2007 Cubs Minor League Wrap-Up

[Guest]

Who do you think will be the #1 overall prospect in this organization come this time next year?

 

Josh Vitters seems the obvious choice.

 

I think it could easily be Jeff Samardzija, Robert Hernandez or Chris Huseby.

Or Colvin or Donaldson.

[Outshined_One]

Who do you think will be the #1 overall prospect in this organization come this time next year?

 

Josh Vitters seems the obvious choice.

 

I think it could easily be Jeff Samardzija, Robert Hernandez or Chris Huseby.

 

Why not add every other Cubs prospect while you're at it? :P

[Guest]

Who do you think will be the #1 overall prospect in this organization come this time next year?

 

Josh Vitters seems the obvious choice.

 

I think it could easily be Jeff Samardzija, Robert Hernandez or Chris Huseby.

 

Why not add every other Cubs prospect while you're at it? :P

I doubt it will be Samardzija - if he's doing well enough to be the #1 prospect, I think he'll lose his eligibility by the end of the year.

[Guest]

True enough, the same can be said for Colvin.

 

I'll say Vitters.

[Guest]

True enough, the same can be said for Colvin.

 

I'll say Vitters.

That's the easy pick and would be my first choice. Since Vitters is already taken, though, I'll go with Hernandez. Though I'm kinda hoping Donaldson will be the guy.

[Outshined_One]

I doubt it will be Samardzija - if he's doing well enough to be the #1 prospect, I think he'll lose his eligibility by the end of the year.

 

The question will be how the Cubs decide to bring him along. I seem to recall a fair number of people thought he would become the next Cubs closer when he was drafted, based on his stuff. If he's doing well enough as a starter, I don't see the Cubs taking that route with him next season unless they either want to develop him ala Santana (unlikely) or they get desperate for a bullpen arm (likely).

 

If he's a starter...who would he replace? Yeah, injuries and ineffectiveness happen, but it seems like the rotation is pretty much set for next season (which is a bizarre change from the past few years).

 

I don't know, this offseason is going to be interesting from that perspective. Between Samardzija, Mateo, Gallagher, Hart, Wells, Veal, Holliman, Berg, and Atkins, there are a bunch of starting pitching prospects that could be useful trade bait. Granted, the talent level of that group isn't as good as it has been in the past, but it'd still be enough to catch the eyes of some teams.

 

Hell, maybe Hendry will actually trade three pitching prospects for something useful this time around!

[SweetZombieJesus]

Between Samardzija,could be useful trade bait.

 

Uh, he can't no trade clause

[Guest]

And Berg could be swallowed up in the Rule 5 draft.

[rawaction]

I think Samardzija will be the #1 guy this time next year. I don't really see him getting enough innings next year to lose his eligibility requirements, assuming the Cubs are healthy and the SP remains pretty similar.

 

I am intrigued by the SP depth in the system. Although, they may not be top flight arms, the Cubs have a good 6-7 guys that could start some games next year if needed, not to mention if Prior returns to anywhere close to form. This may be for another thread, but if 2-3 of these arms can't be packaged for a good player, it opens up the door to trade Marshall or for a great player, Hill. The Cubs could mix and match in the 5th starter's spot with the depth they have knocking on the door of the majors. Hopefully, the hit in production from the rotation can be picked up by Zambrano showing up all season and by the bat(s), the Cubs can pick up.

[Outshined_One]

Between Samardzija,could be useful trade bait.

 

Uh, he can't no trade clause

 

Ahhhhhhhhhhhh, right right. Well, my point remains, in any case.

[wvcbxl]

I've heard rumors that if he hadn't had the Italian team commitment, Maestri would have been the one to go to AA for the playoffs, not Ceda.

 

That would have been logical: he was really on a roll the last weeks of the season.

I still think he'll go to Daytona to start the 2008 season though.

[CubFanPhilly]

I am intrigued by the SP depth in the system. Although, they may not be top flight arms, the Cubs have a good 6-7 guys that could start some games next year if needed, not to mention if Prior returns to anywhere close to form. This may be for another thread, but if 2-3 of these arms can't be packaged for a good player, it opens up the door to trade Marshall or for a great player, Hill. The Cubs could mix and match in the 5th starter's spot with the depth they have knocking on the door of the majors. Hopefully, the hit in production from the rotation can be picked up by Zambrano showing up all season and by the bat(s), the Cubs can pick up.

 

I agree. And my guess is that Marshall will be heading somewhere for a bat and the Cubs will fill the 5th starter job among Gallagher/Mateo/Prior/et. al., with the expectation that Samardzija could be brought up sometime during the season.

