Cubs-Dodgers: A look at some numbers

[Cubs 32]

Chicago Cubs 97-64 (55-26 Home/42-38 Away) +184 run differential

Los Angeles Dodgers 84-78 (48-33 Home/36-45 away) +52 run differential

 

Batting stats

Runs scored per game

Cubs: 5.31 (5.60 Home/5.06 Away...through 9/27)

Dodgers: 4.32 (4.33 Home/4.35 Away...through 9/27)

 

HR

Cubs: 184

Dodgers: 137

 

BA

Cubs: .278

Dodgers: .264

 

OBP

Cubs: .354

Dodgers: .333

 

SLG

Cubs: .443

Dodgers: .399

 

OPS

Cubs: .797

Dodgers: .732

 

OPS+ (through 9/27)

Cubs: 110

Dodgers: 95

 

Pitching stats

Runs allowed per game

Cubs: 4.17 (4.19 Home/4.16 Away...through 9/27)

Dodgers: 4.00 (3.27 Home/4.75 Away...through 9/27)

 

ERA

Cubs: 3.87

Dodgers: 3.68

 

ERA+ (through 9/27)

Cubs: 117

Dodgers: 120

 

OBP

Cubs: .316

Dodgers: .315

 

SLG

Cubs: .395

Dodgers: .376

 

WHIP

Cubs: 1.29

Dodgers: 1.29

 

K/BB

Cubs: 2.31

Dodgers: 2.51

 

Will try to add some individual stats later. Or if anyone wants to add some stats, please feel free to do so.

[jacey]

now we just have to play the games

[UMFan83]

Second half records:

 

Cubs: 40-26

Dodgers: 38-29

[MSG T]

Second half records:

 

Cubs: 40-26

Dodgers: 38-29

 

 

Unless I counted wrong, they were 15-11 against teams with winning records the second half, and 3-0 in Sept. Other than one series against the Pirates, they played the whole month of Sept against the NL west, and only 3 of those games were against the D-Backs( the only other NL West above .500).

 

The Cubs were 27-21 vs teams with a winning record in the second half( 23 more games than the Dodgers), and 11-10 in Sept, despite having clinched prior to their last two series. The Cubs have played a much tougher schedule, at least in the second half. I didn't look at the first half.

 

Does that all mean much, I doubt it. But there is an obvious difference in schedule strength.

[Cynosure]

Their overall ERA is a bit deceiving because their bullpen is awesome.

 

Our starters are levels above better than them, and starting pitching wins championships.

[UMFan83]

Their overall ERA is a bit deceiving because their bullpen is awesome.

 

Our starters are levels above better than them, and starting pitching wins championships.

 

You think so?

 

I would probably take the Cubs 1-4 over the Dodgers 1-4, but at least right now the Cubs starters have more questions than the Dodgers do. And if the Cubs have the best rotation in the NL, the Dodgers certainly have the second best.

[Soul]

Second half records:

 

Cubs: 40-26

Dodgers: 38-29

 

 

Unless I counted wrong, they were 15-11 against teams with winning records the second half, and 3-0 in Sept. Other than one series against the Pirates, they played the whole month of Sept against the NL west, and only 3 of those games were against the D-Backs( the only other NL West above .500).

 

The Cubs were 27-21 vs teams with a winning record in the second half( 23 more games than the Dodgers), and 11-10 in Sept, despite having clinched prior to their last two series. The Cubs have played a much tougher schedule, at least in the second half. I didn't look at the first half.

 

Does that all mean much, I doubt it. But there is an obvious difference in schedule strength.

 

So they played 3 games against winning teams in Sept? Wow.

[Cynosure]

Their overall ERA is a bit deceiving because their bullpen is awesome.

 

Our starters are levels above better than them, and starting pitching wins championships.

 

You think so?

 

I would probably take the Cubs 1-4 over the Dodgers 1-4, but at least right now the Cubs starters have more questions than the Dodgers do. And if the Cubs have the best rotation in the NL, the Dodgers certainly have the second best.

 

Certainly.

 

I've been following the Dodgers a lot this year because one of my good friends out there is a huge Dodgers fan and gives all the players to watch etc... we also had many bets on the season comparing the Cubs and Dodgers (which I cleaned house on FYI).

