Theriot running away with the league lead...

[TruffleShuffle]

in singles...

 

 

Theriot-CHC 125

Reyes-NYM 104

Schumaker-STL 104

Guzman-WSN 102

Tejada-HOU 100

Winn-SFG 100

Atkins-COL 97

Escobar-ATL 97

Martin-LAD 95

Lee-CHC 94

Molina-STL 94

 

 

ichiro has 144, though.

[OleMissCub]

Lee-CHC 94

 

Derrek is quite the slugger these days....

[rawaction]

Lee-CHC 94

 

Derrek is quite the slugger these days....

 

Derrek actually has the most HRs on that list. Tejada, Atkins and Russell Martin are on there too. The first 2 have taken huge hits in power too.

[rynefan]

Theriot is awesome.... he's produced and has been a nice surprise.

[nilodnayr]

Theriot is awesome.... he's produced and has been a nice surprise.

 

Its really a backhanded complement though. Yes, hes produced and been a nice surprise but I wouldn't say hes awesome. I would say hes having a fairly awesome year, but as the stat shows, its because hes pacing (and I do mean pacing) the league in batted balls that fall for singles. As you can see a lot of guys on that list are not great players. Guess who lead the NL in singles for all but two years since 2001 (he came in second those years)? You guessed it (or at least you should have), Juan Pierre. Now, Pierre had a 6.0% career K rate (to Theriot's 9.8%), which is how he did it all those years, but its a rare type of player who has the contact and utter and complete lack of power that can lead the league in singles year after year.

[third eye]

Theriot is awesome.... he's produced and has been a nice surprise.

 

Its really a backhanded complement though. Yes, hes produced and been a nice surprise but I wouldn't say hes awesome. I would say hes having a fairly awesome year, but as the stat shows, its because hes pacing (and I do mean pacing) the league in batted balls that fall for singles. As you can see a lot of guys on that list are not great players. Guess who lead the NL in singles for all but two years since 2001 (he came in second those years)? You guessed it (or at least you should have), Juan Pierre. Now, Pierre had a 6.0% career K rate (to Theriot's 9.8%), which is how he did it all those years, but its a rare type of player who has the contact and utter and complete lack of power that can lead the league in singles year after year.

 

 

How does Theriot's LD% compare to Pierre's? I always got the sense that Pierre's singles total was padded by weak grounders that he was able to outrun. Theriot doesn't have that speed and it seems like the majority of his hits are line drives over or between the infielders. *subjective memory bias disclaimer*

[nilodnayr]

Theriot is awesome.... he's produced and has been a nice surprise.

 

Its really a backhanded complement though. Yes, hes produced and been a nice surprise but I wouldn't say hes awesome. I would say hes having a fairly awesome year, but as the stat shows, its because hes pacing (and I do mean pacing) the league in batted balls that fall for singles. As you can see a lot of guys on that list are not great players. Guess who lead the NL in singles for all but two years since 2001 (he came in second those years)? You guessed it (or at least you should have), Juan Pierre. Now, Pierre had a 6.0% career K rate (to Theriot's 9.8%), which is how he did it all those years, but its a rare type of player who has the contact and utter and complete lack of power that can lead the league in singles year after year.

 

 

How does Theriot's LD% compare to Pierre's? I always got the sense that Pierre's singles total was padded by weak grounders that he was able to outrun. Theriot doesn't have that speed and it seems like the majority of his hits are line drives over or between the infielders. *subjective memory bias disclaimer*

 

Predictably, the answer is a bit all over the place. Pierre had a low of 19.3 LD% and a high of 25.5%, but he was mostly around 21% with a career average of 21.9%.

 

Theriot's career is 22.4 LD% with a high of 26.6% in his insane partial 2006 (363 BABIP), had a 21% (289 BABIP) in a terrible 2007, and 23% (345 BABIP) in 2008.

 

I would say that Theriot is probably a notch above Pierre in the LD department. But the real batted ball stat that we should look at with Theriot is his FB rate. In 2006 it was 23.9, in 2007 it shot up to 30.5, and in 2008 hes only hit 19.1% FBs. That 19.1% is lowest in the game in 2008 and in the Pierre, Ichiro, Jeter, Castillo level. Which, obviously leads to a huge GB%. It seems as thought Theriot has realized that he is no Fontenot and needs to put the ball on the ground/near the ground (and do it hard) if he wants to be a productive player. So, this is all good news in the "Theriot can repeat this year" side of the ledger...except for the underlying fact that ALL of this is that when you count on putting the ball in play without power a lot to have value, you are setting yourself up to be very very vulnerable to luck. A rough BABIP year like he had in 2006 is really not that improbable. A savvy GM would sell high on Theriot this offseason with the combination of having a good year and being really cheap.

[TruffleShuffle]

So, this is all good news in the "Theriot can repeat this year" side of the ledger...except for the underlying fact that ALL of this is that when you count on putting the ball in play without power a lot to have value, you are setting yourself up to be very very vulnerable to luck. A rough BABIP year like he had in 2006 is really not that improbable.

 

it's not that improbable but it's still unlikely. if he keeps his strikeout numbers down and maintains a solid walk rate, and stops hitting fly balls as frequently as he did this year, he can be a pretty productive hitter - assuming that he doesn't have horrible luck.

 

and, while selling high isn't a bad idea, you have to remember that (a) the cubs don't have another shortstop ready to play, and (b) there isn't going to be a whole lot of money available to spend in the offseason. i just don't know that you're going to do better than a shortstop who can put up a .350-.370 OBP at just about the major league minimum.

[nilodnayr]

So, this is all good news in the "Theriot can repeat this year" side of the ledger...except for the underlying fact that ALL of this is that when you count on putting the ball in play without power a lot to have value, you are setting yourself up to be very very vulnerable to luck. A rough BABIP year like he had in 2006 is really not that improbable.

