Harden's Health?

[Ram23]

One thing that would concern me is that this is Harden's 6th season and he has only once went above 130 IP. Is his arm conditioned to go more than this? He is at around 80 IP now. If he stays healthy then by the end of August he should be around the 140-150 mark. That is when you may see a decline if he isn'r conditioned to go above 130.

[Bote McBoteface]

Hopefully I'm correct in my thinking that he is the guy from Desipio that has been basically trolling these boards. If not then I take that back.

[Jon]

I just ran the data from his last outing in Excel and came up with an average fastball velocity of 92.79 MPH. Time to go do those other games.

[third eye]

I just ran the data from his last outing in Excel and came up with an average fastball velocity of 92.79 MPH. Time to go do those other games.

 

 

Not to get too granular about this (and not to be a pain in the arse), but wont the avg velocity be heavily impacted by pitch mix? Has that been pretty constant?

[Transmogrified Tiger]

I just ran the data from his last outing in Excel and came up with an average fastball velocity of 92.79 MPH. Time to go do those other games.

 

 

Not to get too granular about this (and not to be a pain in the arse), but wont the avg velocity be heavily impacted by pitch mix? Has that been pretty constant?

 

Average fastball velocity

[third eye]

I just ran the data from his last outing in Excel and came up with an average fastball velocity of 92.79 MPH. Time to go do those other games.

 

 

Not to get too granular about this (and not to be a pain in the arse), but wont the avg velocity be heavily impacted by pitch mix? Has that been pretty constant?

 

Average fastball velocity

 

:doh: :blush:

[Jon]

I just ran the data from his last outing in Excel and came up with an average fastball velocity of 92.79 MPH. Time to go do those other games.

 

 

Not to get too granular about this (and not to be a pain in the arse), but wont the avg velocity be heavily impacted by pitch mix? Has that been pretty constant?

No, it's only looking at fastballs. I'm sure there's a better way, but I did a quick SUMIF divided by COUNTIF based on whether it was a fastball:

 

7/6 - 92.79 MPH average fastball

7/1 - 90.57 MPH average fastball - There's your point for concern

6/26 - 92.14 MPH average fastball

5/28 - 92.16 MPH average fastball

 

 

His chart from the 7/1 game:

 

http://brooksbaseball.net/pfx/speed.php?xml=http://gd2.mlb.com/components/game/mlb/year_2008/month_07/day_01/gid_2008_07_01_oakmlb_anamlb_1//pbp/pitchers/425848.xml&innings=yyyyyyyyy&sp_type=1&s_type=1

[Soul]

I just ran the data from his last outing in Excel and came up with an average fastball velocity of 92.79 MPH. Time to go do those other games.

 

 

Not to get too granular about this (and not to be a pain in the arse), but wont the avg velocity be heavily impacted by pitch mix? Has that been pretty constant?

No, it's only looking at fastballs. I'm sure there's a better way, but I did a quick SUMIF divided by COUNTIF based on whether it was a fastball:

 

7/6 - 92.79 MPH average fastball

7/1 - 90.57 MPH average fastball - There's your point for concern

6/26 - 92.14 MPH average fastball

5/28 - 92.16 MPH average fastball

 

 

His chart from the 7/1 game:

 

http://brooksbaseball.net/pfx/speed.php?xml=http://gd2.mlb.com/components/game/mlb/year_2008/month_07/day_01/gid_2008_07_01_oakmlb_anamlb_1//pbp/pitchers/425848.xml&innings=yyyyyyyyy&sp_type=1&s_type=1

 

I don't see much dropoff at all there.

 

But, given Harden's injury history, of course I'm always going to be a little concerned. Actually, I was just listening to Hendry on Mike & Mike and he was pretty open about realizing that we're taking a risk with Harden. The reward is potentially very high though.

[Transmogrified Tiger]

I think something to keep in mind is Harden's repertoire. He throws a mid 80's splitter that could be mischarted as a fastball if it doesn't have much movement, especially if he overthrows it, causing it to flatten out and jump in velocity a little bit to say 88-89 mph.

[Soul]

I think something to keep in mind is Harden's repertoire. He throws a mid 80's splitter that could be mischarted as a fastball if it doesn't have much movement, especially if he overthrows it, causing it to flatten out and jump in velocity a little bit to say 88-89 mph.

 

On that note (the splitter), I was listening to Milwaukee radio yesterday and the two bozos on there were talking about the Harden trade.

 

They said Harden could be a decent #4, which about caused me to run my truck into the ditch with laughter.

 

 

But they also claimed that Harden is "a 2 pitch pitcher now. He's afraid to throw his splitter because it will land him back on the DL."

 

Anyone know if this is true or not?

[Jon]

Here's the list for his starts following his first start back from the DL:

 

7/6 - 92.79 MPH average fastball

7/1 - 90.57 MPH average fastball

6/26 - 92.14 MPH average fastball

6/20 - 92.01 MPH average fastball

6/14 - 92.04 MPH average fastball

6/8 - 92.74 MPH average fastball

6/2 - 92.75 MPH average fastball

5/28 - 92.16 MPH average fastball

5/23 - 92.30 MPH average fastball

5/17 - 93.25 MPH average fastball

[Jon]

I think something to keep in mind is Harden's repertoire. He throws a mid 80's splitter that could be mischarted as a fastball if it doesn't have much movement, especially if he overthrows it, causing it to flatten out and jump in velocity a little bit to say 88-89 mph.

That's quite possible. On that 7/1 start, his splitter had an average velocity of 85.79 mph. He threw it 8 times.

 

The data only had him throwing it once last time out, though.

 

FS is the splitter, correct?

