2008 NCAA Tournament - Mock Selection/Discussion

[TruffleShuffle]

don't sleep on holy cross, guys!!!

[bukie]

Three conference tournaments start tonight.

 

Lot of bubble teams rooting for Butler in the Horizon. They do have a bye to the semis, though, so we won't see them for a few days yet.

[SouthSideRyan]

I'm in as an Illinois representative(HA)

 

I like to include as many teams as possible when first looking over at-large chances. (i.e. this team could win out only to lose in their conference title game to put it at least on the bubble)

 

*Bold teams could lose the rest of their games + conference tourney 1st round and still be absolute locks. Italics likely still in in that situation, but could possibly be out with an epic collapse. All teams in order of Pomeroy rank sorted by conference.

 

 

Kansas

Texas

Kansas St.

A&M

Baylor

OK

Nebraska(Has to beat KU in the tourney)

 

UCLA

WSU

Stanford

AZ

USC

ASU

Oregon

 

 

Duke

UNC

Clemson

Miami

 

 

Wisconsin

MSU

IU

Purdue

OSU

 

 

Louisville

Marquette

Georgetown

Notre Dame

UConn

West Virginia

Pitt

 

 

 

Tennessee

Vanderbilt

Kentucky

Mississippi St.

Arkansas

Mississippi

 

Illinois St.

 

Xavier

St. Joe's(Needs to beat Xavier on the way to title game)

 

BYU

New Mexico

UNLV

 

Memphis

 

Kent St.(Out with a 1st round loss, semi loss puts them firmly on bubble)

 

Gonzaga

St. Mary's

 

South Alabama

 

EDITED 3/13 to remove auto bids and teams I've removed from consideration.

 

Updated teams with regards to lock/near lock status. Re-ordered non lock/near lock teams in order of their case within the conference.

Edited March 14, 2008 by SouthSideRyan

[bukie]

What, no love for VCU, UMass or Western Kentucky? :)

[bukie]

More conference tournaments start today in the Patriot League, Atlantic Sun, and Sun Belt conferences.

[Clem Fandango]

It's good to finally see my school (South Alabama) get some good recognition across the many analyst sites and such. If anyone out there is rooting for them in any way, you rock

[bukie]

Quite an ending to the Navy-Bucknell Patriot League tournament game last night. Bucknell player banked in a 40-footer as time expired in triple OT to give Bucknell the 87-86 win.

[TruffleShuffle]

Quite an ending to the Navy-Bucknell Patriot League tournament game last night. Bucknell player banked in a 40-footer as time expired in triple OT to give Bucknell the 87-86 win.

 

God i hate bucknell so much.

[bukie]

Today's previews for the Missouri Valley, Northeast, Colonial, and Southern conference tournaments.

[Flames24Rulz]

Today's previews for the Missouri Valley, Northeast, Colonial, and Southern conference tournaments.

 

I'm interested in seeing how Missouri State plays tonight against Evansville. If they completely blow them out of the water, I think they're going to give ISU everything they can handle tomorrow night. Their coach is rumored to be canned after MSU loses in the tournament, so it should be interesting to see how the team performs tonight.

 

And like that article states, it's a joke that Emmenecker won MVC POY over Josh Young and perhaps Klayton Korver. I definitely don't see the logic in that.

[bukie]

Another day, another set of conference tournaments starting in the MAAC, West Coast, America East, Summit League, and Big Sky conferences.

[bukie]

Drake rolled Indiana State today, so bubble teams everywhere are breathing a sigh of relief.

[bukie]

Winthrop, Austin Peay and Belmont qualified today out of the Big South, Ohio Valley and Atlantic Sun conferences.

[ISUCubsFan]

VCU just made it harder on themselves and the rest of the bubble by losing in the CAA semis. That probably drops them out, but if enough bubble teams lose they could sneak back in.

[bukie]

Drake wins today, taking them out of at-large discussion and allowing all bubble teams to breath one sigh of rellief.

 

VCU managed to take the breath back. Still think they deserve a spot, but they made it hard for themselves.

[Guest]

What's everyone's thoughts on Arizona, ASU and Oregon? The bubble teams in the Pac became more muddled this week.

[TruffleShuffle]

good, bucknell's season is over.

[bukie]

What's everyone's thoughts on Arizona, ASU and Oregon? The bubble teams in the Pac became more muddled this week.

