7/25 - Fish (Johnson) @ Cubs (Demps), 1:20 CT, WGN

[Hairyducked Idiot]

The Brewers have just won 8 straight games. When a team goes on that type a run they are going to gain ground. The fact remains we have the 2nd best record in baseball. Our starting pitching has been solid and our offense is showing signs of waking up. It's only a matter of time before we pick it up.

 

People have taken a good understanding of probability and misapplied it.

 

The Brewers' 8 game-streak doesn't tell us much about the quality of the team, because of sample-sizes. That's certainly true. But their underlying ability level is irrelevant. What matters is the results in this season, not the theoretical results of a million Monte Carlo simulation-seasons. And an eight-game streak in THIS season, lucky or not, has a profound influence on their playoff odds and by extension, ours.

 

Losing the number of games in the standings that we have over the last few games is a serious matter. It can't just be shrugged off, because it does seriously change our playoff odds.

 

We are almost sure, at this point, that we are one of the two best teams in the NL. Certainly one of the three best.

 

But being one of the three best does not guarantee that you won't lose 2 games on the Brewers and 4+ games on someone else over two months. And a month ago, this team had every reason to believe it was virtually guaranteed to be in.

[Soul]

The Brewers have just won 8 straight games. When a team goes on that type a run they are going to gain ground. The fact remains we have the 2nd best record in baseball. Our starting pitching has been solid and our offense is showing signs of waking up. It's only a matter of time before we pick it up.

 

People have taken a good understanding of probability and misapplied it.

 

The Brewers' 8 game-streak doesn't tell us much about the quality of the team, because of sample-sizes. That's certainly true. But their underlying ability level is irrelevant. What matters is the results in this season, not the theoretical results of a million Monte Carlo simulation-seasons. And an eight-game streak in THIS season, lucky or not, has a profound influence on their playoff odds and by extension, ours.

 

Losing the number of games in the standings that we have over the last few games is a serious matter. It can't just be shrugged off, because it does seriously change our playoff odds.

 

We are almost sure, at this point, that we are one of the two best teams in the NL. Certainly one of the three best.

 

But being one of the three best does not guarantee that you won't lose 2 games on the Brewers and 4+ games on someone else over two months. And a month ago, this team had every reason to believe it was virtually guaranteed to be in.

 

Who would challenge us for the Wild Card, assuming the Cards do fade away and Milwaukee can't be beat? 85% is still a pretty darn good number. What were our chances last year at this time?

[C.C.]

The Brewers have just won 8 straight games. When a team goes on that type a run they are going to gain ground. The fact remains we have the 2nd best record in baseball. Our starting pitching has been solid and our offense is showing signs of waking up. It's only a matter of time before we pick it up.

 

People have taken a good understanding of probability and misapplied it.

 

The Brewers' 8 game-streak doesn't tell us much about the quality of the team, because of sample-sizes. That's certainly true. But their underlying ability level is irrelevant. What matters is the results in this season, not the theoretical results of a million Monte Carlo simulation-seasons. And an eight-game streak in THIS season, lucky or not, has a profound influence on their playoff odds and by extension, ours.

 

Losing the number of games in the standings that we have over the last few games is a serious matter. It can't just be shrugged off, because it does seriously change our playoff odds.

 

We are almost sure, at this point, that we are one of the two best teams in the NL. Certainly one of the three best.

 

But being one of the three best does not guarantee that you won't lose 2 games on the Brewers and 4+ games on someone else over two months. And a month ago, this team had every reason to believe it was virtually guaranteed to be in.

 

Who would challenge us for the Wild Card, assuming the Cards do fade away and Milwaukee can't be beat? 85% is still a pretty darn good number. What were our chances last year at this time?

 

 

And a month ago the Brewers didn't have CC. Nothing is guaranteed with half of a season left.

 

Relax and don't panic. Again, our starters have all been good since the break and the offense is showing signs of snapping out of it.

[Hairyducked Idiot]

The Brewers have just won 8 straight games. When a team goes on that type a run they are going to gain ground. The fact remains we have the 2nd best record in baseball. Our starting pitching has been solid and our offense is showing signs of waking up. It's only a matter of time before we pick it up.

 

People have taken a good understanding of probability and misapplied it.

 

The Brewers' 8 game-streak doesn't tell us much about the quality of the team, because of sample-sizes. That's certainly true. But their underlying ability level is irrelevant. What matters is the results in this season, not the theoretical results of a million Monte Carlo simulation-seasons. And an eight-game streak in THIS season, lucky or not, has a profound influence on their playoff odds and by extension, ours.

 

Losing the number of games in the standings that we have over the last few games is a serious matter. It can't just be shrugged off, because it does seriously change our playoff odds.

 

We are almost sure, at this point, that we are one of the two best teams in the NL. Certainly one of the three best.

 

But being one of the three best does not guarantee that you won't lose 2 games on the Brewers and 4+ games on someone else over two months. And a month ago, this team had every reason to believe it was virtually guaranteed to be in.

 

Who would challenge us for the Wild Card, assuming the Cards do fade away and Milwaukee can't be beat? 85% is still a pretty darn good number. What were our chances last year at this time?

