Tracking Cubs 2008 Payroll

[HoopsCubs]

As we're getting close to the start of the off-season, I thought we could use this thread to continuously track and monitor the Cubs 2008 payroll as players are signed and/or traded. I'd request the moderators to give this "sticky" status, if appropriate. As of today:

 

$15M Carlos Zambrano

$13M Alfonso Soriano

$13M Derrek Lee

$14M Aramis Ramirez

$7M Ted Lilly

$5.5M Ryan Dempster (Free agent after 2008 season)

$6.375M Jason Marquis

$5M Jacque Jones (Free agent after 2008 season)

$4.75M Mark DeRosa

$4M Bob Howry (Free agent after 2008 season)

$3.8M Scott Eyre-PLAYER OPTION (Free agent after 2008 season)

$2.8M Henry Blanco

$1.6M Will Ohman (Free agent after 2008 season)

 

To-date, the Cubs have 13 players under contract in 2008 for $95.825M.

 

Take it one step further: assuming the Cubs pick up Daryle Ward's $1.2M option, and assuming that Michael Wuertz (eligible for arbitration) and Ryan Theriot, Geo Soto, Matt Murton, Rich Hill, Carlos Marmol and Kevin Hart (all league minimum) have some role on the 25 man roster, that's another $4.7M.

 

So, the Cubs would now have 21 players at $100.525M.

 

 

Hoops

[JeffH]

Other points of interest:

 

Jacque is due one-third of his $4 signing bonus next January.

 

Barring a catastrophe, the Cubs will owe Trachsel a $0.1 buyout.

 

Zambrano's new deal calls for a $5 signing bonus.

 

It's unclear from which budget(s) these monies are paid.

[moorecg]

As we're getting close to the start of the off-season, I thought we could use this thread to continuously track and monitor the Cubs 2008 payroll as players are signed and/or traded. I'd request the moderators to give this "sticky" status, if appropriate. As of today:

 

$15M Carlos Zambrano

$13M Alfonso Soriano

$13M Derrek Lee

$14M Aramis Ramirez

$7M Ted Lilly

$5.5M Ryan Dempster (Free agent after 2008 season)

$6.375M Jason Marquis

$5M Jacque Jones (Free agent after 2008 season)

$4.75M Mark DeRosa

$4M Bob Howry (Free agent after 2008 season)

$3.8M Scott Eyre-PLAYER OPTION (Free agent after 2008 season)

$2.8M Henry Blanco

$1.6M Will Ohman (Free agent after 2008 season)

 

To-date, the Cubs have 13 players under contract in 2008 for $95.825M.

 

Take it one step further: assuming the Cubs pick up Daryle Ward's $1.2M option, and assuming that Michael Wuertz (eligible for arbitration) and Ryan Theriot, Geo Soto, Matt Murton, Rich Hill, Carlos Marmol and Kevin Hart (all league minimum) have some role on the 25 man roster, that's another $4.7M.

 

So, the Cubs would now have 21 players at $100.525M.

 

 

Hoops

 

So what you're saying is that assuming we have 135 million payroll next year we'll be just fine. :D

[TruffleShuffle]

oh gee you think eyre is gonna exercise that option?

[jersey cubs fan]

oh gee you think eyre is gonna exercise that option?

 

Maybe not if he hears the Yankees and Mets are about to go on a bullpen spending spurge.

[CubColtPacer]

oh gee you think eyre is gonna exercise that option?

 

Maybe not if he hears the Yankees and Mets are about to go on a bullpen spending spurge.

 

I'd be shocked if Eyre declines the option, but if he did I wouldn't be shocked at all to see him get another good deal. Some team would look at his second half numbers from this year and overpay him based on that.

[frostwyrm]

To-date, the Cubs have 13 players under contract in 2008 for $95.825M.

 

2009 is when things get real ugly. 7 players will get $90M, and these are all guys who are currently at their career peaks and can only get worse or more fragile as time goes by. It's going to cost well over $100M just to put a complete team in the dugout. This is an era when slow fat unversatile bench players like Daryle Ward are deemed a bargain at $1.2M, so we'll need a pretty hefty payroll increase to actually contend.

[Sammy Sofa]

God bless inflation.

 

I think the odds of the Cubs being a situation where their payroll doesn't respond to the team needs by 2009 are pretty unlikely...I hope.

