Jump Forward (12/08)

[CubColtPacer]

K Rod is going to get over 12 mil.

 

We could keep Wood for much less then that and then also get a home discount.

 

I think Wood will be re-signed because of his loyalty to the Cubs.

 

Exactly... plus would is no where near K Rod... Wood will probably get 4-5 Mil only.

 

Wood is making 4.2 million this year. That's after he only pitched 2 months last year because of arm injuries, and was pretty effective but not great when he returned.

 

This year, all his numbers have gotten better. In addition to that, he's now a "closer" with 24 saves already which inflates his value. His only injury was not arm related, but was a blister.

 

There's absolutely no way that he signs for so little. He'll easily get double that per year over a potential multi-year deal if not more.

[RedFlash]

You want to know what it will take to land K-Rod?

 

Rivera signed within the past yr or so a 3 yr/$45 million dollar contract to retired a "Yankee."

 

I promise you, K-Rod is going to want atleast what Rivera got---$15 mill per. He's a fantastic closer, but the Cubs already have three guys in their bullpen who can close for significanlty less coin (Wood/Marmol and Shark) then it would take K-Rod.

 

In other words, look for a team like the Brewers to make a play for Rodriguez in the offseason.

[SouthSideRyan]

6/100 is my prediction.

[treebird]

6/100 is my prediction.

 

that's going to be awwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwful.

 

i can see it now. wood collapses and blows three saves in the nlcs, everyone learns the value of the closer, cubs have no choice but to get a good one.

[Cynosure]

K Rod is going to get over 12 mil.

 

We could keep Wood for much less then that and then also get a home discount.

 

I think Wood will be re-signed because of his loyalty to the Cubs.

 

Exactly... plus would is no where near K Rod... Wood will probably get 4-5 Mil only.

 

Wood is making 4.2 million this year. That's after he only pitched 2 months last year because of arm injuries, and was pretty effective but not great when he returned.

 

This year, all his numbers have gotten better. In addition to that, he's now a "closer" with 24 saves already which inflates his value. His only injury was not arm related, but was a blister.

 

There's absolutely no way that he signs for so little. He'll easily get double that per year over a potential multi-year deal if not more.

 

That's with incentives though, right?

[CubColtPacer]

K Rod is going to get over 12 mil.

 

We could keep Wood for much less then that and then also get a home discount.

 

I think Wood will be re-signed because of his loyalty to the Cubs.

 

Exactly... plus would is no where near K Rod... Wood will probably get 4-5 Mil only.

 

Wood is making 4.2 million this year. That's after he only pitched 2 months last year because of arm injuries, and was pretty effective but not great when he returned.

 

This year, all his numbers have gotten better. In addition to that, he's now a "closer" with 24 saves already which inflates his value. His only injury was not arm related, but was a blister.

 

There's absolutely no way that he signs for so little. He'll easily get double that per year over a potential multi-year deal if not more.

 

That's with incentives though, right?

 

No. 4.2 million was his base salary that he got regardless. He then had incentives piled on top of that which could have made it closer to 8 million this year.

[rchap24]

Cubs trade Felix Pie, Josh Vitters, Carlos Marmol, Rich Hill, and CASH to the Florida Marlins for Hanley Ramirez and Kevin Gregg.

 

In a second...that trade would be unfair

[rchap24]

6/100 is my prediction.

 

ugh........no thank you!

[anabiono]

I think most of us will still be on a bender in December.

 

nice

[jersey cubs fan]

K Rod is going to get over 12 mil.

 

We could keep Wood for much less then that and then also get a home discount.

 

I think Wood will be re-signed because of his loyalty to the Cubs.

 

Exactly... plus would is no where near K Rod... Wood will probably get 4-5 Mil only.

 

Wood is making 4.2 million this year. That's after he only pitched 2 months last year because of arm injuries, and was pretty effective but not great when he returned.

 

This year, all his numbers have gotten better. In addition to that, he's now a "closer" with 24 saves already which inflates his value. His only injury was not arm related, but was a blister.

 

There's absolutely no way that he signs for so little. He'll easily get double that per year over a potential multi-year deal if not more.

 

That's with incentives though, right?

