Buster Olney's comments about Soriano

[UMFan83]

Interesting comments. He thinks Soriano would best help the Cubs hitting 7th, and sort of reiterates what a lot of us were thinking, Soriano does not come up big in clutch situations.

 

Brendan, NY: Whats your take on Sorianos proper batting order slot? Any chance they still get Roberts b/c they might resolve a lot of those issues and DeRosas looked pretty bad at second so far.

 

SportsNation Buster Olney: (1:30 PM ET ) Brendan: There is no perfect place to hit him, other than No. 7. he strikes out way too much to hit anywhere from 3-6, and you can't hit him eighth; he'd get less than nothing to hit. You can't hit him seventh, because the Cubs are paying him way too much money to stick him in that slot in the lineup, and he's made it very clear -- in Washington, and with the Cubs -- that he is most comfortable leading off. So Lou basically has to grit his teeth and write in Soriano at No. 1 until the Cubs get Roberts.

 

Bob, Chicago: Soriano had the third best OPS+ on the team. How can you say he can't bat anywhere from 3-6?

 

SportsNation Buster Olney: (1:35 PM ET ) Bob: This is a classic example of the whole scouting vs. numbers thing I just mentioned. The numbers say one thing, but if you've been around Soriano and watched his hitting with RISP, he just is not good in big spots, against good pitchers; he just destroys rallies...

[inari]

This is almost certainly going to turn into a Brian Roberts thread.

[Abe Frohman]

I guess he forgot about Soriano's big HR in the 2001 World Series, and last year's All-Star game. I'm sure there is a million reasons to the contrary, but I have seen some big hits from him. His clutch numbers do suck, though.

 

I like to contradict myself.

[abuck1220]

hmm...i guess buster olney is an idiot.

[KingCubsFan]

Just glancing at last year's numbers, he had an .872 OPS with RISP and 2 outs, and an .827 OPS with RISP. It also looks like he's a little more patient with runners on too. Sounds like a middle of the order hitter to me

[jersey cubs fan]

He can't hit 3-6 because of strikeouts? Oh, Buster, Buster, Buster.

[Ding Dong Johnson]

Buster must be short for Dumbass

[Sammy Sofa]

Tha's kind of scathing insight I expect from a man who willingly goes by "Buster" as his professional name.

[JimSorgi]

Hey guys come on, we all know strike outs are worse for your team than all other outs. It's been proven. I wonder if the Reds should bat Adam Dunn and his .380 OBP in the 7th spot. I mean, that dude strikes out a lot too.

[David]

Eh, I don't know. It's starting to feel like Soriano really is one of those anti-clutch guys. I don't believe that anyone is clutch, but there definitely might be guys who just suck in big situations. Soriano seems to be one of them. His approach at the plate seems to get worse, if that's at all possible. If the count even gets to three balls in these spots, it's almost like he won't even take another pitch the rest of the PA. I was amazed when he took that walk yesterday.

 

He's a productive player, no doubt, and I'll take him on my team. I just don't like having him at $18M a year, nor do I really like the way in which he produces. Oh well.

[Outshined_One]

*Adds Buster Olney to list of people who need to be loaded onto a trebuchet and launched.*

[Abe Frohman]

I just wonder why every MLB player hasn't read the book "The Science of Hitting" written by Ted Williams. Make the pitcher throw you something to hit. If he doesn't, take your base. Don't help him out. Eventually, you run out of room on the bases and people score.

 

Rocket Science.

[Tyrant]

Eh, I don't know. It's starting to feel like Soriano really is one of those anti-clutch guys.

 

I'll buy into that. Soriano has been noticeably worse in his career with men on base.

 

Bases empty (2,819 at bats): .865 OPS

Runners on (1,694 at bats): .799 OPS

 

Since this spans over thousands of at bats, and is a pretty marked difference, I'd say there might actually be something to it. Why, I don't know.

