Assessment on Zambrano?

[LetsGoCubs89]

all i gotta say is wow, and did anyone else notice the comment by len kasper, "Rich is slowly becoming the ace of this staff" hear that zambrano, that basically means ur a bum and u better pick it up soon

[Magnetic Curses]

all i gotta say is wow, and did anyone else notice the comment by len kasper, "Rich is slowly becoming the ace of this staff" hear that zambrano, that basically means ur a bum and u better pick it up soon

 

see, i can't understand this kind of thinking. zambrano has yet to have a bad year in the majors and people are referring to him as a bum.

 

he's one of the best pitchers in the bigs, maybe not over his last 4 starts, but over the last 4 years.

 

unbelievable.

[abuck1220]

all i gotta say is wow, and did anyone else notice the comment by len kasper, "Rich is slowly becoming the ace of this staff" hear that zambrano, that basically means ur a bum and u better pick it up soon

 

see, i can't understand this kind of thinking. zambrano has yet to have a bad year in the majors and people are referring to him as a bum.

 

he's one of the best pitchers in the bigs, maybe not over his last 4 starts, but over the last 4 years.

 

unbelievable.

 

hill's outpitched him for months. it's not even really close.

[Magnetic Curses]

all i gotta say is wow, and did anyone else notice the comment by len kasper, "Rich is slowly becoming the ace of this staff" hear that zambrano, that basically means ur a bum and u better pick it up soon

 

see, i can't understand this kind of thinking. zambrano has yet to have a bad year in the majors and people are referring to him as a bum.

 

he's one of the best pitchers in the bigs, maybe not over his last 4 starts, but over the last 4 years.

 

unbelievable.

 

hill's outpitched him for months. it's not even really close.

 

i never said that hill didn't, i just object to people calling zambrano a "bum".

[abuck1220]

he's certainly far from my favorite player right now, but i wouldn't refer to him as a bum.

[Magnetic Curses]

he's done nothing but be consistently excellent over the course of his career and people are already turning on him. it doesn't make sense.

 

but anyway, let's keep this about hill-imo, it would be a disserrvice right now to compare him to current barry zito.

[Hairyducked Idiot]

Things do change fast in baseball though. The fact that he's been one of the best pitchers in baseball for four years may even be a bad sign. How many pitchers are truly dominant for a longer period? Some, but not many.

[Magnetic Curses]

Things do change fast in baseball though. The fact that he's been one of the best pitchers in baseball for four years may even be a bad sign. How many pitchers are truly dominant for a longer period? Some, but not many.

 

i see no evidence that leads me to believe that this is anything but a slow start. if he's got a 5+ era at the end of the season, then i'll concede he's had a bad year.

 

but please don't imply that a 25 year-old pitcher who's done nothing but be very good is on the downside of his career.

[A New Era]

he's done nothing but be consistently excellent over the course of his career and people are already turning on him. it doesn't make sense.

 

but anyway, let's keep this about hill-imo, it would be a disserrvice right now to compare him to current barry zito.

 

Consistantly very very above average. Yes. Consitantly excellent? No. Now I'm not gonna argue Z doesn't have the STUFF. Because he does. The problem is is control and walks.

 

The ONLY year where I think he has had stellar stuff, and stellar results, is in 2004.

 

ERA

===

03 - 3.11

04 - 2.75

05 - 3.26

06 - 3.41

 

This year is going to be very important for Zambrano. Is he going to continue to trend downward? Or shape things back up? So far it's not looking so good. He's going to have to have a couple more shutout games than previous years to end up in the low 3's of ERA.

[CubColtPacer]

he's done nothing but be consistently excellent over the course of his career and people are already turning on him. it doesn't make sense.

 

but anyway, let's keep this about hill-imo, it would be a disserrvice right now to compare him to current barry zito.

 

Consistantly very very above average. Yes. Consitantly excellent? No. Now I'm not gonna argue Z doesn't have the STUFF. Because he does. The problem is is control and walks.

