Rotation Vs Cardinals

[vance_the_cubs_fan]

It appears that Marshall won't get sent down when Zambrano is activated on Friday.

 

Link.

 

Rotation roulette: Lou Piniella said all systems are go for Carlos Zambrano to start Friday's series opener in St. Louis.

 

"He threw today, and he threw very well," Piniella said.

 

The manager then added that he'd follow Zambrano with lefties Sean Marshall and Ted Lilly, in either order, to face the Cardinals. That would push righty Jason Marquis into next week against the Reds.

 

"You look a the Cardinals, and they're 11 games over (. 500) against right-handers and 1 game over against lefties," Piniella said. "That leaves me to believe we have a better chance with left-handers. It remains to be seen. But just looking at the numbers, and we go by numbers here, plus we go on how a guy's throwing. Really, Marshall threw the ball really well against the White Sox the other day."

[JWCUB]

I hope Marshall pitches a CG shutout. And the Indians have scouts there. :beg:

[CubColtPacer]

St. Louis is actually virtually identical against left-handers than they are against right-handers, so the reasoning is very suspect.

 

I don't really mind giving Marshall one more start though, so I'm not opposed to this move. It's just not reasoned out very well.

 

The question then becomes-if you're going to send Marshall down right after the game, who are you going to call up? At that point, you've already sent both Murton and Patterson down on Thursday and Friday (unless they shock us and go without a bullpen arm for the weekend, which I doubt). That might be Hoffpauir's chance to sneak in there for a few days, as there won't really be anyone else that fits any better with the current team.

[Little Slide Rooter]

So does this mean that Gallaghers left out in the cold and on his way back to Iowa, or will Lou dispatch a reliever, Cotts or Ascanio and hes just giving Marshall another shot? COuld he be going with an extra pitcher until Soriano returns?

[Tracer Bullet]

St. Louis is actually virtually identical against left-handers than they are against right-handers, so the reasoning is very suspect.

 

I don't really mind giving Marshall one more start though, so I'm not opposed to this move. It's just not reasoned out very well.

 

The question then becomes-if you're going to send Marshall down right after the game, who are you going to call up? At that point, you've already sent both Murton and Patterson down on Thursday and Friday (unless they shock us and go without a bullpen arm for the weekend, which I doubt). That might be Hoffpauir's chance to sneak in there for a few days, as there won't really be anyone else that fits any better with the current team.

 

Yeah, it looks like he's going on WL record rather than actual performance against LHP v RHP (OPS against or something). Seems like an odd way to make that decision. Is it better to "go by the numbers" if you're going to use the wrong numbers to make decisions?

[CubColtPacer]

So does this mean that Gallaghers left out in the cold and on his way back to Iowa, or will Lou dispatch a reliever, Cotts or Ascanio and hes just giving Marshall another shot? COuld he be going with an extra pitcher until Soriano returns?

 

Gallagher's not leaving Chicago at this point. I think Lou's comments and genuine surprise about how good he was during last Saturday's FOX broadcast kind of proved that. Lou was pretty glowing about Gallagher, even though Gallagher had already given up 5 runs that day.

 

Someone in another thread brought up a good point. This might be Marshall's last start, but they might send him to the Chicago bullpen after that. They might go with 13 pitchers until he can get down there and available to go, or they might go ahead and send out a reliever now.

Edited July 2, 2008 by CubColtPacer

[vance_the_cubs_fan]

If it pushes Marquis back a day, I'm all for it.

[soapy]

I guess I'm torn. I definitely prefer Marshall over Marquis vs. the Cardinals, but Marshall definitely matches up better against the Reds than Marquis. Lou's reasoning is weird, but I guess I prefer the better pitcher (Marshall) going against the biggest competition for the division (as of now).

[CubColtPacer]

I guess I'm torn. I definitely prefer Marshall over Marquis vs. the Cardinals, but Marshall definitely matches up better against the Reds than Marquis. Lou's reasoning is weird, but I guess I prefer the better pitcher (Marshall) going against the biggest competition for the division (as of now).

 

Surprisingly enough, that's not quite true. The Reds cannot hit right-handed pitching so far this year. They have a .706 OPS against right-handers and a .766 against left-handers. I'm still worried about Marquis against the Reds because I can't shake the thought that they are so heavy with left-handed power, but the stats haven't supported that so far this year.

[Transmogrified Tiger]

It looks like Marquis will be matched up against Daryl Thompson, who's making his 3rd start today, and hasn't been very good(6 BB to 4 K, 1.80 WHIP). On the other hand, Sunday's matchup is against Wellemeyer, who's been injured and knocked around recently. Is Sunday's game the Sunday Night game? Maybe Lou thinks it's funny to have the same guy pitch in that game two weeks in a row.

[soapy]

I guess I'm torn. I definitely prefer Marshall over Marquis vs. the Cardinals, but Marshall definitely matches up better against the Reds than Marquis. Lou's reasoning is weird, but I guess I prefer the better pitcher (Marshall) going against the biggest competition for the division (as of now).