 

No. 4.2 million was his base salary that he got regardless. He then had incentives piled on top of that which could have made it closer to 8 million this year.

 

 

If Wood finishes 2008 alive, I'd think 3/30 would be pretty easy for him to get from somebody. Maybe the Cubs could keep him for 3/27.

[craig]

...Cubs started the season at $118M

 

Zambrano gets a 2.75M raise

Ramirez gets a 1.65M raise

Soriano gets a 3M raise

Lilly gets a 5M raise

Fukudome gets a 5.5M raise

Marquis gets a 3.5M raise

DeRosa gets a 750K raise

Harden will get a 3.5M raise if option is picked up

Gaudin will probably get a 1M raise in arbitration

 

Thats 25.65M in salary added right there

 

Dempster is a FA and if the Cubs try to resign him, he's going to make significantly more than the 5.5M he made this year. Kerry Wood after a All Star mostly successful year as closer will want significantly more money than the 1.75 (+ incentives) he received this year.

 

Howry (4M) is off the books, Edmonds (insignificant) is off the books, Lieber (3.5M) is off the books, Reed Johnson (1.3M) is off the books, Ward (1.2M is off the books)

 

Blanco has a 3M option (made 2.8M in 08)

 

That's 20.05M lost off the books

 

The rest of the team is making under 1M and mostly under arbitration and won't get more than 300-500k in raises (I think)

 

Meaning our payroll will roughly be at 123.60M for 17 players. You are then missing a reliever (can be filled in minors), number 3 starter (can resign Dempster for 10M or fill in minors), a closer (can use Marmol, fill in reliever spot in minors or resign Wood for lets say 5M guaranteed + incentives), a CF (both sides of the platoon), a LH bench player (Hoffpauir can fill this role), a backup catcher (can be found cheaply most likely) and a long reliever (not significant to speculate, but probably minors)

 

Lets say the Cubs resign Dempster and Wood and fill the rest of the needs internally. That brings the payroll to roughly 140M, a raise of 22M just to reach status quo. Then throw into consideration the fact that the team's ownership will change hands during the offseason, I would think its completely unrealistic to suggest that the ballclub is improved with anything other then a possible trade.

 

This is an excellent post. So we're basically at $140 just to hold status quo, and that's while letting our starting CFers (Edmonds and Johnson) go, and Blanco. Obviously we'll need to have a CFer, and I'd think if they can fund it, they'd like Johnson and possibly Edmonds back (both at greater cost), and Blanco too. May also want to pick up another relief arm from outside.

 

As I see it, the only expiring contracts you'd definitely want to let walk are Howry, Lieber, and Ward. So if we were to keep Blanco, and resign Johnson and Edmonds, in addition of course to resigning Wood and Dempster, we're looking at $150 next season.

 

That's pretty up there. This year the Yankees are the only team above $138.

[Illini Iceman]

...Cubs started the season at $118M

 

Zambrano gets a 2.75M raise

Ramirez gets a 1.65M raise

Soriano gets a 3M raise

Lilly gets a 5M raise

Fukudome gets a 5.5M raise

Marquis gets a 3.5M raise

DeRosa gets a 750K raise

Harden will get a 3.5M raise if option is picked up

Gaudin will probably get a 1M raise in arbitration

 

Thats 25.65M in salary added right there

 

Dempster is a FA and if the Cubs try to resign him, he's going to make significantly more than the 5.5M he made this year. Kerry Wood after a All Star mostly successful year as closer will want significantly more money than the 1.75 (+ incentives) he received this year.

 

Howry (4M) is off the books, Edmonds (insignificant) is off the books, Lieber (3.5M) is off the books, Reed Johnson (1.3M) is off the books, Ward (1.2M is off the books)

 

Blanco has a 3M option (made 2.8M in 08)

 

That's 20.05M lost off the books

 

The rest of the team is making under 1M and mostly under arbitration and won't get more than 300-500k in raises (I think)

 

Meaning our payroll will roughly be at 123.60M for 17 players. You are then missing a reliever (can be filled in minors), number 3 starter (can resign Dempster for 10M or fill in minors), a closer (can use Marmol, fill in reliever spot in minors or resign Wood for lets say 5M guaranteed + incentives), a CF (both sides of the platoon), a LH bench player (Hoffpauir can fill this role), a backup catcher (can be found cheaply most likely) and a long reliever (not significant to speculate, but probably minors)

 

Lets say the Cubs resign Dempster and Wood and fill the rest of the needs internally. That brings the payroll to roughly 140M, a raise of 22M just to reach status quo. Then throw into consideration the fact that the team's ownership will change hands during the offseason, I would think its completely unrealistic to suggest that the ballclub is improved with anything other then a possible trade.