 

All it would take would be 2 good months from the Cardinals, Marlins or Phillies. The odds of one of those three teams playing wildly over their heads for two months aren't that remote.

[Handlebar McSkullet]

The Brewers have just won 8 straight games. When a team goes on that type a run they are going to gain ground. The fact remains we have the 2nd best record in baseball. Our starting pitching has been solid and our offense is showing signs of waking up. It's only a matter of time before we pick it up.

 

People have taken a good understanding of probability and misapplied it.

 

The Brewers' 8 game-streak doesn't tell us much about the quality of the team, because of sample-sizes. That's certainly true. But their underlying ability level is irrelevant. What matters is the results in this season, not the theoretical results of a million Monte Carlo simulation-seasons. And an eight-game streak in THIS season, lucky or not, has a profound influence on their playoff odds and by extension, ours.

 

Losing the number of games in the standings that we have over the last few games is a serious matter. It can't just be shrugged off, because it does seriously change our playoff odds.

 

We are almost sure, at this point, that we are one of the two best teams in the NL. Certainly one of the three best.

 

But being one of the three best does not guarantee that you won't lose 2 games on the Brewers and 4+ games on someone else over two months. And a month ago, this team had every reason to believe it was virtually guaranteed to be in.

 

Who would challenge us for the Wild Card, assuming the Cards do fade away and Milwaukee can't be beat? 85% is still a pretty darn good number. What were our chances last year at this time?

 

All it would take would be 2 good months from the Cardinals, Marlins or Phillies. The odds of one of those three teams playing wildly over their heads for two months aren't that remote.

 

No... but the odds of them playing over their heads while we play wildly UNDER ours is improbable. Not impossible, but Improbable.

[Jon]

It was pretty cool to see Marshall protecting the bullpen today. It could be the closest he'll ever get to the mound. It must have been a thrill for him.

[RedFlash]

Look it's a tough loss today, but we are still in first place. As long as the Cubs can withstand the Brewers hot steak (keeping it within 3-5 game difference), I feel confident enough that in August the Cubs will turn it on, and bounce the Brewers from contention for the division.

[weis21]

Ah. Your right. Thanks for the heads up. I'll just skip the rest of the season since we know exactly what will happen.

 

That's called a strawman. You restated my argument to be something I never said and mocked it.

 

Seriously though, every team has strengths and weaknesses. Every GM makes good decisions and bad ones. I don't the Cubs will fold down the stretch because they lost a few years ago. I've got to run now but all I'm saying is that it's not a valid comparison to me. If you can make it work for you though, knock yourself out.

 

And this is an equivocation. You are trying to make things seem equal that aren't.

 

Every team has strengths and weaknesses, sure, and every GM makes good and bad decisions. But that doesn't mean the net results of either are equal. They aren't.

 

Right now, the Cubs will probably continue to be a great team and that will probably be enough to make the playoffs, where fortunately you don't have tobe the best team to win.

 

But given what I see from this team and what I've seen from past Cubs' teams that *do* have connections to this team, I think it is uncomfortably possible (though improbable) that we may not be a great team from here on out, or that we may be but variance will leave us outside the playoffs.

 

OK.

 

I restated your implied argument, not your actual argument. I didn't have to put words in your mouth, they were read between the lines. Your implied argument was that the Cubs have sucked before, are in a bad stretch, and will implode down the stretch because they are in fact the Cubs. By your definition, "the Cubs" are a poor franchise because of bad decision making by the GM and other executives. My rebuttal was that all teams make some good and some bad decisions. After all, unfortunately not all of us can predict the future.

 

I am by no means a Hendry apologist, but his tenure IMO has been average. He has pulled off some great trades (Lee/Ramirez/Harden) and some bad trades (Pierre), some good signings (Derosa) and some bad signings (Marquis). However, in hindsight, the same can be said about any GM in baseball. How is this not equal for all teams? You are using hindsight to determine the magnitude of the decisions by GM's. If Ted Lilly throws a CG SO in last years playoffs and the cubs go on to take the series then perhaps your impression of Hendry changes. Hendry, by my own admission, has not been a great GM, but he has done OK to the point he didn't run this franchise into the ground and he has put this team in a position to win. I'm not going to try to defend the Soriano signing, but Hendry, to his credit, has done all that he can to win this year.

 

The next part of your post befuddles me. You say that the cubs are a great team, but there is an "unlikely" chance they won't be from here on out. Isn't that true of all teams? Especially given the caliber of SP that the cubs employ. Sure, Lou has made some bonehead moves regarding the pen, but overall he hasn't been that bad, especially in regard to our biggest threats' manager. It seems your splitting hairs for the most part. The Cubs are obviously not a perfect team, nor do they have the perfect manager. They are going through a rough spell, but it is painstakingly obvious that it will not last considering the talent level of the players that are currently in an extreme slump. Plus, I'm hardly sold that Hendry won't upgrade the pen, but even without an upgrade it's hardly in shambles.

 

Overall:

 

Is there a chance we miss the playoffs? Sure.

 

Is the chance great enough to justify this long drawn out post, considering I've wasted most of my buzz? Probably not.