 

Surprisingly enough, that's not quite true. The Reds cannot hit right-handed pitching so far this year. They have a .706 OPS against right-handers and a .766 against left-handers. I'm still worried about Marquis against the Reds because I can't shake the thought that they are so heavy with left-handed power, but the stats haven't supported that so far this year.

 

interesting. i didn't look it up (obviously) and just assumed.

[Laura]

Lou hasn't been able to resist tinkering with the rotation all year, and he's not going to stop now. I suspect the Gallagher/Marshall starting/bullpen situation will remain fluid in the short term.

[twothousandfive]

If it pushes Marquis back a day, I'm all for it.

 

I heard about the change on the pre-game, and loved it. It means Marquis only gets one more start before the break. And clearly, Marquis is the odd-man out when it comes to adjusting the rotation -- I'm sure Z, Lilly and Dempster will all get special consideration for their effectiveness. Gallagher will get special considerations for his age (they may go the extra mile to keep him on a regular schedule with a lower pitch count) and Marquis just has to deal with it.

 

It might even keep the pressure on Marquis to not have back-to-back stinkers, and maybe that will work out. It is also possible Marquis really tires as they year goes on. I remember Piniella mentioning something like that last year (trying to find a way to keep him strong).

 

I've been convinced since he didn't pitch in the post-season that Marquis is the first guy pulled from the rotation when something better comes along, and this confirms it for me. Piniella didn't let him get away with mouthing off in the spring, and had made a few trips to the mound to chew out Marquis this year.

 

If somehow this keeps Marquis' second half starts to 12 or less (versus 18 prior to the break) that's good -- and offers the possibility that Marquis can keep his ERA near 4.5, as opposed to the full extra run he's let up in the second half for the last three years.

[nolanwood]

St. Louis is actually virtually identical against left-handers than they are against right-handers, so the reasoning is very suspect.

 

I don't really mind giving Marshall one more start though, so I'm not opposed to this move. It's just not reasoned out very well.

 

The question then becomes-if you're going to send Marshall down right after the game, who are you going to call up? At that point, you've already sent both Murton and Patterson down on Thursday and Friday (unless they shock us and go without a bullpen arm for the weekend, which I doubt). That might be Hoffpauir's chance to sneak in there for a few days, as there won't really be anyone else that fits any better with the current team.

 

Yeah, it looks like he's going on WL record rather than actual performance against LHP v RHP (OPS against or something). Seems like an odd way to make that decision. Is it better to "go by the numbers" if you're going to use the wrong numbers to make decisions?

 

 

AVG vs LH vs RH

 

Pujols .442 .315

Molina .380 .260

Ryan .351 .222

Miles .324 .328

Kennedy .286 .258

Izturis .279 .220

Glaus .265 .271

Ludwick .237 .311

Ankiel .210 .280

Schumaker .176 .338

Barton .243 .271

Duncan .107 .261

 

 

I'd much rather take the gamble on Molina, Ryan, Miles , Kennedy and Itzuris vs LH than Ankiel, Ludwick and Schumaker vs RH. OPS yields similar results...

Edited July 2, 2008 by nolanwood

[davearm2]

STL vs. RHP: .276/.348/.426/.774 (2031 AB)

STL vs. LHP: .270/.356/.416 /.772 (902 AB)

[Keener98]

STL vs. RHP: .276/.348/.426/.774 (2031 AB)

STL vs. LHP: .270/.356/.416 /.772 (902 AB)

 

Damn Lous a genius playing the percentages on this one........ :D

[Tracer Bullet]

STL vs. RHP: .276/.348/.426/.774 (2031 AB)

STL vs. LHP: .270/.356/.416 /.772 (902 AB)

 

Baseball reference has the OPS as .775 v. 773, but yeah, I have no idea what nolanwood is looking at.

[nolanwood]

Baseball reference has the OPS as .775 v. 773, but yeah, I have no idea what nolanwood is looking at.

 

 

INDIVIDUAL STATS ARE WHAT I"M LOOKING AT. How was that not clear by the #'s I posted and my comment "I'd much rather take the gamble on Molina, Ryan, Miles , Kennedy and Itzuris vs LH than Ankiel, Ludwick and Schumaker vs RH."?

[Tracer Bullet]

Baseball reference has the OPS as .775 v. 773, but yeah, I have no idea what nolanwood is looking at.

 

 

INDIVIDUAL STATS IS WHAT I"M LOOKING AT. How was that not clear by the #'s I posted and my comment "I'd much rather take the gamble on Molina, Ryan, Miles , Kennedy and Itzuris vs LH than Ankiel, Ludwick and Schumaker vs RH."?

 

Well, you said OPS yields similar results, which is just not true. Glaus is 100 points of OPS better against LHP and it's even worse if you look at his career splits. Pujols has been murdering LHP to the tune of nearly a 1.400 OPS. But overall, comparing individual batting averages seems like a really terrible way to make this decision.

