Roy Oswalt

[Hairyducked Idiot]

Ridiculous. He's a reliever. Relievers should always be considered as part of a trade that upgrades the starting rotation or the lineup. If this Oswat talk wasn't bunk and the Astros wanted Marmol as part of the deal, you damn well add in Marmol.

 

As has been shown in other threads, there is room on every team for one relief pitcher who is just as important as the starters. Those high-leverage innings add up.

 

Marmol at this point I would argue projects at just one win above replacement worse than Oswalt for the season and is younger and cheaper.

 

I'd have to think hard before making that trade straight up.

[Wilson A2000]

Ridiculous. He's a reliever. Relievers should always be considered as part of a trade that upgrades the starting rotation or the lineup. If this Oswat talk wasn't bunk and the Astros wanted Marmol as part of the deal, you damn well add in Marmol.

 

As has been shown in other threads, there is room on every team for one relief pitcher who is just as important as the starters. Those high-leverage innings add up.

 

Marmol at this point I would argue projects at just one win above replacement worse than Oswalt for the season and is younger and cheaper.

 

I'd have to think hard before making that trade straight up.

 

How do you factor win projections for relievers?

[Hairyducked Idiot]

i wouldnt trade marmol for oswalt straight up

 

That's crazy talk.

 

I think I can make a pretty good case for it.

 

Last season, Oswalt was worth 6.7 wins above replacement based on Support Neutral Lineup Adjusted Win-Loss Above Replacement, which I think is the best stat for evaluating pitcher value.

 

Marmol was only at 3.8 as a reliever (using expected W-L added, which is essentially the same as SNLVAR), but he didn't throw quite a whole season and he had a very low leverage index (he wasn't used in very important situations).

 

Right now, Marmol has been worth 1.51 wins above replacement, essentially tied for second behind Cliff Lee among all pitchers (and first among relievers). He could easily reach the 6-7 wins that would put him on par with an elite starting pitcher.

[Transmogrified Tiger]

Oswalt is not trending in a positive direction. He may be hurt, he's a small frame to be bringing his stuff for that many years. Plus, he's the guy who wants to retire at around this age and take his big tractor he got from the Stros and go home. He's not a good target for a multitude of reasons.

[Hairyducked Idiot]

Ridiculous. He's a reliever. Relievers should always be considered as part of a trade that upgrades the starting rotation or the lineup. If this Oswat talk wasn't bunk and the Astros wanted Marmol as part of the deal, you damn well add in Marmol.

 

As has been shown in other threads, there is room on every team for one relief pitcher who is just as important as the starters. Those high-leverage innings add up.

 

Marmol at this point I would argue projects at just one win above replacement worse than Oswalt for the season and is younger and cheaper.

 

I'd have to think hard before making that trade straight up.

 

How do you factor win projections for relievers?

 

Odds of winning before and after he enters the game.

 

Take a chart like fangraphs.com uses. It determines each teams odds of winning based on the difference in the score, the baserunners, the inning and the outs.

 

For example, in Marmol's last appearance, he entered the game with none on, none out, his team leading by one in the bottom of the 10th. Historically, the leading team wins 79.8% of the time of those situations. He finished the game with the Cubs winning (100% chance of win), so he is credited with .202 wins. If he had blown it and they lost right there, he would have been lost .798 wins.

 

Like I said, a shut-down reliever used in close situations late in the games can have a huge impact and rack up a lot of wins for the team that VORP or ERA/IP wouldn't show.

[vance_the_cubs_fan]

I watched two of Oswalt's performances this season and it's clear he's a shadow of his former self. Think of Pedro without the movement on his pitches. If I were Houston I'd be more than willing to move him and his bloated contract to some sucker.

 

 

If what you saw were his first three outings, I can see where you got that from. However, in his last two starts he was back to his usual self. I think it had something to do with his release point.