 

The ONLY year where I think he has had stellar stuff, and stellar results, is in 2004.

 

ERA

===

03 - 3.11

04 - 2.75

05 - 3.26

06 - 3.41

 

This year is going to be very important for Zambrano. Is he going to continue to trend downward? Or shape things back up? So far it's not looking so good. He's going to have to have a couple more shutout games than previous years to end up in the low 3's of ERA.

 

There are 150 starting slots in MLB. Zambrano has been in the top 15 of ERA each of the last 4 years, and top 10 3 times. Top 15 would be the top half of the "aces" in the league, and for him to hit that all 4 times says that he has been consistently excellent. Will he maintain that this year? I don't know.

 

In fact, I just checked-Zambrano is the only pitcher in the majors who pitched the innings required to qualify in ERA and was in the top 15 each of the last 4 years-the only one.

[Magnetic Curses]

he's done nothing but be consistently excellent over the course of his career and people are already turning on him. it doesn't make sense.

 

but anyway, let's keep this about hill-imo, it would be a disserrvice right now to compare him to current barry zito.

 

Consistantly very very above average. Yes. Consitantly excellent? No. Now I'm not gonna argue Z doesn't have the STUFF. Because he does. The problem is is control and walks.

 

The ONLY year where I think he has had stellar stuff, and stellar results, is in 2004.

 

ERA

===

03 - 3.11

04 - 2.75

05 - 3.26

06 - 3.41

 

This year is going to be very important for Zambrano. Is he going to continue to trend downward? Or shape things back up? So far it's not looking so good. He's going to have to have a couple more shutout games than previous years to end up in the low 3's of ERA.

 

ERA+ last 4 seasons:

 

136

165

131

136

 

i don't see a real downward trend, he just had a great season in 2004. and he's got 31 starts left this year, let's relax on saying what he has to have and how soon.

[Magnetic Curses]

he's done nothing but be consistently excellent over the course of his career and people are already turning on him. it doesn't make sense.

 

but anyway, let's keep this about hill-imo, it would be a disserrvice right now to compare him to current barry zito.

 

Consistantly very very above average. Yes. Consitantly excellent? No. Now I'm not gonna argue Z doesn't have the STUFF. Because he does. The problem is is control and walks.

 

The ONLY year where I think he has had stellar stuff, and stellar results, is in 2004.

 

ERA

===

03 - 3.11

04 - 2.75

05 - 3.26

06 - 3.41

 

This year is going to be very important for Zambrano. Is he going to continue to trend downward? Or shape things back up? So far it's not looking so good. He's going to have to have a couple more shutout games than previous years to end up in the low 3's of ERA.

 

ERA+ last 4 seasons:

 

136

165

131

136

 

i don't see a real downward trend, he just had a great season in 2004. and he's got 31 starts left this year, let's relax on saying what he has to have and how soon.

[Hairyducked Idiot]

Baseball-reference's most similar through age 25 to Carlos Zambrano

 

Ramon Martinez (pretty average after 25)

Dave Boswell (out of baseball by 26)

Jim Maloney (great at 26, 27, and 29)

Pedro Martinez (had a decent career or something)

Ismael Valdez (washed up at 25, though hung around for awhile)

Jim Nash (washed up at 26, out of baseball shortly thereafter)

Dan Petry (last good season at 26)

Jake Peavy (26 now, jury is out)

Andy Benes (bad after 26 with one brief flicker)

Steve Barber (very good career for a long time)

 

Pitchers can and do flame out quickly and unexpectedly. Even if Zambrano pitches at his old levels for the rest of the season, he's going to wind up with a pretty iffy season just from the 19 earned runs he has already given up.

[A New Era]

he's done nothing but be consistently excellent over the course of his career and people are already turning on him. it doesn't make sense.

 

but anyway, let's keep this about hill-imo, it would be a disserrvice right now to compare him to current barry zito.