 

In fact, he gets worse as the "pressure" builds:

 

RISP: .765 OPS

RISP 2 outs: .740 OPS

Bases loaded: .735 OPS

 

It doesn't necessarily mean anything, but it's still interesting.

[JimSorgi]

I just wonder why every MLB player hasn't read the book "The Science of Hitting" written by Ted Williams. Make the pitcher throw you something to hit. If he doesn't, take your base. Don't help him out. Eventually, you run out of room on the bases and people score.

 

Rocket Science.

That's called baseclogging!

[Abe Frohman]

That's called baseclogging!

 

If clogging the bases is wrong, I don't wanna be right.

[Banedon]

Why are we even mentioning situational badness with Soriano right now? He's bad in all situations right now. If he was batting really good without men on base, or early in games with nothing on the line, it'd be worth the argument...but since he's in a universal slump right now, it seems a little strange to pick on his "clutchiness".

[Chocolate Milk]

Nothing makes people madder than strikeouts. It's so funny.

[chasinf5s]

I just wonder why every MLB player hasn't read the book "The Science of Hitting" written by Ted Williams. Make the pitcher throw you something to hit. If he doesn't, take your base. Don't help him out. Eventually, you run out of room on the bases and people score.

 

Rocket Science.

 

forward to JohnnieB.BakerJr@reds.com

[chasinf5s]

Nothing makes people madder than strikeouts. It's so funny.

 

double plays piss me off more, exp, Sammy Sosa at the end of 2004

[YearofDaCubs]

If we're mad now about Soriano(which I am), imagine what it's going to be like when he's playing left field for us at 38!

[Ding Dong Johnson]

If we're mad now about Soriano(which I am), imagine what it's going to be like when he's playing left field for us at 38!

wasn't there an article posted here a few months ago that revealed he's only like 19 now?

[erik316wttn]

This is almost certainly going to turn into a Brian Roberts thread.

 

Or a "clutch exists/doesn't exist" thread.

[Post Count Padder]

Buster Olney isn't good at his job.

[shnsajax]

He was pretty clutch in game 7 of the WS vs. Arizona. That was till Rivera choked it away.

[Jon]

This is what I posted last year in regards to the Soriano with the bases empty vs. runners on debate:

 

You get a different sense of things if you look at the none on/men on splits year by year. Over his last five seasons:

 

2002

Overall - .300/.332/.547/.879

None on (464 ABs) - .287/.322/.550/.872

Men on (232 ABs) - .328/.353/.543/.896

 

2003

Overall - .290/.338/.525/.863

None on (439 ABs) - .305/.348/.569/.917

Men on (243 ABs) - .263/.320/.444/.764

 

2004

Overall - .280/.324/.484/.808

None on (358 ABs) - .265/.308/.480/.788

Men on (250 ABs) - .300/.345/.488/.833

 

2005

Overall - .268/.309/.512/.821

None on (349 ABs) - .292/.340/.547/.887

Men on (288 ABs) - .240/.273/.469/.742

 

2006

Overall - .277/.351/.560/.911

None on (435 ABs) - .278/.326/.556/.882

Men on (212 ABs) - .274/.396/.566/.962

 

 

His career splits with nobody on vs. with men on are really skewed by two seasons (2003 when he had a good year and 2005 when he had a mediocre year). Of those five seasons, though, he actually had a higher OPS with men on base compared to nobody on in three of the five seasons. And that includes his career year, when he had a significantly higher OPS with men on base than he did when he came up with the bases empty (mainly because of a huge increase in walks).

 

I really don't think there's any real statistical foundation to the belief that he's just a better hitter batting leadoff than hitting in the middle of the order. The idea that he can only do well batting leadoff just took off earlier, yet I have yet to see anything that makes me believe there is anything actually behind it.

Here are his 2007 numbers:

 

Overall - .299/.337/.560/.897

None on (390 ABs) - .318/.345/.592/.937

Men on (189 ABs) - .259/.322/.492/.814

 

 

When you add in those numbers, you still can't draw any conclusions other than he's wildly inconsistent.