Look who is on top.

[Mephistopheles]

Like I, and some others, said in May. The Brewers were overachieving and the Cubs underachieving. We said it was not big deal and everything was fine. Now it appears to be fine.

 

http://www.baseballprospectus.com/statistics/standings.php

 

Team             W    L       RS   RA  W1   L1     EQR EQRA  W2   L2    AEQR AEQRA W3   L3      D1    D2    D3
Cubs             46.  43.    411  371 48.7 40.3    410  359 49.9 39.1    393  356 48.5 40.5    -2.7  -3.9  -2.5
Brewers          50.  40.    438  399 48.9 41.1    444  388 50.6 39.4    428  390 49.0 41.0     1.1  -0.6   1.0
Reds             37.  54.    429  463 42.1 48.9    416  437 43.4 47.6    400  439 41.6 49.4    -5.1  -6.4  -4.6
Cardinals        40.  47.    375  455 35.6 51.5    362  411 38.4 48.6    357  415 37.5 49.5     4.4   1.6   2.5
Astros           39.  52.    405  456 40.4 50.7    407  473 39.0 52.0    398  475 37.9 53.1    -1.4   0.0   1.1
Pirates          40.  50.    372  441 37.9 52.2    356  445 35.7 54.3    352  444 35.4 54.6     2.1   4.3   4.6

 

Also, as of right now, we're a coin flip away from the playoffs. fifty-fifty and it's only going to improve.

[Magnetic Curses]

Like I, and some others, said in May. The Brewers were overachieving and the Cubs underachieving. We said it was not big deal and everything was fine. Now it appears to be fine.

 

http://www.baseballprospectus.com/statistics/standings.php

 

Team             W    L       RS   RA  W1   L1     EQR EQRA  W2   L2    AEQR AEQRA W3   L3      D1    D2    D3
Cubs             46.  43.    411  371 48.7 40.3    410  359 49.9 39.1    393  356 48.5 40.5    -2.7  -3.9  -2.5
Brewers          50.  40.    438  399 48.9 41.1    444  388 50.6 39.4    428  390 49.0 41.0     1.1  -0.6   1.0
Reds             37.  54.    429  463 42.1 48.9    416  437 43.4 47.6    400  439 41.6 49.4    -5.1  -6.4  -4.6
Cardinals        40.  47.    375  455 35.6 51.5    362  411 38.4 48.6    357  415 37.5 49.5     4.4   1.6   2.5
Astros           39.  52.    405  456 40.4 50.7    407  473 39.0 52.0    398  475 37.9 53.1    -1.4   0.0   1.1
Pirates          40.  50.    372  441 37.9 52.2    356  445 35.7 54.3    352  444 35.4 54.6     2.1   4.3   4.6

 

Also, as of right now, we're a coin flip away from the playoffs. fifty-fifty and it's only going to improve.

 

i have to admit that i was a bit worried in may. they ARE the cubs, most times they just don't follow the rules.

 

now i think the pythagorean numbers show that this recent run of success isn't a fluke.

[vance_the_cubs_fan]

I'm pleased.

[Ender]

I think pythagorean records are pretty flawed in general. I mean you get some teams 6th best starter, you knock him out early then pound on their MR's and out score them 16-3 and that is supposed to somehow offset 6 close losses later in the year?

 

Early in the year the Cubs lost just about every close game and it was pretty obvious that it was a fluke so you should have expected them to turn things around some. Now it seems like they are winning every single close game so its evening out.

 

I look at the Cubs and Brewers and see two teams that are good enough to be over .500 but not good enough to win the NL West or NL east divisions. They are both second tier teams and one of them is going to eek out a division championship largely because of how weak the division is where they most likely would be a 2nd or 3rd place team in the other divisions.

 

I do think this is a two horse race though, I don't think the Cardinals will make a run and the Astros just look bad lately. The Reds and Pirates were never in it in the first place.

[Magnetic Curses]

I think pythagorean records are pretty flawed in general. I mean you get some teams 6th best starter, you knock him out early then pound on their MR's and out score them 16-3 and that is supposed to somehow offset 6 close losses later in the year?

 

yes, but this goes pretty much the same with every team over 162 games. i think pythagorean win expectancy is pretty good at sifting skill from luck.

[mul21]

My one worry is that the Cardinals get Edmonds, Carpenter, and Eckstein back and they start playing well. Then Pujols and Rolen remember that they are perrennial all stars and start crushing the ball and end up around career norms for the season. That's my only worry there.

