While we're waiting for the Roberts deal

[rawaction]

who cares if leadoff isn't a position. what's your point? roberts is a big upgrade to soriano at leadoff so that makes the team better w/ an extra bat in the middle & a 40 pt OBP lift to start the game. for those saying that the leadoff hitter only leads off the game...many times the pitcher ends up making the last out so i'd guess the leadoff hitter actually starts an inning on average 2-2.5 times/game. soriano has had many lower leg injuries including last year & he makes very poor judgements in running the bases. I think our hitting lineup w/ roberts & fuko is greatly improved. if we take another step to get figgins for cf then it takes yet another step w/ OBP-type players.

 

And you guessed wrong.

 

Let's take Jimmy Rollins as an example, since he was in the NL and served as the Phillies lead-off hitter most of the season. Rollins had 778 plate appearances last season, which not only led the majors in 2007 but also established a single-season major league record. He had 675 of them batting in the first spot in the order. In 153 games played, he led off an inning a total of 287 times, which comes out to 1.88 times per game.

 

What if you take out the 100 PAs he didn't hit 1st? I'd imagine that would put that number closer to 2, which would make his statement on base.

[fromthestretch]

who cares if leadoff isn't a position. what's your point? roberts is a big upgrade to soriano at leadoff so that makes the team better w/ an extra bat in the middle & a 40 pt OBP lift to start the game. for those saying that the leadoff hitter only leads off the game...many times the pitcher ends up making the last out so i'd guess the leadoff hitter actually starts an inning on average 2-2.5 times/game. soriano has had many lower leg injuries including last year & he makes very poor judgements in running the bases. I think our hitting lineup w/ roberts & fuko is greatly improved. if we take another step to get figgins for cf then it takes yet another step w/ OBP-type players.

 

And you guessed wrong.

 

Let's take Jimmy Rollins as an example, since he was in the NL and served as the Phillies lead-off hitter most of the season. Rollins had 778 plate appearances last season, which not only led the majors in 2007 but also established a single-season major league record. He had 675 of them batting in the first spot in the order. In 153 games played, he led off an inning a total of 287 times, which comes out to 1.88 times per game.

 

What if you take out the 100 PAs he didn't hit 1st? I'd imagine that would put that number closer to 2, which would make his statement on base.

 

I'd probably have to go game-by-game to do that, and well, I'm lazy. But we could look at Soriano's numbers. He had a larger percentage of his at-bats as the first hitter in the lineup.

 

He had 617 plate appearances, with 577 coming in the first spot in the order. He led off an inning 233 times in 135 games, which is 1.73 times per game.

[MSG T]

who cares if leadoff isn't a position. what's your point? roberts is a big upgrade to soriano at leadoff so that makes the team better w/ an extra bat in the middle & a 40 pt OBP lift to start the game. for those saying that the leadoff hitter only leads off the game...many times the pitcher ends up making the last out so i'd guess the leadoff hitter actually starts an inning on average 2-2.5 times/game. soriano has had many lower leg injuries including last year & he makes very poor judgements in running the bases. I think our hitting lineup w/ roberts & fuko is greatly improved. if we take another step to get figgins for cf then it takes yet another step w/ OBP-type players.

 

And you guessed wrong.

 

Let's take Jimmy Rollins as an example, since he was in the NL and served as the Phillies lead-off hitter most of the season. Rollins had 778 plate appearances last season, which not only led the majors in 2007 but also established a single-season major league record. He had 675 of them batting in the first spot in the order. In 153 games played, he led off an inning a total of 287 times, which comes out to 1.88 times per game.

 

What if you take out the 100 PAs he didn't hit 1st? I'd imagine that would put that number closer to 2, which would make his statement on base.

 

Yes, but how many of those 100 PA's( which he was 2nd, 3rd, 4th etc in the order) did he still lead off an inning other than the first. Although the percentage wouldn't be anywhere near as high, there's got to be some.

 

Besides, I think the point was that he set a record for PA's, was a leadoff hitter the vast majority of the season and still didn't lead off an inning 2x's a game on average.

 

For comparison, if ESPNs numbers are right, Soriano lead off an inning 1.71 times per game ( 231 leadoff PA's/135 games).

[MSG T]

who cares if leadoff isn't a position. what's your point? roberts is a big upgrade to soriano at leadoff so that makes the team better w/ an extra bat in the middle & a 40 pt OBP lift to start the game. for those saying that the leadoff hitter only leads off the game...many times the pitcher ends up making the last out so i'd guess the leadoff hitter actually starts an inning on average 2-2.5 times/game. soriano has had many lower leg injuries including last year & he makes very poor judgements in running the bases. I think our hitting lineup w/ roberts & fuko is greatly improved. if we take another step to get figgins for cf then it takes yet another step w/ OBP-type players.

