Ryan Dempsters Cubs future.

[Lefty]

i wouldn't mind keeping him around - they'd probably have to give him a low number next year (since marquis is sucking up $9.875M) and then once marquis' crappy contract is off the books, they could pay more to dempster beyond then.

 

ideally, they could dump marquis and then let gaudin/hill/marshall fill the 5th spot next year.

 

I think trading Lilly is a possibility too. He will have 2/$20 million left, not terrible in terms of money or length. We have suitable replacements in Hill and Marshall who are much cheaper.

[series65cubsfan]

I'd like to know if, given the chance, would you rather have A.J. Burnett's remaining contract at 2/24 mil., and losing talent or would you prefer Ryan at 2/20 w/o losing any talent?

[Lefty]

I'd like to know if, given the chance, would you rather have A.J. Burnett's remaining contract at 2/24 mil., and losing talent or would you prefer Ryan at 2/20 w/o losing any talent?

 

I'm not clear on the details of Burnett's opt-out clause. I figure Harden is going to spend time on the DL, but I don't think we need to deal for a starting pitcher.

[Rob]

If he ends up being a Type A, I'd let Dempster walk and collect the two draft picks.

[Little Slide Rooter]

Dempster is really going to get a lot of teams attention as a cheaper alternative to Sheets or Sabathia.

 

Zambrano: long term

Harden: 2009 option, we'll see from there

Lilly: signed through 2010, probably gone after that

Marquis: Signed through 2009, likely gone after that

Marshall, Hill, Shark, Atkins: we'll have to see what they can do.

 

Maybe Demp would be a wise investment if hed give us a home town discount. He hasnt been a big injury problem since his Tommy John. Z and Harden could be a hell of a 1-2 combo, with Demp as a great number 3, and 4-5 coming from Marshall/Hill/Shark/Atkins.

[bhogg]

What's a home town discount? The guy is making 7.3 million this year. All things considered, is a 3-4 million increase on the pay roll that big of a deal in this case?

[nilodnayr]

What's a home town discount? The guy is making 7.3 million this year. All things considered, is a 3-4 million increase on the pay roll that big of a deal in this case?

 

Well, when Lilly and Fukudome each get 5M raises, Z, Marquis, and Soriano each get 3M raises, ARam gets a 2M raise, and then you've got Harden's money and possibly resigning Wood, it probably becomes a big deal. But I think thats been the plan all along...afterall, it'll be someone elses problem.

[Amazing_Grace]

I still think the chances are somewhat slim that the Cubs keep Dempster. Dempster could easily command the same type of deal that Lilly/Padilla/Meche got last offseason, or it could be more if things keep on this pace. If he costs that much, you have to ask if it's really worth it. I don't see the Cubs doing this because I think they'll have to address the outfield again, either finding a CF that can contribute something offensively, or convincing Kosuke to move to CF and looking for a RF. The Cubs will still have Z and Harden as 1/2, Lilly as a decent 3, and that would leave Rich Hill, Sean Marshall, Gaudin, Lieber for the last two spots. I'd have Hill, Marshall and Gaudin basically have ST to win the last two spots, but bring back Lieber in case of emergency. I don't think Marquis will be an issue. I think he'll be dealt in the next two weeks unless Harden gets hurt.

 

The other problem is that you never know how smoothly an ownership transition is going to go. The team could basically be locked in limbo for most of the offseason. It may be hard to spend any money beyond current payroll, and I have to believe they'll resign Wood before Dempster. Still, I've been worried about that since we knew the team was going up for sale in the 06/07 offseason, and the Cubs have spent like there was no tomorrow. It's really odd. Most other situations in baseball where there have been ownership changes, the team is basically frozen for some period of time, but since the team was put up for sale, the team has resigned Zambrano, brought in Fukudome, and traded for Harden.

[CubFanPhilly]

What's a home town discount? The guy is making 7.3 million this year. All things considered, is a 3-4 million increase on the pay roll that big of a deal in this case?

 

Well, when Lilly and Fukudome each get 5M raises, Z, Marquis, and Soriano each get 3M raises, ARam gets a 2M raise, and then you've got Harden's money and possibly resigning Wood, it probably becomes a big deal. But I think thats been the plan all along...afterall, it'll be someone elses problem.

 

Exactly. Unless payroll is bumped to $140 mil. next season it's Wood -OR- Dempster, not both. And that's assuming 1) Pie and/or Johnson in CF and 2) you replace Howry and Eyre with young arms (Samardzija/Guzman/Cotts/Marshall/Ascanio et. al.).

[bhogg]

Dang.

 

I'd probably take Dempster over Wood.

