Nick Swisher to the White Sox

[imb]

There's also the thing about how Bedard is good, too.

[Backtobanks]

i don't see how any of their veterans would have brought a cornerstone prospect.

 

Buerhle could have gotten them 2-3 cornerstone prospects alone.

 

that's insane. or you and i have different definitions of "cornerstone."

 

May I suggest you look at some of the offers the Orioles are considering for Bedard and tell me the White Sox couldn't get the same offer (or better) for Buerhle.

 

why would they get a better offer for buerhle?

 

i haven't seen any offers for bedard that include 2-3 cornerstone prospects. feel free to throw a few at me.

 

The rumors that I have seen have mentioned these names:

Seattle: Adam Jones, Jeff Clement, Wladamir Balentin, Young Chin-Chen,Tillman, Sherrill

Cincinati: Joey Votto, Homer Bailey, Johnny Cueto

Dodgers: Kemp, Broxton, Kershaw, Meloan,Hu, LaRoche, McDonald

Mets: Gomez, Heilman, Humber

 

I think you can find a package there that would include 2-3 cornerstone prospects.

Buerhle is a better pitcher than Bedard and would probably bring in a few more interested teams.

[abuck1220]

i guess we'll just have to agree to disagree then. i'd rather have bedard over buehrle every day of the week.

 

and if the dodgers give up that much for bedard, i'll eat poop.

[imb]

i don't see how any of their veterans would have brought a cornerstone prospect.

 

Buerhle could have gotten them 2-3 cornerstone prospects alone.

 

that's insane. or you and i have different definitions of "cornerstone."

 

May I suggest you look at some of the offers the Orioles are considering for Bedard and tell me the White Sox couldn't get the same offer (or better) for Buerhle.

 

why would they get a better offer for buerhle?

 

i haven't seen any offers for bedard that include 2-3 cornerstone prospects. feel free to throw a few at me.

 

The rumors that I have seen have mentioned these names:

Seattle: Adam Jones, Jeff Clement, Wladamir Balentin, Young Chin-Chen,Tillman, Sherrill

Cincinati: Joey Votto, Homer Bailey, Johnny Cueto

Dodgers: Kemp, Broxton, Kershaw, Meloan,Hu, LaRoche, McDonald

Mets: Gomez, Heilman, Humber

 

I think you can find a package there that would include 2-3 cornerstone prospects.

Buerhle is a better pitcher than Bedard and would probably bring in a few more interested teams.

 

Did you get into Yeti's stash again?

[RammyFanny]

i don't see how any of their veterans would have brought a cornerstone prospect.

 

Buerhle could have gotten them 2-3 cornerstone prospects alone.

 

that's insane. or you and i have different definitions of "cornerstone."

 

May I suggest you look at some of the offers the Orioles are considering for Bedard and tell me the White Sox couldn't get the same offer (or better) for Buerhle.

 

why would they get a better offer for buerhle?

 

i haven't seen any offers for bedard that include 2-3 cornerstone prospects. feel free to throw a few at me.

 

The rumors that I have seen have mentioned these names:

Seattle: Adam Jones, Jeff Clement, Wladamir Balentin, Young Chin-Chen,Tillman, Sherrill

Cincinati: Joey Votto, Homer Bailey, Johnny Cueto

Dodgers: Kemp, Broxton, Kershaw, Meloan,Hu, LaRoche, McDonald

Mets: Gomez, Heilman, Humber

 

I think you can find a package there that would include 2-3 cornerstone prospects.

Buerhle is a better pitcher than Bedard and would probably bring in a few more interested teams.

I've been following Orioles related rumors like crazy, and while some of those names are correct, those combinations aren't.

 

The Seattle offer for Bedard is Jones,Clement, Chen OR Tillman. Baltimore is holding out for Jones,Clement, Morrow, which Seattle simply will not do. Wlad's name hasn't even been mentioned.

 

Cinci has backed off. However, a couple of weeks ago it seemed like the deal was Bailey, Votto, and some lesser prospects (with it seeming like the Orioles wanting a third good prospect). One of the O's insiders said that the Reds offer was pretty stingy though, so take that FWIW.

 

Whatever you were hearing about the Dodgers is insane. The reported offer was Kershaw, Hu, and a third prospect (possibly a Meloan or McDonald but that wasn't clear). After they got Kuroda everything has been VERY quiet on their front. Orioles seemed to insist on Kemp.

