A feel-good observation in the midst of all this losing

[MPrior]

So we've lost 8 of 11 games, and that's really frustrating, especially since this team is obviously a good one, and at least a few of the teams we've played in those 11 games have most definitely not been good ones.

 

However - we lead all of MLB in run differential at +50. The Diamondbacks are second at +47. The dodgers are at +41, the Braves and A's are at +39, and then no one else is really even close. In fact, even in those last 11 games, of which we've only won 3, we've outscored our opponents 59-48. We've lost 6 2-run games, 1 1-run game, and 1 3-run game. Not that it's particularly meaningful, but our Pythagorean record over that 11-game stretch is about 7-4, not 3-8.

 

Additionally, our Pythagorean winning pct. on the season would give us 20 wins now, not 18.

 

So it seems to me that this bad streak really is just a case of unlucky statistical fluctuation, and I have no doubt that the team will right the ship. Not that anyone has really expressed any doubt, I just thought I'd point it out, cause I'm fed up with losing so much.

[nilodnayr]

So we've lost 8 of 11 games, and that's really frustrating, especially since this team is obviously a good one, and at least a few of the teams we've played in those 11 games have most definitely not been good ones.

 

However - we lead all of MLB in run differential at +50. The Diamondbacks are second at +47. The dodgers are at +41, the Braves and A's are at +39, and then no one else is really even close. In fact, even in those last 11 games, of which we've only won 3, we've outscored our opponents 59-48. We've lost 6 2-run games, 1 1-run game, and 1 3-run game. Not that it's particularly meaningful, but our Pythagorean record over that 11-game stretch is about 7-4, not 3-8.

 

Additionally, our Pythagorean winning pct. on the season would give us 20 wins now, not 18.

 

So it seems to me that this bad streak really is just a case of unlucky statistical fluctuation, and I have no doubt that the team will right the ship. Not that anyone has really expressed any doubt, I just thought I'd point it out, cause I'm fed up with losing so much.

 

I think theres a risk in using pythag over small samples. Games like the April 30th 19-5 walloping we put on the brewcrew (I was at the game and it was awesome), have such a significant skewing impact when you are just looking at an 11 game sample. Taking out that game, it drops us from +11 to -3, worth a couple games in the pythag standings.

 

I'm sure there have been analyses done as to when pythag becomes credible...anyone know of any?

[MPrior]

So we've lost 8 of 11 games, and that's really frustrating, especially since this team is obviously a good one, and at least a few of the teams we've played in those 11 games have most definitely not been good ones.

 

However - we lead all of MLB in run differential at +50. The Diamondbacks are second at +47. The dodgers are at +41, the Braves and A's are at +39, and then no one else is really even close. In fact, even in those last 11 games, of which we've only won 3, we've outscored our opponents 59-48. We've lost 6 2-run games, 1 1-run game, and 1 3-run game. Not that it's particularly meaningful, but our Pythagorean record over that 11-game stretch is about 7-4, not 3-8.

 

Additionally, our Pythagorean winning pct. on the season would give us 20 wins now, not 18.

 

So it seems to me that this bad streak really is just a case of unlucky statistical fluctuation, and I have no doubt that the team will right the ship. Not that anyone has really expressed any doubt, I just thought I'd point it out, cause I'm fed up with losing so much.

 

I think theres a risk in using pythag over small samples. Games like the April 30th 19-5 walloping we put on the brewcrew (I was at the game and it was awesome), have such a significant skewing impact when you are just looking at an 11 game sample. Taking out that game, it drops us from +11 to -3, worth a couple games in the pythag standings.

 

I'm sure there have been analyses done as to when pythag becomes credible...anyone know of any?

 

Yeah, that's why I said that it's not particularly meaningful - 11 games just isn't a large enough sample size. The overall point, though, is that this team is much better than they've showed of late, and I feel pretty confident that that's true.

 

And I'm jealous that you were at the game. I've been taking classes and preparing for the MCAT pretty much all season (it's this Saturday!), and haven't been able to even watch a whole game yet (it also doesn't help that I'm in Los Angeles, don't have cable, and am too cheap to go to a bar).

[nilodnayr]

So we've lost 8 of 11 games, and that's really frustrating, especially since this team is obviously a good one, and at least a few of the teams we've played in those 11 games have most definitely not been good ones.

 

However - we lead all of MLB in run differential at +50. The Diamondbacks are second at +47. The dodgers are at +41, the Braves and A's are at +39, and then no one else is really even close. In fact, even in those last 11 games, of which we've only won 3, we've outscored our opponents 59-48. We've lost 6 2-run games, 1 1-run game, and 1 3-run game. Not that it's particularly meaningful, but our Pythagorean record over that 11-game stretch is about 7-4, not 3-8.

 

Additionally, our Pythagorean winning pct. on the season would give us 20 wins now, not 18.

 

So it seems to me that this bad streak really is just a case of unlucky statistical fluctuation, and I have no doubt that the team will right the ship. Not that anyone has really expressed any doubt, I just thought I'd point it out, cause I'm fed up with losing so much.