 

Consistantly very very above average. Yes. Consitantly excellent? No. Now I'm not gonna argue Z doesn't have the STUFF. Because he does. The problem is is control and walks.

 

The ONLY year where I think he has had stellar stuff, and stellar results, is in 2004.

 

ERA

===

03 - 3.11

04 - 2.75

05 - 3.26

06 - 3.41

 

This year is going to be very important for Zambrano. Is he going to continue to trend downward? Or shape things back up? So far it's not looking so good. He's going to have to have a couple more shutout games than previous years to end up in the low 3's of ERA.

 

ERA+ last 4 seasons:

 

136

165

131

136

 

i don't see a real downward trend, he just had a great season in 2004. and he's got 31 starts left this year, let's relax on saying what he has to have and how soon.

 

However his BB's have been rising since 2004.

 

81 in '04 209 IP

86 in '05 but 223 IP

115 in 214 innings in '06

 

'06 is the scary part. In less innins than '05. In '06 he walked 29 more batters. He's walked 16 so far this season in 4 starts. Which divides to 4 BB's per start. If you extrapolate that over 32 starts, he's on pace to walk 128 batters (over just 32 starts). That's generally not gonna help your ERA and ERA+ very much. So basically, yes I can say what Zambrano needs to start doing. He's going to have to stop walking batters, that's for sure. Each game he walks atleast 4, he is adding more pressure to walk less than 4 in order to not increase his BB total significantly from previous years. .

[Cubbie_Gal]

hill's outpitched him for months. it's not even really close.

 

Months? Are we talking just this year (in which case, this doesn't make sense, nobody uses pre-season in a comparison between players). Or are you including last season? I may be braindead, but I don't even remember Hill doing anything significant last year. All I can recollect is that he was one of many going up and down last year as players came on/off the DL.

 

Am I missing something here?

[Shilzzz]

Baseball-reference's most similar through age 25 to Carlos Zambrano

 

Ramon Martinez (pretty average after 25)

Dave Boswell (out of baseball by 26)

Jim Maloney (great at 26, 27, and 29)

Pedro Martinez (had a decent career or something)

Ismael Valdez (washed up at 25, though hung around for awhile)

Jim Nash (washed up at 26, out of baseball shortly thereafter)

Dan Petry (last good season at 26)

Jake Peavy (26 now, jury is out)

Andy Benes (bad after 26 with one brief flicker)

Steve Barber (very good career for a long time)

 

Pitchers can and do flame out quickly and unexpectedly. Even if Zambrano pitches at his old levels for the rest of the season, he's going to wind up with a pretty iffy season just from the 19 earned runs he has already given up.

 

i hope that was sarcasm about pedro martinez. he has been one of the best pitchers of all time.

[Magnetic Curses]

Baseball-reference's most similar through age 25 to Carlos Zambrano

 

Ramon Martinez (pretty average after 25)

Dave Boswell (out of baseball by 26)

Jim Maloney (great at 26, 27, and 29)

Pedro Martinez (had a decent career or something)

Ismael Valdez (washed up at 25, though hung around for awhile)

Jim Nash (washed up at 26, out of baseball shortly thereafter)

Dan Petry (last good season at 26)

Jake Peavy (26 now, jury is out)

Andy Benes (bad after 26 with one brief flicker)

Steve Barber (very good career for a long time)

 

Pitchers can and do flame out quickly and unexpectedly. Even if Zambrano pitches at his old levels for the rest of the season, he's going to wind up with a pretty iffy season just from the 19 earned runs he has already given up.

 

ramon- chronic injuries derailed his career, but he was posting above average numbers at 30.

 

boswell- injured

 

maloney-injured after 29

 

pedro- well..

 

ismael- promising career plagued by blister problem that wouldn't go away.

 

nash- not near as effective or consistent as zambrano.

 

petry- overused and abused to a much greater degree than z.

 

peavy- good.

 

benes- was posting good years as late as 30.

 

barber- injuries put him in the bullpen, basically.