 

I think Arizona is still on the top of the heap, with Oregon and Arizona State slightly behind. The Pac-10 tourney will hopefully clarify things a bit more.

 

On an unrelated note, VCU's loss really killed their chances despite a decent RPI. Their conference is only 14th by RPI, and their statistical efficiency puts them 71st, below all 3 of those Pac 10 bubble teams.

[ISUCubsFan]

What's everyone's thoughts on Arizona, ASU and Oregon? The bubble teams in the Pac became more muddled this week.

 

I think Arizona is still on the top of the heap, with Oregon and Arizona State slightly behind. The Pac-10 tourney will hopefully clarify things a bit more.

 

On an unrelated note, VCU's loss really killed their chances despite a decent RPI. Their conference is only 14th by RPI, and their statistical efficiency puts them 71st, below all 3 of those Pac 10 bubble teams.

 

I'd say Arizona>=ASU>Oregon right now. Arizona and ASU are probably in as of now, but winning their quarterfinal games would be a good idea. Oregon probably needs to beat WSU to feel good about their chances. Arizona gets the slight edge because they have a better RPI, SOS, and will get consideration for injuries, but you could make a case for ASU having a better resume. They have more wins over tourney locks (Xavier, Stanford, USC vs. Washington State x 2), finished a game ahead of Arizona, and swept them during the season. Arizona still has lots of wins over bubble teams though. Oregon is a step below Arizona State because they have a worse non-conference loss (Illinois>Oakland), a worse marquee non-conference win (Xavier>K-State), and the difference between the two teams in conference is that ASU split with USC and Cal, while Oregon swept Cal and lost both games to USC.

 

I agree that VCU is in trouble and needs a lot of help this week to get in, though stranger things have happened. Also, though Pomeroy Ratings are much better than RPI and other rating systems at determining who is most likely to win a game between two teams, it doesn't really measure resume strength which is what the committee looks at. As long as you win big and lose close you'll have a high rating (see Illinois). It seems that the committee, for better or worse, looks at just wins and losses.

[UK1679666180]

UK is probably in with a win over the Ole Miss/UGA winner, they'd be almost a lock with a trip to the SEC finals.

[bukie]

UK is probably in with a win over the Ole Miss/UGA winner, they'd be almost a lock with a trip to the SEC finals.

 

 

UK is a weird case this year. Almost like two different teams before and after conference season. It'll be interesting to see how the committee treats their non-con slate, whether they're penalized from selection/seeding because of the awful play prior to conference season.

[cbbryan]

Quite an ending to the Navy-Bucknell Patriot League tournament game last night. Bucknell player banked in a 40-footer as time expired in triple OT to give Bucknell the 87-86 win.

 

God i hate bucknell so much.

 

 

I love Bucknell! Saint Boni is a close second.

[bukie]

Possible bid stealing tonight as San Diego upset St. Mary's last night and plays Gonzaga tonight for the WCC title (at home, since the tournament is in San Diego). Also, Davidson would likely steal an at-large bid should they lose tonight to Elon.

 

Other bids decided tonight in the MAAC and Colonial.

[Guest]

What's everyone's thoughts on Arizona, ASU and Oregon? The bubble teams in the Pac became more muddled this week.

 

I think Arizona is still on the top of the heap, with Oregon and Arizona State slightly behind. The Pac-10 tourney will hopefully clarify things a bit more.

 

Arizona gets Oregon State on Wednesday. On Thursday, Arizona State gets USC, Oregon gets Washington and if Arizona wins on Wednesday, they'll get Stanford.

[bukie]

What's everyone's thoughts on Arizona, ASU and Oregon? The bubble teams in the Pac became more muddled this week.

 

I think Arizona is still on the top of the heap, with Oregon and Arizona State slightly behind. The Pac-10 tourney will hopefully clarify things a bit more.

 

Arizona gets Oregon State on Wednesday. On Thursday, Arizona State gets USC, Oregon gets Washington and if Arizona wins on Wednesday, they'll get Stanford.

 

Oregon gets WSU, but yeah. If any of the 3 can beat Stanford/USC/WSU, I think they jump to the top of the respective bubble pile. Still hard to keep Arizona out with a high RPI and high SOS, but they're like the opposite of Kentucky. At some point, the strong non-con is going to give way to the weak finish.