PECOTA PREDICTIONS

[Mephistopheles]

sorry im not that funny

[Post Count Padder]

A thread that became an arguement with Meph. What a surprise.

[Mephistopheles]

there's an argument in this thread?

[Ding Dong Johnson]

I'm really hungry for some pork chops now.

[CubColtPacer]

Speaking of PECOTA....

 

they're supposedly up now.

[JGalt73]

• Last First BA OBP SLG VORP WARP
  Ramirez Aramis .301 .363 .536 40.7 5.8
  Lee Derrek .303 .387 .527 37.7 5.4
  Soriano Alfonso .278 .336 .544 31.0 4.9
  Fukudome Kosuke .289 .401 .504 29.2 4.4
  Soto Geovany .273 .352 .470 23.5 4.7
  Pie Felix .291 .344 .479 21.4 3.7
  DeRosa Mark .286 .360 .439 18.9 3.5
  Patterson Eric .268 .337 .429 17.9 4.2
  Fontenot Mike .282 .357 .431 15.4 2.8
  Cedeno Ronny .278 .326 .422 13.3 3.1
  Murton Matt .295 .359 .462 12.8 2.3
  Theriot Ryan .270 .330 .347 6.4 3.1
  Ward Daryle .277 .358 .459 4.8 0.6
  Colvin Tyler .257 .295 .429 3.4 2.9
  Blanco Henry .224 .267 .350 -1.4 0.7
  

[Derwood]

.401 OBP from Fukodome? YES PLEASE

[JGalt73]

• Last First Role IP WHIP ERA VORP WXRL WARP
  Zambrano Carlos SP 195.7 1.33 3.81 35.8 5.5 4.7
  Hill Rich SP 175.3 1.25 4.02 29.5 4.6 4.0
  Lilly Ted SP 168.7 1.32 4.25 25.7 4.1 3.7
  Howry Bob RP 66.0 1.21 3.60 14.8 1.4 2.2
  Wuertz Michael RP 55.7 1.32 3.47 14.2 1.2 1.9
  Marmol Carlos Swing 68.3 1.39 4.06 13.0 1.3 1.9
  Pignatiello Carmen Swing 54.0 1.36 3.72 11.6 1.2 1.7
  Marshall Sean SP 112.0 1.45 4.74 10.6 1.8 1.8
  Lieber Jon SP 74.3 1.37 4.62 9.2 1.3 1.5
  Gallagher Sean SP 121.3 1.55 4.91 8.7 1.6 1.6
  Dempster Ryan RP 58.0 1.48 4.24 8.2 1.0 1.8
  Marquis Jason SP 132.3 1.48 5.04 8.1 1.7 1.7
  Guzman Angel Swing 61.3 1.43 4.57 7.8 0.9 1.3
  Wood Kerry RP 44.3 1.38 4.25 7.2 0.6 1.0
  Eyre Scott RP 41.7 1.49 4.08 6.9 0.6 1.0
  Cotts Neal RP 41.0 1.47 4.31 6.4 0.6 1.0
  Miller Wade Swing 57.0 1.56 5.41 1.7 0.4 0.6
  Petrick Billy Swing 54.3 1.64 5.38 1.4 0.2 0.5
  Veal Donnie SP 110.0 1.68 5.63 0.4 0.8 0.8
  Ceda Jose Swing 61.0 1.93 5.55 0.3 0.4 0.4
  Takatsu Shingo RP 39.7 1.56 5.67 -0.2 0.0 0.4
  Hart Kevin Swing 96.7 1.62 5.80 -2.0 0.3 0.5
  Mateo Juan Swing 83.7 1.65 6.21 -4.9 -0.1 0.1
  Pawelek Mark Swing 55.3 2.11 8.14 -14.6 -1.5 -1.1
  Samardzija Jeff SP 100.0 1.86 7.43 -20.0 -1.4 -1.3
  

[CubColtPacer]

Well, it looks like PECOTA still loves Pie. That .479 slugging number is a little crazy for him.

 

Last year PECOTA projected that the Cubs were going to have one of the best offenses and one of the worst pitching staffs in the National League. From looking at those hitting and pitching numbers, my guess is their prediction will be the same again this year, even though it turned out to be the opposite last year.

 

Thanks JGalt for providing those numbers btw. It is much appreciated.

[TruffleShuffle]

• Last First BA OBP SLG VORP WARP
  Ramirez Aramis .301 .363 .536 40.7 5.8
  Lee Derrek .303 .387 .527 37.7 5.4
  Soriano Alfonso .278 .336 .544 31.0 4.9
  Fukudome Kosuke .289 .401 .504 29.2 4.4
  Soto Geovany .273 .352 .470 23.5 4.7
  Pie Felix .291 .344 .479 21.4 3.7
  DeRosa Mark .286 .360 .439 18.9 3.5
  Patterson Eric .268 .337 .429 17.9 4.2
  Fontenot Mike .282 .357 .431 15.4 2.8
  Cedeno Ronny .278 .326 .422 13.3 3.1
  Murton Matt .295 .359 .462 12.8 2.3
  Theriot Ryan .270 .330 .347 6.4 3.1
  Ward Daryle .277 .358 .459 4.8 0.6
  Colvin Tyler .257 .295 .429 3.4 2.9
  Blanco Henry .224 .267 .350 -1.4 0.7
  

 

i'm somewhat confused about how kosuke only has a 4.4 WARP with a .905 OPS and .401 OBP. seems like it'd be significantly higher than 4.4. i really hope he's that good, or close to it.

