Cubs vs. Diamondbacks Pre Series Discussion Thread

[UMFan83]

Just an idea. I guess we could put a gamethread up, but I would like to start discussing now.

 

Just piecing this together, but this looks like their lineup that they have been trotting out:

 

Chris Young, CF - .237 - 32 - 68

Stephen Drew, SS - .240 - 12 - 60

Eric Byrnes, LF - .286 - 21 - 83

Conor Jackson, 1B - .285 - 15 - 60

Mark Reynolds, 3B - .281 - 17 - 62

Chris Snyder, C - .252 - 13 - 47

Justin Upton, RF - .221 - 2 - 11

Augie Ojeda, 2B - .274 - 1 - 11

 

Yes Augie Ojeda.

 

Cubs catch a huge break having both Orlando Hudson (who in theory makes Brandon Webb that much better) and Chad Tracy out for the series, forcing them to be replaced with Juston Upton (one of the top prospects in baseball but producing like Felix Pie right now) and Augie Ojeda.

 

Pitching matchups:

 

Game 1: Carlos Zambrano vs. Brandon Webb

Game 2: Ted Lilly vs. Doug Davis

Game 3: Rich Hill vs. Livan Hernandez

Game 4: Jason Marquis/Carlos Zambrano (on 3 days) vs. Micah Owings

Game 5: Ted Lilly vs. Brandon Webb

 

DBacks pitching matchups confirmed on DBacks website

[Derwood]

this is a good thread until we determine a game tread starter

[CubsBears29]

Don't care how we do it, but if we can get to Wrigley with the series sitting at 1-1, gotta like our chances. Edited September 30, 2007 by CubsBears29

[Vanilla Ice]

Pitching matchups:

 

Game 1: Carlos Zambrano vs. Brandon Webb

Game 2: Ted Lilly vs. Doug Davis

Game 3: Rich Hill vs. Livan Hernandez

Game 4: Jason Marquis/Carlos Zambrano (on 3 days) vs. Micah Owings

Game 5: Ted Lilly vs. Brandon Webb

 

DBacks pitching matchups confirmed on DBacks website

 

Owings would pitch game 4? Might just be me but he seems better than Davis and Hernandez

[TysonCBulls423]

bhogg and southpaw for NLDS starters

 

and

 

Wood vs Webb for Game 5...eh eh :lol:

[ctcf]

Edit: They definitely won't use Marshall as a starter? Edited September 30, 2007 by ctcf

[UMFan83]

Pitching matchups:

 

Game 1: Carlos Zambrano vs. Brandon Webb

Game 2: Ted Lilly vs. Doug Davis

Game 3: Rich Hill vs. Livan Hernandez

Game 4: Jason Marquis/Carlos Zambrano (on 3 days) vs. Micah Owings

Game 5: Ted Lilly vs. Brandon Webb

 

DBacks pitching matchups confirmed on DBacks website

 

Owings would pitch game 4? Might just be me but he seems better than Davis and Hernandez

 

I read on the DBacks website that is the order that they want to go in.

 

http://arizona.diamondbacks.mlb.com/news/article.jsp?ymd=20070930&content_id=2240908&vkey=news_ari&fext=.jsp&c_id=ari

[Keener98]

If Im the Dbacks I start Owings in the OF or something the days he dont pitch. Hes one of their best hitters, hes probable better than 3-4 of the guys in their lineup.

[David]

It's an interesting situation. I remember, back in 2003 when the Braves started Ortiz on short rest, all these stats were coming out about how pitchers usually do pretty poorly when their teams bring them out on short rest. Obviously, it makes complete logical sense.

 

On the other hand, though, Z is the type of guy who has seemed to do worse when he's too fresh and pumped up. He loses the sink and starts throwing harder and higher and giving up more fly balls. Maybe it's just perception, but I know I'm not the only one who has the same impression. Playoffs, opening days, coming off extra rest, etc..

 

On the other hand, Z didn't do all that great when he pitched on short rest earlier this month. So it could be moot.