 

I think theres a risk in using pythag over small samples. Games like the April 30th 19-5 walloping we put on the brewcrew (I was at the game and it was awesome), have such a significant skewing impact when you are just looking at an 11 game sample. Taking out that game, it drops us from +11 to -3, worth a couple games in the pythag standings.

 

I'm sure there have been analyses done as to when pythag becomes credible...anyone know of any?

 

Yeah, that's why I said that it's not particularly meaningful - 11 games just isn't a large enough sample size. The overall point, though, is that this team is much better than they've showed of late, and I feel pretty confident that that's true.

 

And I'm jealous that you were at the game. I've been taking classes and preparing for the MCAT pretty much all season (it's this Saturday!), and haven't been able to even watch a whole game yet (it also doesn't help that I'm in Los Angeles, don't have cable, and am too cheap to go to a bar).

 

Good luck on the MCAT!! You probably shouldn't be going to bars if you know, you are trying to not ruin you future by donig well on the MCAT.

 

And yeah, I can fairly safely say that the Cubs are worse than they were during their hot streak and better than they are during their cold streak. Unfortunately, on this board, I don't have much company in that thought. People just don't get that a .500 team doesnt alternate winning and losing games.

[CubinNY]

So we've lost 8 of 11 games, and that's really frustrating, especially since this team is obviously a good one, and at least a few of the teams we've played in those 11 games have most definitely not been good ones.

 

However - we lead all of MLB in run differential at +50. The Diamondbacks are second at +47. The dodgers are at +41, the Braves and A's are at +39, and then no one else is really even close. In fact, even in those last 11 games, of which we've only won 3, we've outscored our opponents 59-48. We've lost 6 2-run games, 1 1-run game, and 1 3-run game. Not that it's particularly meaningful, but our Pythagorean record over that 11-game stretch is about 7-4, not 3-8.

 

Additionally, our Pythagorean winning pct. on the season would give us 20 wins now, not 18.

 

So it seems to me that this bad streak really is just a case of unlucky statistical fluctuation, and I have no doubt that the team will right the ship. Not that anyone has really expressed any doubt, I just thought I'd point it out, cause I'm fed up with losing so much.

 

I think theres a risk in using pythag over small samples. Games like the April 30th 19-5 walloping we put on the brewcrew (I was at the game and it was awesome), have such a significant skewing impact when you are just looking at an 11 game sample. Taking out that game, it drops us from +11 to -3, worth a couple games in the pythag standings.

 

I'm sure there have been analyses done as to when pythag becomes credible...anyone know of any?

I think it's right around 100 games. It's not meant to be a predictor. It's meant to show under/over performance for a season.

[Clem Fandango]

I don't doubt the Cubs will be able to turn it around, I'm sure they will, and these numbers are definitely inspiring, I just can't stand losing, lol. We came back from a larger deficit with fewer games to play last year, so I'm not too concerned about the slide right now, especially since the competition is going through bigger problems than us right now and are playing over their heads in some instances, but this could just be a string of rotten luck that's pissing us all off since we know the Cubs are better than this. At least that's how I feel. I just wish they'd stop pissing us off, lol

[Hairyducked Idiot]

The entire point of pythagorean is that a good team *is* more likely to win 19-5 than a bad team.

[Transmogrified Tiger]

Even if you remove the 19-5 game, going 3-7 in a 10 game stretch where the differential is -3 is still pretty unlucky.

[nilodnayr]

Even if you remove the 19-5 game, going 3-7 in a 10 game stretch where the differential is -3 is still pretty unlucky.

 

And if you could add correctly you'd find that we actually went 2-8 after taking out the 19-5 game, making it all the more unlucky :D

[Transmogrified Tiger]

Even if you remove the 19-5 game, going 3-7 in a 10 game stretch where the differential is -3 is still pretty unlucky.

 

And if you could add correctly you'd find that we actually went 2-8 after taking out the 19-5 game, making it all the more unlucky :D

 

 

I like to be conservative and not assume that we'll win a game that we outscore an opponent by 14.

[JonnyRed]

Despite all of this recent losing, it's nice to think that that Cubs still have the 6th best record in baseball. We are in a world's better postion this season. We have made huge upgrades in RF and C, with the back end of the rotation being the only thing we really need to get straightened out. Plus, I don't see any way the Cards keep it going and the Brew Crew will slide even further when Sheets invariably gets hurt.

[MPrior]

Good luck on the MCAT!! You probably shouldn't be going to bars if you know, you are trying to not ruin you future by donig well on the MCAT.

 

I also probably shouldn't be frequenting a Cubs message board. Oops.

 

Anyway, thanks for the well wishes. At this point I'm just crossing my fingers, more or less. This is also how I intend to approach surgery.

[nilodnayr]

Even if you remove the 19-5 game, going 3-7 in a 10 game stretch where the differential is -3 is still pretty unlucky.

 

And if you could add correctly you'd find that we actually went 2-8 after taking out the 19-5 game, making it all the more unlucky :D

 

 

I like to be conservative and not assume that we'll win a game that we outscore an opponent by 14.

