2008 International Free Agent Market

[Guest]

19-year old OF Dayan Viciedo defected from Cuba. He might be tied to the 2009 amateur draft because he's been declared as being in the U.S.

[questionmarkgrace]

I always wondered why some team hadt tried to convert a cricket player. Similar skill set. If this works out you might see more teams try that route. It would be cool to see what a pro cricket player could do in the majors though.

[Guest]

The Cubs own Australia, signing their third guy in 2008 and fourth guy since 2007 started. This one is their first position player - OF Sean Williams, who got a bonus of about $150,000.

 

The Canberra Times[/url]"]Williams, an outfielder, is the first Australian positional player the Cubs have recruited into their system in a decade. Next March, ahead of the rigorous spring training period, Williams will arrive in the Cubs system alongside three other Australian teenagers pitchers Cody Hams (Victoria), Ryan Searle (Queensland) and Adam Spencer (NSW).

 

They will all play in the rookie league with Chicago feeder club, the Mesa Cubs, which is based in Arizona.

 

Looks like he's headed to the MLB Australian Academy right away.

 

http://canberra.yourguide.com.au/multimedia/images/full/174412.jpg

[Guest]

BA's International Preview: at least 8 players could get a bonus of $1 million or more and Wily Mo Pena's $2.44 million bonus record for non-Cuban international amateur's could be broken by two or three players.

 

The Reds, Athletics, Padres, Astros, Cardinals and Indians are showing more interest in big name international players than they have in the past. The Yankees, Red Sox, Mets and Mariners and even the A's have become serious contenders for Michel Inoa and "Adam Katz of Wasserman Media Group, who represents Inoa, is 'starting the bidding' at $3.5 million." More on Inoa found here (BA premium content).

[Andrew Cashner]

Here is something from ESPN on the free agents:

 

http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/news/story?id=3433834

[Guest]

Here is something from ESPN on the free agents:

 

http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/news/story?id=3433834

 

Fantastic, with some blurbs on the players and everything! I added the new names from ESPN and the link to the original post in the thread.

[craig]

Not the right topic, I think. But I noticed a kid who debuted in the DSL box score, Ramon Garcia. He lists at 6'2", 170, 16 years old. Pitched 2.1 innings, no hits, one walk, and 5 K's. Might be one to keep an eye on?

[Guest]

ESPN Deportes is reporting the Giants have reached a tentative agreement with Dominican 16-year old OF Rafael Rodriguez for $2.5 million, which would break Wily Mo Pena's record for a bonus for a Latin American amateur.

[Guest]

BA preview of OF Rafael Rodriguez and OF Yorman Rodriguez. Rafael reportedly has reached a tentative agreement with the Giants while Yorman's top suitor is the Mariners; the Reds, Red Sox, Yankees and Cardinals are very involved too. BA preview of Venzuelan LHP Adis Portillo, who's been linked to the Royals, Padres and Phillies and is considered the second best pitching prospect behind Michel Inoa.

[YearofDaCubs]

Looks like the A's nabbed Inoa: 4.25mil

 

http://www.baseballamerica.com/today/prospects/international-affairs/2008/266411.html

[Jon]

The Yankees initially were the leader for Inoa, reportedly agreeing to terms with Inoa's Dominican buscon on a deal with a $2.7 million bonus. However, multiple sources have indicated that Katz was then brought into the deal and raised the signing bar to a minimum of $3.5 million. The Yankees reportedly dropped out at that point in principle over having had a deal struck and then taken away.

If true, it looks like Adam Katz did his job.

[Guest]

Looks like the A's nabbed Inoa: 4.25mil

 

http://www.baseballamerica.com/today/prospects/international-affairs/2008/266411.html

 

Not surprising, the A's had become the leading candidate over the last few weeks and were expected to top $4+ million.

 

Besides Inoa, here are a few big name prospects and the teams they are linked to or expected to sign with:

 

RHP Santo Franco, Dominican Republic - linked to Tigers

RHP Eswarling Jimenez, Dominican Republic - many teams

RHP Alving Megias, Venezuela - Red Sox, Indians, Dodgers

RHP Vicente Escobar, Venezuela - Red Sox are the leader, Indians are involved

OF Luis Domoromo, Venezuela - Padres

RHP Adis Portillo, Venezuela - Padres are a contender

SS Alvaro Aristy, Dominican Republic - Padres

SS Gustavo Pierre, Dominican Republic - Blue Jays

SS Giancarlo Arias, Dominican Republic - Yankees

OF Julio Moroban, Dominican Republic - Mariners

OF Rafael Rodriguez, Dominican Republic - rumored to have signed with Giants

OF Yorman Rodriguez, Dominican Republic - strongly linked to Mariners; Reds, Yankees, Red Sox & Cardinals are involved

 

Looks like the A's and Padres are becoming players in Latin America.

