Bruce Chimes In

[Flames24Rulz]

there is and never was nothing wrong with soriano batting leadoff with his subpar onbase percentage. Theriot on the other hand was a disaster.

 

See, I don't always disagree with you. You're right about this.

[CubColtPacer]

Lou classifies hitters into two different categories, his middle of the order and what he likes to call his 2/8 hitters. The 2/8 hitters are the ones who Lou feels don't have enough power to hit in between 3-7. Lou absolutely hates batting a non-power hitter in any spot between 3 and 7. If he has one more good hitter left, he'd rather bat him 7th than 2nd. 5th and 6th are even bigger examples of this. There were a lot of calls for Murton and DeRosa to slide into that #2 spot, but it seems pretty obvious that Lou thinks they are more important as run producers behind the big boppers.

 

 

If both Theriot and Pie start next year, they'll almost certainly be the 2nd and 8th place hitters, but I just don't know which way they will be. My hope is that the Cubs can upgrade SS, which will allow DeRosa to move up to #2, and Pie can slide to 8.

[hardcorecubfan]

Bruce is sooo full of it. where does he get off writing this dribble every damn week. baseball is OBVIOUSLY not about walks. they clog bases. and he who spends the most wins the most. duh. Hendry should have him banned from the clubhouse.

 

 

 

dusty, are you trolling again

[CubmanPi]

The other big lesson I want to see the Cubs learn out of all this is that the Rockies, with the possible exception of Helton, didn't have a single player on their roster who was bursting at the seems with experience or who was a "proven winner." With the success of the 03 Marlins and this year's Rockies and Indians (maybe last year's Tigers, though I wouldn't really know), I hope more teams realize that rationalizing acquisitions by using such bullcrap cliches is worthless.

[Illini Iceman]

The other big lesson I want to see the Cubs learn out of all this is that the Rockies, with the possible exception of Helton, didn't have a single player on their roster who was bursting at the seems with experience or who was a "proven winner." With the success of the 03 Marlins and this year's Rockies and Indians (maybe last year's Tigers, though I wouldn't really know), I hope more teams realize that rationalizing acquisitions by using such bullcrap cliches is worthless.

 

And FWIW they would not have even made the playoffs if Trevor Hoffman had just been able to convert 1 of his final 2 save opportunities. The Rockies beat two other teams in the Phillies and D-Backs that also did not have many players on their roster who were "bursting at the seams with experience". I think I agree with your point, but I am not sure the Rockies help too much in proving it.

[Vanilla Ice]

Heres Baseball Musings Lineup Analyzer

 

I already loaded in the 2007 stats for the team (assumed only Murton in RF, Soto @ C hitting 350/420, and Z at pitcher). Have fun.

 

If you took Theriot out of the 2-hole, moved him to 9 and moved everyone up a spot, you increase your r/g by 0.16.

 

Swap A-Rod (assuming this year's stats) for Theriot average runs per game goes from 5.085 to 5.679

 

worth 300 million?

[Transmogrified Tiger]

Heres Baseball Musings Lineup Analyzer

 

I already loaded in the 2007 stats for the team (assumed only Murton in RF, Soto @ C hitting 350/420, and Z at pitcher). Have fun.

 

If you took Theriot out of the 2-hole, moved him to 9 and moved everyone up a spot, you increase your r/g by 0.16.

 

Swap A-Rod (assuming this year's stats) for Theriot average runs per game goes from 5.085 to 5.679

 

worth 300 million?

 

~100 extra runs per year? Yeah, yeah it is.

[imb]

Heres Baseball Musings Lineup Analyzer

 

I already loaded in the 2007 stats for the team (assumed only Murton in RF, Soto @ C hitting 350/420, and Z at pitcher). Have fun.

 

If you took Theriot out of the 2-hole, moved him to 9 and moved everyone up a spot, you increase your r/g by 0.16.

 

Swap A-Rod (assuming this year's stats) for Theriot average runs per game goes from 5.085 to 5.679

 

worth 300 million?