[Guest]

I've heard rumors that if he hadn't had the Italian team commitment, Maestri would have been the one to go to AA for the playoffs, not Ceda.

 

That would have been logical: he was really on a roll the last weeks of the season.

I still think he'll go to Daytona to start the 2008 season though.

 

Yeah, I agree. I think he and Papelbon will get quick promotions to Tennessee if they perform anywhere like they did this season in the pen.

[the splendid splinter]

I've heard rumors that if he hadn't had the Italian team commitment, Maestri would have been the one to go to AA for the playoffs, not Ceda.

 

That would have been logical: he was really on a roll the last weeks of the season.

I still think he'll go to Daytona to start the 2008 season though.

 

Yeah, I agree. I think he and Papelbon will get quick promotions to Tennessee if they perform anywhere like they did this season in the pen.

You can throw Lambert in that mix with his curve ball which is a big out pitch for him.

[cubweiser03]

Soto:

It goes without say that Soto had an awesome year. Sure he has now repeated AAA 3 times but its not like hes 27 doing this. I thought last year he had a pretty good year at 23YO, this year he added the power. Legit.

 

Colvin:

If it wasnt for his 1st round pick auro i dont think he would be much of a prospect. He's not much of one in my book. As pointed out previously his BB/K ratio is Terrible. Bad BB/K ratios are a red flag, his is the red flag with the black square in the middle. I understand he has the 'tools' and i have yet to see him play but man those tools better start to exhibit themselves very quickly.

 

Donaldson:

Im not sure how much of a prospect this kid is but man he put up some great #s at Boise. Unlike Colvin this kid has great BB/K ratio (37/34) AND hits for average. Alright yes Donaldson is the same age as Colvin and is 21YO in Boise so its not like hes 18/19. His ISOD of .124 is great, but its another to do it with a batting average of .346, thats really awesome. Nice pop in the bat too.

 

Ceda:

Peoria=46IP/14H. What the hell is that?!

66ks too.

 

Gallagher:

Another good year in the minors, especially Iowa. Great HR/IP ratio. Sure he struggled in MLB but after seeing him pitch i like his fastball and really like his tight/hard curve.

 

Donaldson is 21 in short-season ball. Colvin is 21 in AA, 3 levels ahead. Colvin held his own against monumentally better competition. I dont' see how you can say he's a non-prospect but Donaldson is great because of similar numbers (wihtout the walks) at Boise as Colvin.

 

Also, you can't mention Ceda without the walks. If those numbers you listed were the whole story, everyone in baseball would be talking about him.

 

Donaldson at 21 in Boise

.346/.470/.605 35/37

Colvin at 20 in Boise

.268/.313/.483 17/55

 

Colvin did pretty well in Daytona this year but I wouldnt say what he did in AA was good. So really Colvin is a year younger and 1+/2 levels ahead of him. Its hard to get excited about him with his numbers. Again maybe he has all the tools that is talked about and i might like him better than what i see on paper.

 

Ceda-Yeah yah i left out the BB's :) Yes if his BB were good he would be talked about everywhere. I was pointing out the stats that make him 'interesting'. If he had good BB/IP ratio, yeah he'd be in the 'exciting' category. He's 20 and has 'stuff' stats, I think that makes him an interesting prospect.

[Guest]

Anyone have a top 10 list done?

[karenmac]

OK, so I couldn't get it down to 10, but did get it down to 11. I didn't include Soto, as I think he'll either stick with the big league club next year or get traded. My thoughts (not in any order)

- Petrick

- Gallagher

- Hart

- Pignatiello

- Fuld

- Holliman

- Ceda

- Lansford

- Roquet

- Barney

- Donaldson

 

I left 3 guys off that I thought about and didn't include. They were:

Patterson - think that Fontenot and DeRosa are great fits at the big league level at 2B. I'm not sure that he's good enough in the outfield. I haven't seen him play outfield, but we seem to have several "natural" outfielders that will be better.

 

Colvin - I think Fuld is better. Granted I have much love for Sam, but have a hard time getting past Colvin's bad BB/K ratio. Over 2007 at AA, Fuld was a little lower in RBI, but he was the lead-off hitter, so not a big shock that he'd have fewer. On the other hand, he had 41 walks and 38 strikeouts over 335 ABs versus Colvin having 5 walks and 54 strikeouts over 246.

 

Atkins - until he went to AA, he would have absolutely made my list. After struggling in TN, though, I'm wondering how good he'll be. I know it was the end of the season, so perhaps it was just fatigue, but I'm a little worried at how well he'll continue to do. He's a great guy but am reserving judgement until Spring Training next year.