[TruffleShuffle]

seems like an extremely un-beane-like move, dropping that sort of money on a 16 year old. the track record of caribbean bonus babies has not been especially good. but, i guess this tells us that they regard him extremely highly.

 

the cubs haven't really been big players in the caribbean/central america region, at least as far as bonuses go. i'd like to see that change; the cubs should be among the top spenders not only at the big league level but also in the draft and international free agency.

[vance_the_cubs_fan]

seems like an extremely un-beane-like move, dropping that sort of money on a 16 year old. the track record of caribbean bonus babies has not been especially good. but, i guess this tells us that they regard him extremely highly.

 

the cubs haven't really been big players in the caribbean/central america region, at least as far as bonuses go. i'd like to see that change; the cubs should be among the top spenders not only at the big league level but also in the draft and international free agency.

 

I think the Cubs are trying to shift focus to Eastern Rim and Australia as we appear to have made a number of signings there.

[Guest]

the cubs haven't really been big players in the caribbean/central america region, at least as far as bonuses go. i'd like to see that change; the cubs should be among the top spenders not only at the big league level but also in the draft and international free agency.

 

Yeah, the Cubs haven't had a bonus baby outside of Larry Suarez in recent years in Latin America, while they've had a few big names in the Pac Rim. Seems like a shift in philosophy to try to nail down some big names on the Pac Rim with less competition and the bonus figures not spiraling out of control there and then just going for quantity in Latin America. I think quantity is great (especially when you consider that you're trying to project 16-18 year olds and there are always a few that you didn't project to grow the way he does), but I'd love to see the Cubs fit in a Latin American bonus baby each year. With Zambrano (and the way he's taken guys like Guzman, Hernandez and Suarez under his wing), you'd think the Cubs would have some inroads in Venezuela, at least. Z supposedly was a big help in the Suarez signing. I'd also think it'd be great if the Cubs were able to make moves in one of the emerging baseball nations like Colombia, Nicaragua, Brazil, etc.

[craig]

It's pretty remarkable how ineffective the Cubs have been in Latin America. I imagine this might be partly a Fleita effect. He ran the show for a while and hired the primary scouts, Serra and Ortega. It's not clear whether either is a very good scout down there. The job requires work (lots of players and scrounging around to find them). And lots of persuasiveness (everybody is a free agent. A smart scout in U.S. can project talent, and doesn't need to be like a college recruiter; you draft the guy, he has not option. But down there, you need to both recognize who's worth it and also persuade him that he should sign with you instead of the other 29 teams.) And lots of money. And scouting brains. You can say Alfredo Francisco and Larry Suarez are really special, but if Franscisco can't hit anything, and Suarez can't find the plate and has a surgery-destined delivery, you're sunk too.

 

We've really been inept down there. Not sure which combination of factors kill us, but somehow or other Serra and Ortega have absolutely not gotten the job done.

[Guest]

SaberScouting.com says the Cubs are in the mix for RHP Adis Portillo, though the Padres are the leading candidate for the Venezuelan. Both BA and SaberScouting consider him the second best Latin American UDFA pitcher behind Inoa.

 

4. Adis Portillo, RHP, Venezuela

Portillo is the consensus second-best pitcher in this year’s crop, and as mentioned in the July 2nd Notes article he is getting bid up due to the “didn’t get Inoa” effect. His profile is along the lines of most high-profile July 2nd pitchers: projectable body (6′3 with room for a lot of bulk), average now velocity (88-92), a feel for a curveball and changeup, a loose arm, and a workable delivery (though it has some effort). Like many other Latin prospects, scouts are sold on his frame due to big feet, hands, and fingers; a good indicator that a frame that will grow.

 

The downside was alluded to in the upside: he’s not polished and no one is really sure what his next 2-3 years of development will look like. Everything except his average velocity and projectable frame is below-average right now, including his control, which worries more than a few scouts. There also is an issue common with pitchers of Portillo’s profile: a disconnect between bullpen performance and game performance, similar to how young hitters having trouble converting BP power into games.

 

The team that likes Portillo the most will be banking (as usual) on his makeup and ability to improve as lots is needed before the upper levels of pro baseball. All those negatives said, Portillo is still an easy $500,000 prospect, and many would pay up to about $800,000, with a few likely willing to go to seven figures. The aforementioned affect could push Portillo as high as $2.0 million, the indicated asking price by some sources. The number that sounds more likely is $1.5 million, with teams like the Cubs, Mariners, Royals, Phillies, and Padres all in the mix, with San Diego the rumored landing spot—another new power on the Latin front.

[Andrew Cashner]

^ Hopefully the Padres are spending a lot of money on other prospects and don't have enough money to land him and we can get a good latin american prospect.