 

And you guessed wrong.

 

Let's take Jimmy Rollins as an example, since he was in the NL and served as the Phillies lead-off hitter most of the season. Rollins had 778 plate appearances last season, which not only led the majors in 2007 but also established a single-season major league record. He had 675 of them batting in the first spot in the order. In 153 games played, he led off an inning a total of 287 times, which comes out to 1.88 times per game.

 

What if you take out the 100 PAs he didn't hit 1st? I'd imagine that would put that number closer to 2, which would make his statement on base.

 

I'd probably have to go game-by-game to do that, and well, I'm lazy. But we could look at Soriano's numbers. He had a larger percentage of his at-bats as the first hitter in the lineup.

 

He had 617 plate appearances, with 577 coming in the first spot in the order. He led off an inning 233 times in 135 games, which is 1.73 times per game.

 

Oops, I missed 2 PA's.

[wilk]

Rollins had 276 PA leading off an inning. 139 to leadoff the 1st and 137 later in the game. So, 1.99/game (or 0.99 "extra" times).

[fromthestretch]

By the way, using Baseball Musing's lineup analysis tool, I tried the following two lineups to see which one was expected to score more runs. (There are several different combinations, but I chose these two).

 

Lineup #1

Soriano

Roberts

Lee

Ramirez

Fukudome

Soto

Pie

Theriot

Pitcher

 

Lineup #2

Roberts

Fukudome

Lee

Ramirez

Soriano

Soto

Pie

Theriot

Pitcher

 

For Roberts, Lee, Ramirez, Soriano, and Theriot, I used their 2007 stats. For the others, I used their 2008 ZiPS projections, because they were easy to find (thanks, meph) and we don't have a full MLB season of stats for them.

 

Lineup #1 averaged 5.079 runs/game, while lineup #2 was 5.139 runs/game. It's a difference of .06 runs/game. While I'm all for putting the high OBP guys in front of the high SLG guys to maximize scoring opportunities, it's just not that much of a difference.

[fromthestretch]

Rollins had 276 PA leading off an inning. 139 to leadoff the 1st and 137 later in the game. So, 1.99/game (or 0.99 "extra" times).

 

According to baseball reference, it was 287 plate appearances leading off an inning. You are right though that 139 were leading off the first inning. He started 162 games for them. 287/162 = 1.77. Again, tough to break out how many of the other 148 times he led off an inning were in games he batted somewhere other than first in the lineup.

 

ETA: In my post earlier in the thread, I only calculated it to 153 games instead of 162 for Rollins. While he played in 162, there were only 153 games in which he led off an inning.

[wilk]

Rollins had 276 PA leading off an inning. 139 to leadoff the 1st and 137 later in the game. So, 1.99/game (or 0.99 "extra" times).

 

According to baseball reference, it was 287 plate appearances leading off an inning. You are right though that 139 were leading off the first inning. He started 162 games for them. 287/162 = 1.77. Again, tough to break out how many of the other 148 times he led off an inning were in games he batted somewhere other than first in the lineup.

 

ETA: In my post earlier in the thread, I only calculated it to 153 games instead of 162 for Rollins. While he played in 162, there were only 153 games in which he led off an inning.

 

I have 276. And he didn't start 162 games leading off so you can't use that. 276 PA leading off an inning in 139 games when he was the leadoff hitter = 1.99. As for Soriano, he was 232 PA (125 in 1st, 107 later); or 1.86.

[fromthestretch]

Rollins had 276 PA leading off an inning. 139 to leadoff the 1st and 137 later in the game. So, 1.99/game (or 0.99 "extra" times).

 

According to baseball reference, it was 287 plate appearances leading off an inning. You are right though that 139 were leading off the first inning. He started 162 games for them. 287/162 = 1.77. Again, tough to break out how many of the other 148 times he led off an inning were in games he batted somewhere other than first in the lineup.

 

ETA: In my post earlier in the thread, I only calculated it to 153 games instead of 162 for Rollins. While he played in 162, there were only 153 games in which he led off an inning.

 

I have 276. And he didn't start 162 games leading off so you can't use that. 276 PA leading off an inning in 139 games when he was the leadoff hitter = 1.99. As for Soriano, he was 232 PA (125 in 1st, 107 later); or 1.86.

 

I was using his splits page on B-R. I just saw that PI was free on there for now, so I just used that. I see where you're getting your numbers from now. That is more accurate.

 

If you run it for Roberts, who didn't have pitchers constantly making outs ahead of him, he had 275 plate appearances in 151 games, for an average of 1.82.

