EVERYBODY LOVES PLAYER RANKINGS!

[Mephistopheles]

SCORE Name

98.4 Ryan Braun

97.6 Alex Rodriguez

97.6 David Wright

96.1 Russell Martin

96.0 Hanley Ramirez

95.8 Albert Pujols

93.5 Matt Holliday

93.3 Chase Utley

92.9 Jimmy Rollins

92.2 Miguel Cabrera

92.0 Derek Jeter

90.9 Vladimir Guerrero

89.6 David Ortiz

88.8 Lance Berkman

88.6 Jose Reyes

88.2 Victor Martinez

88.1 Ryan Howard

87.6 Prince Fielder

87.3 Nick Markakis

87.2 Joe Mauer

86.8 Hunter Pence

85.6 Miguel Tejada

85.4 Carlos Guillen

85.0 Michael Young

84.4 Troy Tulowitzki

84.0 Carlos Beltran

83.7 Jorge Posada

82.4 Carlos Lee

81.2 JR Towles

80.9 Bobby Abreu

80.7 Grady Sizemore

80.5 Kenji Johjima

78.9 Alfonso Soriano

78.9 Robinson Cano

78.4 Brian McCann

77.0 Garrett Atkins

76.6 Mark Teixeira

75.1 Magglio Ordonez

74.4 Ryan Zimmerman

73.9 Edgar Renteria

73.4 Travis Hafner

72.8 Corey Hart

72.6 Chipper Jones

71.7 Curtis Granderson

70.8 BJ Upton

70.5 Brandon Phillips

69.7 Rafael Furcal

69.1 Todd Helton

68.9 Tadahito Iguchi

68.9 Manny Ramirez

68.0 Matt Kemp

67.7 Josh Fields

64.9 Carl Crawford

64.1 Aramis Ramirez

64.0 Torii Hunter

63.3 Joey Votto

63.1 Kelly Johnson

62.6 Mark Reynolds

61.3 Derrek Lee

60.7 Adrian Beltre

60.7 Gary Sheffield

60.2 Adam Dunn

56.3 Jhonny Peralta

55.8 Hideki Matsui

55.5 Chris Young

54.8 Justin Morneau

53.8 Alexis Rios

52.4 Dan Uggla

52.1 Carlos Ruiz

51.0 JJ Hardy

50.9 Lastings Milledge

49.6 Josh Hamilton

48.5 Jeff Kent

48.4 Ichiro Suzuki

46.3 Ian Kinsler

46.0 Howie Kendrick

45.9 Delmon Young

45.7 Juan Encarnacion

45.5 Ivan Rodriguez

45.4 Geovany Soto

45.1 Brian Roberts

44.7 Orlando Cabrera

43.3 Aaron Rowand

42.8 Paul Konerko

42.4 Adrian Gonzalez

42.1 Johnny Damon

41.2 Alex Gordon

41.1 Brad Hawpe

40.8 Jason Bay

40.5 Kevin Kouzmanoff

38.6 Jeff Francoeur

37.9 Andruw Jones

34.5 Vernon Wells

33.5 Carlos Delgado

32.9 AJ Pierzynski

30.2 Rickie Weeks

29.5 Khalil Greene

28.4 Placido Polanco

27.7 Chone Figgins

27.4 Raul Ibanez

26.9 Mike Napoli

26.4 Kevin Youkilis

26.3 Troy Glaus

25.4 Kazuo Matsui

24.7 Jarrod Saltalamacchia

23.9 Jason Varitek

21.6 Nick Swisher

21.4 Jeremy Hermida

21.0 Felipe Lopez

19.5 Juan Pierre

19.1 Felix Pie

17.9 JD Drew

17.6 Justin Upton

16.2 Bengie Molina

16.1 Julio Lugo

14.2 Austin Kearns

14.2 Aaron Hill

12.2 Carlos Pena

12.0 Michael Cuddyer

11.3 Paul Lo Duca

10.7 Ronny Paulino

10.4 Jacoby Ellsbury

9.6 Luis Castillo

9.4 Josh Willingham

8.9 Ryan Doumit

8.7 Ryan Theriot

7.3 Jose Guillen

6.8 Ramon Hernandez

5.9 Eric Byrnes

5.9 Gary Matthews

4.4 Billy Butler

3.6 Pat Burrell

3.2 Scott Rolen

2.8 Akinori Iwamura

2.1 Yuniesky Betancourt

1.8 Jermaine Dye

1.4 Orlando Hudson

0.8 Jason Bartlett