 

And the Mets haven't even been rumored.

 

After typing all of this, I realized you said these were only names being discussed (and not actual combinations), but i'm still posting this :wink:

[badnews]

I doubt Billy Beane much cares what type of pitcher BA thinks a guy will be.

 

Maybe he should care, they've been right more often than he has the last few years.

 

On another note, remember when people said Billy Beane wouldn't like a guy like Pie because of his walks, and the biggest prospect he just traded Haren for was a guy with the same problems as Pie?

 

I also think it's a mistake to assume to #3 starters out of those guys. De Los Santos has pitched 1 year in the minors. Remember Justin Jones back when he was at the level De Los Santos pitched at? He was a 10+ K/9 lefty with a 2.28 ERA. Things can and do happen.

 

This board is flat out disingenuous a lot. Remember when people were talking up getting Carl Crawford, and they said "Oh, he's going to get better and hit 30 home runs and so forth" but Nick Swisher, who just turned 27 like a month ago, has no capacity to get better, moving out of Oakland and into a better lineup? A switch hitter who just turned 27 and has hit 35 home runs and taken 100 walks in a season in his career is just going to be .836 OPS guy you can get the same production from easily somewhere else?

 

It wouldn't surprise me if Swisher starts putting up Teixeira-esque numbers. And this isn't a rental, he's cheap seemingly forever. It's almost ridiculous how long he's locked up for a bargain price. In 2010 Shawn Green type players will probably make $16 million a year, how will Swisher look then?

 

Any disparaging of this trade from the White Sox side looks like nonsense to me. Speaking of Teixeira, I thought Swisher would get a Teixeira-like deal because he's so cheap for so long. The White Sox actually got the A's to buy into Ryan Sweeney? Fabulous for them. Salaries are rising so much Michael Wuertz could be making more money than Swisher in 2010. If I had to pick between Nick Swisher, Alex Rios, and Brad Hawpe, I'd rather have Swisher. Kenny Williams got a steal.

 

The sad thing is, if the Cubs do get Brian Roberts it'll probably be for a near equivalent package and everyone on the board will be kissing ass about it. The spin here is too much sometimes. Who even cares if the White Sox can't contend? They can spin him off for a way better package in two years, I imagine.

[RynoRules]

Let's be clear: I don't think too many folks here believe Beane got the better end of this deal. The reason some of us are critical of Williams is that getting Swisher won't help them win in the short-term. This team simply isn't as good as Cleveland or Detroit overall. Their rotation is a mess and their best position players / DH are clearly on the downsides of their careers.

[badnews]

Let's be clear: I don't think too many folks here believe Beane got the better end of this deal. The reason some of us are critical of Williams is that getting Swisher won't help them win in the short-term.

 

Then I ask those people: what is to stop Williams from turning around and flipping Swisher for a better package in two years if that's the case?

 

He's under contract for so long these arguments don't hold water.

[Backtobanks]

Let's be clear: I don't think too many folks here believe Beane got the better end of this deal. The reason some of us are critical of Williams is that getting Swisher won't help them win in the short-term.

 

Then I ask those people: what is to stop Williams from turning around and flipping Swisher for a better package in two years if that's the case?

 

He's under contract for so long these arguments don't hold water.

 

Williams can flip Swisher in 2 years for a better package, but in the meantime the Sox will finish 3rd or 4th with Swisher. In 2 years, the package they will have to get for Swisher will have to replace Thome, Dye, Vasquez, Cabrera, and an aging Konerko. As Phil Rogers (Yuch!) pointed out, the Swisher deal is great if you are contending in 2008 or you have a deep minor league system. Neither of those applies to the White Sox.

[Backtobanks]

i guess we'll just have to agree to disagree then. i'd rather have bedard over buehrle every day of the week.

 

and if the dodgers give up that much for bedard, i'll eat poop.

 

Those aren't the packages offered for Bedard, but some of the names mentioned in different packages offered for Bedard.

As for Bedard being better than Buerhle, the statistics are reasonably close, but the most telling statistic is innings pitched. Buerhle averages 70 more innings pitched per season. Since both pitchers are the aces of their teams, having your best pitcher on the mound for an extra 70 innings a season is significant. In other words, Buerhle pitches 43% more innings per season.