 

unless you expect z to be injured, it's hard to compare his situation with theirs. injuries are difficult to predict.

[A New Era]

hill's outpitched him for months. it's not even really close.

 

Months? Are we talking just this year (in which case, this doesn't make sense, nobody uses pre-season in a comparison between players). Or are you including last season? I may be braindead, but I don't even remember Hill doing anything significant last year. All I can recollect is that he was one of many going up and down last year as players came on/off the DL.

 

Am I missing something here?

 

You sure have. Hill's ERA's was I think in the top ten list in all of Baseball post all star break last year. He had 8 or 9, REALLY good starts. That looked just as good as his starts this year. You aren't remembering correctly if you don't remember how awesome Rich was even late last year, through several starts in a row at the end of the season. .

[Magnetic Curses]

he's done nothing but be consistently excellent over the course of his career and people are already turning on him. it doesn't make sense.

 

but anyway, let's keep this about hill-imo, it would be a disserrvice right now to compare him to current barry zito.

 

Consistantly very very above average. Yes. Consitantly excellent? No. Now I'm not gonna argue Z doesn't have the STUFF. Because he does. The problem is is control and walks.

 

The ONLY year where I think he has had stellar stuff, and stellar results, is in 2004.

 

ERA

===

03 - 3.11

04 - 2.75

05 - 3.26

06 - 3.41

 

This year is going to be very important for Zambrano. Is he going to continue to trend downward? Or shape things back up? So far it's not looking so good. He's going to have to have a couple more shutout games than previous years to end up in the low 3's of ERA.

 

ERA+ last 4 seasons:

 

136

165

131

136

 

i don't see a real downward trend, he just had a great season in 2004. and he's got 31 starts left this year, let's relax on saying what he has to have and how soon.

 

However his BB's have been rising since 2004.

 

81 in '04 209 IP

86 in '05 but 223 IP

115 in 214 innings in '06

 

'06 is the scary part. In less innins than '05. In '06 he walked 29 more batters. He's walked 16 so far this season in 4 starts. Which divides to 4 BB's per start. If you extrapolate that over 32 starts, he's on pace to walk 128 batters (over just 32 starts). That's generally not gonna help your ERA and ERA+ very much. So basically, yes I can say what Zambrano needs to start doing. He's going to have to stop walking batters, that's for sure. Each game he walks atleast 4, he is adding more pressure to walk less than 4 in order to not increase his BB total significantly from previous years. .

 

i never said that he didn't have problem with walks, that's not what i'm arguing. even with all the walks in 2006, he still posted a better era+ than 2005.

[abuck1220]

hill's outpitched him for months. it's not even really close.

 

Months? Are we talking just this year (in which case, this doesn't make sense, nobody uses pre-season in a comparison between players). Or are you including last season? I may be braindead, but I don't even remember Hill doing anything significant last year. All I can recollect is that he was one of many going up and down last year as players came on/off the DL.

 

Am I missing something here?

 

yes.

[A New Era]

he's done nothing but be consistently excellent over the course of his career and people are already turning on him. it doesn't make sense.

 

but anyway, let's keep this about hill-imo, it would be a disserrvice right now to compare him to current barry zito.

 

Consistantly very very above average. Yes. Consitantly excellent? No. Now I'm not gonna argue Z doesn't have the STUFF. Because he does. The problem is is control and walks.

 

The ONLY year where I think he has had stellar stuff, and stellar results, is in 2004.

 

ERA

===

03 - 3.11

04 - 2.75

05 - 3.26

06 - 3.41

 

This year is going to be very important for Zambrano. Is he going to continue to trend downward? Or shape things back up? So far it's not looking so good. He's going to have to have a couple more shutout games than previous years to end up in the low 3's of ERA.

 

ERA+ last 4 seasons:

 

136

165

131

136

 

i don't see a real downward trend, he just had a great season in 2004. and he's got 31 starts left this year, let's relax on saying what he has to have and how soon.