0.7 Freddy Sanchez

-0.2 James Loney

-0.8 Stephen Drew

-0.8 Adam LaRoche

-1.4 Eric Chavez

-5.2 Andre Ethier

-6.2 Jack Cust

-6.3 Conor Jackson

-6.4 Bill Hall

-7.0 David Eckstein

-7.2 Mike Jacobs

-7.3 Hank Blalock

-8.1 Rocco Baldelli

-8.2 Dustin Pedroia

-8.3 Melky Cabrera

-9.2 Mark Ellis

-9.3 Jim Thome

-10.6 Rick Ankiel

-11.8 Willy Taveras

-12.1 Mark Teahen

-13.0 Melvin Mora

-13.0 Ken Griffey

-13.7 Yunel Escobar

-15.9 David DeJesus

-19.5 Kurt Suzuki

-22.3 Mike Lowell

-22.5 John Buck

-22.5 Ryan Garko

-22.8 Brandon Wood

-23.0 Garret Anderson

-26.8 Moises Alou

-27.4 Shane Victorino

-27.7 Brian Giles

-28.2 Jack Wilson

-30.5 Frank Thomas

-30.6 Ty Wigginton

-35.6 Matt Diaz

-36.3 Chris Duncan

-36.9 Joey Gathright

-38.2 Randy Winn

-39.4 Cristian Guzman

-40.0 Ron Belliard

-40.4 Wily Mo Pena

-43.2 Chris Snyder

-44.6 Dioner Navarro

-46.3 Gerald Laird

-46.6 Daric Barton

-47.0 Dmitri Young

-47.7 Michael Barrett

-48.0 Luke Scott

-48.0 Dave Ross

-48.1 Gregg Zaun

-48.3 Franklin Gutierrez

-50.1 Josh Bard

-50.7 Danny Richar

-52.3 Xavier Nady

-52.6 Jason Kendall

-53.1 Ray Durham

-54.1 Coco Crisp

-54.3 Chris Denorfia

-54.6 Jason Giambi

-56.4 Mark DeRosa

-56.7 Brendan Harris

-57.1 Ross Gload

-57.4 Jason Kubel

-57.6 Nomar Garciaparra

-59.9 Marcus Thames

-60.9 Jacque Jones

-60.9 Asdrubal Cabrera

-61.3 Aubrey Huff

-61.6 Yorvit Torrealba

-61.7 Jose Bautista

-61.8 Travis Buck

-62.2 Richie Sexson

-62.5 Adam Everett

-63.8 Bobby Crosby

-64.5 Lyle Overbay

-65.2 Jose Vidro

-65.5 Ryan Church

-65.7 Alex Gonzalez

-66.2 Tony Pena

-67.2 Casey Kotchman

-67.3 Adam Lind

-68.0 Jonny Gomes

-69.0 Jose Lopez

-69.5 Casey Blake

-71.4 Jim Edmonds

-71.9 Frank Catalanotto

-72.0 Dan Ortmeier

-72.2 Joe Crede

-72.4 Yadier Molina

-72.6 Omar Vizquel

-72.6 Nate McLouth

-73.1 Brian Schneider

-73.5 Brandon Jones

-73.5 Ryan Freel

-74.5 Brendan Ryan

-76.0 Mike Rabelo

-76.9 Geoff Jenkins

-78.1 Carlos Quentin

-78.4 Kevin Millar

-78.8 Carlos Gomez

-79.2 Erick Aybar

-79.2 Josh Barfield

-79.2 Mark Grudzielanek

-79.7 Marcus Giles

-79.8 Wilson Betemit

-80.0 Marlon Byrd

-80.1 Michael Bourn

-80.3 Dave Roberts

-80.4 Ben Broussard

-81.0 Milton Bradley

-81.5 Kendry Morales

-82.6 Adam Jones

-83.0 Adam Kennedy

-83.7 Mike Lamb

-85.0 Dan Johnson

-85.4 Cliff Floyd

-85.6 Scott Hairston

-87.9 Cody Ross

-88.6 Rich Aurilia

-88.9 Mark Kotsay

-88.9 Elijah Dukes

-89.0 Jay Payton

-89.2 Reed Johnson

-89.2 Gabe Gross

-89.3 Jason Michaels

-89.6 Josh Wilson

-90.1 Wes Helms

-90.4 Jorge Cantu

-91.5 Luis Hernandez

-91.7 Scott Hatteberg

-93.6 Chris Snelling

-95.1 Jay Gibbons

-96.0 Craig Monroe

[sneakypower]

What's the fantasy league scoring system these are reflecting?