 

This is an excellent post. So we're basically at $140 just to hold status quo, and that's while letting our starting CFers (Edmonds and Johnson) go, and Blanco. Obviously we'll need to have a CFer, and I'd think if they can fund it, they'd like Johnson and possibly Edmonds back (both at greater cost), and Blanco too. May also want to pick up another relief arm from outside.

 

As I see it, the only expiring contracts you'd definitely want to let walk are Howry, Lieber, and Ward. So if we were to keep Blanco, and resign Johnson and Edmonds, in addition of course to resigning Wood and Dempster, we're looking at $150 next season.

 

That's pretty up there. This year the Yankees are the only team above $138.

 

Whatever Eyre was making is also gone.

 

I think Hendry does whatever he can to dump Marquis and uses whatever money he can save to help bring back Dempster.

[TheRaven]

The Cubs have won the WS and Mark Cuban now owns the Cubs. Everybody is happy, but Cuban wants to make a big splash for 2009. What transaction do you think is possible? The top 2 possibilities that I could think of are going after Sabathia and trading for Carlos Beltran. I would think re-signing Dempster and Wood are pretty safe bets, so I didn't consider those moves.

 

If the Cubs won the World Series, I would not expect the Cubs to make major moves.

 

Cubs started the season at $118M

 

Zambrano gets a 2.75M raise

Ramirez gets a 1.65M raise

Soriano gets a 3M raise

Lilly gets a 5M raise

Fukudome gets a 5.5M raise

Marquis gets a 3.5M raise

DeRosa gets a 750K raise

Harden will get a 3.5M raise if option is picked up

Gaudin will probably get a 1M raise in arbitration

 

Thats 25.65M in salary added right there

 

Dempster is a FA and if the Cubs try to resign him, he's going to make significantly more than the 5.5M he made this year. Kerry Wood after a All Star mostly successful year as closer will want significantly more money than the 1.75 (+ incentives) he received this year.

 

Howry (4M) is off the books, Edmonds (insignificant) is off the books, Lieber (3.5M) is off the books, Reed Johnson (1.3M) is off the books, Ward (1.2M is off the books)

 

Blanco has a 3M option (made 2.8M in 08)

 

That's 20.05M lost off the books

 

 

 

The rest of the team is making under 1M and mostly under arbitration and won't get more than 300-500k in raises (I think)

 

Meaning our payroll will roughly be at 123.60M for 17 players. You are then missing a reliever (can be filled in minors), number 3 starter (can resign Dempster for 10M or fill in minors), a closer (can use Marmol, fill in reliever spot in minors or resign Wood for lets say 5M guaranteed + incentives), a CF (both sides of the platoon), a LH bench player (Hoffpauir can fill this role), a backup catcher (can be found cheaply most likely) and a long reliever (not significant to speculate, but probably minors)

 

Lets say the Cubs resign Dempster and Wood and fill the rest of the needs internally. That brings the payroll to roughly 140M, a raise of 22M just to reach status quo. Then throw into consideration the fact that the team's ownership will change hands during the offseason, I would think its completely unrealistic to suggest that the ballclub is improved with anything other then a possible trade.

 

Good post, though I think you are undervaluing both Dempster and Wood on an open market. I see Dempster easily getting 12-13, if not more if he closes out this year as well as he has. Wood will probably be looking at 7-9 million per. The saving grace for him is that he likely won't command a 4 or 5 year deal considering his past. I think the longest he can hope for is 3.

 

I think the payroll could be closer to 145M in your example after resigning Demp and Wood, maybe even a bit higher.

[TruffleShuffle]

i tremble in fear at what the cubs would have to pay harden if he stays healthy for the next 14 months.