[nolanwood]

Baseball reference has the OPS as .775 v. 773, but yeah, I have no idea what nolanwood is looking at.

 

 

INDIVIDUAL STATS IS WHAT I"M LOOKING AT. How was that not clear by the #'s I posted and my comment "I'd much rather take the gamble on Molina, Ryan, Miles , Kennedy and Itzuris vs LH than Ankiel, Ludwick and Schumaker vs RH."?

 

Well, you said OPS yields similar results, which is just not true. Glaus is 100 points of OPS better against LHP and it's even worse if you look at his career splits. Pujols has been murdering LHP to the tune of nearly a 1.400 OPS. But overall, comparing individual batting averages seems like a really terrible way to make this decision.

 

YES, individual OPS yields similar results. Pujols crushes everything, so there's not a need to include his splits. Ankiel, Ludwick and Schumaker are considerably better vs. RH pitching. I'd rather take my chances on Molina, Glaus, Ryan, Itzturis, Barton and a weaker hitting Ludwick. Miles is a wash.

 

vs LH vs RH

 

Ankiel .639 .934

Ludwick .826 .994

Schumaker .400 .915

Glaus .902 .802

Miles .769 .734

Ryan .769 .539

Itzuris .731 .571

Barton .744 .682

Molina 1.047 .598

[Tracer Bullet]

Baseball reference has the OPS as .775 v. 773, but yeah, I have no idea what nolanwood is looking at.

 

 

INDIVIDUAL STATS IS WHAT I"M LOOKING AT. How was that not clear by the #'s I posted and my comment "I'd much rather take the gamble on Molina, Ryan, Miles , Kennedy and Itzuris vs LH than Ankiel, Ludwick and Schumaker vs RH."?

 

Well, you said OPS yields similar results, which is just not true. Glaus is 100 points of OPS better against LHP and it's even worse if you look at his career splits. Pujols has been murdering LHP to the tune of nearly a 1.400 OPS. But overall, comparing individual batting averages seems like a really terrible way to make this decision.

 

YES, individual OPS yields similar results. Pujols crushes everything, so there's not a need to include his splits. Ankiel, Ludwick and Schumaker are considerably better vs. RH pitching. I'd rather take my chances on Molina, Glaus, Ryan, Itzturis, Barton and a weaker hitting Ludwick. Miles is a wash.

 

vs LH vs RH

 

Ankiel .639 .934

Ludwick .826 .994

Schumaker .400 .915

Glaus .902 .802

Miles .769 .734

Ryan .769 .539

Itzuris .731 .571

Barton .744 .682

Molina 1.047 .598

 

When the team splits are almost identical, I think it's weird to give an individual breakdown. The team, as a whole, puts up almost identical numbers against LHP and RHP. Why does it matter which guy is beating you?

 

Oh - and excluding Pujols is convenient for your argument. Since we're limiting splits to this year, he's 400 points of OPS better against LHP. Why ignore that?

[nolanwood]

Baseball reference has the OPS as .775 v. 773, but yeah, I have no idea what nolanwood is looking at.

 

 

INDIVIDUAL STATS IS WHAT I"M LOOKING AT. How was that not clear by the #'s I posted and my comment "I'd much rather take the gamble on Molina, Ryan, Miles , Kennedy and Itzuris vs LH than Ankiel, Ludwick and Schumaker vs RH."?

 

Well, you said OPS yields similar results, which is just not true. Glaus is 100 points of OPS better against LHP and it's even worse if you look at his career splits. Pujols has been murdering LHP to the tune of nearly a 1.400 OPS. But overall, comparing individual batting averages seems like a really terrible way to make this decision.

 

YES, individual OPS yields similar results. Pujols crushes everything, so there's not a need to include his splits. Ankiel, Ludwick and Schumaker are considerably better vs. RH pitching. I'd rather take my chances on Molina, Glaus, Ryan, Itzturis, Barton and a weaker hitting Ludwick. Miles is a wash.

 

vs LH vs RH

 

Ankiel .639 .934

Ludwick .826 .994

Schumaker .400 .915

Glaus .902 .802

Miles .769 .734

Ryan .769 .539

Itzuris .731 .571

Barton .744 .682

Molina 1.047 .598

 

When the team splits are almost identical, I think it's weird to give an individual breakdown. The team, as a whole, puts up almost identical numbers against LHP and RHP. Why does it matter which guy is beating you?

 

Oh - and excluding Pujols is convenient for your argument. Since we're limiting splits to this year, he's 400 points of OPS better against LHP. Why ignore that?

 

 

For starters, I'm ignoring Pujols' splits not because it's "convenient", but because he mashes everything. Pujols is a game changer, vs LH or RH. Would you not agree?

 

It doesn't matter which guy is beating you. Didn't I say I'd "rather take my chances" on them relying on Molina, Glaus, Ryan, Itzturis, Barton and a weaker hitting Ludwick for offense?

 

I'd also "rather take my chances" on Marshall instead of Marquis vs the Cardinals!