 

The Dodgers rotation is definitely second best, but their offense is not:

 

24th in Runs (Cubs 2nd)

14th in AVG (Cubs 5th)

14th in OBP (Cubs 2nd)

24th in SLG (Cubs 5th)

 

While their rotation is awesome, so is ours. The only real threats on a consistent basis will be Manny/Furcal (assuming he returns to form) and if they're hot... Loney/Ethier.

 

Overall we dwarf them as a team and I expect to see that in the NLDS. Cubs in 4.

[MSG T]

Second half records:

 

Cubs: 40-26

Dodgers: 38-29

 

 

Unless I counted wrong, they were 15-11 against teams with winning records the second half, and 3-0 in Sept. Other than one series against the Pirates, they played the whole month of Sept against the NL west, and only 3 of those games were against the D-Backs( the only other NL West above .500).

 

The Cubs were 27-21 vs teams with a winning record in the second half( 23 more games than the Dodgers), and 11-10 in Sept, despite having clinched prior to their last two series. The Cubs have played a much tougher schedule, at least in the second half. I didn't look at the first half.

 

Does that all mean much, I doubt it. But there is an obvious difference in schedule strength.

 

So they played 3 games against winning teams in Sept? Wow.

 

 

Yep. And AZ finished at 82-80. Dodgers record vs each team in Sept:

 

vs. SD 7-2

vs. AZ 3-0

vs. COL 2-1

vs. PIT 3-1

vs. SF 2-4

 

The Cubs played one team( CIN) in Sept that is worse that the Dodgers best opponent from the same month. AZ finished behind NYM, PHI, MIL, STL and HOU in the overall NL standings. In fact, the Dodgers finished behind all of those teams also.

 

Keep in mind, with their current record, the Dodgers would finish 5th in the Central, despite playing an easier second half schedule than the Cubs, Brew, Cards or Stros.

[BigbadB]

The Dodgers R/9 and ERA is directly related to the park and division they play in. 81 of their games are played in one of the top 3 worst hitting parks in baseball.

 

In other words, they would have a better average of runs per game if they played just about anywhere else, but their ERA would be worse if they played anywhere else.

 

Just about every year, the Dodgers are among the league leaders in ERA and towards the bottom in runs scored.

 

With that said, I think in a neutral park, the Cubs offense would still be ahead of the Dodgers in runs per game, and they'd be WAY ahead in ERA.

[bukie]

The Dodgers R/9 and ERA is directly related to the park and division they play in. 81 of their games are played in one of the top 3 worst hitting parks in baseball.

 

In other words, they would have a better average of runs per game if they played just about anywhere else, but their ERA would be worse if they played anywhere else.

 

Just about every year, the Dodgers are among the league leaders in ERA and towards the bottom in runs scored.

 

With that said, I think in a neutral park, the Cubs offense would still be ahead of the Dodgers in runs per game, and they'd be WAY ahead in ERA.

 

Except that the Dodgers scored at exactly the same rate on the road as at home, which is weird.

[UMFan83]

Plus how can you give the Dodgers offensive statistics when they completely overhauled their offense in the second half

 

Manny comes aboard

Blake comes aboard

Furcal over Berroa or whoever they were playing at SS

Ethier over Pierre finally

 

The offense the Dodgers had in July is completely different than the one they have now.

[BigbadB]

The Dodgers R/9 and ERA is directly related to the park and division they play in. 81 of their games are played in one of the top 3 worst hitting parks in baseball.

 

In other words, they would have a better average of runs per game if they played just about anywhere else, but their ERA would be worse if they played anywhere else.

 

Just about every year, the Dodgers are among the league leaders in ERA and towards the bottom in runs scored.

 

With that said, I think in a neutral park, the Cubs offense would still be ahead of the Dodgers in runs per game, and they'd be WAY ahead in ERA.

 

Except that the Dodgers scored at exactly the same rate on the road as at home, which is weird.

 

Notice my previous post where I said "park and division". Petco is the worst park in the league for hitting, and it's the best for pitching. San Francisco is also a better pitcher's park than hitter's park. Colorado didn't play nearly as much as a hitter's park as it has in year's past. That leaves Arizona, where it is typically a good hitter's park unless you are facing Webb, Haren and RJ.

 

Those other NLW parks are why the Dodgers road scoring is sorta in sync with their home park values, IMO.

[SouthSideRyan]

Plus how can you give the Dodgers offensive statistics when they completely overhauled their offense in the second half

 

Manny comes aboard

Blake comes aboard

Furcal over Berroa or whoever they were playing at SS

Ethier over Pierre finally

 

The offense the Dodgers had in July is completely different than the one they have now.