[E.J.]

To-date, the Cubs have 13 players under contract in 2008 for $95.825M.

 

2009 is when things get real ugly. 7 players will get $90M, and these are all guys who are currently at their career peaks and can only get worse or more fragile as time goes by. It's going to cost well over $100M just to put a complete team in the dugout. This is an era when slow fat unversatile bench players like Daryle Ward are deemed a bargain at $1.2M, so we'll need a pretty hefty payroll increase to actually contend.

 

Thank you Jim Hendry. :wall:

[LeftCoastCubFan]

As we're getting close to the start of the off-season, I thought we could use this thread to continuously track and monitor the Cubs 2008 payroll as players are signed and/or traded. I'd request the moderators to give this "sticky" status, if appropriate. As of today:

 

$15M Carlos Zambrano

$13M Alfonso Soriano

$13M Derrek Lee

$14M Aramis Ramirez

$7M Ted Lilly

$5.5M Ryan Dempster (Free agent after 2008 season)

$6.375M Jason Marquis

$5M Jacque Jones (Free agent after 2008 season)

$4.75M Mark DeRosa

$4M Bob Howry (Free agent after 2008 season)

$3.8M Scott Eyre-PLAYER OPTION (Free agent after 2008 season)

$2.8M Henry Blanco

$1.6M Will Ohman (Free agent after 2008 season)

 

To-date, the Cubs have 13 players under contract in 2008 for $95.825M.

 

Take it one step further: assuming the Cubs pick up Daryle Ward's $1.2M option, and assuming that Michael Wuertz (eligible for arbitration) and Ryan Theriot, Geo Soto, Matt Murton, Rich Hill, Carlos Marmol and Kevin Hart (all league minimum) have some role on the 25 man roster, that's another $4.7M.

 

So, the Cubs would now have 21 players at $100.525M.

 

 

Hoops

 

Zambrano should be at 16, Ramirez at 15, Soriano at 14 , Lilly at 8, Jones at 6.3 , Dempster at 5.8, Howry at 4.5 when you include the prorated signing bonus that need to be included in the figure. I agree that it is likely Howry will exercise his option. So I have 13 players at 102 million.

 

If they go cheap for the other 12 spots, you are probably over 107 million.

 

It will be interesting to see where the budget is set at.

[TheDude]

To-date, the Cubs have 13 players under contract in 2008 for $95.825M.

 

2009 is when things get real ugly. 7 players will get $90M, and these are all guys who are currently at their career peaks and can only get worse or more fragile as time goes by. It's going to cost well over $100M just to put a complete team in the dugout. This is an era when slow fat unversatile bench players like Daryle Ward are deemed a bargain at $1.2M, so we'll need a pretty hefty payroll increase to actually contend.

 

Thank you Jim Hendry. :wall:

 

I wouldn't overreact just yet. Guys like A-Rod and Drew are opting out of contracts nobody would have ever thought they would opt out on. Even just two years ago people never would have thought A-Rod would leave $25 million the table.

 

Granted those two are young enough still to have done so, but with the rate the game is tracking, 2 offseasons from now is long ways away and it's possible the 2009 team salary is around $135 million.

[BigbadB]

I wouldn't overreact just yet. Guys like A-Rod and Drew are opting out of contracts nobody would have ever thought they would opt out on. Even just two years ago people never would have thought A-Rod would leave $25 million the table.

 

Granted those two are young enough still to have done so, but with the rate the game is tracking, 2 offseasons from now is long ways away and it's possible the 2009 team salary is around $135 million.

 

I'm in agreement with you there. I think it was the offseason of 2000 going into 2001 when we fans were debating whether the team could afford to go from a 60m payroll to 65m. It very well could have been 2001-2002. I don't remember the year now.

 

5-6 years later, payroll has jumped to almost double. Yeah, a few more seats have been added and ticket prices have been adjusted a few times, and rooftop owners are paying their share, but the stadium is still selling out.

 

I don't know where the Cubs rank in terms of cost per ticket with other major league clubs (I hear Boston is #1), but I don't think they are much higher than other teams. They could afford to go up even more if they wanted to. The season ticket holders are the ones who would take the biggest hit. But, the percentage of season ticket holders seems pretty high compared to other teams. The mad scramble for tickets at the beginning of each season wouldn't lessen much, IMO, if ticket prices were increased once again in order to afford ARod.

