Can Theriot actually be adequate?

[Abe Frohman]

The fact that Ronny was 23 had nothing to do with the horrible plate discipline.

[Transmogrified Tiger]

Let's not pretend that Theriot was right around his final production the whole year, he's more than capable of being as awful as Cedeno in 2006.

 

.245/.271/.339/.610

 

.250/.302/.325/.627

 

One of these is Theriot without his insane July last year, the other is Cedeno 2006.

 

Also, career wise and compared to Theriot's '07, Cedeno is as good or better than Theriot against RHP.

[UMFan83]

Let's not pretend that Theriot was right around his final production the whole year, he's more than capable of being as awful as Cedeno in 2006.

 

.245/.271/.339/.610

 

.250/.302/.325/.627

 

One of these is Theriot without his insane July last year, the other is Cedeno 2006.

 

Also, career wise and compared to Theriot's '07, Cedeno is as good or better than Theriot against RHP.

 

What do you get if you take out his hottest (july) and coldest month (september)?

 

I guess I can't argue taking out his hottest month since my original post made the point of Theriot's stats without September. But at least there is semi-logical reasoning for his September. What do you attribute his hot month to? HGH?

[Transmogrified Tiger]

Let's not pretend that Theriot was right around his final production the whole year, he's more than capable of being as awful as Cedeno in 2006.

 

.245/.271/.339/.610

 

.250/.302/.325/.627

 

One of these is Theriot without his insane July last year, the other is Cedeno 2006.

 

Also, career wise and compared to Theriot's '07, Cedeno is as good or better than Theriot against RHP.

 

What do you get if you take out his hottest (july) and coldest month (september)?

 

I guess I can't argue taking out his hottest month since my original post made the point of Theriot's stats without September. But at least there is semi-logical reasoning for his September. What do you attribute his hot month to? HGH?

 

His hot month and cold month are both probably fluctuations. My point is that Theriot was very similar to Cedeno for most of last season aside from July(490 PA's). Assuming Theriot is a safer bet because his hot month was hotter than hot isn't right. His hottest month is 245 points(OPS) better than any other month. He had another month almost exactly like his worst month(.202/.257/.263 and .224/.272/.276).

[jersey cubs fan]

The fact that Ronny was 23 had nothing to do with the horrible plate discipline.

 

In an organization that stresses swing early and swing often, hitting not walking your way to the majors, and with a manager who ridiculed patience, being young sure as heck is meaningful.

[TruffleShuffle]

am i the only one who is completely sick of hearing/reading the name Ryan Theriot?

 

probably not. am i the only one who is sick of hearing about ronny's "upside" without the caveat that he was horrendous for an entire year and is very unlikely to reach that upside?

 

not nearly as sick as I am of hearing about how horrible Ronny is and how he can't hit ML pitching, without the caveat that he was 23 freaking years old.

 

you say "23 freaking years old" like it's unheard of for a guy to come up at that age and perform well. i'd venture a guess that the average major leaguer breaks into the league around age 23. and i am still waiting for some examples of guys who have been truly horrible players for their entire first year of play, at age 22 through 24, and turned out to be above average major leaguers.

[Abe Frohman]

Why don't we just look at Theriot and Cedeno's MLB production, since they have just about been in the EXACT amount of games....

 

Stat - Theriot - Cedeno

Games - 210 - 230

Age - Who - Cares

BA - .276 - .247

OB - .341 - .277

OPS - .720 - .626

PA - 770 - 741

AB - 684 - 688

H - 189 - 170

R - 117 - 70

RBI - 61 - 60

BB - 67 - 25

K - 70 - 138

SB - 41 - 11

 

It's so, so close.....

[CubinNY]

Why don't we just look at Theriot and Cedeno's MLB production, since they have just about been in the EXACT amount of games....

 

Stat - Theriot - Cedeno

Games - 210 - 230

Age - Who - Cares

BA - .276 - .247

OB - .341 - .277

OPS - .720 - .626

PA - 770 - 741

AB - 684 - 688

H - 189 - 170

R - 117 - 70

RBI - 61 - 60

BB - 67 - 25

K - 70 - 138

SB - 41 - 11

 

It's so, so close.....

Because that's not a fair comparison? Whether you want to admit it or not, age is relevant to the discussion.

[Abe Frohman]

The fact that Ronny was 23 had nothing to do with the horrible plate discipline.

 

In an organization that stresses swing early and swing often, hitting not walking your way to the majors, and with a manager who ridiculed patience, being young sure as heck is meaningful.

 

How is it meaningful? How does a man's age matter when he steps up to the plate? Do you really think that when every professional baseball player enters an organization, he is some type of clone that is going to be molded to specifically what his organization wants him to do? When a guy is under 30, does he start each at bat with a 1-1 count?