[CubColtPacer]

i guess we'll just have to agree to disagree then. i'd rather have bedard over buehrle every day of the week.

 

and if the dodgers give up that much for bedard, i'll eat poop.

 

Those aren't the packages offered for Bedard, but some of the names mentioned in different packages offered for Bedard.

As for Bedard being better than Buerhle, the statistics are reasonably close, but the most telling statistic is innings pitched. Buerhle averages 70 more innings pitched per season. Since both pitchers are the aces of their teams, having your best pitcher on the mound for an extra 70 innings a season is significant. In other words, Buerhle pitches 43% more innings per season.

 

General managers give a ton more weight to the last season or two when looking at trades than they do career marks. In those two years, Buerhle has only pitched 26 more innings combined than Bedard has. Their statistics are not similar at all if you look at the last year, or the last two years combined (any more than that and Bedard was still trying to break into the league).

Plus, Bedard is coming off his career year right now. His value might not be that much higher than Beurhle's on a normal basis, but it's artificially higher right now coming off his career year. Finally, the huge strikeout total this year for Bedard adds value as GM's love high K totals.

 

Some team will overpay for Bedard this offseason coming off of his career year. His value should be higher than Buerhle's (Buerhle's inconsistency costs him, and Bedard should slide from his career year but not put up any years even close to Buerhle's 2006), but right now it's much, much higher.

[Backtobanks]

i guess we'll just have to agree to disagree then. i'd rather have bedard over buehrle every day of the week.

 

and if the dodgers give up that much for bedard, i'll eat poop.

 

Those aren't the packages offered for Bedard, but some of the names mentioned in different packages offered for Bedard.

As for Bedard being better than Buerhle, the statistics are reasonably close, but the most telling statistic is innings pitched. Buerhle averages 70 more innings pitched per season. Since both pitchers are the aces of their teams, having your best pitcher on the mound for an extra 70 innings a season is significant. In other words, Buerhle pitches 43% more innings per season.

 

General managers give a ton more weight to the last season or two when looking at trades than they do career marks. In those two years, Buerhle has only pitched 26 more innings combined than Bedard has. Their statistics are not similar at all if you look at the last year, or the last two years combined (any more than that and Bedard was still trying to break into the league).

Plus, Bedard is coming off his career year right now. His value might not be that much higher than Beurhle's on a normal basis, but it's artificially higher right now coming off his career year. Finally, the huge strikeout total this year for Bedard adds value as GM's love high K totals.

 

Some team will overpay for Bedard this offseason coming off of his career year. His value should be higher than Buerhle's (Buerhle's inconsistency costs him, and Bedard should slide from his career year but not put up any years even close to Buerhle's 2006), but right now it's much, much higher.

 

I guess we'll never know since Williams gave Buerhle a NTC, but I still think if Buerhle's name was out there, you would see the phone lines light up with offers. When you see the offers that many GMs make

for a mediocre "innings eater", I can only imagine what the offers would be for a #1 starter that averages 230 innings per year.

[RynoRules]

Let's be clear: I don't think too many folks here believe Beane got the better end of this deal. The reason some of us are critical of Williams is that getting Swisher won't help them win in the short-term.

 

Then I ask those people: what is to stop Williams from turning around and flipping Swisher for a better package in two years if that's the case?

 

He's under contract for so long these arguments don't hold water.

 

Nothing I guess, but please explain how that helps the White Sox become a better team than Cleveland (will be good for years to come) and Detroit (will be on a good run for probably 3 years).

[nilodnayr]

Let's be clear: I don't think too many folks here believe Beane got the better end of this deal. The reason some of us are critical of Williams is that getting Swisher won't help them win in the short-term.

 

Then I ask those people: what is to stop Williams from turning around and flipping Swisher for a better package in two years if that's the case?

 

He's under contract for so long these arguments don't hold water.

 

Williams can flip Swisher in 2 years for a better package, but in the meantime the Sox will finish 3rd or 4th with Swisher. In 2 years, the package they will have to get for Swisher will have to replace Thome, Dye, Vasquez, Cabrera, and an aging Konerko. As Phil Rogers (Yuch!) pointed out, the Swisher deal is great if you are contending in 2008 or you have a deep minor league system. Neither of those applies to the White Sox.