[Mephistopheles]

5x5

[Clem Fandango]

J.R. Towles sure is ranked high above some pretty proven fantasy producers considering he's had only 40AB. Are these rankings based on 2007 performance regardless of quantity of AB's? And are these your own rankings or are these from a website that has pre-ranked players?

 

There is one thing about J.R. Towles that you can take to the bank though... his girlfriend/spouse is hotter than hot

[Mephistopheles]

bill james stats..my rankings

[sneakypower]

SCORE Name

98.4 Ryan Braun

97.6 Alex Rodriguez

97.6 David Wright

96.1 Russell Martin

96.0 Hanley Ramirez

95.8 Albert Pujols

93.5 Matt Holliday

93.3 Chase Utley...

 

Catchers are far too high-risk/low-reward to merit such inflated rankings. As long as you can get one of the top-6 or so catchers out there, you'll be fine. I would reach on one if the only other alternatives were players the level of Estrada/Napoli, but there's more depth in the position than your rankings indicate. I definitely would not draft a catcher in the top 25.

 

There's other disagreements I have, but that's moreso with Bill James. I see Towles is this year's Chris Iannetta, who he had as .900+ OPS last year.

[Clem Fandango]

SCORE Name

98.4 Ryan Braun

97.6 Alex Rodriguez

97.6 David Wright

96.1 Russell Martin

96.0 Hanley Ramirez

95.8 Albert Pujols

93.5 Matt Holliday

93.3 Chase Utley...

 

Catchers are far too high-risk/low-reward to merit such inflated rankings. As long as you can get one of the top-6 or so catchers out there, you'll be fine. I would reach on one if the only other alternatives were players the level of Estrada/Napoli, but there's more depth in the position than your rankings indicate. I definitely would not draft a catcher in the top 25.

 

There's other disagreements I have, but that's moreso with Bill James. I see Towles is this year's Chris Iannetta, who he had as .900+ OPS last year.

 

Yeah, but Martin is one of the few catchers that gives you a good amount of stolen bases though, making him more valuable than a lot of other players since he's at a typically offensively depleted position. So all others who might out perform from other positions won't rank higher because there's likely much more alternatives at those positions. While I think that ranking might be a bit high, I don't think it's too far off, especially if he repeats/improves on his numbers form last year

[Mephistopheles]

SCORE Name

98.4 Ryan Braun

97.6 Alex Rodriguez

97.6 David Wright

96.1 Russell Martin

96.0 Hanley Ramirez

95.8 Albert Pujols

93.5 Matt Holliday

93.3 Chase Utley...

 

Catchers are far too high-risk/low-reward to merit such inflated rankings. As long as you can get one of the top-6 or so catchers out there, you'll be fine. I would reach on one if the only other alternatives were players the level of Estrada/Napoli, but there's more depth in the position than your rankings indicate. I definitely would not draft a catcher in the top 25.

 

There's other disagreements I have, but that's moreso with Bill James. I see Towles is this year's Chris Iannetta, who he had as .900+ OPS last year.

 

Martin's going around 30th in most drafts, and he's clearly undervalued. The rankings posted above are based off of James, but do not really convert to pts over replacement player. They correlate but weren't found by them. They were found using a lognormal distribution of the players over replacement players in three ways and then compositing them for an overall score.

 

Replacement level was defined to be the average player for players 16-25 at the position (48-75 for OFs) with a minimum of 400 AB. A large sample was needed to be taken otherwise you'd see that the replacement level OF, SS and 3B would steal about 20 bases. Diluting the Theriots was needed. These players should be freely available on waiver wires in most leagues. The three distributions:

 

1. A log normal distribution using ALL of the players for the distribution, not adjusting for position. Then doing a players percentile minus a replacement level players percentile for his position.

2. A log normal distribution using players ONLY at his position. Then doing that players percentile minus a replacement level players percentile for his position. You would think this would make guys at C inflated because obviously there will be catchers who have to rank in the upper 90 percentile and there's no adjustment if its all watered down and the distribution is low. A guy who has 20 HRs and RP level is 13 HR would get as much credit as a 3B with 50 HR when RP level is like 18 HR. However! this is exactly the opposite of what happens (more on this later).

3. A normal (not log) distribution of a players value over a replacement player for his position in a stat, compared to ALL players. So Martin would have a (his HR total - HR_RP_Catcher) and Ramirez (his HR total - HR_RP_3B). Then that distribution off the values over RP for each stat.

 

Those three scores were then equally rated and scaled on (-100,100) where 0 is a replacement level player.