[Stu]

I had a dream last night that Harden got hurt on his first at bat at Wrigley. He started limping around a la Felix Hernandez at Shea a couple of weeks ago. The Wrigley crowd started groaning but then Harden waved off the trainers, got back in the box Willis Reed style and the crowd went nuts.

[RyneSandberg]

Ted Lillys velocity was down DRASTICALLY earlier in the season, it just happens to pitchers occasionally.

[Jon]

Ted Lillys velocity was down DRASTICALLY earlier in the season, it just happens to pitchers occasionally.

It's also just one start and he seemed to bounce back from it just fine in terms of velocity. It's something worth keeping an eye on, though everything with Harden's health is worth keeping an eye on.

 

To be honest, in an ideal situation, I might have preferred that this trade happen a couple of weeks later just to see how his next couple of starts go. I can't complain that it happened when it did, though.

[Soul]

Here's the list for his starts following his first start back from the DL:

 

7/6 - 92.79 MPH average fastball

7/1 - 90.57 MPH average fastball

6/26 - 92.14 MPH average fastball

6/20 - 92.01 MPH average fastball

6/14 - 92.04 MPH average fastball

6/8 - 92.74 MPH average fastball

6/2 - 92.75 MPH average fastball

5/28 - 92.16 MPH average fastball

5/23 - 92.30 MPH average fastball

5/17 - 93.25 MPH average fastball

 

I don't think you can take the 7/1 start and conclude "his velocity is in trouble." I'm not sure why people would look at that and make that conclusion, other than anti-Cub bias.

 

The fastball looks to have been pretty consistent all year long. Who knows what was going on 7/1, but if the guy comes right back to his normal velocity in his next start, it's pretty difficult to justify being concerned about that. How many times has one of our pitchers done the same?

 

Now, if it's 3 or 4 starts in a row, then yea, I think some concern is justified.

[Jon]

I don't think you can take the 7/1 start and conclude "his velocity is in trouble." I'm not sure why people would look at that and make that conclusion, other than anti-Cub bias.

 

The fastball looks to have been pretty consistent all year long. Who knows what was going on 7/1, but if the guy comes right back to his normal velocity in his next start, it's pretty difficult to justify being concerned about that. How many times has one of our pitchers done the same?

 

Now, if it's 3 or 4 starts in a row, then yea, I think some concern is justified.

Yeah. But combine that with a vague quote or two and you've got a lot of people talking about a significant drop in velocity.

 

Of course, I have a feeling nobody actually looked at his readings. When commentators and columnists mention velocity, it's based off a couple of readings on TV or with the stadium gun. It certainly isn't comprehensive.

[brinoch]

I think something to keep in mind is Harden's repertoire. He throws a mid 80's splitter that could be mischarted as a fastball if it doesn't have much movement, especially if he overthrows it, causing it to flatten out and jump in velocity a little bit to say 88-89 mph.

 

How good is PitchFX at splitter recognition?

[Soul]

I don't think you can take the 7/1 start and conclude "his velocity is in trouble." I'm not sure why people would look at that and make that conclusion, other than anti-Cub bias.

 

The fastball looks to have been pretty consistent all year long. Who knows what was going on 7/1, but if the guy comes right back to his normal velocity in his next start, it's pretty difficult to justify being concerned about that. How many times has one of our pitchers done the same?

 

Now, if it's 3 or 4 starts in a row, then yea, I think some concern is justified.

Yeah. But combine that with a vague quote or two and you've got a lot of people talking about a significant drop in velocity.

 

Of course, I have a feeling nobody actually looked at his readings. When commentators and columnists mention velocity, it's based off a couple of readings on TV or with the stadium gun. It certainly isn't comprehensive.

 

Well Stoney apparently mentioned Harden's velocity, so now in every Sox fan's mind we just acquired a pitcher who's arm is shredded. And that immediately starts radiating out on every Chicago radio station, and their message boards. Then Milwaukee picks it up and runs with it.

 

So yeah, you're right. There's always concern with a guy like Harden, but for now the velocity has been fine.

 

I will give Sox fans some credit though. I was listening to B&B yesterday afternoon, and a couple Sox fans called in and said we just acquired a clear top of the rotation guy, and that Hendry pulled off a good deal.

[Jon]

It's not injury related, but does someone want to try to explain this?

 

http://www.fangraphs.com/graphs/1772_P_season_full_9_20080708.png

 

http://www.fangraphs.com/graphs/1772_P_daily_full_9_20080708.png

 

http://www.fangraphs.com/graphs/1772_P_season_full_4_20080708.png

 

He is giving up a lot of flies, although it appears that the rates are just starting to head in the right direction.

[RammyFanny]

One other scout who watched said Harden has changed since the injuries, throwing "only fastballs and changeups, no sliders or splitters," and that he topped out about 90-92 m.p.h. on the radar gun. Earlier in the year his fastball had been clocked at 94 m.p.h.

http://chicagosports.chicagotribune.com/sports/baseball/cubs/cs-080708-rich-harden-chicago-cubs-trade,1,3779313.story

 

Honesly, you'd think it's bad news to find out he's only throwing 2 pitches, but outside of his last 2 starts (which weren't terrible), he's still been unhittable, so if it let's him pitch more innings i'm fine.

 

I'm assuming they are talking about since his last trip to the DL right? Or are they just talking about since the recent dead arm start?

[David]

Well, that "topping out" at 90-92 is obviously a load of crap.

[jersey cubs fan]

If he's throwing fewer splitters, that could explain the decrease in ground balls. Also, since hanging splitters are a HR waiting to happen, perhaps that is why his flyballs are up while the HR are down.

[Guest]

Well, that "topping out" at 90-92 is obviously a load of crap.

 

92, 97...close enough.

[badger1679666666]

His velocity is fine; Stone is a moron.

 

This bears quoting for it's truthiness.