 

In the meantime the Sox would not have made the playoffs with De Los Santos, Sweeney, and Gio, so whats the point of that arguement? In 2 years will they be better off with those guys than Swisher? Will they be able to trade those guys to replace their current players (although, Dye, Vazquez, Konerko are all under contract, in 2 years, they'll be well on their decline by then)?

 

Swisher is a great deal because hes fills both of their needs. Hes a win now type guy (which they need to show to their owner/players/fans) and hes a win later type guy because hes young(ish) and under contract through 11 with a club option for 12. Plus its a good value deal, IMO.

 

Criticize KW for not trading Dye, criticize KW for not trading Buehrle, criticize KW for not trading Garland for prospects, and the many other guys that he could have used to rebuild. Those are all valid, but this trade has NOTHING to do with any of that.

[RynoRules]

Let's be clear: I don't think too many folks here believe Beane got the better end of this deal. The reason some of us are critical of Williams is that getting Swisher won't help them win in the short-term.

 

Then I ask those people: what is to stop Williams from turning around and flipping Swisher for a better package in two years if that's the case?

 

He's under contract for so long these arguments don't hold water.

 

Williams can flip Swisher in 2 years for a better package, but in the meantime the Sox will finish 3rd or 4th with Swisher. In 2 years, the package they will have to get for Swisher will have to replace Thome, Dye, Vasquez, Cabrera, and an aging Konerko. As Phil Rogers (Yuch!) pointed out, the Swisher deal is great if you are contending in 2008 or you have a deep minor league system. Neither of those applies to the White Sox.

 

In the meantime the Sox would not have made the playoffs with De Los Santos, Sweeney, and Gio, so whats the point of that arguement? In 2 years will they be better off with those guys than Swisher? Will they be able to trade those guys to replace their current players (although, Dye, Vazquez, Konerko are all under contract, in 2 years, they'll be well on their decline by then)?

 

Swisher is a great deal because hes fills both of their needs. Hes a win now type guy (which they need to show to their owner/players/fans) and hes a win later type guy because hes young(ish) and under contract through 11 with a club option for 12. Plus its a good value deal, IMO.

 

Criticize KW for not trading Dye, criticize KW for not trading Buehrle, criticize KW for not trading Garland for prospects, and the many other guys that he could have used to rebuild. Those are all valid, but this trade has NOTHING to do with any of that.

 

I do not agree. He has now completely cleared his system of all value, and his team is still below par. He would need to continue to add established pitchers in order to get up into the Red Sox, Yankees, Tigers and Indians' class. He can't, so now they will wollow in the middle division with no help on the horizon.

 

Had he kept his prospects he could have at least torn the house down and gone young rather than making a futile attempt to be competitive.

[Guest]

Yeah that's a pretty huge limb assuming Gonzalez and De Los Santos as #3 pitchers. It's dangerous to assume them as viable major leaguers at all.

 

The one thing Oakland does have to help explain things is that their corners were pretty full with Cust, Barton, and Buck already on the team.

 

And Dan Johnson though he's dropped off after winning the AAA MVP 3 years ago.

[badnews]

These arguments are frustratingly short-sighted to me. People are essentially saying "If you're not going to contend this year, there's no point in improving the team." One post said "He's cleared the farm system of value." So what? Before the Nick Swisher trade, the farm system was 29th in baseball anyway. Do they get a trophy for holding on to those guys or something?

 

Ryan Sweeney was pretty much declared done as a prospect this season. De Los Santos had one good season at the lower levels in the minors. Gonzalez is a nice pitching prospect. But I ask yet again, since when do you get a guy like Swisher for that cheap? Swisher is worth more than Brad Hawpe or Alex Rios with his contract, did you think you could get a guy like either?

 

How does keeping Gio Gonzalez and De Los Santos help the White Sox more than Swisher? They don't.

 

The point people are missing: This trade would've made sense for virtually any team in baseball. For the Marlins, for the Royals, well, maybe not the Devil Rays, but it's good value. Any time Swisher's name was brought up in the past, the idea was "He'll cost way too much." There was a Swisher topic earlier where it was said "Swisher would cost the Cubs Hill, Marmol, and another prospect." Oh, we've dropped a long way from that! This deal isn't even crazy different from what the Phillies gave up for Freddy Garcia.

