Jacque Jones' first half = fluke

[Warren Brusstar]

GRCubsFan wrote:

 

3. Well, his OPS against RHP last year was about 60 points or so about his career average. His OPS against RHP in 3 months this season is 200 points below is career average. Is 200 PAs a big sample? Not really. But it does have some relevance to predicting immediate future performance (unlike 8 ABs, which has near 0 relevance). That fact, coupled with the fact that he's followed good years with bad years in the past leads me to conclude that there's a good chance he won't have an OPS of .825 against RHP in the 2nd half.

 

 

Jones' second half:

 

.364/.424/.559

 

viewtopic.php?t=42186&postdays=0&postorder=asc&start=120

[rocket]

he's not as awful as he was in the 1st half and he's not as good as he is so far this half.

[Roast]

he's not as awful as he was in the 1st half and he's not as good as he is so far this half.

 

This pretty much sums it up, IMO

[CubmanPi]

Does he have enough of a pattern yet where we can say that there really hasn't been much of a fluke at all this year, and that he's just a crappy first half player and a good second half player whose season numbers average out as being mild/decent? I know we had all pretty much resigned ourselves to DLee being a slow starter when he got here. Kojock just takes half a season, not a fourth of one, to kick it into gear.

 

/statistically baseless statements

[Warren Brusstar]

he's not as awful as he was in the 1st half and he's not as good as he is so far this half.

 

Agreed. His .827 career OPS v. RHP is an accurate reflection of his ability. And as a CF, that's a significant asset.

 

By comparison, lifetime OPS v. RHP:

 

Carlos Beltran - .840

Mike Cameron .757

Johnny Damon .797

Andruw Jones .831

Vernon Wells .779

Torii Hunter .778

Nick Swisher .778

 

Against RHP, he's better than Vernon Wells, Torii Hunter, Mike Cameron, and Johnny Damon, and basically the equivalent of Carlos Beltran and Andruw Jones.

[Tracer Bullet]

I stand by the comment. I didn't say it wouldn't happen and I didn't say he'd maintain his OPS that was .200 points below his career average. At the time, there wasn't a good chance that he would OPS .825 in the 2nd half. The fact that something happened doesn't mean that it was either likely to happen or that it was the result of a good decision. Might have been a good decision, might have been blind luck.

 

BTW - So the solution to the crack down on bumping old threads is to cut posts out of multiple-page threads in an attempt to call out other posters? I think I'd rather allow posters to bump a month-old thread than cut one paragraph from a post you disagreed with and create a new thread.

[Yestheydo]

 

Against RHP, he's better than Vernon Wells, Torii Hunter, Mike Cameron, and Johnny Damon, and basically the equivalent of Carlos Beltran and Andruw Jones.

 

Say, has anyone noticed that with his 4-for-5 today --all against lefties-- he's actually now been better against lefties than righties this year?

 

.300 .375 .420 vs lhp

 

.272 .329 .397 vs rhp

 

Trade Pie now!!! (I swear I'm joking). But Jones looks like a pretty good stopgap after all.

[TruffleShuffle]

jock is a horrible hitter versus LHP, his splits this year are a complete fluke. He has improved, but he still hasn't shown much power, so i'm not optimistic about him the rest of this year, or next year for that matter.

[Cynosure]

Oh come on, Jones and Kendall suck! Ask half of this board. I am so glad they are both producing now, wish people would have given them more of a chance.

[TruffleShuffle]

Oh come on, Jones and Kendall suck! Ask half of this board. I am so glad they are both producing now, wish people would have given them more of a chance.

 

I gave jones plenty of chances, and at this point he's the best option that the cubs have in CF. But that's saying more about the condition of their CF situation than about jock. He was fine at 2006 production, but this year he's been lousy.

[Yestheydo]

Oh come on, Jones and Kendall suck! Ask half of this board. I am so glad they are both producing now, wish people would have given them more of a chance.

 

I gave jones plenty of chances, and at this point he's the best option that the cubs have in CF. But that's saying more about the condition of their CF situation than about jock. He was fine at 2006 production, but this year he's been lousy.

 

He's always been a slow starter who needs to play every day to be effective. We knew this but couldn't afford to play him every day early on when there were other options. He was simply a victim of Lou's equal opportunity system. In CF, he really isn't bad at all. Although, yeah, his lefty splits look like a total fluke right now.