 

Now that I've done a mock draft, which a thread will becoming for shortly, I've been able to incorporate point values as if it were a roto league. This can be done by finding the average team total for a stat and then the standard deviation. Then you can find the percentile rank among teams using a normal distribution and thus find expected roto points. So using that framework we can insert our new player to an average team or a replacement level team or your very own team.

 

Two theories were used here. The first was pts added over an average player at your position with the rest of the team being average. Obviously there will only be a handful of positive players. The second was pts added over a replacement level player for the position, with the rest of the team being average again. The problem with only using the second is that it does not take in account the relative distribution of the above-replacement level players. Are there 2 or 3 uber elite guys and 10 fringe above average guys? Or 10 uber elite and only 3 fringe? Obviously the elite guys in the former will be underrated based on pts over replacement level and the pts over average player will help them, and opposite on the latter. The first thing that strikes out is that this method tends to make more one and two category performers more valuable. It helps guys like Carl Crawford, Ichiro, Brian Roberts, Adam Dunn, and Chris Young. It hurt guys who weren't overly great in anything, like Michael Young, Edgar Renteria, Ryan Zimmerman and Carlos Guillen. Still, Carl Crawford is going in the top fifteen picks in most drafts, which is a joke. This way he's still only the 31st ranked position player. The SBs just don't mean what you guys think. Jose Reyes has been going top five, he's now looking like a fringe first rounder, but those SBs just aren't worth it. Reyes is a two category performer after all. What does appear, is that the catcher inflation that CroMagnon thought was apparent does not exist. In the composite one Martins down to number 8. He's number 6 in the pts over average. So yes, he certainly should be a first rounder easy. The fact he's going in the middle of the third round in most drafts is a steal. Anyways:

 

 