 

When comparing Theriot and Cedeno, as we have done hundreds of times, some things are the same while other things are different. Both guys came up in the Cubs system about the same time. One was older and played in the SEC, the other was a kid from Venezuela. One fiddled around with switch-hitting, the other had great success in AAA and boasts great tools. One has a sense of plate discipline (which he had when he was in college/HS), the other will at times swing at a flaming bag of dog poop if you threw it up there.

 

The only factor age has on these guys when comparing them is the longevity of their careers.

Edited March 27, 2008 by Abe Frohman

[CubinNY]

am i the only one who is completely sick of hearing/reading the name Ryan Theriot?

 

probably not. am i the only one who is sick of hearing about ronny's "upside" without the caveat that he was horrendous for an entire year and is very unlikely to reach that upside?

 

not nearly as sick as I am of hearing about how horrible Ronny is and how he can't hit ML pitching, without the caveat that he was 23 freaking years old.

 

you say "23 freaking years old" like it's unheard of for a guy to come up at that age and perform well. i'd venture a guess that the average major leaguer breaks into the league around age 23. and i am still waiting for some examples of guys who have been truly horrible players for their entire first year of play, at age 22 through 24, and turned out to be above average major leaguers.

Quick and dirty

Rich Aurilla

Michael Young.

[UMFan83]

Why don't we just look at Theriot and Cedeno's MLB production, since they have just about been in the EXACT amount of games....

 

Stat - Theriot - Cedeno

Games - 210 - 230

Age - Who - Cares

BA - .276 - .247

OB - .341 - .277

OPS - .720 - .626

PA - 770 - 741

AB - 684 - 688

H - 189 - 170

R - 117 - 70

RBI - 61 - 60

BB - 67 - 25

K - 70 - 138

SB - 41 - 11

 

It's so, so close.....

Because that's not a fair comparison? Whether you want to admit it or not, age is relevant to the discussion.

 

It's somewhat relevant, but still players tend to blossom at different ages. If you tried to compare Rich Hill at 24 and Dontrelle Willis at 24, there'd be no discussion

[CubinNY]

Why don't we just look at Theriot and Cedeno's MLB production, since they have just about been in the EXACT amount of games....

 

Stat - Theriot - Cedeno

Games - 210 - 230

Age - Who - Cares

BA - .276 - .247

OB - .341 - .277

OPS - .720 - .626

PA - 770 - 741

AB - 684 - 688

H - 189 - 170

R - 117 - 70

RBI - 61 - 60

BB - 67 - 25

K - 70 - 138

SB - 41 - 11

 

It's so, so close.....

Because that's not a fair comparison? Whether you want to admit it or not, age is relevant to the discussion.

 

It's somewhat relevant, but still players tend to blossom at different ages.

People aren't flowers. However, players tend to get better then plateau at around age 26-28. At least Cedeno has a chance.

 

But really, this is an incredibly stupid argument in many respects. If Theriot or Cedeno stinks it up they should be replaced as fast as possible.

[Abe Frohman]

Because that's not a fair comparison? Whether you want to admit it or not, age is relevant to the discussion.

 

Age is relevent to this discussion, yes. Age does not have anything to do with the performance when each of these guys is playing. Well, very little.

 

But really, this is an incredibly stupid argument in many respects. If Theriot or Cedeno stinks it up they should be replaced as fast as possible.

 

100% agree with you there.

[jersey cubs fan]

you say "23 freaking years old" like it's unheard of for a guy to come up at that age and perform well. i'd venture a guess that the average major leaguer breaks into the league around age 23. and i am still waiting for some examples of guys who have been truly horrible players for their entire first year of play, at age 22 through 24, and turned out to be above average major leaguers.

 

It's not unheard of, but it's rare for a guy to come up at that age and perform well. The greats do it, but not many others.

 

Orlando Cabrera hit .280/.325/.414 in his first substantial exposure to major league pitching at 23. But at 24 and 25 he hit:

 

.254/.293/.403

.237/.279/.393

 

Before turning it up in his late 20's and becoming what I would assume people would call an above average major league shortstop.

 

The Reds' version of Alex Gonzalez hit .200/.229/.319 at age 23. I think he more or less falls into that line of average SS nowadays, although on an inconsistent basis.

 

Michael Barrett came up at a younger age, with initial success, but hit .214/.277/.288 at 23, and continued to struggle for a few years, before turning in a few solid well above average years.

 

Baseballreference.com has Davey Johnson as the closest comparison to Cedeno at age 23. He hit .257/.298/.351 before turning in a really nice career. Ryne Sandberg hit .261/.316/.351 at 23.