[Guest]

Some more players linked to teams on the eve of the UDFA signing period starting:

 

OF Ramon Flores, Dominican Republic - Yankees ($600,000 - $800,000)

C Oscar Perez, Venezuela - Red Sox ($500,000 - $600,000)

 

BA's Ben Badler will do a chat on international market starting at 1 CT...ask questions: http://www.baseballamerica.com//online/chat/chat.php?id=2008070101

[Guest]

Q: Ian from NH asks:

Is there anyway you can articulate the disparity between neophytes in Latin America and teams that have been entrenched there for a long time? How obvious is it when it comes to buscones connections, knowing which bushes to beat, and not valuating talent correctly?

 

A: Ben Badler: Probably an early frontrunner for question of the day here, and one I'll probably sell short in just a quick chat answer. But basically, the more experienced Latin American scouts a team has working the beat down there, the more likely that team is to have scouts with all sorts of connections with buscones, academy directors, agents and often times the families and the kids themselves. Those relationships mean that you've put yourself in a position where you're less likely that they are to get hosed on a deal, but because you have a good relationship with these people and because you know the drill—you know who's giving you the run-around, who's being honest, and you have a better chance at finding players who are talented players but maybe more under the radar who you can sign for a much lower price. If you're a little newer to the beat, some of the savvier agents and veteran buscones will know that and might be able to drive the price up on players, essentially making a team bid against itself for a pitcher. The players are essentially auctioned, but this isn't like Ebay, where you can see clearly who has the highest bid. If you're offering $700,000 and the agent says that Team X is offering $900,000 so you need to come back with $1 million, are you going to believe him and come up with the $1 million, or are you going to stand pat and hope your $700,000 offer is enough to get it done, but risk losing the player? Lot's of interesting game theory applications here, but I think the most important thing is to have as many good scouts and as many veteran international scouts down there working for you.

 

Q: Brian from LA asks:

Are the Cubs going to be quiet again this year?

 

A: Ben Badler: The Cubs have been one of the leaders in the Pacific Rim in recent years. It's actually a little bit more difficult to get reliable information on players from Asia because there are fewer teams over there, and the ones that are over there are less likely to want to talk about players as a result so as to protect their territory.

 

Q: willy from pitt asks:

How wise is it really to spend millions of dollars on a 16 year old when you could get several more-proven high school and college players for that amount? Isn't the best international strategy to just sign lots of players for small bonuses since those are the ones who turn out to be good anyway?

 

A: Ben Badler: Without having looked at any of this data comprehensively, my instinct is that there is at least some positive correlation between bonus money and major league success. Probably not as strong as with the draft, but if there isn't a correlation, then that's a little scary. There's a few things to keep in mind though, and one is that the market in Latin America has changed significantly in just the last few years. I think the best strategy is a blend of the two—going after some of the high-dollar guys like Inoa or Morban, and then having a strong presence of veteran international scouts to find you some more moderately priced players who you hope can evolve. Of course, it's not easy to just "sign lots of players for small bonuses" because of various practical obstacles, but your point is a valid one that many international scouting directors share.

 

http://www.baseballamerica.com//online/chat/chat.php?id=2008070101&rnd=23

[Andrew Cashner]

Looks like the Padres already have an agreement with Adis Portillo: http://www.philly.com/dailynews/sports/20080701_High-end_Latin_prospects_not_in_Phillies__budget.html

[Guest]

Looks like the Padres already have an agreement with Adis Portillo: http://www.philly.com/dailynews/sports/20080701_High-end_Latin_prospects_not_in_Phillies__budget.html

 

Second place I've heard that with the $2.2 million figure, got to think that's true.

[Guest]

Rangers ($5.2 million) and Reds ($5 million + ML contract) tried to come in at the last moment and swoop up Inoa, but Michel signed with the A's for $4.25 million. Yes, the Reds offered a 16-year old an ML contract (guess we don't learn from Wily Mo). Here's the link (warning: it's in Spanish): http://espndeportes.espn.go.com/news/story?id=696049&s=bei&type=story

 

Fellow DR signings:

 

LHP Carlos Pérez - Atlanta - $600,000

SS Anderson Félix - New York Yankees - $500,000

RHP Pedro Martínez - San Diego - $150,000

SS Jimmy De los Santos - Atlanta - $100,000

[Guest]

Blue Jays: SS Gustavo Pierre, Dominican Republic

 

Indians: SS Jose Osoria, Dominican Republic - $575,000 bonus

 

Padres (seriously, the Padres?):

 

RHP Adis Portillo, Venezuela - $2.2 million

OF Luis Domoromo, Venzuela - $1.2 million

SS Alvaro Aristy, Dominican Republic - $1 million

RHP Elvin Tavarez, Dominican Republic

IF/OF Corey Adamson, Australia

 

Yankees:

 

IF Giancarlo Arias, Dominican Republic

OF Yeico Calderon, Dominican Republic

C/3B Jackson Valera, Venezuela

OF Ramon Flores, Venezuela

[Guest]

Apparently the Nationals' Latin American program is being investigated in a manner similar to the White Sox' before the White Sox got in trouble.