2009 Draft Discussion Thread

[wvcbxl]

Jump to the conclusions you want to jump too...

 

Jim Hendry has long-term plans to keep the Cubs as lefty hitting as possible?

[Mephistopheles]

Unfortunately not the one I was going for, but that'll do. If he wants lefties only, a guy I like a lot is a Michigan HS shortstop Daniel Fields. He's the son of a former major league player slash former major league hitting coach. He's got great batspeed and is a big shortstop who projects to have solid to above average power in the long run. He has great range at shortstop and runs well for his size and has a plus throwing arm. He does all of this while hitting left-handed as a shortstop which is a nice added bonus. He's also a northern guy, so he develops late and it wouldn't shock me at all if by this time next month we're talking about Fields going in the middle of the first round to a team like Minnesota or Milwaukee.

 

As far as raw tools go, let's compare the top shortstops in the draft who are signable. Sorry no Renfroe.

 

First Round Talents:

1. Grant Green - college SS w/ avg discipline, contact, defense and above average power

 

First-Supplemental Round Talents:

2. Jiovanni Mier - HS SS who projects as a line drive hitter with below average power and plus defense.

3. Daniel Fields - HS SS who projects to be an above average hitter all around with above average defense. Probably best all around tools of any SS in the draft.

 

Second Round Talents:

4. Ryan Jackson - college SS with average tools everywhere, except pwr and speed which are in question. Above average defensive SS.

5. Mychal Givens - HS SS with below average to average bat and above average defense. Better RHP prospect than SS, probably a 3rd round SS at this point.

6. Michael Heller - HS SS with above average hitting tools and average defense, could grow out of SS and could also be a second rounder as an RHP

 

Second to Third Round Talents

7. Chris Owings - HS SS with above average defense, though below average SPD. Should hit for average and take a walk, may not hit for any power.

8. DJ LaMehieu - college SS with above average offensive skills, average defense, but may grow out of SS.

9. Robbie Shields - college SS with average to above average tools on offense, passable at SS, but move to 2B seems likely.

 

Third Round Talents

11. Devan Marrero - HS SS with good batspeed but average power at best. Second best defensive prep SS behind Mier.

12. Nick Franklin - HS SS who switch hits with average tools across the board. No standout tool though.

13. Billy Hamilton - HS SS with plus-plus speed and a plus arm. Below average bat and may move to CF. Should be a good defender at CF and SS. Hits both ways

14. Scooter Gennett - HS SS with good batspeed and above average power. Best present bat among prep SS, but limited projection left in the bat due to his small size and quirky swing. Can play solid average at short, could move to second if need be. Lefty hitter, so Utley and Fonte comps are warranted.

[Mephistopheles]

http://www.baseballamerica.com/chat/?1242323222

 

Flood with Cubs questions!

 

I asked "Have the Cubs been linked to anyone in particular? Any chance they take a prep shortstop like Jiovanni Mier, Daniel Fields or David Renfroe?"

 

 

i believe this is a first round mock if anyone has access to it

http://www.pgcrosschecker.com/articles/DisplayArticle.aspx?article=1254

[StylesClash]

Would Brian Goodwin be a reach as a first round pick? Goodwin has elite speed, along with above average range and plate discipline. Getting those traits from a premium position like Center Field seems like a worthy late first round gamble. The Kenny Lofton comparison doesn't hurt either.

[UK1679666180]

http://www.baseballamerica.com/chat/?1242323222

 

Flood with Cubs questions!

 

I asked "Have the Cubs been linked to anyone in particular? Any chance they take a prep shortstop like Jiovanni Mier, Daniel Fields or David Renfroe?"

 

 

i believe this is a first round mock if anyone has access to it

http://www.pgcrosschecker.com/articles/DisplayArticle.aspx?article=1254

 

 

CHICAGO CUBS. Andrew Oliver, lhp, Oklahoma State

 

Oliver would become the first player selected in the first round with 31st pick, courtesy of the new draft rules that allow extra picks for teams that did not sign their previous year’s first round selection (Washington and New York Yankees in 2008). The Cubs could have their pick of college lefthanders as that has become one of the strengths of the draft this spring

[Mephistopheles]

Would Brian Goodwin be a reach as a first round pick? Goodwin has elite speed, along with above average range and plate discipline. Getting those traits from a premium position like Center Field seems like a worthy late first round gamble. The Kenny Lofton comparison doesn't hurt either.