 

However his BB's have been rising since 2004.

 

81 in '04 209 IP

86 in '05 but 223 IP

115 in 214 innings in '06

 

'06 is the scary part. In less innins than '05. In '06 he walked 29 more batters. He's walked 16 so far this season in 4 starts. Which divides to 4 BB's per start. If you extrapolate that over 32 starts, he's on pace to walk 128 batters (over just 32 starts). That's generally not gonna help your ERA and ERA+ very much. So basically, yes I can say what Zambrano needs to start doing. He's going to have to stop walking batters, that's for sure. Each game he walks atleast 4, he is adding more pressure to walk less than 4 in order to not increase his BB total significantly from previous years. .

 

i never said that he didn't have problem with walks, that's not what i'm arguing. even with all the walks in 2006, he still posted a better era+ than 2005.

 

So ERA+ does not consider walks?

[Mark_R]

Gotta love the AP:

 

Rich Hill has no interest in knowing where he ranks among baseball's best pitchers.

 

"If you say that one of your main goals is to have 200 innings, everything else should take care of itself," the right-hander said. "The thing I focus on is going out there and making that one pitch. You're aggressive and you throw with conviction. I can't stress that enough."

[Magnetic Curses]

he's done nothing but be consistently excellent over the course of his career and people are already turning on him. it doesn't make sense.

 

but anyway, let's keep this about hill-imo, it would be a disserrvice right now to compare him to current barry zito.

 

Consistantly very very above average. Yes. Consitantly excellent? No. Now I'm not gonna argue Z doesn't have the STUFF. Because he does. The problem is is control and walks.

 

The ONLY year where I think he has had stellar stuff, and stellar results, is in 2004.

 

ERA

===

03 - 3.11

04 - 2.75

05 - 3.26

06 - 3.41

 

This year is going to be very important for Zambrano. Is he going to continue to trend downward? Or shape things back up? So far it's not looking so good. He's going to have to have a couple more shutout games than previous years to end up in the low 3's of ERA.

 

ERA+ last 4 seasons:

 

136

165

131

136

 

i don't see a real downward trend, he just had a great season in 2004. and he's got 31 starts left this year, let's relax on saying what he has to have and how soon.

 

However his BB's have been rising since 2004.

 

81 in '04 209 IP

86 in '05 but 223 IP

115 in 214 innings in '06

 

'06 is the scary part. In less innins than '05. In '06 he walked 29 more batters. He's walked 16 so far this season in 4 starts. Which divides to 4 BB's per start. If you extrapolate that over 32 starts, he's on pace to walk 128 batters (over just 32 starts). That's generally not gonna help your ERA and ERA+ very much. So basically, yes I can say what Zambrano needs to start doing. He's going to have to stop walking batters, that's for sure. Each game he walks atleast 4, he is adding more pressure to walk less than 4 in order to not increase his BB total significantly from previous years. .

 

i never said that he didn't have problem with walks, that's not what i'm arguing. even with all the walks in 2006, he still posted a better era+ than 2005.

 

So ERA+ does not consider walks?

 

it's actually more impressive to think that he was able to have a relatively better season and still surrender more walks--so, yes, it does.

 

never said he doesn't have a problem with walks though. but that doesn't necessarily mean that a 25 year-old is on his way out of the league. that's ridiculous.

[Ding Dong Johnson]

hill's outpitched him for months. it's not even really close.

 

Months? Are we talking just this year (in which case, this doesn't make sense, nobody uses pre-season in a comparison between players). Or are you including last season? I may be braindead, but I don't even remember Hill doing anything significant last year. All I can recollect is that he was one of many going up and down last year as players came on/off the DL.

 

Am I missing something here?

 

Did you watch any games past May?

[A New Era]

I'm deffinatly not the one who has said that. I think the only thing I'm arguing with Zambrano is, that he is going to get worse overall (while still having crazy stuff I admit) if he does not work on those walks, and soon.