 

~100 extra runs per year? Yeah, yeah it is.

 

Holy moly that is a lot

[badnews]

I agree with your arguement here. Wouldnt Soriano and his high Slugging Percentage be better hitting behind DLee and his .400 OBP though?

 

Let's say with the bases empty Soriano hits like Vlad Guerrero and with runners on or RISP he hits like Mark DeRosa. Is this who you want to give the majority of your RBI opportunities to? If so, why not just give them to Mark DeRosa already. Who would you rather pay $18 million a year for, Vlad Guerrero or Mark DeRosa?

 

Frankly I have little faith in Soriano really. As long as we're stuck with him we should just leave well enough alone and stop complaining about the solo home runs. I remember when Bill Mueller was with the Red Sox he had this crazy schtick where he'd only want to bat 8th, and everyone wanted him to bat up in the lineup, and they tried him at leadoff and he just crapped out.

[moorecg]

Heres Baseball Musings Lineup Analyzer

 

I already loaded in the 2007 stats for the team (assumed only Murton in RF, Soto @ C hitting 350/420, and Z at pitcher). Have fun.

 

If you took Theriot out of the 2-hole, moved him to 9 and moved everyone up a spot, you increase your r/g by 0.16.

 

Not to pimp LaRussa at all...but in every scenario there it says Z should bat 8th.

[Fred Hornkohl]

Heres Baseball Musings Lineup Analyzer

 

I already loaded in the 2007 stats for the team (assumed only Murton in RF, Soto @ C hitting 350/420, and Z at pitcher). Have fun.

 

If you took Theriot out of the 2-hole, moved him to 9 and moved everyone up a spot, you increase your r/g by 0.16.

 

Not to pimp LaRussa at all...but in every scenario there it says Z should bat 8th.

 

This is the same Zambrano who's OPS exceeds only those of 4 backup catchers ????

 

04/02 - 09/30      AB    R    H   2B   3B   HR   TB  RBI   BB   SO     BA    OBP    SLG    OPS  BABIP
Soto               54   12   21    6    0    3   36    8    5   14  0.389  0.433  0.667  1.100  0.486
Ward              110   16   36   13    0    3   58   19   22   23  0.327  0.436  0.527  0.963  0.393
Ramirez           506   72  158   35    4   26  279  101   45   65  0.312  0.369  0.551  0.920  0.318
Lee               567   91  180   43    1   22  291   81   70  112  0.317  0.399  0.513  0.912  0.365
Soriano           579   97  173   42    5   32  321   72   31  130  0.299  0.337  0.554  0.892  0.338
Floyd             283   40   80   10    1    9  119   45   35   47  0.283  0.370  0.420  0.790  0.313
DeRosa            502   65  147   27    3   10  210   73   58   93  0.293  0.370  0.418  0.789  0.343
Murton            235   35   66   12    0    8  102   22   26   37  0.281  0.352  0.434  0.787  0.305
Barrett           211   23   54    9    0    9   90   28   19   36  0.256  0.313  0.427  0.740  0.271
Pagan             148   21   39   10    2    4   65   20    8   33  0.264  0.297  0.439  0.737  0.315
Fontenot          234   30   65   12    4    3   94   29   21   43  0.278  0.333  0.402  0.735  0.330
Jones             452   52  129   32    2    5  180   66   33   66  0.285  0.333  0.398  0.732  0.325
Kendall           174   21   47   10    1    1   62   19   19   15  0.270  0.359  0.356  0.715  0.291
Theriot           533   80  142   30    2    3  185   44   48   50  0.266  0.325  0.347  0.672  0.290
Monroe             49    6   10    4    0    1   17    4    6   13  0.204  0.291  0.347  0.638  0.257
Cedeno             74    6   15    2    0    4   29   13    3   18  0.203  0.234  0.392  0.626  0.212
Patterson           8    0    2    1    0    0    3    0    0    3  0.250  0.250  0.375  0.625  0.400
Izturis           191   15   47   12    0    0   59    8   13   16  0.246  0.298  0.309  0.606  0.269
Pie               177   26   38    9    3    2   59   20   14   43  0.215  0.271  0.333  0.604  0.273
Zambrano           81    8   20    2    0    2   28    5    1   27  0.247  0.256  0.346  0.602  0.346
K Hill             97    7   16    4    0    2   26   12    8   18  0.165  0.231  0.268  0.500  0.182
Fox                14    3    2    2    0    0    4    1    1    2  0.143  0.200  0.286  0.486  0.167
Blanco             54    3    9    3    0    0   12    4    2   11  0.167  0.193  0.222  0.415  0.209
Bowen              31    3    2    1    0    0    3    2    4   13  0.065  0.167  0.097  0.263  0.111