[Transmogrified Tiger]

Increases for next year:

Z: 2.75

ARam: 1.65

Soriano: 3

Lilly: 5

Kosuke: 5.5 or 1.5 depending on how you count the signing bonus, let's just say 5.5

Marquis: 3.5

DeRosa: .75

Harden: 2.5

 

TOTAL: 24.65

 

Losses for next year:

 

Lieber(replaced by Gaudin/Marshall/Hill/etc): 3.5

Howry(replaced by Ascanio/Wuertz/Ceda/etc): 4

Eyre(replaced by Pignatiello/Cotts/Veal/etc): 3.8

Blanco(replaced by FA): 2.7(let's assume 1 mil FA for 1.7)

 

TOTAL: 13

 

Wood is making 4.2 mil, Dempster 5.5 mil.

 

HYPOTHETICAL

Wood and Dempster will both sign for 10M annually, and can be slightly backloaded

We eat the increase in Marquis' contract to trade him(also helps with our surplus of starters, particularly ones with contracts)

 

Those things happen, and we have a payroll of about ~130 million.

[CubFanPhilly]

Increases for next year:

Z: 2.75

ARam: 1.65

Soriano: 3

Lilly: 5

Kosuke: 5.5 or 1.5 depending on how you count the signing bonus, let's just say 5.5

Marquis: 3.5

DeRosa: .75

Harden: 2.5

 

TOTAL: 24.65

 

Losses for next year:

 

Lieber(replaced by Gaudin/Marshall/Hill/etc): 3.5

Howry(replaced by Ascanio/Wuertz/Ceda/etc): 4

Eyre(replaced by Pignatiello/Cotts/Veal/etc): 3.8

Blanco(replaced by FA): 2.7(let's assume 1 mil FA for 1.7)

 

TOTAL: 13

 

Wood is making 4.2 mil, Dempster 5.5 mil.

 

HYPOTHETICAL

Wood and Dempster will both sign for 10M annually, and can be slightly backloaded

We eat the increase in Marquis' contract to trade him(also helps with our surplus of starters, particularly ones with contracts)

 

Those things happen, and we have a payroll of about ~130 million.

 

If you factor Hardin and Gaudin you're looking at almost ~139 million. The Cubs are paying those two ~3.5 mil. in '08. Harden's option is $7 mil. and Guadin is arb. eligible.

[Transmogrified Tiger]

I factored in Harden, he's making 4.5M this year. His 2.5M jump is listed above. I didn't include Gaudin, Cotts, Wuertz, or Johnson since they'll be nominal increases that aren't set yet.

[CubFanPhilly]

TT

We must be working from significantly different numbers:

 

Soto       $0.50 
Lee       $13.00 
DeRosa     $5.50 
Ramirez   $16.65 
Theriot    $0.50 
Soriano   $17.00 
Pie        $0.45 
Fukudome  $12.00 

Cedeno     $0.50 
Fontenot   $0.50 
Johnson    $1.50 
Hoffpauir  $0.45 
Blanco/FA  $1.20 

Zambrano  $18.75 
Harden     $7.00 
Lilly     $13.00 
Dempster  $10.00 
Hill/Marshall/other $0.45 

Wood      $10.00 
Marmol     $0.60 
Gaudin     $2.75 
Wuertz     $1.20 
Samardzija/Hart/Ceda/Other $0.42
Marshall   $0.45 

Cash in Marquis trade:  $3.5

Total:  $137.9 mil.

[Transmogrified Tiger]

I was just going by Cot's, but it looks the difference is mainly in signing bonuses.

[neely crenshaw]

I think a lot has to do with the outcome of this season...

dempster would be a solid signing he does not have to get front end money-which he may receive from some teams. with certainly can't drop money that we have for lilly.

you never know what the market will bare but I never thought that meche would get 11 mil or that would start thinking 10 for lilly wasn't too bad! if finishes the year the way he is heading-he has to be in that catagory but will the market be the same money?

 

we have z,harden,lilly, and marquis set..hill and marshall waiting. in that case marquis' performance may hold as much of the answer to dempster's future as dempster's performance does.

[NCCubFan]

I still think the chances are somewhat slim that the Cubs keep Dempster.

I disagree. He loves playing for the Cubs, so I think he'd accept a reasonable contract. If Hendry wants him back he'll be back; Hendry always succeeds in re-signing the players he wants back.

[Tarver]

I still think the chances are somewhat slim that the Cubs keep Dempster.

I disagree. He loves playing for the Cubs, so I think he'd accept a reasonable contract. If Hendry wants him back he'll be back; Hendry always succeeds in re-signing the players he wants back.

 

That's a little too presumptuous. If he keeps this up and makes it to FA, he's going to love playing for whomever gives him the most money.

 

That said, all this talk seems a bit premature. This guy's racking up more miles on his arm than he has in half a decade; if he succumbs to fatigue/injury, he won't be in a position to dictate terms.

[nilodnayr]

I factored in Harden, he's making 4.5M this year. His 2.5M jump is listed above. I didn't include Gaudin, Cotts, Wuertz, or Johnson since they'll be nominal increases that aren't set yet.

 

Yeah, but WE aren't playing Harden 4.5M this year.

 

Thats offset by the fact that Wood's base salary is 4.2M. Hes got 3.45M in performance bonuses which he will most likely get all of.