[mul21]

Honestly, if they can get Hill somewhat straightened out, I wouldn't mind seeing both Lilly and Marquis sent packing to save some cash and be able to keep Dempster and Wood around in the off season and then start working on some kind of an extension for Harden if he stays healthy the rest of the year.

 

That gives you a rotation of Z, Demp, Harden, Marshall, and Hill for at least the next 3 years. Good all the way thru and still reasonably young at 3 spots and cheap at 2 of them.

[CubColtPacer]

Honestly, if they can get Hill somewhat straightened out, I wouldn't mind seeing both Lilly and Marquis sent packing to save some cash and be able to keep Dempster and Wood around in the off season and then start working on some kind of an extension for Harden if he stays healthy the rest of the year.

 

That gives you a rotation of Z, Demp, Harden, Marshall, and Hill for at least the next 3 years. Good all the way thru and still reasonably young at 3 spots and cheap at 2 of them.

 

The big issue I see with that rotation is that you could easily have half your rotation down by midseason. You trade Lilly and Marquis, and suddenly you lose 2 of your guys who you trust to make every start.

 

Harden, Marshall, and Hill are all huge question marks in one way or another. They give you the best production when things are going good, but they also have a high chance of being gone for at least 1/4 of the season. That's a major problem in the rotation when you have to start dipping down into your 7th and 8th starters for long stretches of the season. That makes me wary about going with that particular rotation.

[jersey cubs fan]

Honestly, if they can get Hill somewhat straightened out, I wouldn't mind seeing both Lilly and Marquis sent packing to save some cash and be able to keep Dempster and Wood around in the off season and then start working on some kind of an extension for Harden if he stays healthy the rest of the year.

 

That gives you a rotation of Z, Demp, Harden, Marshall, and Hill for at least the next 3 years. Good all the way thru and still reasonably young at 3 spots and cheap at 2 of them.

 

The big issue I see with that rotation is that you could easily have half your rotation down by midseason. You trade Lilly and Marquis, and suddenly you lose 2 of your guys who you trust to make every start.

 

Harden, Marshall, and Hill are all huge question marks in one way or another. They give you the best production when things are going good, but they also have a high chance of being gone for at least 1/4 of the season. That's a major problem in the rotation when you have to start dipping down into your 7th and 8th starters for long stretches of the season. That makes me wary about going with that particular rotation.

 

I'm not that interested in dealing away Lilly, but I wouldn't think twice about depth issues when trying to unload Marquis. If the Cubs could get somebody somewhat similar to Gallagher in a deal for Lilly, that would be a nice way to clear some payroll, but I liked him before they signed him and he's done nothing to make me like him less.

[CubColtPacer]

Honestly, if they can get Hill somewhat straightened out, I wouldn't mind seeing both Lilly and Marquis sent packing to save some cash and be able to keep Dempster and Wood around in the off season and then start working on some kind of an extension for Harden if he stays healthy the rest of the year.

 

That gives you a rotation of Z, Demp, Harden, Marshall, and Hill for at least the next 3 years. Good all the way thru and still reasonably young at 3 spots and cheap at 2 of them.

 

The big issue I see with that rotation is that you could easily have half your rotation down by midseason. You trade Lilly and Marquis, and suddenly you lose 2 of your guys who you trust to make every start.

 

Harden, Marshall, and Hill are all huge question marks in one way or another. They give you the best production when things are going good, but they also have a high chance of being gone for at least 1/4 of the season. That's a major problem in the rotation when you have to start dipping down into your 7th and 8th starters for long stretches of the season. That makes me wary about going with that particular rotation.

 

I'm not that interested in dealing away Lilly, but I wouldn't think twice about depth issues when trying to unload Marquis. If the Cubs could get somebody somewhat similar to Gallagher in a deal for Lilly, that would be a nice way to clear some payroll, but I liked him before they signed him and he's done nothing to make me like him less.

 

Agreed. I don't mind dealing Marquis away, but I'm not particularly interested in dealing Lilly. I would put both their names in discussions over the winter. If you can get something great for Lilly, then trade him and keep Marquis. If you can't, then trade Marquis if you can and keep Lilly. I wouldn't trade both of them though.