[Derwood]

how about we replace Freel with Sizemore?

 

.277/.390/.462

 

Higher OBP, lower SLG, OPS+ just 1 point behind Soriano (122 vs. 123)

 

Who would you rather have leading off?

[moorecg]

Heres Baseball Musings Lineup Analyzer

 

I already loaded in the 2007 stats for the team (assumed only Murton in RF, Soto @ C hitting 350/420, and Z at pitcher). Have fun.

 

If you took Theriot out of the 2-hole, moved him to 9 and moved everyone up a spot, you increase your r/g by 0.16.

 

Not to pimp LaRussa at all...but in every scenario there it says Z should bat 8th.

 

This is the same Zambrano who's OPS exceeds only those of 4 backup catchers ????

 

04/02 - 09/30      AB    R    H   2B   3B   HR   TB  RBI   BB   SO     BA    OBP    SLG    OPS  BABIP
Soto               54   12   21    6    0    3   36    8    5   14  0.389  0.433  0.667  1.100  0.486
Ward              110   16   36   13    0    3   58   19   22   23  0.327  0.436  0.527  0.963  0.393
Ramirez           506   72  158   35    4   26  279  101   45   65  0.312  0.369  0.551  0.920  0.318
Lee               567   91  180   43    1   22  291   81   70  112  0.317  0.399  0.513  0.912  0.365
Soriano           579   97  173   42    5   32  321   72   31  130  0.299  0.337  0.554  0.892  0.338
Floyd             283   40   80   10    1    9  119   45   35   47  0.283  0.370  0.420  0.790  0.313
DeRosa            502   65  147   27    3   10  210   73   58   93  0.293  0.370  0.418  0.789  0.343
Murton            235   35   66   12    0    8  102   22   26   37  0.281  0.352  0.434  0.787  0.305
Barrett           211   23   54    9    0    9   90   28   19   36  0.256  0.313  0.427  0.740  0.271
Pagan             148   21   39   10    2    4   65   20    8   33  0.264  0.297  0.439  0.737  0.315
Fontenot          234   30   65   12    4    3   94   29   21   43  0.278  0.333  0.402  0.735  0.330
Jones             452   52  129   32    2    5  180   66   33   66  0.285  0.333  0.398  0.732  0.325
Kendall           174   21   47   10    1    1   62   19   19   15  0.270  0.359  0.356  0.715  0.291
Theriot           533   80  142   30    2    3  185   44   48   50  0.266  0.325  0.347  0.672  0.290
Monroe             49    6   10    4    0    1   17    4    6   13  0.204  0.291  0.347  0.638  0.257
Cedeno             74    6   15    2    0    4   29   13    3   18  0.203  0.234  0.392  0.626  0.212
Patterson           8    0    2    1    0    0    3    0    0    3  0.250  0.250  0.375  0.625  0.400
Izturis           191   15   47   12    0    0   59    8   13   16  0.246  0.298  0.309  0.606  0.269
Pie               177   26   38    9    3    2   59   20   14   43  0.215  0.271  0.333  0.604  0.273
Zambrano           81    8   20    2    0    2   28    5    1   27  0.247  0.256  0.346  0.602  0.346
K Hill             97    7   16    4    0    2   26   12    8   18  0.165  0.231  0.268  0.500  0.182
Fox                14    3    2    2    0    0    4    1    1    2  0.143  0.200  0.286  0.486  0.167
Blanco             54    3    9    3    0    0   12    4    2   11  0.167  0.193  0.222  0.415  0.209
Bowen              31    3    2    1    0    0    3    2    4   13  0.065  0.167  0.097  0.263  0.111