 

 

So, I guess the question is... Is Z on short rest in game 4 > gambling on Marquis showing up in Game 4 and having a fresher Z in a potential game 5?

[CubColtPacer]

It's an interesting situation. I remember, back in 2003 when the Braves started Ortiz on short rest, all these stats were coming out about how pitchers usually do pretty poorly when their teams bring them out on short rest. Obviously, it makes complete logical sense.

 

On the other hand, though, Z is the type of guy who has seemed to do worse when he's too fresh and pumped up. He loses the sink and starts throwing harder and higher and giving up more fly balls. Maybe it's just perception, but I know I'm not the only one who has the same impression. Playoffs, opening days, coming off extra rest, etc..

 

On the other hand, Z didn't do all that great when he pitched on short rest earlier this month. So it could be moot.

 

 

So, I guess the question is... Is Z on short rest in game 4 > gambling on Marquis showing up in Game 4 and having a fresher Z in a potential game 5?

 

I'd start Z on short rest. I thought his stuff was fine when pitching on short rest earlier in the month, he was just facing a lot of hitters that really do well historically against him. I also think the adrenaline of the playoffs would help offset being tired at all.

 

Is the difference between Lilly and Marquis greater than the difference between Z on normal rest and short rest? IMO, yes and I think he should start on Sunday.

 

At the same time, since Z has become more of a fly ball pitcher he has been better on the road than at home (both 2006 and 2007). That probably needs to be considered as well.

[Twiggy]

GO Cubs GO. I'll be happy with 1-1 and back to Chicago

[Derwood]

GO Cubs GO. I'll be happy with 1-1 and back to Chicago

 

i have much more confidence winning in Game 2 (Lilly vs. Davis) than Game 1 (Z vs. Webb)

[David]

GO Cubs GO. I'll be happy with 1-1 and back to Chicago

 

At least that means the Cubs would've claimed HFA. But I'm greedy. I want 2-0. :)

[hawkeyecub]

GO Cubs GO. I'll be happy with 1-1 and back to Chicago

 

i have much more confidence winning in Game 2 (Lilly vs. Davis) than Game 1 (Z vs. Webb)

 

Same here. Davis makes me nervous, but I could see us jumping on him and I'm more confident in Ted to give us 6-7 good innings than Z.

 

We just need to find a way to get a split.

[Mizzou]

I was typing up some stuff to start a similar thread, but you beat me to it. Anyways, here's what I had...

 

Brandon Webb will be starting game one. He’s obviously a stud pitcher, but he’s been better on the road than at home, so we catch a break there. He holds righties in check (.199 BAA), but lefties have actually been better than average against him (.272 BAA). In his one start against us this year, he went 7 innings, giving up 2 earned runs on 5 hits.

 

Doug Davis will be starting game two. He’s a lefty. Uh oh. Like Webb, Davis is much better away from home. His ERA is a run higher at home (4.75) than on the road (3.75). So again, a break there. However, since he throws with his left hand, he beat us in the one start he had against us, giving up one run on just 6 hits over 7 innings back in August.

 

Livan Hernandez will likely be starting the third game for some reason. Livan has been bad this year. Opponents are hitting over .300 against him, and his ERA has hovered around 5 all year.

 

Micah Owings will likely start game four. Micah’s ERA is a full run higher on the road (4.96) than it is at home (3.81), so yet another break there, since he’ll be starting the first game at Wrigley. In two starts against the Cubs this year, the rookie has given up 5 runs in 10 innings.

 

Their bullpen is good. Very good. Their closer, Jose Valverde, has been pretty lights out this year. Their offense, on the other hand, sucks. They’re 15th in the NL in Batting Average, dead last in OBP, and 13th in OPS.

 

I like our chances a lot. I'm calling a sweep.

[BCVM22]

I like our chances a lot. I'm calling a sweep.

 

You have far more October optimism than I.

[otis89]

I like our chances a lot. I'm calling a sweep.

 

How many months of premium are you willing to bet on that?

[E.J.]

If Im the Dbacks I start Owings in the OF or something the days he dont pitch. Hes one of their best hitters, hes probable better than 3-4 of the guys in their lineup.