[CubFanPhilly]

I don't know where the Cubs rank in terms of cost per ticket with other major league clubs (I hear Boston is #1), but I don't think they are much higher than other teams. They could afford to go up even more if they wanted to. The season ticket holders are the ones who would take the biggest hit. But, the percentage of season ticket holders seems pretty high compared to other teams. The mad scramble for tickets at the beginning of each season wouldn't lessen much, IMO, if ticket prices were increased once again in order to afford ARod.

 

Average Ticket Prices (2006)

Red Sox   $46.47
Cubs      $34.30
Yankees   $28.27
Cardinals $29.78
Mets      $25.28

MLB Avg.  $22.21

 

It would take roughly a $9 (or 25%) increase in ticket prices to recoup the cost of ARod. TV revenues play a part, but unless you're in a position to exploit the additional ratings (e.g., YES Network), those added revenues are shared with others (e.g., Comcast) or delayed because the TV contracts aren't renewed each year. Domestic merchandise sales are shared across the league (not much help there). The park is already virtually sold out each year, so there's very little impact on attendance.

 

Ironically, the Tribune Company is best positioned to realize the benefit of adding a player like ARod because they'll benefit from the likely bump in WGN ratings.

 

CFP

[vance_the_cubs_fan]

I don't know where the Cubs rank in terms of cost per ticket with other major league clubs (I hear Boston is #1), but I don't think they are much higher than other teams. They could afford to go up even more if they wanted to. The season ticket holders are the ones who would take the biggest hit. But, the percentage of season ticket holders seems pretty high compared to other teams. The mad scramble for tickets at the beginning of each season wouldn't lessen much, IMO, if ticket prices were increased once again in order to afford ARod.

 

Average Ticket Prices (2006)

Red Sox   $46.47
Cubs      $34.30
Yankees   $28.27
Cardinals $29.78
Mets      $25.28

MLB Avg.  $22.21

 

It would take roughly a $9 (or 25%) increase in ticket prices to recoup the cost of ARod. TV revenues play a part, but unless you're in a position to exploit the additional ratings (e.g., YES Network), those added revenues are shared with others (e.g., Comcast) or delayed because the TV contracts aren't renewed each year. Domestic merchandise sales are shared across the league (not much help there). The park is already virtually sold out each year, so there's very little impact on attendance.

 

Ironically, the Tribune Company is best positioned to realize the benefit of adding a player like ARod because they'll benefit from the likely bump in WGN ratings.

 

CFP

 

The big difference with the Cubs ticket prices and other stadia, is the lack of cheap seats at Wrigley. The higher priced seats at Wrigley are no more expensive than many higher priced areas at other ballparks. However, at many places there are $4-$6 seats while the Cubs don't have anything that cheap.

[CubFanPhilly]

 

The big difference with the Cubs ticket prices and other stadia, is the lack of cheap seats at Wrigley. The higher priced seats at Wrigley are no more expensive than many higher priced areas at other ballparks. However, at many places there are $4-$6 seats while the Cubs don't have anything that cheap.

 

The limited seating capacity may hinder the ability to add marginal revenue. Almost all of the additional revenue has to be captured by ticket price increases because obviously the park is nearly filled to capacity every game. But on the other hand, the lack of unutilized cheaper seats probably enhances the Cubs and the Red Sox to sustain price increases because the fans don't have the option of downgrading to less expensive seats. In other words, the demand for Red Sox and Cubs tickets is less price elastic than the demand for Yankees tickets.

 

Here's a further breakdown of attendance and revenue data:

 

       [Avg. Price] [Est. 2007 Gate] [Capacity] [Attendance] [% Capacity]
Red Sox   $46.47      $138.1 mil.      2.95 mil      2.97 mil     101.4%
Cubs      $34.30      $111.5 mil.      3.33 mil.     3.25 mil.     97.7%
Yankees   $28.27      $120.8 mil.      4.85 mil.     4.27 mil.     88.1%
Cardinals $29.78      $105.8 mil.      3.57 mil.     3.55 mil.     99.4%
Mets      $25.28       $97.4 mil.      4.73 mil.     3.85 mil.     81.4%

Note: the estimated gate is just the average price x the attendance.  Actual revenue generated was probably higher, particularly for teams with a lower pct. of capacity because unsold seats were probably the cheaper seats.