 

I think that's kind of the point...maybe putting the pitcher 8th to have a "2nd' lead off guy at the bottom isn't as horrible as we thought....I'm not adovating either way...just thought it was interesting that the Lineup Analyzer he had listed Z as the 8th hitter in each of the "best case" scenarios.

[Guest]

Heres Baseball Musings Lineup Analyzer

 

I already loaded in the 2007 stats for the team (assumed only Murton in RF, Soto @ C hitting 350/420, and Z at pitcher). Have fun.

 

If you took Theriot out of the 2-hole, moved him to 9 and moved everyone up a spot, you increase your r/g by 0.16.

 

Swap A-Rod (assuming this year's stats) for Theriot average runs per game goes from 5.085 to 5.679

 

worth 300 million?

 

 

 

In the Cubs case, probably, since this could push them over the top.

[BigSlick]

Who would you bat lead off? If we had say Jones leading off and moved Soriano to fifth (behind Lee and Ramirez) we would expect him to come up to the plate about 80 less times over the course of the season.

 

Anyways it doesn't matter. Moving Soriano down if it is the problem, is the least of the teams concerns. Right now we play automatic outs at SS, C, CF and RF. That's why the offense stunk. It had nothing to do with Soriano batting leadoff. It's irrelevent (which was my main point). Besides order doesn't matter much if anything. This should be the least of our concerns.

 

Not for long. 8-)

[Vanilla Ice]

Who would you bat lead off? If we had say Jones leading off and moved Soriano to fifth (behind Lee and Ramirez) we would expect him to come up to the plate about 80 less times over the course of the season.

 

Anyways it doesn't matter. Moving Soriano down if it is the problem, is the least of the teams concerns. Right now we play automatic outs at SS, C, CF and RF. That's why the offense stunk. It had nothing to do with Soriano batting leadoff. It's irrelevent (which was my main point). Besides order doesn't matter much if anything. This should be the least of our concerns.

 

Not for long. 8-)

 

The first one in awhile

 

 

Geovany Soto

[Warren Brusstar]

how about we replace Freel with Sizemore?

 

.277/.390/.462

 

Higher OBP, lower SLG, OPS+ just 1 point behind Soriano (122 vs. 123)

 

Who would you rather have leading off?

 

Because clearly the Cubs have Grady Sizemore as an option.

 

Soriano is an eminently reasonable choice to lead off given the resources at hand.

[haltz]

I think that's kind of the point...maybe putting the pitcher 8th to have a "2nd' lead off guy at the bottom isn't as horrible as we thought....I'm not adovating either way...just thought it was interesting that the Lineup Analyzer he had listed Z as the 8th hitter in each of the "best case" scenarios.

 

THT: Is LaRussa right to bat his pitcher in the eight slot?

[Derwood]

how about we replace Freel with Sizemore?

 

.277/.390/.462

 

Higher OBP, lower SLG, OPS+ just 1 point behind Soriano (122 vs. 123)

 

Who would you rather have leading off?

 

Because clearly the Cubs have Grady Sizemore as an option.

 

Soriano is an eminently reasonable choice to lead off given the resources at hand.

 

who said sizemore was an option? i'm simply asking what people would prefer if given two options with identical OPS+ : higher OBP/lower SLG or lower OBP/higher SLG

[javy knows my name]

how about we replace Freel with Sizemore?

 

.277/.390/.462

 

Higher OBP, lower SLG, OPS+ just 1 point behind Soriano (122 vs. 123)

 

Who would you rather have leading off?

 

Because clearly the Cubs have Grady Sizemore as an option.