 

it's not that improbable but it's still unlikely. if he keeps his strikeout numbers down and maintains a solid walk rate, and stops hitting fly balls as frequently as he did this year, he can be a pretty productive hitter - assuming that he doesn't have horrible luck.

 

and, while selling high isn't a bad idea, you have to remember that (a) the cubs don't have another shortstop ready to play, and (b) there isn't going to be a whole lot of money available to spend in the offseason. i just don't know that you're going to do better than a shortstop who can put up a .350-.370 OBP at just about the major league minimum.

 

Frankly, "not improbable" means that its likely to happen at least once in his career and probably more. It'd be an interesting topic for Meph.

[Cynosure]

He's having his career year and will be back to his .280 AVG soon enough.

[nilodnayr]

He's having his career year and will be back to his .280 AVG soon enough.

 

He could with bad luck, but his peripherals show otherwise. Frankly, the year he is having is only lucky due to the absense of bad luck.

[badnews]

Theriot reminds me a little bit of Luis Castillo. Castillo had a couple of productive years even ignoring steals. Then some not so productive ones. What's different about this year vs. Theriot entire career in the majors and minors is that he's hitting righthanded pitching now. That's the rub on Castillo too - he'd beat up lefties and not do well against righties.

 

Of course, you can't ignore steals, when Castillo was stealing 50, 62, 48 bases that helps and Theriot is not going to do that.

[third eye]

Theriot reminds me a little bit of Luis Castillo. Castillo had a couple of productive years even ignoring steals. Then some not so productive ones. What's different about this year vs. Theriot entire career in the majors and minors is that he's hitting righthanded pitching now. That's the rub on Castillo too - he'd beat up lefties and not do well against righties.

 

Of course, you can't ignore steals, when Castillo was stealing 50, 62, 48 bases that helps and Theriot is not going to do that.

 

Ah, but in those counting stats, he was below 80% in SB%, so was he really adding production in those years? I was actually shocked to find that Pierre's SB% has been up over 80% the last two years. His speed is actually adding a marginal amount to his productivity. Theriot has been so bad in stealing bases this year that even the ESPN idiots have noted that he would be better off not trying.

[CuseCubFan69]

How many of Theriots thrown outs have been by pick offs and hit and runs?

[kjfoster 1553]

I told you guys, a single machine.

 

Yes, LLF, he is married. :grin:

[Fred Hornkohl]

Theriot is awesome !! I can feel the grit all the way out here in Algonquin !!

[SouthSideRyan]

How many of Theriots thrown outs have been by pick offs and hit and runs?

 

I can see where you're going on hit and runs, but don't understand why pickoffs should be any different than a normal CS.

[CuseCubFan69]

How many of Theriots thrown outs have been by pick offs and hit and runs?

 

I can see where you're going on hit and runs, but don't understand why pickoffs should be any different than a normal CS.

 

It's his read on a move and patterns. I was wondering if he went on the first move last year and used it to get a good jump and this year pitchers are more aware of him stealing and changing their patterns. I can't imagine his speed changing that much.

[flyseye]

Cubs starting shortstops on playoff teams in my lifetime:

 

1984- Larry Bowa - OPS+ 49

1989- Shawon Dunston - OPS+ 83

1998- Jeff Blauser - OPS+ 69

2003- Alex Gonzalez - OPS+ 81

 

2008 Theriot so far OPS+ 99

 

Theriot has been an important part of the best Cubs team I have seen in my lifetime, and I am 52. He is far from the greatest shortstop in the game, but this year he has been solid at the plate, and consistent in the field. Looking for things to belittle him over seems rather odd to me, coming as it is from Cubs fans.

 

Edit: Oops forgot, 2007 Ryan theriot OPS+ 72

Edited August 23, 2008 by flyseye

[CuseCubFan69]

Cubs starting shortstops on playoff teams in my lifetime:

 

1984- Larry Bowa - OPS+ 49

1989- Shawon Dunston - OPS+ 83

1998- Jeff Blauser - OPS+ 69

2003- Alex Gonzalez - OPS+ 81

 

2008 Theriot so far OPS+ 99

 

Theriot has been an important part of the best Cubs team I have seen in my lifetime, and I am 52. He is far from the greatest shortstop in the game, but this year he has been solid at the plate, and consistent in the field. Looking for things to belittle him over seems rather odd to me, coming as it is from Cubs fans.

 

You're 52 and no Kessinger OPS!

 

I'm thrilled with him this year and if he kept up this pace for 3 or 4 years he's be the best SS since Banks.

[bhogg]

Jesus, people. It's Ryne Theriot. He's not going to lead the league in doubles, triples, or homers. He's not going to lead in run production. That's not his game.

 

He's performing at peak level right now --- kudos to the guy.

 

He's a good ballplayer.

[rynefan]

Personally I don't care if it's luck, and I don't care at this point if he produces next year (that will change in 2009, however). He's been the most consistent everyday player on the team. He leads the league in singles, is in top ten for avg., is smart at the plate and gets on base. He's been a nice surprise this year, and it's been a LONG time since Cubs fans have had such a well-rounded shortstop to get behind. And, as is the case with Z, Soto, etc., reason to think 2008 isn't a fluke year.

[rynefan]

And, on a lighter note, if you've ever watched Cubs Read on Comcast, he blows Lilly and Lou away entertaining the kiddos (OK, Lou is pretty funny, too, but not sure the kids are getting it).

[sneakypower]

OPS

Ryan Theriot - 761

Ichiro - 759

[Skyballer]

OPS

Ryan Theriot - 761

Ichiro - 759

Ichiro is having an awful year, by the way, does anyone know why?