 

:?:

 

In our last 11 games we were 3-8. If you remove the 19-5 game, then we are 2-8, not 3-7.

[Transmogrified Tiger]

Even if you remove the 19-5 game, going 3-7 in a 10 game stretch where the differential is -3 is still pretty unlucky.

 

And if you could add correctly you'd find that we actually went 2-8 after taking out the 19-5 game, making it all the more unlucky :D

 

 

I like to be conservative and not assume that we'll win a game that we outscore an opponent by 14.

 

:?:

 

In our last 11 games we were 3-8. If you remove the 19-5 game, then we are 2-8, not 3-7.

 

That lack of wit was me responding in embarrasment for my simple math error. Sorry for the confusion.

[Colin Wyers]

So we've lost 8 of 11 games, and that's really frustrating, especially since this team is obviously a good one, and at least a few of the teams we've played in those 11 games have most definitely not been good ones.

 

However - we lead all of MLB in run differential at +50. The Diamondbacks are second at +47. The dodgers are at +41, the Braves and A's are at +39, and then no one else is really even close. In fact, even in those last 11 games, of which we've only won 3, we've outscored our opponents 59-48. We've lost 6 2-run games, 1 1-run game, and 1 3-run game. Not that it's particularly meaningful, but our Pythagorean record over that 11-game stretch is about 7-4, not 3-8.

 

Additionally, our Pythagorean winning pct. on the season would give us 20 wins now, not 18.

 

So it seems to me that this bad streak really is just a case of unlucky statistical fluctuation, and I have no doubt that the team will right the ship. Not that anyone has really expressed any doubt, I just thought I'd point it out, cause I'm fed up with losing so much.

 

I think theres a risk in using pythag over small samples. Games like the April 30th 19-5 walloping we put on the brewcrew (I was at the game and it was awesome), have such a significant skewing impact when you are just looking at an 11 game sample. Taking out that game, it drops us from +11 to -3, worth a couple games in the pythag standings.

 

I'm sure there have been analyses done as to when pythag becomes credible...anyone know of any?

 

There are sample size concerns, but Pythagorean W/L is supposed to be more reliable over small sample sizes (and remember, a full season is a small sample size - everything is technically a sample) than straight win-loss records; that's why it exists.

 

That said, if you're worried about blowouts skewing the Pythag, check out this. It's a Pythagorean win estimator on a per game basis, and it's capped, so no one game skews the estimate too much.

[nilodnayr]

So we've lost 8 of 11 games, and that's really frustrating, especially since this team is obviously a good one, and at least a few of the teams we've played in those 11 games have most definitely not been good ones.

 

However - we lead all of MLB in run differential at +50. The Diamondbacks are second at +47. The dodgers are at +41, the Braves and A's are at +39, and then no one else is really even close. In fact, even in those last 11 games, of which we've only won 3, we've outscored our opponents 59-48. We've lost 6 2-run games, 1 1-run game, and 1 3-run game. Not that it's particularly meaningful, but our Pythagorean record over that 11-game stretch is about 7-4, not 3-8.

 

Additionally, our Pythagorean winning pct. on the season would give us 20 wins now, not 18.

 

So it seems to me that this bad streak really is just a case of unlucky statistical fluctuation, and I have no doubt that the team will right the ship. Not that anyone has really expressed any doubt, I just thought I'd point it out, cause I'm fed up with losing so much.

 

I think theres a risk in using pythag over small samples. Games like the April 30th 19-5 walloping we put on the brewcrew (I was at the game and it was awesome), have such a significant skewing impact when you are just looking at an 11 game sample. Taking out that game, it drops us from +11 to -3, worth a couple games in the pythag standings.

 

I'm sure there have been analyses done as to when pythag becomes credible...anyone know of any?

 

There are sample size concerns, but Pythagorean W/L is supposed to be more reliable over small sample sizes (and remember, a full season is a small sample size - everything is technically a sample) than straight win-loss records; that's why it exists.

 

That said, if you're worried about blowouts skewing the Pythag, check out this. It's a Pythagorean win estimator on a per game basis, and it's capped, so no one game skews the estimate too much.

 

Yeah, I mean if you think about it, that 14 run differential gets spread out over the 11 games, you are only upping it slightly more than 1 run a game. Like I said, it has a couple run difference in the pythag. I like the capped idea as usually in a blow out a manager will throw out his slop hitters or force a pitcher to stay in a game to save the bullpen, etc which ends up resulting in a greater run differential than there should be.

[nilodnayr]

Even if you remove the 19-5 game, going 3-7 in a 10 game stretch where the differential is -3 is still pretty unlucky.

 

And if you could add correctly you'd find that we actually went 2-8 after taking out the 19-5 game, making it all the more unlucky :D

 

 

I like to be conservative and not assume that we'll win a game that we outscore an opponent by 14.

 

:?:

 

In our last 11 games we were 3-8. If you remove the 19-5 game, then we are 2-8, not 3-7.

 

That lack of wit was me responding in embarrasment for my simple math error. Sorry for the confusion.

 

Ha, I thought thats what you were trying to do, but I just didn't get it :D