 

Somebody posted somewhere else that their #s weren't much better post-July. Like .1 R/G better.

[Little Slide Rooter]

I say Manny to the Dodgers was the best thing that ever happened to us. Otherwise, wed likely be facing a D-Bags team with Webb, Haren, Johson, and of course, Adam Dunn.

[UMFan83]

Plus how can you give the Dodgers offensive statistics when they completely overhauled their offense in the second half

 

Manny comes aboard

Blake comes aboard

Furcal over Berroa or whoever they were playing at SS

Ethier over Pierre finally

 

The offense the Dodgers had in July is completely different than the one they have now.

 

Somebody posted somewhere else that their #s weren't much better post-July. Like .1 R/G better.

 

Hmm...well Furcal didn't return until this week, Blake hasn't been hitting to his potential, and Ethier didn't fully replace Pierre until September I believe, but that is surprising.

[UMFan83]

TheCubReporter posted the numbers...I think you might have been mistaken SSR:

 

Pre Manny vs. Post Manny

 

RPG - 4.17 vs. 4.70

HR/G - .69 vs. 1.19

BB/G - 3.10 vs. 3.89

OBP - .321 vs. 357

SLG - .376 vs. .446

OPS - .697 vs. 803

 

That's a SIZABLE difference.

[CubinNY]

Plus how can you give the Dodgers offensive statistics when they completely overhauled their offense in the second half

 

Manny comes aboard

Blake comes aboard

Furcal over Berroa or whoever they were playing at SS

Ethier over Pierre finally

 

The offense the Dodgers had in July is completely different than the one they have now.

 

Somebody posted somewhere else that their #s weren't much better post-July. Like .1 R/G better.

 

Hmm...well Furcal didn't return until this week, Blake hasn't been hitting to his potential, and Ethier didn't fully replace Pierre until September I believe, but that is surprising.

Try to be optimistic for once.

 

The Dodgers are best team in a terrible division who the Cubs beat 5-2 in the regular season. It's not a cake walk but the Cubs should beat this team in a 5 game series. All your fretting won't make things better if they lose.

[CubinNY]

TheCubReporter posted the numbers...I think you might have been mistaken SSR:

 

Pre Manny vs. Post Manny

 

RPG - 4.17 vs. 4.70

HR/G - .69 vs. 1.19

BB/G - 3.10 vs. 3.89

OBP - .321 vs. 357

SLG - .376 vs. .446

OPS - .697 vs. 803

 

That's a SIZABLE difference.

They were also playing crap teams with bad pitchers.

[UMFan83]

Plus how can you give the Dodgers offensive statistics when they completely overhauled their offense in the second half

 

Manny comes aboard

Blake comes aboard

Furcal over Berroa or whoever they were playing at SS

Ethier over Pierre finally

 

The offense the Dodgers had in July is completely different than the one they have now.

 

Somebody posted somewhere else that their #s weren't much better post-July. Like .1 R/G better.

 

Hmm...well Furcal didn't return until this week, Blake hasn't been hitting to his potential, and Ethier didn't fully replace Pierre until September I believe, but that is surprising.

Try to be optimistic for once.

 

The Dodgers are best team in a terrible division who the Cubs beat 5-2 in the regular season. It's not a cake walk but the Cubs should beat this team in a 5 game series. All your fretting won't make things better if they lose.

 

There are two sides to every story. I'd stop worrying about whether I'm being pessimistic or not. I've already predicted the Cubs win the series, what is your problem with admitting its going to be a tough series and that the Dodgers are a better team than the one we faced in June?

 

BTW, we went 5-2 against the Dodgers but outscored them 19-18.

[UMFan83]

TheCubReporter posted the numbers...I think you might have been mistaken SSR:

 

Pre Manny vs. Post Manny

 

RPG - 4.17 vs. 4.70

HR/G - .69 vs. 1.19

BB/G - 3.10 vs. 3.89

OBP - .321 vs. 357

SLG - .376 vs. .446

OPS - .697 vs. 803

 

That's a SIZABLE difference.

They were also playing crap teams with bad pitchers.