 

It's hard to find a lot of comparables, because most guys got either sporadic play at most at that age (or weren't even up) or the guys who became superstars were already showing signs.

 

As I've said before, I have my doubts about Cedeno. The worst thing that happened to him was being added to the 40-man roster so early, thus forcing a rush to the majors. Now he's in limbo, having played behind some truly awful SS in recent years. If he had more options it would have been nice to ease him in at a later age, and then hopefully have him ready now, but with the comfort of an option to go back to AAA.

[Transmogrified Tiger]

am i the only one who is completely sick of hearing/reading the name Ryan Theriot?

 

probably not. am i the only one who is sick of hearing about ronny's "upside" without the caveat that he was horrendous for an entire year and is very unlikely to reach that upside?

 

not nearly as sick as I am of hearing about how horrible Ronny is and how he can't hit ML pitching, without the caveat that he was 23 freaking years old.

 

you say "23 freaking years old" like it's unheard of for a guy to come up at that age and perform well. i'd venture a guess that the average major leaguer breaks into the league around age 23. and i am still waiting for some examples of guys who have been truly horrible players for their entire first year of play, at age 22 through 24, and turned out to be above average major leaguers.

Quick and dirty

Rich Aurilla

Michael Young.

 

Using Cedeno's comparable players, you can add Davey Johnson, Jay Bell, Bill Spiers, and Eddie Taubensee to the list.

[NOLA]

No, Theriot cannot be adequate. He sucks, plain and simple and should be replaced. I never understand the cheering section this guy gets other than the fact his skin is the right color(sorry but you know it's true)

Um, no, sorry. Skin color has nothing to do with it. No, really, it doesn't.

[David]

you say "23 freaking years old" like it's unheard of for a guy to come up at that age and perform well. i'd venture a guess that the average major leaguer breaks into the league around age 23. and i am still waiting for some examples of guys who have been truly horrible players for their entire first year of play, at age 22 through 24, and turned out to be above average major leaguers.

 

It's not unheard of, but it's rare for a guy to come up at that age and perform well. The greats do it, but not many others.

 

Orlando Cabrera hit .280/.325/.414 in his first substantial exposure to major league pitching at 23. But at 24 and 25 he hit:

 

.254/.293/.403

.237/.279/.393

 

Before turning it up in his late 20's and becoming what I would assume people would call an above average major league shortstop.

 

The bolded sparked my interest. Is it really that crazy to think that Theriot could put up the numbers that Cabrera has in most years (aside from his one fluke year in 2003)? Granted, defensively Cabrera wins, but it just got me thinking.

[David]

No, Theriot cannot be adequate. He sucks, plain and simple and should be replaced. I never understand the cheering section this guy gets other than the fact his skin is the right color(sorry but you know it's true)

Um, no, sorry. Skin color has nothing to do with it. No, really, it doesn't.

 

"Gritty" (usually white, fast, high-effort & smallish) players do tend to get a lot of fan-love.

[bukie]

No, Theriot cannot be adequate. He sucks, plain and simple and should be replaced. I never understand the cheering section this guy gets other than the fact his skin is the right color(sorry but you know it's true)

Um, no, sorry. Skin color has nothing to do with it. No, really, it doesn't.

 

"Gritty" (usually white, fast, high-effort & smallish) players do tend to get a lot of fan-love.

 

Like Augie Ojeda.

[CyHawk_Cub]

No, Theriot cannot be adequate. He sucks, plain and simple and should be replaced. I never understand the cheering section this guy gets other than the fact his skin is the right color(sorry but you know it's true)

Um, no, sorry. Skin color has nothing to do with it. No, really, it doesn't.

 

"Gritty" (usually white, fast, high-effort & smallish) players do tend to get a lot of fan-love.

 

Don't forget intelligence a.k.a "high baseball IQ".... So-called underachievers are typically the "toolsy" guys, not the supposedly intelligent ones, as if intelligence is somehow the sole province of the gritty overachiever, & we know the skin tone of those usually deemed intelligent.

 

Sorry; that will be the only time I will post anything race-related on this forum.

[jersey cubs fan]

you say "23 freaking years old" like it's unheard of for a guy to come up at that age and perform well. i'd venture a guess that the average major leaguer breaks into the league around age 23. and i am still waiting for some examples of guys who have been truly horrible players for their entire first year of play, at age 22 through 24, and turned out to be above average major leaguers.

 

It's not unheard of, but it's rare for a guy to come up at that age and perform well. The greats do it, but not many others.