 

And that's a joke considering Swisher's salary the next few years:

 

2008: 3.5 m

2009: 5.3 m

2010: 6.75 m

2011: 9 m

2012: option: 10.5m or 1m buyout

 

At the end of the 2012 season he'll be 31. For a 35 home run, 100 walk good defensive outfielder. Yeah, who gives a crap about Gio Gonzalez then? In 2010 6th inning pitchers will be making more than Nick Swisher does. And getting out of that park in Oakland and into a better lineup should do nothing but help, not hurt.

 

I just can't believe anyone is arguing against this, plus I'm angry because the Cubs should've been in this deal. Look at how much he's making over the next five years. You have got to be kidding me. That contract ranks up there with David Wright and Tim Wakefield. Heck, it could be better. That's just crazy.

 

I consider Ryan Sweeney worthless, so they essentially gave up a guy with good numbers but just one year and a good prospect in Gonzalez. The Braves would've been MUCH smarter to make this trade than the Teixeira one. For a guy who can probably put up an .850 OPS every year, is in his prime years, and is making dirt cheap money? And people think the White Sox should be wringing their hands over losing Gonzalez? Ugh.

 

Meanwhile, people turn cartwheels over a proposed Sean Marshall, Sean Gallagher, and Ronny Cedeno for Brian Roberts trade. Vomit.

 

Think back on this moment at the 2008 trade deadline. The Cubs blew it here. Absolutely blew it if they go ahead with getting Roberts. Nobody seems to realize this so I'll bold it. They'll probably end up paying as much for two years of Brian Roberts as the White Sox do for five years of Swisher, a far superior player.

[RynoRules]

These arguments are frustratingly short-sighted to me. People are essentially saying "If you're not going to contend this year, there's no point in improving the team." One post said "He's cleared the farm system of value." So what? Before the Nick Swisher trade, the farm system was 29th in baseball anyway. Do they get a trophy for holding on to those guys or something?

 

Nope, and they won't get a trophy for finishing with 79 wins either.

 

How does keeping Gio Gonzalez and De Los Santos help the White Sox more than Swisher? They don't.

 

Do we really have to re-explain every argument to you?

 

The point people are missing: This trade would've made sense for virtually any team in baseball. For the Marlins, for the Royals, well, maybe not the Devil Rays, but it's good value. Any time Swisher's name was brought up in the past, the idea was "He'll cost way too much." There was a Swisher topic earlier where it was said "Swisher would cost the Cubs Hill, Marmol, and another prospect." Oh, we've dropped a long way from that! This deal isn't even crazy different from what the Phillies gave up for Freddy Garcia.

 

You are comparing the Swisher trade to the Garcia trade, which occurred a year ago under completely different circumstances. This is the first offseason in recent memory when the trade mkt holds far more value that the FA mkt.

 

Meanwhile, people turn cartwheels over a proposed Sean Marshall, Sean Gallagher, and Ronny Cedeno for Brian Roberts trade. Vomit.

 

Your hyperbole aside, I have not seen too many people overly excited about Roberts or what we mau have to give up to get him.

 

Think back on this moment at the 2008 trade deadline. The Cubs blew it here. Absolutely blew it if they go ahead with getting Roberts. Nobody seems to realize this so I'll bold it. They'll probably end up paying as much for two years of Brian Roberts as the White Sox do for five years of Swisher, a far superior player.

 

You may be on to something here - I didn't realize Swisher could play 2B!

[jersey cubs fan]

I don't get the complaints about the move for the White Sox.

 

Sure, it doesn't much affect their playoffs chances in 2008, but it's not solely a 2008 story. I'd be very happy to turn 3 B prospects into a solid young major leaguer who is under team control at a fair price for several years.

[nilodnayr]

Let's be clear: I don't think too many folks here believe Beane got the better end of this deal. The reason some of us are critical of Williams is that getting Swisher won't help them win in the short-term.

 

Then I ask those people: what is to stop Williams from turning around and flipping Swisher for a better package in two years if that's the case?

 

He's under contract for so long these arguments don't hold water.

 

Williams can flip Swisher in 2 years for a better package, but in the meantime the Sox will finish 3rd or 4th with Swisher. In 2 years, the package they will have to get for Swisher will have to replace Thome, Dye, Vasquez, Cabrera, and an aging Konerko. As Phil Rogers (Yuch!) pointed out, the Swisher deal is great if you are contending in 2008 or you have a deep minor league system. Neither of those applies to the White Sox.