 

That's true, but they were playing crap teams with bad pitchers in the first half. They play in the NL West. I really doubt the only reason their offense improved was because they all the sudden started playing bad teams, and not because they added 4 solid hitters to their everyday lineup. (3 technically because Furcal only played a week)

[CubinNY]

TheCubReporter posted the numbers...I think you might have been mistaken SSR:

 

Pre Manny vs. Post Manny

 

RPG - 4.17 vs. 4.70

HR/G - .69 vs. 1.19

BB/G - 3.10 vs. 3.89

OBP - .321 vs. 357

SLG - .376 vs. .446

OPS - .697 vs. 803

 

That's a SIZABLE difference.

They were also playing crap teams with bad pitchers.

 

That's true, but they were playing crap teams with bad pitchers in the first half. They play in the NL West. I really doubt the only reason their offense improved was because they all the sudden started playing bad teams, and not because they added 4 solid hitters to their everyday lineup. (3 technically because Furcal only played a week)

Look at their schedule. They played their division rivals down the stretch.

They added one great hitter at the deadline.

 

Overall, they are very mediocre and don't have a good lineup outside of Manny. If he goes into a slump they have a terrible lineup. Their only hope is that the Cubs get impatient and start swinging at junk. That's the only way they're going to win.

[SouthSideRyan]

TheCubReporter posted the numbers...I think you might have been mistaken SSR:

 

Pre Manny vs. Post Manny

 

RPG - 4.17 vs. 4.70

HR/G - .69 vs. 1.19

BB/G - 3.10 vs. 3.89

OBP - .321 vs. 357

SLG - .376 vs. .446

OPS - .697 vs. 803

 

That's a SIZABLE difference.

 

Huh, don't know where I heard otherwise.

[bukie]

TheCubReporter posted the numbers...I think you might have been mistaken SSR:

 

Pre Manny vs. Post Manny

 

RPG - 4.17 vs. 4.70

HR/G - .69 vs. 1.19

BB/G - 3.10 vs. 3.89

OBP - .321 vs. 357

SLG - .376 vs. .446

OPS - .697 vs. 803

 

That's a SIZABLE difference.

 

Huh, don't know where I heard otherwise.

 

They improved offensively about the same as the Cubs did over the same period. Remember, back when the Cubs played the Dodgers, there was no healthy Soriano, and Soto was hurting. Also, back in June, Blake DeWitt was hitting the cover off the ball at 3B, so the difference in offense between that and Casey Blake is minimal.

 

The big difference, obviously, is the upgrade from Juan Pierre to Manny Ramirez.

[UMFan83]

TheCubReporter posted the numbers...I think you might have been mistaken SSR:

 

Pre Manny vs. Post Manny

 

RPG - 4.17 vs. 4.70

HR/G - .69 vs. 1.19

BB/G - 3.10 vs. 3.89

OBP - .321 vs. 357

SLG - .376 vs. .446

OPS - .697 vs. 803

 

That's a SIZABLE difference.

They were also playing crap teams with bad pitchers.

 

That's true, but they were playing crap teams with bad pitchers in the first half. They play in the NL West. I really doubt the only reason their offense improved was because they all the sudden started playing bad teams, and not because they added 4 solid hitters to their everyday lineup. (3 technically because Furcal only played a week)

Look at their schedule. They played their division rivals down the stretch.

They added one great hitter at the deadline.

 

Overall, they are very mediocre and don't have a good lineup outside of Manny. If he goes into a slump they have a terrible lineup. Their only hope is that the Cubs get impatient and start swinging at junk. That's the only way they're going to win.

 

Down the stretch they did, just as they probably had a long stretch in the first half when they played bad teams. I mean they play in the NL West. Those numbers also include their August schedule, when they faced the folllowing teams:

 

vs. AZ

@ STL

@ SF

vs. PHI (4)

vs. MIL

vs. COL

@ PHI (4)

@ WAS

@ AZ

 

Not an impossible schedule by any means, but its not like their September schedule. The way you are wording your argument is implying that the Dodgers played nothing but easy teams for the last 2 months of the season, while their numbers are bogged down in the first half by playing only hard teams. Certainly its not the case.

 

The day before the Manny trade was made, the Dodgers put together an outfield consisting of Andruw Jones (.505 OPS), Juan Pierre (.655 OPS) and Matt Kemp (.799 OPS). Now its Manny Ramirez (1.031 OPS), Kemp (.799) and Ethier (.885). That's a sizable difference right there. They will also be upgraded offensively by replace Angel Berroa (.614 OPS) with Furcal (.764 career OPS, 1.012 in limited sample this year).

 

They are not better than the Cubs by any stretch, but its pretty clear they are significantly better right now than they were in July.