     PTS_A	     PTS_RP	 SC_PTS	Name
    14.68	     27.42	   99.84	Ryan Braun
    14.02	     26.76	   99.78	Alex Rodriguez
    11.20	     22.92	   99.14	Albert Pujols
    10.49	     23.23	   99.00	David Wright
    10.83	     20.09	   98.41	Matt Holliday
     8.74	     21.54	   98.06	Hanley Ramirez
     8.83	     20.55	   97.85	Ryan Howard
     9.89	     18.27	   97.27	Russell Martin
     7.54	     20.28	   97.01	Miguel Cabrera
     7.14	     19.94	   96.59	Jimmy Rollins
     6.57	     19.37	   95.88	Jose Reyes
     8.16	     17.42	   95.88	Vladimir Guerrero
     7.97	     17.23	   95.61	Carlos Beltran
     6.68	     18.40	   95.48	David Ortiz
     7.98	     17.02	   95.43	Chase Utley
     6.68	     15.94	   93.37	Grady Sizemore
     5.66	     14.92	   91.00	Bobby Abreu
     6.16	     14.54	   90.97	Victor Martinez
     5.18	     14.45	   89.69	Alfonso Soriano
     3.54	     15.26	   88.33	Prince Fielder
     4.72	     13.98	   88.26	Nick Markakis
     2.66	     15.46	   86.80	Derek Jeter
     4.54	     12.92	   85.87	Joe Mauer
     3.92	     13.18	   85.44	Carlos Lee
     3.92	     13.18	   85.42	Hunter Pence
     3.91	     13.17	   85.41	Adam Dunn
     3.73	     12.77	   84.21	BJ Upton
     2.30	     14.02	   83.75	Lance Berkman
     3.14	     12.40	   82.21	Manny Ramirez
     1.79	     13.51	   81.56	Mark Teixeira
     2.75	     12.01	   80.41	Carl Crawford
     2.55	     11.81	   79.45	Magglio Ordonez
      .77	     13.58	   78.81	Miguel Tejada
     2.92	     11.30	   78.81	Jorge Posada
     2.39	     11.43	   77.99	Brandon Phillips
     1.97	     11.24	   76.44	Chris Young
     2.01	     11.05	   75.98	Robinson Cano
     1.62	     10.89	   74.46	Ichiro Suzuki
     1.54	     10.80	   73.97	Curtis Granderson
     1.89	     10.27	   73.13	JR Towles
     -.34	     12.46	   72.70	Troy Tulowitzki
     1.40	     10.44	   72.41	Brian Roberts
      .03	     11.75	   72.18	Travis Hafner
     1.55	      9.93	   71.07	Brian McCann
      .86	     10.12	   69.80	Corey Hart
     -.98	     11.76	   68.51	Garrett Atkins
      .63	      9.90	   68.29	Torii Hunter
      .58	      9.84	   67.94	Matt Kemp
      .92	      9.30	   66.98	Kenji Johjima
    -1.40	     11.40	   65.86	Rafael Furcal
    -1.42	     11.39	   65.74	Michael Young
      .23	      9.27	   64.65	Dan Uggla
     -.13	      9.13	   62.91	Johnny Damon
    -1.86	     10.94	   62.58	Carlos Guillen
    -1.61	     10.11	   60.91	Todd Helton
     -.35	      8.69	   60.36	Tadahito Iguchi
     -.78	      8.48	   57.91	Gary Sheffield
     -.73	      8.31	   57.36	Kelly Johnson
    -2.58	     10.16	   56.82	Ryan Zimmerman
    -1.00	      8.26	   56.15	Andruw Jones
    -1.18	      8.09	   54.69	Juan Pierre
    -1.51	      7.75	   51.86	Hideki Matsui
    -1.44	      7.60	   51.45	Ian Kinsler
    -1.48	      7.56	   51.08	Rickie Weeks
    -3.40	      9.34	   50.00	Aramis Ramirez
    -1.92	      7.34	   48.22	Lastings Milledge
    -2.09	      7.17	   46.70	Brad Hawpe
    -3.32	      8.40	   46.60	Justin Morneau
    -3.81	      8.92	   46.31	Josh Fields
    -2.16	      6.88	   45.03	Jeff Kent
    -2.65	      6.61	   41.50	Alexis Rios
    -4.41	      8.39	   41.03	Edgar Renteria
    -3.92	      7.80	   40.99	Paul Konerko
    -2.71	      6.55	   40.93	Nick Swisher
    -4.53	      8.21	   39.64	Chipper Jones
    -4.66	      8.08	   38.44	Chone Figgins
    -3.02	      6.24	   37.91	Jacoby Ellsbury
    -3.04	      6.22	   37.76	Jason Bay
    -5.02	      7.78	   35.18	Jhonny Peralta
    -5.12	      7.68	   34.21	JJ Hardy
    -3.45	      5.81	   33.65	Raul Ibanez
    -3.34	      5.70	   33.59	Felipe Lopez
    -3.48	      5.78	   33.39	Delmon Young
    -3.56	      5.71	   32.62	Josh Hamilton
    -5.25	      7.48	   32.59	Mark Reynolds
    -3.57	      5.69	   32.46	Pat Burrell
    -5.37	      7.37	   31.43	Adrian Beltre
    -3.24	      5.14	   31.16	Geovany Soto
    -3.60	      5.44	   30.97	Kazuo Matsui
    -3.73	      5.54	   30.89	Aaron Rowand
    -3.27	      5.11	   30.84	Carlos Ruiz
    -3.77	      5.49	   30.42	Jeff Francoeur
    -5.18	      6.54	   28.45	Joey Votto