 

A little. There's one glaring deficiency in his game. Power. He's also not an easy sign as he's a UNC commit. He's probably signable in the top 50 picks for slot money, but after that it becomes more of a concern. He's a guy who could fall to the 10th round on draft day. Really he is more Juan Pierre than Kenny Lofton, but you dream want you want to dream. Everett Williams is a similar player, but has more power projection and not as tough a sign. Signability, obviously, wouldn't matter if Goodwin was taken by the Cubs at 31. Goodwin's more or a second round talent than a first round one.

[Mephistopheles]

CHICAGO CUBS. Andrew Oliver, lhp, Oklahoma State

 

Oliver would become the first player selected in the first round with 31st pick, courtesy of the new draft rules that allow extra picks for teams that did not sign their previous year’s first round selection (Washington and New York Yankees in 2008). The Cubs could have their pick of college lefthanders as that has become one of the strengths of the draft this spring

 

Sounds like a Cubs' pick. I guess it's better than Tim Wheeler. Olivers gotta be the what, fourth college LHP now behind Paxton, Brothers and maybe Minor. I don't think that Oliver will fall to the Cubs, hopefully he continues to stumble....

[YearofDaCubs]

Any chance we draft a 1B/OF?

[Mephistopheles]

1b? maybe...of? semi likely.

 

Matt (Austin): Have the Cubs been linked to anyone in particular? Any chance they take a prep shortstop like Jiovanni Mier, Daniel Fields or David Renfroe?

 

 

Jim Callis: Too early to hear much about teams at the bottom of the first round. They do like their Notre Damers, so maybe they'll go after outfielder A.J. Pollock. Mier could be a fit for them at No. 31, but the other guys are later picks.

 

*sigh*

[UK1679666180]

Any chance we draft a 1B/OF?

 

I doubt it would be in the 1st, it they would draft an OF, it would likely be a HS toolsy type of pick. Your best bet would be the 1B from UGA, but I don't think it fits the Cubs MO.

[TruffleShuffle]

the track record for college first basemen drafted in the first round is outstanding. that doesn't mean that you should reach for one, but if there's an established power hitting 1B in the draft and he merits first round selection, pounce on it.

[Mephistopheles]

the cubs dont seem to take toolsy high schoolers anymore. they seem to take toolsy college players who can't hit.

 

/rant

[Outshined_One]

the cubs dont seem to take toolsy high schoolers anymore. they seem to take toolsy college players who can't hit.

 

/rant

 

Cerda was pretty much the only toolsy HSer they took in the first 20 rounds last year. Considering Vitters was pretty freaking toolsy two years ago, the Cubs didn't seem to have any hesitation in taking him. It's hard to know when they're in love with a guy, though.

 

However, the more I read about this year's draft class, the more underwhelmed I become with the high school position players who should be available when the Cubs pick.

[Mephistopheles]

not really...

[Transmogrified Tiger]

the cubs dont seem to take toolsy high schoolers anymore. they seem to take toolsy college players who can't hit.

 

/rant

 

That's their MO now because they took Colvin and Barney(who is hitting for now)? Thomas can hit, Flaherty can hit, and Donaldson can hit.

[Mephistopheles]

i was kidding

 

http://www.baseballamerica.com/online/draft/mock-draft/2009/268103.html

 

more mocks

[Guest]

AJ Pollock sure sounds like the type of guy the Cubs would pick.

[SweetZombieJesus]

Granted ND has been terrible since Manieri left but have the cubs drafted a ND player since Shark?

[Outshined_One]

Granted ND has been terrible since Manieri left but have the cubs drafted a ND player since Shark?

 

Nope, although there's only been a handful of guys drafted from ND since 2007.

[craig]

Drafting as late as they are in rounds 1 and 2 (sandwich pick area for their 1st...), I'm sure they need to go totally BPA. It will be hard enough to get an excellent player, so take the best guy you can.

 

But I wonder if need doesn't impact how they scout and who they take in rounds 5-15.