[soapy]

His second half is every bit the fluke his first half was. Having said that, I hope he keeps it up.

 

 

Also, I agree with GRCubsFan on the whole quoting thing. Weird way to start a thread. Could have easily just said "a lot of people doubted Jones" with out calling someone out and almost instigating a fight.

[CubColtPacer]

Oh come on, Jones and Kendall suck! Ask half of this board. I am so glad they are both producing now, wish people would have given them more of a chance.

 

I gave jones plenty of chances, and at this point he's the best option that the cubs have in CF. But that's saying more about the condition of their CF situation than about jock. He was fine at 2006 production, but this year he's been lousy.

 

If Jones keeps his hot streak up for even another week or two, he might be getting closer to 2006 production then you think. He has raised his season OPS 94 points in August-that's amazing this far into the season.

 

To be worth 5 million as a CF, he probably would only need to raise that OPS 25-30 points more. If he can do that by the end of the season, he actually would be worth his contract this season-something I didn't think would be possible whatsoever a month or two ago.

[Exile on Waveland]

Oh come on, Jones and Kendall suck! Ask half of this board. I am so glad they are both producing now, wish people would have given them more of a chance.

 

I gave jones plenty of chances, and at this point he's the best option that the cubs have in CF. But that's saying more about the condition of their CF situation than about jock. He was fine at 2006 production, but this year he's been lousy.

 

Jones may have been given plenty of chances, though he is certainly producing now. He's not great and it didn't help that he was Hendry's big free agent acquisition when the team was desperate for an offensive stud. Honestly, that may be Jones's greatest sin -- and it's not his fault. Or, more cynically, his greatest sin is simply being average.

 

However, Kendall was basically given no chance at all. Even at this point, people speak as if catcher is a huge hole offensively. Now, I'm not sure how much I trust Kendall to continue producing -- obviously he won't at this rate -- but I think he's earned kudos thus far.

[Warren Brusstar]

I stand by the comment. I didn't say it wouldn't happen and I didn't say he'd maintain his OPS that was .200 points below his career average. At the time, there wasn't a good chance that he would OPS .825 in the 2nd half. The fact that something happened doesn't mean that it was either likely to happen or that it was the result of a good decision. Might have been a good decision, might have been blind luck.

 

BTW - So the solution to the crack down on bumping old threads is to cut posts out of multiple-page threads in an attempt to call out other posters? I think I'd rather allow posters to bump a month-old thread than cut one paragraph from a post you disagreed with and create a new thread.

 

You were wrong then and -- by failing to offer a mea culpa -- you look foolish now.

 

In his career, Jones has posted the following seasonal OPSes against RHP:

 

.817

.794

.952

.834

.775

.814

.886

 

It was pretty clear at the All-Star break that his .625 OPS v. RHP was a fluke. It was 150 points less than his previous career worst. So, no, there was a good chance he would OPS at or near his career OPS v. RHP in the second half.

[CubinNY]

There is still a lot of baseball to be played. I wouldn't pat myself on the back just yet.

[SouthSideRyan]

As amazing as it sounds. After next year, Jones will have probably been a bargain at his contract. Still doesn't mean it was the right move to make, but factors(mostly the market explosion alogn with his move to CF) have made him a value.

[Tracer Bullet]

I stand by the comment. I didn't say it wouldn't happen and I didn't say he'd maintain his OPS that was .200 points below his career average. At the time, there wasn't a good chance that he would OPS .825 in the 2nd half. The fact that something happened doesn't mean that it was either likely to happen or that it was the result of a good decision. Might have been a good decision, might have been blind luck.

 

BTW - So the solution to the crack down on bumping old threads is to cut posts out of multiple-page threads in an attempt to call out other posters? I think I'd rather allow posters to bump a month-old thread than cut one paragraph from a post you disagreed with and create a new thread.

 

You were wrong then and -- by failing to offer a mea culpa -- you look foolish now.

 

Your post is an a--hole

[Elrhino]

I shudder to think where the Cubs would be without Jacques' 2nd half.

[TruffleShuffle]

I shudder to think where the Cubs would be without Jacques' 2nd half.

 

I also wonder where they'd be if he hadn't crapped the bed the entire first half.