    -4.00	      5.04	   26.84	Howie Kendrick
    -4.17	      5.09	   26.31	Vernon Wells
    -4.17	      5.09	   26.26	Eric Byrnes
    -4.38	      4.88	   24.05	Felix Pie
    -4.01	      4.37	   23.19	Ivan Rodriguez
    -4.07	      4.31	   22.62	AJ Pierzynski
    -4.20	      4.18	   21.19	Mike Napoli
    -4.86	      4.41	   19.04	Mike Cameron
    -6.11	      5.61	   18.70	Adrian Gonzalez
    -6.17	      5.55	   18.08	Derrek Lee
    -4.88	      4.16	   17.60	Placido Polanco
    -5.02	      4.24	   17.23	Austin Kearns
    -6.83	      5.91	   16.23	Troy Glaus
    -4.68	      3.70	   16.14	Jason Varitek
    -6.93	      5.81	   15.20	Alex Gordon
    -6.99	      5.81	   14.84	Orlando Cabrera
    -5.29	      3.97	   14.34	Jack Cust
    -6.52	      5.20	   14.32	Carlos Delgado
    -4.92	      3.46	   13.49	Jarrod Saltalamacchia
    -5.40	      3.86	   13.17	JD Drew
    -5.47	      3.79	   12.37	Justin Upton
    -5.59	      3.68	   11.11	Jermaine Dye
    -5.57	      3.47	   10.03	Luis Castillo
    -7.57	      5.23	    8.58	Khalil Greene
    -5.93	      3.33	    7.33	Michael Cuddyer
    -5.49	      2.88	    7.26	Bengie Molina
    -6.02	      3.25	    6.42	Gary Matthews
    -7.81	      5.00	    6.06	Julio Lugo
    -6.20	      3.06	    4.35	Jose Guillen
    -6.22	      3.04	    4.16	Rick Ankiel
    -6.29	      2.97	    3.40	Jeremy Hermida
    -5.88	      2.49	    2.99	Ramon Hernandez
    -6.35	      2.91	    2.73	Willy Taveras
    -6.38	      2.89	    2.44	Josh Willingham
    -6.33	      2.71	    1.74	Freddy Sanchez
    -6.04	      2.33	    1.24	Paul Lo Duca
    -8.22	      4.52	    1.20	Kevin Kouzmanoff
    -6.51	      2.75	     .96	Reggie Willits
    -6.47	      2.57	     .17	Aaron Hill
    -6.68	      2.58	    -.95	Billy Butler
    -8.50	      4.24	   -1.84	Edwin Encarnacion
    -8.58	      4.22	   -2.38	Ryan Theriot
    -6.89	      2.37	   -3.22	Ken Griffey
    -6.64	      1.74	   -5.29	Ronny Paulino
    -8.38	      3.34	   -6.18	Kevin Youkilis
    -8.42	      3.30	   -6.55	Carlos Pena
    -6.88	      1.50	   -7.97	Kurt Suzuki
    -7.32	      1.94	   -8.02	Shane Victorino
    -7.39	      1.65	   -9.98	Orlando Hudson
    -7.10	      1.28	  -10.37	Ryan Doumit
    -7.59	      1.67	  -10.91	Bill Hall
    -7.64	      1.62	  -11.52	David DeJesus
    -8.90	      2.82	  -11.86	Jim Thome
    -7.70	      1.57	  -12.08	Joey Gathright
    -7.79	      1.48	  -13.07	Melky Cabrera
    -7.50	       .88	  -14.64	Johnny Estrada
    -7.85	      1.19	  -14.91	Mark Ellis
    -7.97	      1.29	  -15.12	Rocco Baldelli
    -9.82	      2.91	  -16.16	Akinori Iwamura
    -7.68	       .70	  -16.61	John Buck
    -8.22	      1.04	  -17.76	Andre Ethier
    -8.29	       .98	  -18.47	Corey Patterson
    -9.62	      2.10	  -19.59	Adam LaRoche
    -8.42	       .62	  -21.08	Dustin Pedroia
    -8.76	       .50	  -23.58	Jerry Owens
    -8.81	       .45	  -24.07	Mark Teahen
    -8.83	       .43	  -24.26	Garret Anderson
    -8.94	       .32	  -25.47	Chris Duncan
   -10.85	      1.95	  -26.61	Jason Bartlett
   -11.01	      1.73	  -28.56	Eric Chavez
   -11.30	      1.44	  -31.51	Scott Rolen
    -9.56	      -.29	  -31.78	Brian Giles
   -11.37	      1.43	  -31.83	Stephen Drew
   -10.85	       .87	  -32.39	Mike Jacobs
   -10.96	       .76	  -33.51	Frank Thomas
   -11.01	       .71	  -33.95	James Loney
   -11.62	      1.18	  -34.34	Yuniesky Betancourt
    -9.51	     -1.13	  -35.54	Chris Snyder
   -11.21	       .51	  -36.02	Conor Jackson
    -9.57	     -1.19	  -36.17	Gregg Zaun
   -10.01	      -.74	  -36.29	Moises Alou
   -11.84	       .90	  -36.85	Hank Blalock
   -10.04	     -1.00	  -37.66	Ron Belliard
   -11.38	       .34	  -37.66	Ryan Garko
   -10.17	      -.91	  -37.90	Wily Mo Pena
   -12.05	       .75	  -38.56	Brandon Wood
   -12.04	       .70	  -38.74	Melvin Mora
   -12.16	       .64	  -39.61	David Eckstein
   -10.44	     -1.17	  -40.48	Randy Winn
   -10.47	     -1.20	  -40.76	Coco Crisp
   -10.54	     -1.28	  -41.51	Matt Diaz
   -10.15	     -1.77	  -41.75	Dave Ross
   -10.70	     -1.43	  -42.94	Franklin Gutierrez
