2007 Draft Picks who have signed

[JeffH]

Soto is probably going to strike out at an alarming rate in the major leagues, especially at first.

 

He's also likely to get his share of extra base hits and throw out some would-be basestealers.

 

The Cubs should plan on having him share time with some veteran catcher next season.

 

Of course, I expect them to have two veteran catchers next season and trade Soto for virtually nothing.

[TruffleShuffle]

Cameron Maybin has struck out in nearly 30% of his ABs as a professional. I don't know anyone who doesn't have a chubb over him as a prospect. Jack Cust strikes out in nearly a third of his ABs, and he's been a decent hitter at the big league level this year.

 

Soto will strike out... he always has, and this year's strikeout rate is really no different than his K rate in other years in the past. He's still walking at a godo rate (nearly 12% of his PAs) and has added good power (49 XBHs) this year, so it's not as if he's striking out a lot and putting up Juan Pierre numbers in his non-strikeout PAs. As long as he keeps a patient approach at the plate and hits for some pop, I'm not worried that he strikes out at a pretty high clip.

[sporrer17]

That sounds like a contradiction to me. Like saying "I absolutely never eat meat, except beef, chicken, turkey, pork, and fish."

 

 

The difference is that a club is a lot more likely to know whether they'll need pitching as opposed to hitting than they are going to know if they'll need a SS or CF or C or whatever position you can think of.

 

As for whether or not Soto is a good player, I guess that's purely opinion. If you don't want to think he's that good, fine. I don't think he's an all-star or anything like that, but I think he's as good as what we've had catching this year, better defensively, and can hold his own with the bat. Considered the price a decent FA catcher may cost, if we can get the same production out of a 300K dollar rookie, why wouldn't we?? With big money at the corners, LF, and in our starting rotation (well, 3/5ths), we need a few cheap starters like Soto, Murton, Theriot, Pie, etc. Unless you plan on becoming the Yankees, we won't have a 10 mil $ guy at every spot.

[CubColtPacer]

That sounds like a contradiction to me. Like saying "I absolutely never eat meat, except beef, chicken, turkey, pork, and fish."

 

 

The difference is that a club is a lot more likely to know whether they'll need pitching as opposed to hitting than they are going to know if they'll need a SS or CF or C or whatever position you can think of.

 

As for whether or not Soto is a good player, I guess that's purely opinion. If you don't want to think he's that good, fine. I don't think he's an all-star or anything like that, but I think he's as good as what we've had catching this year, better defensively, and can hold his own with the bat. Considered the price a decent FA catcher may cost, if we can get the same production out of a 300K dollar rookie, why wouldn't we?? With big money at the corners, LF, and in our starting rotation (well, 3/5ths), we need a few cheap starters like Soto, Murton, Theriot, Pie, etc. Unless you plan on becoming the Yankees, we won't have a 10 mil $ guy at every spot.

 

Definitely-with the market for catchers that is going to be out there, Soto is a better gamble then any of the catchers on the market. Soto should be the starter next year (or at least split time with another catcher) and then a veteran be brought in as the other catcher, if that's Blanco coming back or somebody else.

[TruffleShuffle]

The Cubs should plan on having him share time with some veteran catcher next season.

 

I don't want them to do this because if the catching situation consists of a veteran and Soto, you know who's going to get most of the playing time (see Cliff Floyd vs Matt Murton). So you'll have Soto play 40 games while some has-been gets most of the action.

[JeffH]

The Cubs should plan on having him share time with some veteran catcher next season.

 

I don't want them to do this because if the catching situation consists of a veteran and Soto, you know who's going to get most of the playing time (see Cliff Floyd vs Matt Murton). So you'll have Soto play 40 games while some has-been gets most of the action.

 

This is always a dilemma.

 

If you plan for Soto (Murton) and Kendall (Floyd), we fear that Kendall (Floyd) will get the majority of the time.

 

If you plan for Soto (Murton) and Koyie Hill (Buck Coats), what happens if Soto (Murton) stinks or gets hurt? Koyie Hill (Buck Coats) is your every day catcher (right fielder).

 

I think it's wise to accumulate the most talent possible and rely on your manager to manage it wisely. If your manager can't or won't do that, get a new manager.

[RammyFanny]

I don't really know where to start with this post. Need plays absolutely no role in drafting players, outside of the position/pitching holes. Obviously if a team is stacked with position players, they should focus on pitching, and vice versa.

 

That sounds like a contradiction to me. Like saying "I absolutely never eat meat, except beef, chicken, turkey, pork, and fish."

 

Oh, and purely by defense and power, Soto has starter potential. Nevermind the fact that he draws walks and has hit for a very good average this season.

 

Who puts that much stock in Iowa stats this year? Even Buck Coats looks good. Buck Coats is not good. Ronny Cedeno looked like A-Rod. I'm really dubious of Soto because he's striking out in over 24% of his ABs. That's poison. We've seen this time and time again, a guy comes up to AAA and hits like a madman but strikes out too much and flops in the big leagues. And then people wonder where guys like Dallas McPherson went wrong. I just don't buy the PCL "Hey, look at me, my BABIP is like .430, that's totally going to hold up in the major leagues." This was the same thing as so many guys, look at Dubois. It's not like Soto is 3 years younger than Dubois was either. And he's repeated AAA, and was never a great hitter before AAA, just like Cedeno. Not to mention all of the trade publications I've seen tab him as a backup, even more recently.