[wrigley23]

David, why do you have to be such a jerk? Everyone knows you are not in favor or Roberts or for taking Soriano out of the leadoff spot. I have news for you....Piniella wants it to happen & that's what matters so you better get used to it. This is a message board for opinoins. Do you really get off on taking parts of opinions & ridiculing them? Is there an award for this that I'm not aware of?

[inari]

David, why do you have to be such a jerk? Everyone knows you are not in favor or Roberts or for taking Soriano out of the leadoff spot. I have news for you....Piniella wants it to happen & that's what matters so you better get used to it. This is a message board for opinoins. Do you really get off on taking parts of opinions & ridiculing them? Is there an award for this that I'm not aware of?

 

Is it just me, or are those sentences just absurdly contradictory?

[wrigley23]

i haven't ridiculed his opinion.

[David]

David, why do you have to be such a jerk? Everyone knows you are not in favor or Roberts or for taking Soriano out of the leadoff spot. I have news for you....Piniella wants it to happen & that's what matters so you better get used to it. This is a message board for opinoins. Do you really get off on taking parts of opinions & ridiculing them? Is there an award for this that I'm not aware of?

 

I have no idea what you are talking about.

 

I have been incredibly pro-Roberts. One of the more pro-Roberts people on this board. I'm also all for moving Soriano into the middle of the order.

[David]

It has nothing to do with him being a "real leadoff hitter" or anything like that, though. I want them to get him because I think he's a better bet to put up the production we're looking for at 2B than DeRosa.

[inari]

i haven't ridiculed his opinion.

 

But you have, in essence, said that all this discussion is worthless because Lou's the one making the decisions.

[Mephistopheles]

who cares? minimal differences.

[Rob]

who cares if leadoff isn't a position. what's your point? roberts is a big upgrade to soriano at leadoff [...]

 

No, he really isn't. All-in-all, they have comparable value as hitters, no matter where they are in the order. Besides, Roberts can't be an upgrade over Soriano if he isn't replacing him; he's replacing DeRosa.

 

I fully realise that this is nothing more than a semantic argument. But the issue is simply that Brian Roberts is not valuable because he can hit at the top of the order and steal a few bases. Brian Roberts is valuable for one reason, and one reason alone. He gets on base. It doesn't matter if he's batting first or eighth; he is valuable soley for his ability to get on base.

 

Agreed, I would want Roberts batting near the top of the order in most cases. But if the choice is to mess with Soriano, who may very well convince himself that he can't hit down in the order... or just leave him there and bat Roberts 2nd... it's really not even a choice.

[wilk]

If you run it for Roberts, who didn't have pitchers constantly making outs ahead of him, he had 275 plate appearances in 151 games, for an average of 1.82.

Which is actually relatively low... Since we're throwing out random names, the average PA leading off an inning for the #1 hitter per game is 1.92. The Giants were the highest with 2.09 and the Angels lowest with 1.79. But once the first 3 innings are out of the way, the odds of leading off an inning again are not really any better than any other spot and it's obviously team/lineup dependent--but I guess that's not really the point.

[sneakypower]

This isn't true, but w/e. Keep being ignorant and oblivious to the truth if you want.

 

Truth and your opinion are two vastly different things. Truth isn't often wrong.

[David]

This isn't true, but w/e. Keep being ignorant and oblivious to the truth if you want.

 

Truth and your opinion are two vastly different things. Truth isn't often wrong.

 

 

Many here probably hate to admit it, but neither is he.

 

And, in this case, he's definitely not.

[sneakypower]

I don't see the love for Derosa.

 

A three year contract worth $13 million, but we've got a similar player that costs $300,000 in Ryan Theriot.

[jersey cubs fan]

I don't see the love for Derosa.

 

A three year contract worth $13 million, but we've got a similar player that costs $300,000 in Ryan Theriot.

 

Perhaps I'm missing some sarcasm, but, um, are you comparing Derosa to Theriot?

[inari]

I don't see the love for Derosa.

 

A three year contract worth $13 million, but we've got a similar player that costs $300,000 in Ryan Theriot.

 

You can't be serious. If Theriot was as good as DeRosa we'd have the best lineup in the NL. As it is, Theriot is one of baseball's worst regulars. Theriot's similar to DeRosa only in that they're both capable of playing second base.

[sneakypower]

I don't see the love for Derosa.

 

A three year contract worth $13 million, but we've got a similar player that costs $300,000 in Ryan Theriot.

 

You can't be serious. If Theriot was as good as DeRosa we'd have the best lineup in the NL. As it is, Theriot is one of baseball's worst regulars. Theriot's similar to DeRosa only in that they're both capable of playing second base.

 

Oh, my faux pas. I forgot to put quotes around the second sentence, that I plagiarized.