Do the Cubs have a chance?

[TruffleShuffle]

Before today's game, the BP postseason odds report put the Cubs at 32.5% to win the division and 19.1% to win the wild card, for an overall 51.66% chance at the playoffs! The wild card chance has made a big jump the past few days, as the Cubs trail only the Dodgers/Padres. Average wins is now 88.6.

 

ELO-adjusted chance was 37.4%

 

PECOTA-adjusted chance is 53%

[Mephistopheles]

dont use elo.

[satxcubfan]

Last week in Vegas, the sports book on the Cubs winning the WS was 5:1

[badger1679666666]

Last week in Vegas, the sports book on the Cubs winning the WS was 5:1

 

I wonder what it was when were 9 under .500

 

:evil:

[NCCubFan]

The main difference between this year and 2003 was that in 2003 nobody in the NL Central was in Wild Card contention; it was division title or bust. This year the Cubs have a legitimate chance at either the division title or the Wild Card. It's nice to have more than one route to the playoffs. :)

[vance_the_cubs_fan]

I will admit, this team has been a lot of fun to watch over the past month.

[David]

The main difference between this year and 2003 was that in 2003 nobody in the NL Central was in Wild Card contention; it was division title or bust. This year the Cubs have a legitimate chance at either the division title or the Wild Card. It's nice to have more than one route to the playoffs. :)

 

Yep. And in 2004, wild card was the only route, despite how insanely talented our team was. Cards were absurd that year.

[CyHawk_Cub]

This team is seriously messing w/ me.. I mean, over the past few years, they got down by an early run, I knew for a fact they were gonna lose. I could accept it & go on w/ my day. Now....hell, they never seem to be out of a game, and better yet, they can overcome some gaffes as well.. Unbelievable; this recent run has been amazing to witness after the horrid start to the year.

[ctcf]

THE SEASON IS ALREADY OVER!!!

 

What ever happened to synergy btw?

[BigSlick]

Chicago Tribune Live has Paul Sullivan, how soon is he going to complain about Aramis ramirez?

[C.C.]

Chicago Tribune Live has Paul Sullivan, how soon is he going to complain about Aramis ramirez?

 

In 4,3,2,....

[BigSlick]

Chicago Tribune Live has Paul Sullivan, how soon is he going to complain about Aramis ramirez?

 

In 4,3,2,....

 

Eeeerrrrggghhhh He's talking about smallball. What smallball are we playing? Scoring half our runs with a home run? Getting singles and doubles?

 

What does smallball even mean? Wasting outs with bunts, bleh.

[USSoccer]

So did he complain about our best player?

[Mizzou]

So did he complain about our best player?

No one ever really complains about Lee, do they?

[Jazz]

So did he complain about our best player?

No one ever really complains about Lee, do they?

 

well no, but he did say our best player, which is Ramirez.

[TruffleShuffle]

Chicago Tribune Live has Paul Sullivan, how soon is he going to complain about Aramis ramirez?

 

In 4,3,2,....

 

Eeeerrrrggghhhh He's talking about smallball. What smallball are we playing? Scoring half our runs with a home run? Getting singles and doubles?

 

What does smallball even mean? Wasting outs with bunts, bleh.

 

We're not playing smallball, we're playing smartball!!!

[Derwood]

Chicago Tribune Live has Paul Sullivan, how soon is he going to complain about Aramis ramirez?

 

In 4,3,2,....

 

Eeeerrrrggghhhh He's talking about smallball. What smallball are we playing? Scoring half our runs with a home run? Getting singles and doubles?

 

What does smallball even mean? Wasting outs with bunts, bleh.

 

We're not playing smallball, we're playing smartball!!!

 

well, pitching well, playing good defense and outscoring your opponents could be considered smart in some circles

[NCCubFan]

2.5 games out in the division and 2 games out of the Wild Card after Friday's action. There's no stopping the Cubs' momentum!

[TruffleShuffle]

Update:

 

Raw: 41.6% chance at division, 14.9% chance at wild card, 56.5% chance overall

 

ELO-adjusted chance was 48.6%

 

PECOTA-adjusted chance is 57.4%

 

 

Teams ranked by chance at making the playoffs:

Mets - 87.4%

Brewers - 69.6%

Dodgers - 68.4%

Cubs - 56.5%

Padres - 43.3%

Braves - 33.4%

Phillies - 19.7%

D'backs - 11.3%

Rockies - 8.4%

Cardinals - 0.9%

:twisted:

[RegulusBlue]

So did he complain about our best player?

No one ever really complains about Lee, do they?

 

well no, but he did say our best player, which is Ramirez.

 

Consult the numbers.

 

You are wrong.

[David]

So did he complain about our best player?

No one ever really complains about Lee, do they?

 

well no, but he did say our best player, which is Ramirez.

 

Consult the numbers.

 

You are wrong.

 

Well, Rammy does have a 3 pt OPS advantage on him...for whatever it's worth (not much).

 

Not even a pt worth debating, they're both incredibly awesome. I view Rammy as more of a threat, right now, though, because of his ability to hit for power.

[jersey cubs fan]

So did he complain about our best player?

No one ever really complains about Lee, do they?

 

well no, but he did say our best player, which is Ramirez.

 

Consult the numbers.

 

You are wrong.

 

Well, Rammy does have a 3 pt OPS advantage on him...for whatever it's worth (not much).

 

Not even a pt worth debating, they're both incredibly awesome. I view Rammy as more of a threat, right now, though, because of his ability to hit for power.

 

Lee has a slight OPS+ advantage. But he's got a significant OBP lead. Lee's advantage was built up in that weird April when everything was falling in though, and the advantage has narrowed.

[Ender]

I'd say the Cubs and Brewers have about equal chance to make the playoffs. They are pretty even teams to begin with and 2 games is not enough to really worry about at this point.

[NCCubFan]

I'd say the Cubs and Brewers have about equal chance to make the playoffs. They are pretty even teams to begin with and 2 games is not enough to really worry about at this point.

I look for them to both make the playoffs, but given how they've been playing lately I think it's more likely the Cubs as division champions and the Brewers as the wildcard. I'll happily take it either way, though.

[TruffleShuffle]

according to the BP odds, how many NL teams have a better chance of making the playoffs than the chicago cobs?

 

 

Answer: one.