 

Soriano is an eminently reasonable choice to lead off given the resources at hand.

 

who said sizemore was an option? i'm simply asking what people would prefer if given two options with identical OPS+ : higher OBP/lower SLG or lower OBP/higher SLG

 

1 point of OBP > 1 point of SLG. Grady's OBP is almost 60 points higher than Soriano's this year. I don't see much of a debate.

[Tracer Bullet]

how about we replace Freel with Sizemore?

 

.277/.390/.462

 

Higher OBP, lower SLG, OPS+ just 1 point behind Soriano (122 vs. 123)

 

Who would you rather have leading off?

 

Because clearly the Cubs have Grady Sizemore as an option.

 

Soriano is an eminently reasonable choice to lead off given the resources at hand.

 

who said sizemore was an option? i'm simply asking what people would prefer if given two options with identical OPS+ : higher OBP/lower SLG or lower OBP/higher SLG

 

So what point are you trying to make? If we had Sizemore in CF and Soriano in LF, are you seeing if anyone would suggest that batting Soriano 1st makes sense?

[javy knows my name]

how about we replace Freel with Sizemore?

 

.277/.390/.462

 

Higher OBP, lower SLG, OPS+ just 1 point behind Soriano (122 vs. 123)

 

Who would you rather have leading off?

 

Because clearly the Cubs have Grady Sizemore as an option.

 

Soriano is an eminently reasonable choice to lead off given the resources at hand.

 

who said sizemore was an option? i'm simply asking what people would prefer if given two options with identical OPS+ : higher OBP/lower SLG or lower OBP/higher SLG

 

So what point are you trying to make? If we had Sizemore in CF and Soriano in LF, are you seeing if anyone would suggest that batting Soriano 1st makes sense?

 

Oh God, I think I need to change my pants now.

[Derwood]

how about we replace Freel with Sizemore?

 

.277/.390/.462

 

Higher OBP, lower SLG, OPS+ just 1 point behind Soriano (122 vs. 123)

 

Who would you rather have leading off?

 

Because clearly the Cubs have Grady Sizemore as an option.

 

Soriano is an eminently reasonable choice to lead off given the resources at hand.

 

who said sizemore was an option? i'm simply asking what people would prefer if given two options with identical OPS+ : higher OBP/lower SLG or lower OBP/higher SLG

 

So what point are you trying to make? If we had Sizemore in CF and Soriano in LF, are you seeing if anyone would suggest that batting Soriano 1st makes sense?

 

i don't even remember anymore. something to do with Meph pulling out Ryan Freel as a "leadoff" guy that anyone with half a brain wouldn't want on the team instead of a comparable player to Soriano in the leadoff debate

[TruffleShuffle]

the hand-wringing about who should hit where ignores the overall problem, which is that there are not enough high-obp players on the roster

[Mephistopheles]

how about we replace Freel with Sizemore?

 

.277/.390/.462

 

Higher OBP, lower SLG, OPS+ just 1 point behind Soriano (122 vs. 123)

 

Who would you rather have leading off?

 

Now you're doing this: Replacing a hitter with a better hitter. I wouldn't keep OPS constant because I know that OPS that is OBP driven means more than OBP that is slugging driven. However, in this case the only way Soriano shouldn't bat lead off is if there's a realistic choice and that choice is a better hitter than him. Sizemore is a poor comparison and you justify this by saying they have the same OPS+ (which is a worthless statistic). You tried to prove your point by saying hey this guy is better thus obp kills soriano. the perfect comparison would be someone with an identical EqA and a higher OBP (lower SLG). When looking at this our choice is:

 

.299/.337/.560 - Alfonso Soriano

.258/.351/.459 - Nate McLouth

.306/.353/.488 - Robinson Cano

.263/.355/.441 - Ian Kinsler

.265/.364/.463 - Josh Willingham

.283/.369/.445 - Bobby Abreu

 

As you can see we're looking at mainly .260/.360/.450 guys who OPS around 810 compared to Soriano's 897.