 

There are so many players of roughly similar overall talent in that area, it takes a lot of time to scout them all and to separate who's best. I think teams may sometimes focus extra scouting time on players who fit their needs. Last year, pitching was clearly ID'd as a need area, despite what was touted as a weak draft for pitchers. But the Cubs seemed to do a good job drafting jackson, Coleman, McDaniel.

 

It wasn't too long ago that SS/middle infield had been ID'd as a need area. Now with Castro, Lake, Lee, watkins, and also Flaherty, Thomas, Kemp, Harrison, and Cerda, it seems there are plenty of candidates to play SS/2B, with some of them looking like they might be able to stick at SS rather than outgrow it. So I wouldn't expect SS to be a major target need.

 

One area that I recall either Fleita or Wilken mentioning as an area lacking in system depth coming out of camp was outfield. Sori, Bradley, Fuku, Johnson are all in the 30's, and with Pie, Guyer, Rundle, and probably Colvin all disappointing, I think they will really be looking for outfielders wherever they can. Again, 1st round you have to go BPA for sure, but I'd guess that BPA being equal, an outfielder will get the benefit of the doubt. And hopefully especially one with some power potential.

 

Another is obviously LHP.

[CubsWin]

Drafting as late as they are in rounds 1 and 2 (sandwich pick area for their 1st...), I'm sure they need to go totally BPA. It will be hard enough to get an excellent player, so take the best guy you can.

 

But I wonder if need doesn't impact how they scout and who they take in rounds 5-15.

 

There are so many players of roughly similar overall talent in that area, it takes a lot of time to scout them all and to separate who's best. I think teams may sometimes focus extra scouting time on players who fit their needs. Last year, pitching was clearly ID'd as a need area, despite what was touted as a weak draft for pitchers. But the Cubs seemed to do a good job drafting jackson, Coleman, McDaniel.

 

It wasn't too long ago that SS/middle infield had been ID'd as a need area. Now with Castro, Lake, Lee, watkins, and also Flaherty, Thomas, Kemp, Harrison, and Cerda, it seems there are plenty of candidates to play SS/2B, with some of them looking like they might be able to stick at SS rather than outgrow it. So I wouldn't expect SS to be a major target need.

 

One area that I recall either Fleita or Wilken mentioning as an area lacking in system depth coming out of camp was outfield. Sori, Bradley, Fuku, Johnson are all in the 30's, and with Pie, Guyer, Rundle, and probably Colvin all disappointing, I think they will really be looking for outfielders wherever they can. Again, 1st round you have to go BPA for sure, but I'd guess that BPA being equal, an outfielder will get the benefit of the doubt. And hopefully especially one with some power potential.

 

Another is obviously LHP.

I agree. Pie has been disappointing for the O's this season, but...

[Guest]

Top 80 RHP: http://www.baseballamerica.com/online/draft/draft-preview/2009/268137.html

 

Top 35 LHP: http://www.baseballamerica.com/online/draft/draft-preview/2009/268136.html

 

They also break it down by what round the expect those pitchers to go all the way to the 5th-6th round.

 

I'd love to see the Cubs take Robert Stock in the 3rd or 4th round if he's really rated at that level. You'd have to imagine his ceiling is immense and he's pretty raw to full time pitching.

[Guest]

Boras clients:

 

RHP Stephen Strasburg, San Diego St

OF Dustin Ackley, North Carolina

SS Grant Green, Southern California

RHP Jacob Turner, Westminster Christian Academy (St. Louis, Missouri)

OF Donavan Tate, Cartersville HS (Georgia)

LHP Andy Oliver, Oklahoma State

LHP James Paxton, Kentucky

[Outshined_One]

Of those names, Oliver and Green have been struggling the most so far, while Turner and Paxton have seen their names skyrocket up the board. I don't think any of those four will make it to the Cubs, though.

[Guest]

Turner has the biggest bonus demands, though. He wants Porcello money so he could slide a bit. Of course Detroit, Boston and the Yankees pick before the Cubs so it probably won't matter.

 

Top 10 First Baseman (including Ackley at 1B): http://www.baseballamerica.com/online/draft/draft-preview/2009/268145.html