 

soto posting that line would make me very happy.

[CubColtPacer]

• Last First BA OBP SLG VORP WARP
  Ramirez Aramis .301 .363 .536 40.7 5.8
  Lee Derrek .303 .387 .527 37.7 5.4
  Soriano Alfonso .278 .336 .544 31.0 4.9
  Fukudome Kosuke .289 .401 .504 29.2 4.4
  Soto Geovany .273 .352 .470 23.5 4.7
  Pie Felix .291 .344 .479 21.4 3.7
  DeRosa Mark .286 .360 .439 18.9 3.5
  Patterson Eric .268 .337 .429 17.9 4.2
  Fontenot Mike .282 .357 .431 15.4 2.8
  Cedeno Ronny .278 .326 .422 13.3 3.1
  Murton Matt .295 .359 .462 12.8 2.3
  Theriot Ryan .270 .330 .347 6.4 3.1
  Ward Daryle .277 .358 .459 4.8 0.6
  Colvin Tyler .257 .295 .429 3.4 2.9
  Blanco Henry .224 .267 .350 -1.4 0.7
  

 

i'm somewhat confused about how kosuke only has a 4.4 WARP with a .905 OPS and .401 OBP. seems like it'd be significantly higher than 4.4. i really hope he's that good, or close to it.

 

soto posting that line would make me very happy.

 

Fukudome's projected PT is probably way down on the model because of the injury last year, which is throwing off his WARP.

[JGalt73]

 

i'm somewhat confused about how kosuke only has a 4.4 WARP with a .905 OPS and .401 OBP. seems like it'd be significantly higher than 4.4. i really hope he's that good, or close to it.

 

soto posting that line would make me very happy.

 

PECOTA assumes only 465 PA for Fukudome.

[sneakypower]

they're optimistic for about every position player.

 

i'm going to take the under on the guzman proj too.

[Ender]

Cubs -

 

Aramis Ramirez - .301/.363/.536, 5.8 WARP

Derrek Lee - .296/.381/.517, 5.4 WARP

Alfosnso Soriano - .278/.336/.544, 4.9 WARP

Geovany Soto - .273/.352/.470, 4.7 WARP

Kosuke Fukudome - .289/.401/.504, 4.4 WARP

Felix Pie - .284/.339/.470, 3.7 WARP

Mark DeRosa - .286, .360, .439, 3.3 WARP

Ryan Theriot - .270/.330/.347, 3.1 WARP

 

Carlos Zambrano - 3.81 ERA, 1.33 WHIP, 4.7 WARP

Rich Hill - 4.02 ERA, 1.25 WHIP, 4.7 WARP

Ted Lilly - 4.25 ERA, 1.32 WHIP, 3.7 WARP

Bob Howry - 3.60 ERA, 1.21 WHIP, 2.2 WARP

Michael Wuertz - 3.47 ERA, 1.32 WHIP, 1.9 WARP

Carlos Marmol - 4.06 ERA, 1.39 WHIP, 1.9 WARP

Sean Marshal - 4.74 ERA, 1.45 WHIP, 1.8 WARP

Ryan Dempster - 4.24 ERA, 1.48 WHIP, 1.8 WARP

Jason Marquis - 5.04 ERA, 1.48 WHIP, 1.7 WARP

Jon Lieber - 4.62 ERA, 1.37 WHIP, 1.5 WARP

Kerry Wood - 4.25 ERA, 1.38 WHIP, 1.0 WARP

 

Brewers

 

Ryan Braun - .300/.367/575, 6.1 WARP

Corey Hart - .288/.358/.528, 5.9 WARP

Prince Fielder - .287/.384/.560, 5.5 WARP

JJ Hardy - .273/.329/.441, 4.4 WARP

Mike Cameron - .269/.356/.493, 4.4 WARP

Rickie Weeks - .265/.368/.454, 3.5 WARP

Bill Hall - .267/.335/.482, 3.5 WARP

Jason Kendall - .255/.324/.321, 1.7 WARP

 

Yovani Gallardo - 3.88 ERA, 1.32 WHIP, 4.8 WARP

Ben Sheets - 3.93 ERA, 1.24 WHIP, 3.9 WARP

Eric Gagne - 3.38 ERA, 1.28 WHIP, 3.9 WARP

Dave Bush - 4.31 ERA, 1.32 WHIP, 3.7 WARP

Chris Capuano - 4.51 ERA, 1.39 WHIP, 2.9 WARP

Jeff Suppan - 4.84 ERA, 1.47 WHIP, 2.4 WARP

David Riske - 3.96 ERA, 1.35 WHIP, 1.7 WARP

Carlos Villanueva - 4.72 ERA, 1.44 WHIP, 1.4 WARP

Saloman Torres - 4.29 ERA, 1.42 WHIP, 1.4 WARP

Derrick Turnbow - 4.56 ERA, 1.54 WHIP, 1.2 WARP

Brian Shouse - 4.12 ERA, 1.40 WHIP, 1.0 WARP

 

 

Totals -

 

Brewers had a 35 WARP out of the every day hitters, the Cubs a 35.3. Brewers a 28.3 out of rotation and top 6 RP, Cubs a 26.9.