[jersey cubs fan]

Agreed. I don't mind dealing Marquis away, but I'm not particularly interested in dealing Lilly. I would put both their names in discussions over the winter. If you can get something great for Lilly, then trade him and keep Marquis. If you can't, then trade Marquis if you can and keep Lilly. I wouldn't trade both of them though.

 

If you can unload Marquis, and get something great for Lilly, there's no reason not to. I just don't know how great of a return you can get, and I don't know the specifics about his no trade protection.

[BCVM22]

If you can unload Marquis, and get something great for Lilly, there's no reason not to. I just don't know how great of a return you can get, and I don't know the specifics about his no trade protection.

 

Cot's lists full no-trade protection for Lilly. Nothing of the sort for Marquis, obviously.

[jersey cubs fan]

If you can unload Marquis, and get something great for Lilly, there's no reason not to. I just don't know how great of a return you can get, and I don't know the specifics about his no trade protection.

 

Cot's lists full no-trade protection for Lilly. Nothing of the sort for Marquis, obviously.

 

It says "no-trade protection". I don't know what that means, but others say "full no trade clause". I would imagine protection is something along the lines of a list of 10 teams they can't be traded to without approval.

[Sammy Sofa]

i tremble in fear at what the cubs would have to pay harden if he stays healthy for the next 14 months.

 

It would be worth it.

[Backtobanks]

Honestly, if they can get Hill somewhat straightened out, I wouldn't mind seeing both Lilly and Marquis sent packing to save some cash and be able to keep Dempster and Wood around in the off season and then start working on some kind of an extension for Harden if he stays healthy the rest of the year.

 

That gives you a rotation of Z, Demp, Harden, Marshall, and Hill for at least the next 3 years. Good all the way thru and still reasonably young at 3 spots and cheap at 2 of them.

 

The big issue I see with that rotation is that you could easily have half your rotation down by midseason. You trade Lilly and Marquis, and suddenly you lose 2 of your guys who you trust to make every start.

 

Harden, Marshall, and Hill are all huge question marks in one way or another. They give you the best production when things are going good, but they also have a high chance of being gone for at least 1/4 of the season. That's a major problem in the rotation when you have to start dipping down into your 7th and 8th starters for long stretches of the season. That makes me wary about going with that particular rotation.

 

I'm not advocating trading both Lilly and Marquis, but with enough advance notice the coaching staff could stretch out one or two of Gaudin/Marshall/Hart/Samardja in addition to any other players from the minors plus any free agents or players obtained in trades.

[shnsajax]

You want to know what it will take to land K-Rod?

 

Rivera signed within the past yr or so a 3 yr/$45 million dollar contract to retired a "Yankee."

 

I promise you, K-Rod is going to want atleast what Rivera got---$15 mill per. He's a fantastic closer, but the Cubs already have three guys in their bullpen who can close for significanlty less coin (Wood/Marmol and Shark) then it would take K-Rod.

 

In other words, look for a team like the Brewers to make a play for Rodriguez in the offseason.

 

The Brewers are going to have to replace their #1 and 2 starters. I doubt they will want to pay that for a closer. Not to mention the Gange debacle this season. Fielder is due a big raise and is already unhappy with the front office.

 

There is already talk that outside of CC and Teixeria that contracts are expected to be lower this offseason.

[davearm2]

Honestly, if they can get Hill somewhat straightened out, I wouldn't mind seeing both Lilly and Marquis sent packing to save some cash and be able to keep Dempster and Wood around in the off season and then start working on some kind of an extension for Harden if he stays healthy the rest of the year.

 

That gives you a rotation of Z, Demp, Harden, Marshall, and Hill for at least the next 3 years. Good all the way thru and still reasonably young at 3 spots and cheap at 2 of them.

If you're going to trade both Lilly and Marquis, then you go all-in: let Dempster go for draft picks, and sign Sabathia.

 

As someone else alluded, Hill, Marshall, Gaudin, Samardzija, Hart, Guzman, and whoever else have a cage match in the spring for the last two spots.

 

Can you imagine the look on Brewer fan's face when, after witnessing Sabathia's awesomeness firsthand in the second half of '08, the Brewers still somehow miss the playoffs, the Cubs win the WS, and then to rub it in, sign Sabathia in November?