraska (B12) as a 'control'. Awesome.

 

There are 5-6 teams in the Big 12 that offensively are better than 11 in the SEC. The only offense in the SEC who i would consider a true force is Florida. Nobody in the SEC comes close to Florida offensively (maybe UGA). Florida has absolutely lit every SEC defense up, how bout we use them as a control or is Florida the best spread offense ever created and nobody in the B12 is close to those guys.

[Transmogrified Tiger]

Of course the ACC won those 4 games, it was Miami v. aTm, Virginia Tech v. Nebraska, Florida State v. Colorado, and Wake Forest v. Baylor.

 

Texas, Texas Tech, Oklahoma State, Oklahoma, & Mizzou.

 

v. Nebraska

 

Mizzou scored 52 points - 7 TDs, 1 FG, a missed FG(got the ball w/ 16 seconds left in the half), and a turnover on downs run with the second team offense(drive took 8 minutes off the clock in the 4th quarter)

Texas Tech scored 37 points - 5 TDs, 2 punts, and 1 half ending drive

Oklahoma scored 55 points - 8 TDs, 1 INT, 1 punt, 1 kneel to end the first half, and 3 punts and a half ending drive with the second team offense

 

COMBINED from 1st team offenses: 20 TDs, 1 FG, 3 punts, 3 half ending drives(2 kneels, 1 long field goal)

Virginia Tech scored 33 points - 3 TDs, 4 FGs, 5 punts

 

 

v. Colorado

 

Texas scored 38 points - 5 TDs, 1 FG, 4 punts, 2 INTs, 2 half ending drives

Mizzou scored 58 points - 6 TDs, 3 FGs, 1 punt, 1 INT, 1 TD and 1 punt from second team offense

 

COMBINED from first team offenses: 11 TDs, 4 FGs, 5 punts, 3 INTs, 2 half ending drives

Florida State scored 30 points - 3 TDs, 3 FGs, 4 punts, 1 INT, 1 fumble, 1 half ending drive

 

 

v. Texas A&M

 

Oklahoma State scored 35 points - 5 TDs, 3 punts, 1 missed FG, 1 fumble

Texas Tech scored 43 points - 6 TDs, 1 FG, 1 punt, 2 INTs, 1 fumble, 1 half ending drive

Oklahoma scored 59 points - 8 TDs, 1 FG, 2 punts, 2 missed FGs, 3 drives from second team offense

 

COMBINED from first team offenses - 19 TDs, 2 FGs 6 punts, 2 INTs, 2 fumbles, 3 missed FGs, 1 half ending drive

Miami scored 34 points - 4 TDs, 2 FGs, 4 punts, 1 half ending drive

 

 

v. Baylor

 

Oklahoma scored 49 points - 7 TDs, 2 punts, 1 INT, 1 half ending drive, and 1 punt from second team offense

Oklahoma State scored 34 points - 4 TDs, 2 FG, 2 punts, 1 fumble, 1 half ending drive, 1 turnover on downs(4th and goal from Baylor 4)

Mizzou scored 31 points - 4 TDs, 1 FG, 1 punt, 2 INT, 1 fumble, 1 half ending drive

Texas scored 38 points - 5 TDs, 1 FG, 1 punt, 2 INT, 2 missed FG, 1 half ending drive

 

COMBINED from first team offenses - 20 TDs, 4 FGs, 6 punts, 5 INT, 2 fumbles, 2 missed FG, 4 half ending drives

Wake Forest scored 41 points - 5 TDs, 2 FGs, 4 punts, 2 fumbles, 2 half ending drives

[Sosa21MVP]

Penn State vs Indiana will be a blood bath. There is a good chance Mitchell Evans will get the majority of the reps at QB due to injuries to Kellen Lewis and Ben Chappell. Mitchell had been playing safety for us....actually he got hurt on Saturday too. Crap, I don't even know if we have a QB now. lol

[Mephistopheles]

blah blah blah, blah blah blah

 

Texas Tech, Oklahoma, Oklahoma State, Texas, and Missouri scored on 73 drives of 122 (59.8%) drives against Texas A&M, Colorado, Baylor and Nebraska. Miami-Florida, Wake Forest, Florida State and Virginia Tech scored on 37 of 48 (56.3%) drives against Texas A&M, Colorado, Baylor and Nebraska. The point isn't that the ACC offenses are as good as the Big XII offenses, the point is that the Big XII defenses can't stop average ACC offenses, nor Big XII offenses....meaning there's a lot of inflation among the Big XII's offensive statistics. Really, the data points to Florida being the best offense in college football, with Texas Tech following closely. Oklahoma, Missouri and Texas are a little ways behind and comparable to the elite offenses outside the Big XII, like Penn State, Georgia and others. Oklahoma State is a little ways behind even more. Comparable to a lot of the good offenses around the country. Really, Oklahoma State and Missouri overall aren't all that much better than Mississippi or any of the ACC teams that played the Big XII. The Texas, Texas Tech and Oklahoma the teams are probably not that much better than Georgia, North Carolina, Penn State, Ohio State, etc.

 

I think the Big XII is going to be in for a rude awakening come bowl season.

Edited November 10, 2008 by Mephistopheles

[Andy]

Ball State rises to 14th in the BCS. They need to pass two of Utah, Boise State and Ohio State to make the Orange Bowl. All three have lose-able games left, but the odds look pretty long.

[Transmogrified Tiger]

v. BU, CU, aTm, NU; first team offenses only

 

B12 offenses: 4.02 points per possession

ACC offenses: 2.70 points per possession

 

 

And what's this about Big 12 defenses can't stop ACC offenses? Your sample is 4 games, where the 6th, 9th, 10th, and 11th best teams in the Big 12 played the 6th, 4th, 3rd, and 2nd best teams in the ACC respectively(rankings by Sagarin). Of course they were going to do well in those games. It's like saying the Big 12 is going to dominate the bowl season because they hung a ton of points in Texas v. Arkansas, Mizzou v. Illinois, Oklahoma v. Washington, and Oklahoma State v. Washington State.

[Mephistopheles]

Ball State rises to 14th in the BCS. They need to pass two of Utah, Boise State and Ohio State to make the Orange Bowl. All three have lose-able games left, but the odds look pretty long.

 

Dude, we don't want to see North Carolina drill Ball State. Go to a decent bowl where you actually have a chance of beating your opponent.

[Mephistopheles]

v. BU, CU, aTm, NU; first team offenses only

 

B12 offenses: 4.02 points per possession

ACC offenses: 2.70 points per possession

 

I'm not saying they put the ball in the end zone as often. I'm saying that they scored as often. Again, I can make ignore these because I'm not trying to show that the offenses in the ACC are as good as those five mentioned. I am just merely making the observation that average ACC offense score a hell of a lot of against these same defenses. In the ACC, these teams generally are scoring around a third of their drives. We're just pointing out that they play in a very high offensive environment. Basically we have this analogy. Florida is scoring 900 runs while playing at Petco Park. Oklahoma is scoring 880 runs while playing at Coors Field.