 

PECOTA thinks the two teams are pretty much even.

[DenverCubs]

 

Totals -

 

Brewers had a 35 WARP out of the every day hitters, the Cubs a 35.3. Brewers a 28.3 out of rotation and top 6 RP, Cubs a 26.9.

 

PECOTA thinks the two teams are pretty much even.

It's hard for me to see how the Brewers have as good a pitching staff as the Cubs. :-k

[UMFan83]

Quite odd PECOTA is projecting the Cubs to have a slight better offense, and the Brewers to have better pitching. I would have thought it was the other way around.

[UMFan83]

Also as someone mentioned in the thread that never ends, PECOTA projects BRob's WARP at 6.6, which would be the highest on the Cubs and would give the Cubs a 3.3 WARP boost over DeRosa. Maybe we need to get this guy.

[Ender]

 

Totals -

 

Brewers had a 35 WARP out of the every day hitters, the Cubs a 35.3. Brewers a 28.3 out of rotation and top 6 RP, Cubs a 26.9.

 

PECOTA thinks the two teams are pretty much even.

It's hard for me to see how the Brewers have as good a pitching staff as the Cubs. :-k

 

Not hard for me at all. Last year the Brewers arguably had a better pitching staff, they had better peripherals than the Cubs but a much worse DER which is usually the fault of the defense. The defense has been shifted around so it should be about average now instead of 3rd worst in the league.

 

The real key to that projection is Gagne, not sure I buy into a 3.38 ERA for him, I'm thinking more in the mid to high 3.00's. The other key of course is Marmol which I see as sort of a higher upside Turnbow but I'm sure others see as more of a Broxton type. Depends on if his BB/9 from the first half is the reality or from the second half.

[Rob]

Just because I can... I ran the baseballmusings lineup analysis tool, making a very unrealistic assumption our starters were Soto, Lee, Roberts, Cedeno, Ramirez, Soriano, Pie, and Fukudome

 

With a league average pitcher, this lineup scores 5.533 runs per game.

 

Fukudome

Ramirez

Soto

Soriano

Lee

Pie

Cedeno

Pitcher

Roberts

 

I just find it hilarious that Hendry is trying to acquire a top of the order hitter who would help our team most batting 9th.

[sneakypower]

let's see- i've learned in this thread that brian roberts would be the best player on the team if we acquired him and would be best suited hitting 9th.

[1908]

The defense has been shifted around so it should be about average now instead of 3rd worst in the league.

How do you figure average? Jay Jaffe ran some numbers today at BP that suggests they've improved the defense but are still a below average defensive team.

 

http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=7093

[Ender]

That baseballmusings lineup thing always creates really goofy looking lineups, I wouldn't buy too much into the lineup it spits out. The runs/game it spits out seems relatively accurate though.

[DenverCubs]

Also as someone mentioned in the thread that never ends, PECOTA projects BRob's WARP at 6.6, which would be the highest on the Cubs and would give the Cubs a 3.3 WARP boost over DeRosa. Maybe we need to get this guy.

There must be some mistake here...I will not believe that Brian Roberts is more valuable than Derrek Lee, Aramis Ramirez, Ryan Braun, Prince Fielder and Carlos Zambrano. How many stolen bases did they give him? 100 while being caught like twice?

EDIT: Does he get like 100 AB's more than these guys? (not Z)

[haltz]

WARP thinks that the difference between an average 2B and a replacement level 2B in terms of fielding runs is about 28. Last year year for Roberts anyway. He get a 30 VORP for his projected .293 EQA and 3 full wins for being an average defender. It's really stupid. Nobody gets a cup of coffee that's -30 fielding and a .225 EQA hitter. WARP is [expletive].

 

And yes, it projects Roberts to get something like 170 more plate appearances than DeRosa.

Edited February 1, 2008 by haltz

[Ender]

The defense has been shifted around so it should be about average now instead of 3rd worst in the league.

How do you figure average? Jay Jaffe ran some numbers today at BP that suggests they've improved the defense but are still a below average defensive team.

 

http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=7093

 

Well defense is a tricky beast since every system disagrees on different players. Plus/Minus had them at -48 last year and about -30 of that was Braun alone, another -10 was Hall in CF. Then again Kendall may be worse than Estrada defensively and Weeks will play more so it is hard to say. You would think some guys would improve over last year just with age.

 

I'll say closer to average than last year by a lot and leave it at that.