 

In the meantime the Sox would not have made the playoffs with De Los Santos, Sweeney, and Gio, so whats the point of that arguement? In 2 years will they be better off with those guys than Swisher? Will they be able to trade those guys to replace their current players (although, Dye, Vazquez, Konerko are all under contract, in 2 years, they'll be well on their decline by then)?

 

Swisher is a great deal because hes fills both of their needs. Hes a win now type guy (which they need to show to their owner/players/fans) and hes a win later type guy because hes young(ish) and under contract through 11 with a club option for 12. Plus its a good value deal, IMO.

 

Criticize KW for not trading Dye, criticize KW for not trading Buehrle, criticize KW for not trading Garland for prospects, and the many other guys that he could have used to rebuild. Those are all valid, but this trade has NOTHING to do with any of that.

 

I do not agree. He has now completely cleared his system of all value, and his team is still below par. He would need to continue to add established pitchers in order to get up into the Red Sox, Yankees, Tigers and Indians' class. He can't, so now they will wollow in the middle division with no help on the horizon.

 

Had he kept his prospects he could have at least torn the house down and gone young rather than making a futile attempt to be competitive.

 

You do realize that he also added value to the organization in the form of Nick Swisher, right? Your argument again seems to stem from all other deals/non-deals that KW did/didn't do as opposed to this particular deal. Their minors were crap before the deal and its bigger crap after the deal, but also, their CF for the next 5 years upgrades from Jerry Owens to Nick Swisher.

 

Swisher doesn't save the system, but Gio, De Lost Santos, and Sweeney were not going to save the system by themselves either. I don't see how thats such a hard point to understand.

[Backtobanks]

I don't get the complaints about the move for the White Sox.

 

Sure, it doesn't much affect their playoffs chances in 2008, but it's not solely a 2008 story. I'd be very happy to turn 3 B prospects into a solid young major leaguer who is under team control at a fair price for several years.

 

Don't kid yourself about "3 B prospects". They were 3 of the top 8 in the Sox farm system.

[jersey cubs fan]

I don't get the complaints about the move for the White Sox.

 

Sure, it doesn't much affect their playoffs chances in 2008, but it's not solely a 2008 story. I'd be very happy to turn 3 B prospects into a solid young major leaguer who is under team control at a fair price for several years.

 

Don't kid yourself about "3 B prospects". They were 3 of the top 8 in the Sox farm system.

 

Being 3 of of the best in a bad bunch doesn't make them blue chippers.

[BigbadB]

Trading for Swisher doesn't hurt the White Sox in the least bit, unless he suffers some significant or lingering injury.

 

The Sox could turn around and peddle Swisher for a better package of players than the one's the gave up later on if they want.

[Backtobanks]

I don't get the complaints about the move for the White Sox.

 

Sure, it doesn't much affect their playoffs chances in 2008, but it's not solely a 2008 story. I'd be very happy to turn 3 B prospects into a solid young major leaguer who is under team control at a fair price for several years.

 

Don't kid yourself about "3 B prospects". They were 3 of the top 8 in the Sox farm system.

 

Being 3 of of the best in a bad bunch doesn't make them blue chippers.

 

And a .251 hitter isn't ARod either. Swisher is a good acquisition by the White Sox with very good power numbers for a CF. If he moves to LF, RF, or 1B, his numbers are okay but not great. As you (and others) have pointed out, he is under team control at a fair price for several years which makes this a good deal.

[jersey cubs fan]

I don't get the complaints about the move for the White Sox.

 

Sure, it doesn't much affect their playoffs chances in 2008, but it's not solely a 2008 story. I'd be very happy to turn 3 B prospects into a solid young major leaguer who is under team control at a fair price for several years.

 

Don't kid yourself about "3 B prospects". They were 3 of the top 8 in the Sox farm system.

 

Being 3 of of the best in a bad bunch doesn't make them blue chippers.

 

And a .251 hitter isn't ARod either. Swisher is a good acquisition by the White Sox with very good power numbers for a CF. If he moves to LF, RF, or 1B, his numbers are okay but not great. As you (and others) have pointed out, he is under team control at a fair price for several years which makes this a good deal.

 

Seriously? His batting average?