 

The Brewers are possibly still a little young to handle the pressure that goes with the playoff race, but they definitely have the talent to get it done in the not so fantastic NL Central

[Rob]

My one worry is that the Cardinals get Edmonds, Carpenter, and Eckstein back and they start playing well. Then Pujols and Rolen remember that they are perrennial all stars and start crushing the ball and end up around career norms for the season. That's my only worry there.

 

The Brewers are possibly still a little young to handle the pressure that goes with the playoff race, but they definitely have the talent to get it done in the not so fantastic NL Central

 

As of this morning, BP's playoff odds report suggests that the Cards have a .97090% chance of making the playoffs. If you look at the PECOTA-adjusted report, that number falls to .82385%.

[Mephistopheles]

to be worried about the cardinals is to be stupid

[CyHawk_Cub]

to be worried about the cardinals is to be stupid

 

Irrational perhaps at least...it's just the psyche of the average Cubs fan to worry about the Cardinals. Even though my rational side tells me the Cards are no real threat, I won't totally dismiss them until they're mathematically eliminated.

[TruffleShuffle]

to be worried about the cardinals is to be stupid

 

to post this is to be an a-hole

[inari]

I'm certainly not worried about the Cardinals passing us, but they're worth worrying about considering how often we play them in the second half. If they return to respectability, the could sneak up on us in some games and take critical series.

[Chocolate Milk]

Be careful. You're getting dangerously close to becoming a member of the "luck brigade."

 

Apparently, continuously outscoring your opponents will lead to victories. Also, it seems that the Cubs aren't inherently bad at one run games but rather were just on the negative side of some variance.

[Ender]

Its a hard thing to read, the Cubs bullpen has been much better lately which has a lot to do with the better record in close games. Of course the Cubs bullpen was underperforming in general early in the year so it was expected that they improve.

[jjgman21]

My one worry is that the Cardinals get Edmonds, Carpenter, and Eckstein back and they start playing well. Then Pujols and Rolen remember that they are perrennial all stars and start crushing the ball and end up around career norms for the season. That's my only worry there.

 

The Brewers are possibly still a little young to handle the pressure that goes with the playoff race, but they definitely have the talent to get it done in the not so fantastic NL Central

 

As of this morning, BP's playoff odds report suggests that the Cards have a .97090% chance of making the playoffs. If you look at the PECOTA-adjusted report, that number falls to .82385%.

 

 

and all of baseball journalism is reporting them as ready to pounce.

[OleMissCub]

Could someone please explain what the graph says to someone like myself who is numbers-phobic.

[Sarcastic]

Could someone please explain what the graph says to someone like myself who is numbers-phobic.

If you mean the table, it says that based on the Cubs run differential, thier expected record leads the division.

[98navigator]

I can understand why some people gave up on this team but, I said in May that the Cubs were underachieving and I've always thought that they would turn it around (although, I thought it would be more gradual than dramatic).

 

The Cubs current 25-12 stretch has almost negated the Brewers 24-10 streak earlier in the year. Plus, after playing a tougher first half schedule than the Brewers, the Cubs will now be aided by the easiest second half schedule in MLB (at least on paper).

 

I will be surprised if they don't win the division.

 

BTW, I'm not anymore concerned about the Cardinals than any other team behind the Cubs in the division. IMO, they have too many "if" scenarios to be taken seriously at this point. If they start winning with consistency, and gaining ground, it will be time to take notice.

[snoodmonger]

Didn't carp just have a setback anyway? StL is toast, though we play them enough where they have a chance to impact us.

[Rob]

My one worry is that the Cardinals get Edmonds, Carpenter, and Eckstein back and they start playing well. Then Pujols and Rolen remember that they are perrennial all stars and start crushing the ball and end up around career norms for the season. That's my only worry there.

 

The Brewers are possibly still a little young to handle the pressure that goes with the playoff race, but they definitely have the talent to get it done in the not so fantastic NL Central

 

As of this morning, BP's playoff odds report suggests that the Cards have a .97090% chance of making the playoffs. If you look at the PECOTA-adjusted report, that number falls to .82385%.

 

 

and all of baseball journalism is reporting them as ready to pounce.

 

These are the same people who thought Howard was the NL MVP and Morneau was the AL MVP last year... when he was only the third best player on his own team. Bruce Miles and a few choice others aside, baseball journalists know less than the people they're reporting to.