 

Shh!!!

 

Don't give them any ideas.

[inari]

On paper, absolutely everything is in our favor. I genuinely believe we'll take this series in four games.

[David]

I like our chances a lot. I'm calling a sweep.

 

You have far more October optimism than I.

 

I'm with him. AZ has done it on smoke and mirrors. Teams with insanely lucky looking run differentials always try to find excuses or reasons as to why they're the exception (or their fans do, at least) to the rule, and why their 90 win team that has given up 30 more runs than they've scored is as good as their record, but I'm not buying it.

 

I look at AZ and I see one great pitcher. A decent team, but I don't fear them for one second. If we can't handle them, oh well. The playoffs are a crapshoot, but I can't think of a better opponent to be matched up with in a playoff series... (except maybe the 06 Cardinals, and we all saw how that worked out, heh)...

 

 

I'm not quite as optimistic as Mizzou. I see Cubs in 4, maybe 5 if some bounces don't go our way. But I see no excuse for this team not to go in there and handle the D'Backs.

[David]

I like our chances a lot. I'm calling a sweep.

 

How many months of premium are you willing to bet on that?

 

That reminds me... illiniguy owes me $50 from a game thread bet a few weeks back, since the Cubs took the division.

 

I'd be willing to go double or nothing on a playoff series, though. ;) Might as well let it ride and keep that mojo going.

[Derwood]

the run differential thing is a little overblown. the D-Backs lost 18 games by 5 or more runs (giving up 10+ runs in 12 of them) while winning by 5 or more 18 times, but scoring 10+ just 8 times.

[Mizzou]

I like our chances a lot. I'm calling a sweep.

 

How many months of premium are you willing to bet on that?

None. I'm not really interested in making bets this postseason, I just want to enjoy the ride.

 

After looking at the Diamondbacks roster and the pitching matchups, how can you not see a sweep? The only game that we might not win is the first one, just because Webb is so good. But with the way Sori, Lee, and Ramirez are hitting, I think we'll take that one too. We should easily win game two with Lilly going against Davis. And Livan Hernandez just isn't a good pitcher at all, so if Rich has his curveball going on Saturday, that should be an easy victory. I could be wrong, maybe it will take four games to win the series, but I think we're going to sweep. The DBacks just aren't that good.

[UMFan83]

But if a team can play 162 games, win 90 of them and have a run differential of -30, why can't they pull off that same magic for 5 games in the playoffs?

 

DBacks record by month:

 

April: 16-11

May: 16-12

June: 14-13

July: 12-13

August: 16-12

September: 16-11

 

That's pretty consistant baseball. For awhile in June and July they had some big losing and winning streaks, but overall, this is not a team that started out strong and held on with .500 ball, nor is this a team that started off poorly and saved their best baseball until the end. This is a team that played good baseball every month of the season pretty much.

[UMFan83]

I like our chances a lot. I'm calling a sweep.

 

How many months of premium are you willing to bet on that?

None. I'm not really interested in making bets this postseason, I just want to enjoy the ride.

 

After looking at the Diamondbacks roster and the pitching matchups, how can you not see a sweep? The only game that we might not win is the first one, just because Webb is so good. But with the way Sori, Lee, and Ramirez are hitting, I think we'll take that one too. We should easily win game two with Lilly going against Davis. And Livan Hernandez just isn't a good pitcher at all, so if Rich has his curveball going on Saturday, that should be an easy victory. I could be wrong, maybe it will take four games to win the series, but I think we're going to sweep. The DBacks just aren't that good.

 

Sori, Lee and Ramirez are going to ground out a lot against Webb. They can't really hurt him consistantly. The only way we win game 1 is if we see good Z and we can get a couple of timely grounders that find holes.

 

We beat Webb this year at Wrigley (against Marquis no less!), but watching that game, he was dominating us. We had a lot of dinky hits, for instance Jacque Jones who blooped a opposite field hit on a pitch he was looking to hit to right.

 

Then again, at this point of the season, Mike Fontenot was our third hitter as Ramirez was injured.