 

Just my 2 cents to keep the conversation going!

[Mephistopheles]

Im going to rate them on a 0-100 scale. 100 being awesome, an elite prospect. A 90 being a top 100 guys. A 80 being a top 200 guy and so on. Donaldson is growing on me. Hes about the only thing that went right in June, although I didnt like it at the time. If he would be a MLB C he'd be a 90+ right now.

 

96 Eric Patterson

94 Geovany Soto

93 Donald Veal

92 Sean Gallagher

90 Josh Vitters

88 Tyler Colvin

88 Chris Huseby

87 Josh Donaldson

80 Brian Dopirak

78 Jeff Golden Boy

78 Kyler Burke

77 Mitch Atkins

76 Ryan Harvey

75 Tony Thomas

75 Robert Hernandez

75 Alex Maestri

75 Jose Ceda

75 Larry Suarez

75 Cedric Redmond

75 Jake Renshaw

 

 

I dont know much about Carlos Perez, but he looks fairly promising. Take these as a starting point, not absolute. I did them from memory without thinking. Is there someone I forgot? Rocquet doesn't count. As you can tell 75 became a catch all rating for guys who have decent potential and the low minors.

[Outshined_One]

Still a believer in Dopirak, eh?

[Mephistopheles]

not really.

[badnews]

Im going to rate them on a 0-100 scale. 100 being awesome, an elite prospect. A 90 being a top 100 guys. A 80 being a top 200 guy and so on. Donaldson is growing on me. Hes about the only thing that went right in June, although I didnt like it at the time. If he would be a MLB C he'd be a 90+ right now.

 

96 Eric Patterson

94 Geovany Soto

93 Donald Veal

92 Sean Gallagher

90 Josh Vitters

88 Tyler Colvin

88 Chris Huseby

87 Josh Donaldson

80 Brian Dopirak

78 Jeff Golden Boy

78 Kyler Burke

77 Mitch Atkins

76 Ryan Harvey

75 Tony Thomas

75 Robert Hernandez

75 Alex Maestri

75 Jose Ceda

75 Larry Suarez

75 Cedric Redmond

75 Jake Renshaw

 

 

I dont know much about Carlos Perez, but he looks fairly promising. Take these as a starting point, not absolute. I did them from memory without thinking. Is there someone I forgot? Rocquet doesn't count. As you can tell 75 became a catch all rating for guys who have decent potential and the low minors.

 

Often I find myself agreeing with you, not this time. You've overrated a lot of guys who wouldn't be close to making a Top 10 list. If Eric Patterson is a 94, where would, I don't know, Cameron Maybin or David Price be? Eric Patterson had a very disappointing year. In fact I doubt if there's anyone on this forum more down on Eric Patterson than me. Every time I saw him, he showed about the same amount of discipline and plate recognition as Corey. He's got an ugly swing, he uses it to swing at ugly pitches, and his numbers for the year and league are disappointing to the extreme and don't look much better than Buck Coats's. I have zero confidence in Eric Patterson.

 

I'll take Tony Thomas over Ryan Harvey.

 

Tyler Colvin won't even come close to making a Top 100 list. On most other clubs, Colvin would be like their 9th best prospect or lower, like Jordan Schaefer was on the Braves before they traded their best prospects for Teixeira.

 

I don't care for Chris Huseby. He's another one of Jim Hendry's "gut feeling" picks that won't get anywhere. Surprise, surprise, he's from Florida. If you're not from Florida or Virginia or Notre Dame, the Cubs aren't interested. They should've taken Huseby's money and spent it on Matt Latos, Alex White, Jordan Walden, or Charles Brewer.

 

Jeff Samardzija is a Hendry pick through and through - he's 6'6, righthanded, comes from Notre Dame, he's Grant Johnson's more talented twin brother. I'm not surprised the Cubs' organization and staff continues to say great things about him - they've done nothing but lie so far, when he was drafted they kept putting out releases about his 98 mph fastball, I can tell you what, it's not 98, not close.

 

How about this exercise, we rank where we think the Cubs' farm system sits in terms of talent among the 30 teams?

 

I'll have to put us at #25. We're not very good.

 

I think Sam Fuld has a shot at being a Reggie Willits type of player.

 

I'm not saying they have to go on a Top 10 Cubs prospects list, but I'm surprised no one mentioned Kyle Reynolds or Jayson Ruhlman as at least guys to keep an eye on.