   -10.29	     -1.91	  -43.03	Michael Barrett
   -12.63	       .17	  -43.97	Yunel Escobar
   -10.44	     -2.06	  -44.45	Dioner Navarro
   -10.50	     -2.12	  -44.99	Gerald Laird
   -12.73	       .01	  -45.19	Mike Lowell
   -10.93	     -1.89	  -46.12	Mark DeRosa
   -11.08	     -1.81	  -46.47	Luke Scott
   -11.09	     -1.83	  -46.60	Marcus Thames
   -11.26	     -1.99	  -48.09	Xavier Nady
   -11.32	     -2.28	  -49.58	Ray Durham
   -13.28	      -.48	  -49.82	Jack Wilson
   -13.32	      -.58	  -50.47	Ty Wigginton
   -11.51	     -2.47	  -51.29	Brendan Harris
   -11.52	     -2.48	  -51.37	Asdrubal Cabrera
   -11.57	     -2.53	  -51.79	Danny Richar
   -11.71	     -2.44	  -52.05	Ryan Freel
   -11.40	     -3.03	  -52.97	Josh Bard
   -11.55	     -3.17	  -54.16	Yorvit Torrealba
   -13.27	     -1.55	  -54.78	Jason Giambi
   -13.33	     -1.61	  -55.25	Dmitri Young
   -12.15	     -2.88	  -55.75	Jason Kubel
   -12.15	     -2.88	  -55.76	Aubrey Huff
   -12.18	     -2.91	  -56.01	Nate McLouth
   -13.47	     -1.75	  -56.42	Daric Barton
   -14.08	     -1.28	  -56.52	Cristian Guzman
   -12.43	     -3.39	  -58.87	Jose Lopez
   -12.54	     -3.28	  -58.94	Jonny Gomes
   -12.64	     -3.38	  -59.74	Jacque Jones
   -12.59	     -3.55	  -60.15	Jose Vidro
   -12.76	     -3.49	  -60.61	Ryan Church
   -12.77	     -3.51	  -60.74	Jim Edmonds
   -14.14	     -2.42	  -61.65	Richie Sexson
   -14.21	     -2.49	  -62.19	Dan Ortmeier
   -13.12	     -3.86	  -63.35	Dave Roberts
   -12.76	     -4.38	  -63.67	Brian Schneider
   -13.22	     -3.95	  -64.04	Travis Buck
   -15.27	     -2.47	  -65.41	Alex Gonzalez
   -13.02	     -4.64	  -65.49	Yadier Molina
   -13.43	     -4.17	  -65.60	Carlos Gomez
   -13.45	     -4.19	  -65.71	Chris Denorfia
   -13.56	     -4.29	  -66.46	Frank Catalanotto
   -13.63	     -4.37	  -66.98	Geoff Jenkins
   -14.88	     -3.16	  -66.99	Lyle Overbay
   -14.91	     -3.19	  -67.15	Ross Gload
   -14.93	     -3.21	  -67.34	Casey Kotchman
   -15.53	     -2.79	  -67.45	Jose Bautista
   -15.64	     -2.90	  -68.21	Nomar Garciaparra
   -13.84	     -4.57	  -68.36	Adam Lind
   -13.95	     -4.68	  -69.09	Carlos Quentin
   -15.87	     -3.07	  -69.45	Bobby Crosby
   -15.87	     -3.07	  -69.45	Adam Everett
   -13.71	     -5.33	  -70.16	Jason Kendall
   -16.03	     -3.29	  -70.70	Joe Crede
   -16.12	     -3.38	  -71.26	Casey Blake
   -16.16	     -3.36	  -71.26	Tony Pena
   -14.32	     -5.28	  -72.15	Marcus Giles
   -15.74	     -4.02	  -72.51	Kevin Millar
   -14.43	     -5.39	  -72.82	Mark Grudzielanek
   -14.54	     -5.28	  -72.85	Brandon Jones
   -14.21	     -5.83	  -73.24	Rod Barajas
   -16.63	     -3.83	  -74.10	Omar Vizquel
   -16.70	     -3.97	  -74.73	Wilson Betemit
   -16.15	     -4.43	  -74.92	Ben Broussard
   -14.53	     -6.15	  -75.06	Mike Rabelo
   -14.82	     -5.78	  -75.10	Josh Barfield
   -16.20	     -4.48	  -75.23	Dan Johnson
   -15.00	     -5.74	  -75.53	Marlon Byrd
   -17.00	     -4.20	  -76.15	Brendan Ryan
   -15.12	     -5.85	  -76.17	Michael Bourn
   -15.16	     -5.90	  -76.43	Adam Jones
   -17.09	     -4.29	  -76.63	Erick Aybar
   -15.29	     -6.03	  -77.11	Cliff Floyd
   -15.40	     -6.14	  -77.69	Cody Ross
   -15.40	     -6.14	  -77.71	Milton Bradley
   -15.58	     -6.32	  -78.62	Scott Hairston
   -15.56	     -6.52	  -79.06	Adam Kennedy
   -17.76	     -5.02	  -80.22	Mike Lamb
   -16.00	     -6.73	  -80.68	Matt Stairs
   -16.07	     -6.81	  -81.04	Elijah Dukes
   -17.95	     -5.22	  -81.14	Kendry Morales
   -17.65	     -5.93	  -82.49	Scott Hatteberg
   -16.47	     -7.21	  -82.84	Jay Payton
   -18.35	     -5.61	  -82.87	Rich Aurilia
   -16.59	     -7.33	  -83.36	Gabe Gross
   -16.76	     -7.49	  -84.04	Mark Kotsay
   -18.69	     -5.95	  -84.28	Wes Helms
   -16.92	     -7.66	  -84.71	Jason Michaels
   -18.81	     -6.07	  -84.76	Jorge Cantu
   -17.00	     -7.74	  -85.01	Reed Johnson
   -16.94	     -7.90	  -85.18	Josh Wilson
   -18.97	     -6.17	  -85.25	Luis Hernandez
   -17.36	     -8.09	  -86.36	Chris Snelling
   -17.65	     -8.39	  -87.40	Jay Gibbons
   -17.98	     -8.72	  -88.49	Craig Monroe