 

Orlando Cabrera hit .280/.325/.414 in his first substantial exposure to major league pitching at 23. But at 24 and 25 he hit:

 

.254/.293/.403

.237/.279/.393

 

Before turning it up in his late 20's and becoming what I would assume people would call an above average major league shortstop.

 

The bolded sparked my interest. Is it really that crazy to think that Theriot could put up the numbers that Cabrera has in most years (aside from his one fluke year in 2003)? Granted, defensively Cabrera wins, but it just got me thinking.

 

Maybe not crazy, but completely unlikely. Cabrera was a regular doing better than Theriot at 25 and 26.

 

FYI, Ryan's closest br.com comparable is Tony Womack.

[TruffleShuffle]

Most of these aren't great examples. Michael Young had a .700 OPS. So did Orlando Cabrera. Alex Gonzalez is kind of a weird example because he was pretty good in his first year, and then atrocious in his second year. Davey Johnson is probably a good example.

 

i'm not saying i'm rooting against ronny becoming a decent player or hoping that he doesn't get a chance. at this point, given that the cubs are contending for a division, i'd rather go with the guy who is bad than the guy who might be a complete black hole. if ronny plays well from the backup spot, or theriot completely tanks, then i'm all for giving ronny another shot.

[TruffleShuffle]

am i the only one who is completely sick of hearing/reading the name Ryan Theriot?

 

probably not. am i the only one who is sick of hearing about ronny's "upside" without the caveat that he was horrendous for an entire year and is very unlikely to reach that upside?

 

not nearly as sick as I am of hearing about how horrible Ronny is and how he can't hit ML pitching, without the caveat that he was 23 freaking years old.

 

you say "23 freaking years old" like it's unheard of for a guy to come up at that age and perform well. i'd venture a guess that the average major leaguer breaks into the league around age 23. and i am still waiting for some examples of guys who have been truly horrible players for their entire first year of play, at age 22 through 24, and turned out to be above average major leaguers.

Quick and dirty

Rich Aurilla

Michael Young.

 

Using Cedeno's comparable players, you can add Davey Johnson, Jay Bell, Bill Spiers, and Eddie Taubensee to the list.

 

well i said above average major leaguers, so you can remove bill spiers and eddie taubensee from the list.

[Abe Frohman]

I totally think the Cubs system plays a part in Cedeno's developement, or lack of. Look at his promotion history:

 

*2002 (19) - between two A ball stops, he hits .214/.261/.557 and is promoted on to High A for 2003. Amassed 31 walks (a career high at all levels) and 99 K in 517 PAs.

 

*2003 (20) - plays High A ball in the FSL and hits .211/.252/.547, "earning" a promotion to AA ball in 2004. Totalled 21 walks and 82 K in 401 PAs.

 

*2004 (21) - plays AA ball and shows a little improvement by compiling .279/.321/.722 in 408 PAs. Despite the fact that he scored only 39 runs, he is promoted to AAA. Walked 24, K'd 74.

 

*2005 (22) - explodes in AAA with .355/.403/.921 in 275 PAs. The boy likes corn? Clearly, he figured something out. 20 BB, 30 Ks.

 

I have no idea if he was pushed along at the right times, but he did show some improvement. I really think the ratio of BB/K shows a lot about a players discipline at the plate, and I would like to see Cedeno make strides in that regard. It can be done, look at Sosa.

[UMFan83]

I totally think the Cubs system plays a part in Cedeno's developement, or lack of. Look at his promotion history:

 

*2002 (19) - between two A ball stops, he hits .214/.261/.557 and is promoted on to High A for 2003. Amassed 31 walks (a career high at all levels) and 99 K in 517 PAs.

 

*2003 (20) - plays High A ball in the FSL and hits .211/.252/.547, "earning" a promotion to AA ball in 2004. Totalled 21 walks and 82 K in 401 PAs.

 

*2004 (21) - plays AA ball and shows a little improvement by compiling .279/.321/.722 in 408 PAs. Despite the fact that he scored only 39 runs, he is promoted to AAA. Walked 24, K'd 74.

 

*2005 (22) - explodes in AAA with .355/.403/.921 in 275 PAs. The boy likes corn? Clearly, he figured something out. 20 BB, 30 Ks.

 

I have no idea if he was pushed along at the right times, but he did show some improvement. I really think the ratio of BB/K shows a lot about a players discipline at the plate, and I would like to see Cedeno make strides in that regard. It can be done, look at Sosa.

 

Theres no doubt that Sosa improved with his plate discipline over the years, but you gotta figure a large majority of his OBP and BB increase was due to pitchers working around him to avoid his power. Either way, its generally the exception. From my understanding, it is very rare to see a player go from below average plate discipline to great plate discipline over the course of a career. It's a very inelastic skill.