[KJ4578]

The playing surface is being redone this winter which will lower it 3 feet. Perhaps next winter there will be plans to add an additional couple of rows. That might raise an additional few million in revenue.

[HoopsCubs]

UPDATED November 14, 2007

 

In reading what you guys wrote, I think it's a good idea to do an update with the pro-rated signing bonuses included plus the latest changes:

 

$16M Carlos Zambrano

$14M Alfonso Soriano

$13M Derrek Lee

$15M Aramis Ramirez

$8M Ted Lilly

$5.833M Ryan Dempster (Free agent after 2008 season)

$6.375M Jason Marquis

$4.75M Mark DeRosa

$4.5M Bob Howry (Free agent after 2008 season)

$4.133M Scott Eyre-PLAYER OPTION (Free agent after 2008 season)

$3.175M Henry Blanco

$1.6M Will Ohman (Free agent after 2008 season)

$1.2M Darryl Ward

$2.0M CASH sent to Detroit in Jacque Jones trade

 

To-date, the Cubs have 13 players under contract with an obligation of $99.6M.

 

Taking it one step further: assuming that Michael Wuertz and Omar Infante (eligible for arbitration at $1.0M and $1.5M estimated), and Ryan Theriot, Felix Pie, Geovanni Soto, Matt Murton, Rich Hill, Carlos Marmol and Kevin Hart (all league minimum at 0.415M) have some role on the 25 man roster, that's another $5.4M.

 

So, the Cubs would now have 22 players at $105M.

 

With the report today by Paul Sullivan that Hendry's expected payroll is $120-125M, that gives the Cubs $15-20M to spend on 3 more players (4 if you want to include Mark Prior). I believe those 3 players will be one of these 2 scenarios:

 

(1) Kerry Wood, a right-handed pinch hitter with power to complement Ward and a starting left-handed hitting RF or CF (in which case Theriot or Infante will start at SS)

(2) Kerry Wood, a starting SS and a cheap left-handed hitting RF to platoon with Murton

 

 

Hoops

[TruffleShuffle]

wait so we're going to throw in $2M with the jones trade and also pay infante $1.5M? That trade was pretty pointless then.

[CubColtPacer]

wait so we're going to throw in $2M with the jones trade and also pay infante $1.5M? That trade was pretty pointless then.

 

Yeah. We're getting somewhere in between 2.5 and 3 million savings from the Jones trade at this point.

[TruffleShuffle]

wait so we're going to throw in $2M with the jones trade and also pay infante $1.5M? That trade was pretty pointless then.

 

Yeah. We're getting somewhere in between 2.5 and 3 million savings from the Jones trade at this point.

 

oh okay, the tigers are paying the third portion ($1.33M) of the bonus payment too? I forgot about that when factoring in the savings; I just thought of the $5M salary next year.

[CubColtPacer]

wait so we're going to throw in $2M with the jones trade and also pay infante $1.5M? That trade was pretty pointless then.

 

Yeah. We're getting somewhere in between 2.5 and 3 million savings from the Jones trade at this point.

 

oh okay, the tigers are paying the third portion ($1.33M) of the bonus payment too? I forgot about that when factoring in the savings; I just thought of the $5M salary next year.

 

Yeah. I don't know who is handling what of the bonus or salary, but the 2 million is coming out of the 6.33 number instead of just the 5 million salary.

[nilodnayr]

Bruce just said that payroll is going to be $115MM for 2008.

[BigbadB]

Bruce just said that payroll is going to be $115MM for 2008.

 

I don't think that's exactly what Bruce said. I think what he said sounded more like:

 

I look for the payroll to be about $115 million, by the way.

[nilodnayr]

Bruce just said that payroll is going to be $115MM for 2008.

 

I don't think that's exactly what Bruce said. I think what he said sounded more like:

 

I look for the payroll to be about $115 million, by the way.

 

 

Thanks, I was too lazy to copy and paste.

[bhogg]

I just hope they give themselves some wiggle room to make a big deadline deal. With so many teams competing for playoff spots these days, the difference in a mediocre deal and a blockbuster will be money.