BP on third base prospects

[TruffleShuffle]

Nothing on Cub prospects, but i found these to be funny:

 

I was having a little trouble reconciling Neil Walker’s projection with expectations, since there’s no one skill of his that jumps off the page. So I went back to his 2004 draft day scouting report and found this homoerotic prose:

 

COMMENT: SOLID FRAME. STRONG AS A BULL. EXCELLENT PHYSICAL MAKE-UP. BROAD SHOULDERS. MUSCULAR ARMS & LEGS. […]

 

The rest of these players all require asterisks of one form or another. Scott Moore is not well liked by scouts and his defense is marginal enough at third base than he might prove to be a bit of a 'tweener, but he’s done nothing but hit in the minor leagues. Regardless, even if Moore has only 60 percent as much potential as PECOTA gives him credit for, that would still be an awfully good pickup for the Orioles for four crappy starts from Steve Trachsel. In fact, even if Moore had only six percent as much potential as PECOTA gives him credit for, that would still be a good trade for the Orioles. Or 0.6 percent. Or a Dunkin’ Donuts coupon.

 

According to their rankings...

 

Excellent prospects:

Evan Longoria, Rays (22)

Andy LaRoche, Dodgers (24)

 

Good Prospects:

Ian Stewart, Rockies (23)

Neil Walker, Pirates (22)

Scott Moore, Orioles (24)

Joe Dillon, Brewers (32)

Angel Villalona, Giants (17)

Andy Marte, Indians (24)

 

Very Good Prospects: (this makes no sense, maybe the above guys were supposed to be good and these very good?)

Billy Rowell, Orioles (19)

Mitchell Hilligoss, Yankees (23)

Rico Washington, Cardinals (30)

David Fresse, Padres (25)

Blake DeWitt, Dodgers (22)

Matthew Sweeney, Angels (20)

James D'Antona, Diamondbacks (26)

Matt Moses, Twins (23)

Daniel Murphy, Mets (23)

Mario Lisson, Royals (24)

Michael Costanzo, Orioles (24)

Joel Guzman, Devil Rays (23)

Chase Headley, Padres (24)

[Little Slide Rooter]

Nothing on Cub prospects, but i found these to be funny:

 

Joe Dillon, Brewers (32)

 

Rico Washington, Cardinals (30)

 

Sorry, after 25 or 26, your status gos from prospect to career minor leaguer/fill in.

[Brett]

Sweet, I can still be a prospect as I approach 30!

[sneakypower]

might as well put dallas mcpherson on there too

[illiniguy]

So vitters doesn't rank among the top 21 minor league thrid basemen? Awesome work Cubbies.

[SouthSideRyan]

I really doubt that's BP's top 21 third base prospects. Joe Dillon?

 

I'm gonna wait til Vitters has played a season of minor league ball before throwing him under the bus.

[illiniguy]

I really doubt that's BP's top 21 third base prospects. Joe Dillon?

 

I'm gonna wait til Vitters has played a season of minor league ball before throwing him under the bus.

Yeah, but at the rate he is going he might not ever get a full season in.

[Guest]

So vitters doesn't rank among the top 21 minor league thrid basemen? Awesome work Cubbies.

 

Nor do Moustakas or Dominguez, apparently. Not sure what this list is worth.

[illiniguy]

So vitters doesn't rank among the top 21 minor league thrid basemen? Awesome work Cubbies.

 

Nor do Moustakas or Dominguez, apparently. Not sure what this list is worth.

Well Moustakas is still playing shortstop.

[Guest]

So vitters doesn't rank among the top 21 minor league thrid basemen? Awesome work Cubbies.

 

Nor do Moustakas or Dominguez, apparently. Not sure what this list is worth.

Well Moustakas is still playing shortstop.

 

But everyone knows he'll end up at third sooner than later.

[NCCubFan]

Marte is still a "good" prospect? :shock:

[illiniguy]

So vitters doesn't rank among the top 21 minor league thrid basemen? Awesome work Cubbies.

 

Nor do Moustakas or Dominguez, apparently. Not sure what this list is worth.

Well Moustakas is still playing shortstop.

 

But everyone knows he'll end up at third sooner than later.

Yeah, most likely sooner.

[CoolHandLuke]

I know they now have Goldstein to give them some credibility when it comes to prospects, but i still don't trust them that much when it comes to ranking and analyzing minor league guys.

[TruffleShuffle]

the list was purely PECOTA-generated.

[badnews]

That list is patently ridiculous. A lot of those rankings seem a year or two too old. If that's the work of PECOTA, here is another good reason to throw PECOTA in the trash.

[TruffleShuffle]

That list is patently ridiculous. A lot of those rankings seem a year or two too old. If that's the work of PECOTA, here is another good reason to throw PECOTA in the trash.

 

what's so ridiculous about it? the presence of a guy like joe dillon? i guess i can understand it; the guy completely destroyed minor league pitching in 2004, 2005 and 2007 (in 2006 he was in japan), so it's reasonable to think that a guy who has been putting up an OPS over 1.000 and an EqA over .300 in the minors would be a productive player at the big league level. It's not PECOTA's fault that he won't get a shot to play in the big leagues.

 

i do think that PECOTA's projections for Marte are overly optimistic.

[badnews]

It's ridiculous to put Headley in the same prospect class with Freese, Washington, Moses, etc. Costanzo is not much to write home about. Rowell too, I don't like him as a prospect. Why is Rico Washington a better prospect than Ian Stewart? Andy Marte and Moore? Daniel Murphy of the Mets is a better prospect than Angel Villalona? It's a ridiculous list.

[TruffleShuffle]

It's ridiculous to put Headley in the same prospect class with Freese, Washington, Moses, etc. Costanzo is not much to write home about. Rowell too, I don't like him as a prospect. Why is Rico Washington a better prospect than Ian Stewart? Andy Marte and Moore? Daniel Murphy of the Mets is a better prospect than Angel Villalona? It's a ridiculous list.

 

they're not. i'm fairly certain that the "very good" and "good" tags were mixed up; the guys in the "good" list had higher upside ratings than the guys on the "very good" list.

[SouthSideRyan]

the list was purely PECOTA-generated.

 

So what, it's just ranking guys according to what PECOTA projects for them in the majors this year? That's a horrible way of ranking prospects.

[TruffleShuffle]

the list was purely PECOTA-generated.

 

So what, it's just ranking guys according to what PECOTA projects for them in the majors this year? That's a horrible way of ranking prospects.

 

no, what's it's projecting overall in their career. it uses upside, which is defined as such:

 

UPSIDE is determined by evaluating the performance of a player's PECOTA comparables. If a comparable player turned in a performance better than league average, including both his batting and fielding performance, then twice the number of runs he contributed above average is counted toward his UPSIDE. If the player was worse than league average, or he dropped out of the database, the performance is counted as zero.