[jersey cubs fan]

I still think the chances are somewhat slim that the Cubs keep Dempster.

I disagree. He loves playing for the Cubs, so I think he'd accept a reasonable contract. If Hendry wants him back he'll be back; Hendry always succeeds in re-signing the players he wants back.

 

That's a little too presumptuous. If he keeps this up and makes it to FA, he's going to love playing for whomever gives him the most money.

 

That said, all this talk seems a bit premature. This guy's racking up more miles on his arm than he has in half a decade; if he succumbs to fatigue/injury, he won't be in a position to dictate terms.

 

That would depend on how badly he succumbs to fatigue/injury. The pace he has set has provided a serious cushion if he does suffer setbacks. He won't need to end the season with 35 starts, 218 innings and a 1.16 WHIP and 3.05 ERA to garner tremendous interest from pitching hungry teams. Always fear the Yankees who get a lot of money off their books this year and would love to sign a guy and keep their prospects if at all possible. The only hope would be if they truly fear NL pitchers after going through some disappointing Pavano/Johnson/Brown years.

 

Hendry might have to offer a 4/44 contract before the season ends to prevent him from testing the market - because if he does finish the year close to in-line with where he's at now, he'll probably end up making much more.

[Keener98]

Not sure if this has been brought up in here or not, but would Demp be classified as a Type A Free agent if he keeps up near this pace?

[Transmogrified Tiger]

Not sure if this has been brought up in here or not, but would Demp be classified as a Type A Free agent if he keeps up near this pace?

 

I don't know how they handle players who change positions, so I can't be sure. If he keeps a nearly 150 ERA+ this year though, I think it's hard to imagine him not being Type A since he wasn't terrible as a reliever.

[Keener98]

Not sure if this has been brought up in here or not, but would Demp be classified as a Type A Free agent if he keeps up near this pace?

 

I don't know how they handle players who change positions, so I can't be sure. If he keeps a nearly 150 ERA+ this year though, I think it's hard to imagine him not being Type A since he wasn't terrible as a reliever.

 

That was my thinking as well. If hes labled a Type A, Id love to get 2 picks for him, and odds are somebody will want to sign him quick if he hits the market.

[TheDude]

Not sure if this has been brought up in here or not, but would Demp be classified as a Type A Free agent if he keeps up near this pace?

 

I don't know how they handle players who change positions, so I can't be sure. If he keeps a nearly 150 ERA+ this year though, I think it's hard to imagine him not being Type A since he wasn't terrible as a reliever.

 

That was my thinking as well. If hes labled a Type A, Id love to get 2 picks for him, and odds are somebody will want to sign him quick if he hits the market.

 

This has actually been a point of (for lack of better terms) 'anticipated minor controversy' with the FA typing, because they have no prescribed formula to measure guys that shift from either starter to reliever or reliever to starter. It's the type of topic that will fill a writer's blog for a day or a 90 second spot on PTI.

 

The concern is on the side of the departing club getting short-changed because the typing looks at a 3-year spread, with one exceptional year not necessarily swaying the value. For starters there is consideration for number of starts or innings, and for closers the number of saves. A guy like Dempster isn't going to look great in either when considering 3-year averages because he doesn't have 3 years of either, though he certainly looks stellar in just per year averages.

 

But the typing doesn't want to use per year, because you're back to having one excellent year sway the value. Unfortunately for Dempster, his 2006 and 2007 closer numbers are not type A numbers. So the real question is; how much will 2008 starter numbers weigh, despite being 1/3 of the sample, given he will be signed as a starter by whomever picks him up?

[nilodnayr]

Not sure if this has been brought up in here or not, but would Demp be classified as a Type A Free agent if he keeps up near this pace?

 

I don't know how they handle players who change positions, so I can't be sure. If he keeps a nearly 150 ERA+ this year though, I think it's hard to imagine him not being Type A since he wasn't terrible as a reliever.

 

That was my thinking as well. If hes labled a Type A, Id love to get 2 picks for him, and odds are somebody will want to sign him quick if he hits the market.

 

This has actually been a point of (for lack of better terms) 'anticipated minor controversy' with the FA typing, because they have no prescribed formula to measure guys that shift from either starter to reliever or reliever to starter. It's the type of topic that will fill a writer's blog for a day or a 90 second spot on PTI.

 

The concern is on the side of the departing club getting short-changed because the typing looks at a 3-year spread, with one exceptional year not necessarily swaying the value. For starters there is consideration for number of starts or innings, and for closers the number of saves. A guy like Dempster isn't going to look great in either when considering 3-year averages because he doesn't have 3 years of either, though he certainly looks stellar in just per year averages.

 

But the typing doesn't want to use per year, because you're back to having one excellent year sway the value. Unfortunately for Dempster, his 2006 and 2007 closer numbers are not type A numbers. So the real question is; how much will 2008 starter numbers weigh, despite being 1/3 of the sample, given he will be signed as a starter by whomever picks him up?

 

Is it 3 years? I thought it was 2.