[badnews]

Saying that Colvin's strikeouts won't hurt him because Ryan Howard's and Nick Swisher's don't hurt them is preposterous. Nick Swisher isn't as great as people think, and anyway Nick Swisher hit for better power than Colvin in the minors, and he took more walks, same with Howard. I've seen too many guys with the 3 or 4:1 K/BB ratio and few other skills flame out to think anything good about Colvin.

 

I think the Jacque Jones comparison is a good one.

 

Someone in this topic said that "everyone" says Colvin is "above average" in center field, but I'm afraid I've never read the works of Mr. Everyone.

 

Whenever I ask people why such a studly center fielder would be playing left field at college, they get this blank look on their face, then point up at the sky and say "It's the Goodyear Blimp" before running off.

 

Anyone who can play center field at the major league level can out-defend a center fielder or a right fielder at the college level.

[CubColtPacer]

Saying that Colvin's strikeouts won't hurt him because Ryan Howard's and Nick Swisher's don't hurt them is preposterous. Nick Swisher isn't as great as people think, and anyway Nick Swisher hit for better power than Colvin in the minors, and he took more walks, same with Howard. I've seen too many guys with the 3 or 4:1 K/BB ratio and few other skills flame out to think anything good about Colvin.

 

I think the Jacque Jones comparison is a good one.

 

Someone in this topic said that "everyone" says Colvin is "above average" in center field, but I'm afraid I've never read the works of Mr. Everyone.

Whenever I ask people why such a studly center fielder would be playing left field at college, they get this blank look on their face, then point up at the sky and say "It's the Goodyear Blimp" before running off.

 

Anyone who can play center field at the major league level can out-defend a center fielder or a right fielder at the college level.

 

Easy. If you're Clemson, do you stick a player who has never played outfield before in CF? Colvin's been a guy who has reportedly made great strides every year he has played in the OF. Honestly, I have no idea who to believe anymore. I've heard all kinds of reports (there have been no reports that he was terrible in CF, but I've heard everything from will eventually move to a corner to so-so to excellent). I don't think the fact that he played LF at Clemson means that he cannot play CF though because he was still very new to the outfield while he was at Clemson.

 

As for top 100 prospects, my guess is that Colvin will be in most of them. He'll be down pretty far (80's or 90's) but he'll be there. Colvin will also be in the top 3 of about every Cubs prospect list. I can't back that up though, so that's just my opinion and I guess we'll have to wait and see on that.

[Outshined_One]

Saying that Colvin's strikeouts won't hurt him because Ryan Howard's and Nick Swisher's don't hurt them is preposterous. Nick Swisher isn't as great as people think, and anyway Nick Swisher hit for better power than Colvin in the minors, and he took more walks, same with Howard. I've seen too many guys with the 3 or 4:1 K/BB ratio and few other skills flame out to think anything good about Colvin.

 

Um...re-read my post.

 

Strikeouts are outs. Plain and simple. Focusing on them as a potential reason for why a prospect is going to flame out is, in my opinion, a mistake. Look at the other plays I mentioned and look at how much they strike out compared to Colvin. Swisher and Howard are two examples I randomly produced as examples of productive guys who strike out a ton and yet are very good players. Heck, you can look around baseball at the number of good players who rack up 100+ strikeouts a season.

 

Strikeouts have been built up as something which hitters must eliminate at all costs in baseball. It's as if people treat them like they're some sort of barrier to being a good ball player. In reality, you'll have a really hard time finding productive hitters in baseball who don't strike out more than 100 times in a season. In all likelihood, you're going to be more likely to find a Juan Pierre than an Albert Pujols.

 

Your bolded point is exactly the reason I was getting at. If Colvin ends up busting, it'll be because he has yet to show the ability to draw walks with any consistency. It won't be because he strikes out over 100 times in a season. That's why I'm saying people shouldn't be raising such an incredible fuss over his strikeout numbers. The same holds true for guys like Harvey and Dopirak.

[badnews]

Strikeouts are not just outs. If you have problems making contact at the minor league level, then you'll often be in trouble at the major league level. Most of the prospects in this regard fool people because they hold an abnormally high BABIP. Citing Swisher and Howard doesn't make sense to me in Colvin's case because he doesn't have the assets he does. And there's a lot more strikeout kings you can cite who don't make it. If a guy strikes out a lot in the minors it's going to hold his batting average down in most cases. This is why Chris B. Young of the Diamondbacks drew so many Mike Cameron comps. I don't see how anyone can ignore strikeouts.

 

If Colvin doesn't hit for great power, the strikeouts keep his average down, he's an okay but not great basestealer, he doesn't take walks, what's the appeal here?