[/code]

Edited January 15, 2008 by Mephistopheles

[Mephistopheles]

The JR Towles ranking is not just a product of James liking him. Using similar methods based off of Marcel will net you a similar answer. Using the exact method in the first post, Towles would rank has the #16 position player. Ahead of Alfonso Soriano, Carl Crawford and Jose Reyes.

 

Towles projections:

.293/12/69/73/14 - Bill James

.300/18/71/88/1 - Marcel

.250/10/42/48/9 - ZiPS

.263/10/48/50/10 - CHONE

[Transmogrified Tiger]

I'd like to place an eleventy billion dollar bet on Ryan Braun not being the best fantasy hitter next year.

[Mephistopheles]

I'd like to place an eleventy billion dollar bet on Ryan Braun not being the best fantasy hitter next year.

 

This is probably true. James' Braun projection is a lovely .326 BA , 46 HR, 121 R, 122 RBI, 20 SB.

[sneakypower]

I'm not really sure what benefit there is in your methodology in using comparative distributions for the players. Fantasy baseball is purely about stat accumulation, so it might be more prudent to value players based on how much they will contribute to your overall bottom line (based on projections in this case).

 

Assume we have sufficient data to suggest the average 10 team league will have totals of

930 R, 235 HR, 900 RBI, 125 SB, .285 BA, arbitrarily.

 

This is a simplification of what I've seen in various places. Wouldn't it make the most sense to equate everything in terms of scarcity, relational to runs for instance. So, every HR is worth 3.96 pts, a RBI virtually = 1, SBs 7.44 pts, etc. Avg is a different story, but it could still be worked out similarly. Wouldn't that give you the best indicator of true value for a player's production? How much of your team's final totals they'll accrue. That at least seemed to me to be the logical way of ranking players, but steals specialists came out with exaggerated values. I haven't had much time to think about it more, but I figured that the most sensible way to go.

[Mephistopheles]

thats stupid.

[sneakypower]

:roll:

[Mephistopheles]

dont roll your eyes at me. we both know who's right here: me, myself and well....myself.

[sneakypower]

I was being civil about things, but the fact is I'd love to be in a money league with you if you're drafting Russ Martin 4th overall.

[Mephistopheles]

I was being civil about things, but the fact is I'd love to be in a money league with you if you're drafting Russ Martin 4th overall.

 

I did not say I would draft them in this order. If people were smart and rational like me (they're not) I would have to pick in the first round if I wanted him. Since people are stupid, I'll wait and reap the benefits of getting three first round quality players in the first three rounds and proceed to be the Fantasy God that I am.

[Mark_R]

We could use this kind of trash talking in our roto money league. You might be worthy of an invite meph. Not 5 x 5 though.

[rawaction]

I'd like to place an eleventy billion dollar bet on Ryan Braun not being the best fantasy hitter next year.

 

He won't be the best on his team.

[abuck1220]

i sure hope towles is that good.

[Mephistopheles]

I don't. The Astros have a good player then. I hate the disastros.

[abuck1220]

I don't. The Astros have a good player then. I hate the disastros.

 

but i like winning at fantasy baseball, and he's on my team (along with martin).

[nilodnayr]

Meph are you going to do this with one of the projection systems that are much better than James?

[Mephistopheles]

Yes, once I have them. PECOTA isn't out. All of ZiPS isn't out. I have them done for Chone and Marcel.

[vance_the_cubs_fan]

Meph when you finish your rankings with the other projection systems, care to send it to me in spreadsheet form?