 

As for the first reply to my post, before Pie's prospect status expired, our two best position player prospects were outfielders (Pie and Colvin, I hope nobody actually believes in E-Pat). Soriano will be here forever. So if Vitters moves to the outfield, it's not as big of a help as it could be. The Brewers drafted LaPorta because he was the best/most ready bat at that point, but that's the kind of move I hate, drafting a 1b/DH(LF if he's lucky) type of guy when you get those guys rather easily from other teams who have blocked prospects or grab a Cust type.

 

On Baseball America's draft prospect tracker, they had Wieters ranked above Vitters, so I think you can say the Cubs did not take the best talent on the board. Furthermore, there's nobody who would say Porcello was not a better talent than Vitters. Somebody tries to argue that, it's simply not going to work. So they didn't.

Maybe they didn't put him higher in the end, but right before the draft on BA's "Who's Hot" thing, the guy was Vitters and the blurb was something along the lines of "Many scouts we've spoken to over the weekend all have Josh Vitters as there consensus top hitter"

 

It's buried somewhere in the 2007 Draft Prospects thread. But anyways, you really put THAT much stock in BA? It's a great site, but i'm sure they didn't have Albert Pujols in the 1st round when he was drafted. Where was Vitters ranked in relation to Wieters? 1 spot lower? Come on, you know that's a crapshoot.

[JeffH]

As far as Vitters versus Wieters is concerned, when the players are ranked closely, I would almost always take the college guy over the high school guy.

 

Also, I would almost always take the left handed hitter (or switch hitter) over the right handed hitter.

 

Also, I would almost always take the guy who plays the more valuable defensive position.

 

The one thing that I would like to ask a veteran, accomplished scout is how a hitter's height plays into his evaluation, if at all.

 

Wieters is tall. In my amateur opinion, being tall, while certainly not a death knell, works against a hitter. Long arms, large strike zone, etc.

 

For that reason, I worry a little bit about him as a major league hitter. Just a little bit.

[Guest]

Mauer is an exception, but tall catchers don't have a great track record of success.

 

As a position, catchers have among the highest miss rates. Because of the physical demands of the position, the difficulty in determining how he'll handle the many jobs of a catcher as a player advances, the increased injury risk from all the work behind the plate...spending a top pick on a catcher carries a large amount of risk.

 

While college position players are usually closer to the majors than high schoolers, I'm not sure this is true when comparing a catcher and a 3b.

 

There are many sides to this argument. In the end, if I can sign Vitters, take the additional $3M that Wieters received and spend it on additional high quality foreign prospects I think I'll come out ahead.

[vance_the_cubs_fan]

I'd have likely preferred Weiters to Vitters, but if Donaldson pans out behind the plate, we have done better to take Vitters and Donaldson than Weiters and another player when we selected Donaldson.

[Guest]

1B Bryan Jost, Minnesota (44th rounder) apparently also signed on the day of the deadline.

 

Ryan Acosta got a $250,000 bonus which is about 3rd round money.

[Rob]

Before Pie's prospect status expired, the team's two best position players were in the outfield, the other being Colvin (unless there are actually Eric Patterson believers on here... not me). Add into that Soriano is going to be there for a long time, if Vitters goes to the outfield, it's not the best fit.

 

Like the Brewers and Matt LaPorta. He was probably the best/quickest to move bat available at that spot. But come on. Who needs to draft for a 1b/DH/(LF at best) type that high? That's where this idea of not drafting for need irks me. That kind of talent you can usually find when somebody else has a prospect blocked or with a Jack Cust guy floating around.

 

The Phillies did a pretty good job of dealing with having both Jim Thome and Ryan Howard.

 

I'd rather have the option to deal from strength later than hope and pray the worse hitter we drafted develops into a starter at another position we haven't already filled.

[Guest]

The one who got away:

 

1. Victor Sanchez, 3b, Alexandria (Fr., San Diego)

 

Sanchez, who finished his prep career this spring at Gahr High in Norwalk, Calif., rated among the top 100 prospects in the draft this June thanks to his pedigree with USA Baseball's junior national team last summer and his solid all-around tools package. Signability questions caused the San Diego recruit to slip to the Cubs in the 25th round, and he gave the Toreros plenty to get excited about this summer by holding his own with a wood bat (.275/.390/.394) in one of the nation's premier college summer leagues. Sanchez, who turned around a 93 mph fastball for a home run against future USD teammate Kyle Blair in one game this summer, has a knack for getting the barrel of the bat on the ball consistently. He can cover the whole strike zone and demonstrates pitch recognition far beyond his years. Sanchez remains very thin but projects to hit for significant power as he fills out his 6-foot-1, 175-pound frame. He's a fringy defender with limited lateral range at third base who has caught some in high school, and his future might be behind the plate thanks to solid arm strength and receiving skills. Sanchez has advanced maturity and baseball instincts, making his average tools play up

 

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