Rampant Speculation re: Prior Thread (Legit info welcome)

[TakeMeOutToTheBallGame]

I'm not overly worried yet about Prior YET. after all, he's WAY ahead of where hes been the last few years. I say give him some more action before really analyzing anything. The beauty is the cubs arent counting on him this year, hes just gravy. It wold be incredible if he could return to the dominant pitcher that could throw any of his pitches for strikes consistently.

[soapy]

Well Sullivan is pretty much ready to write-off Prior too, but that's no surprise.

 

People are putting a whole lot of emphasis on 40 pitches. I think a deep breath is in order.

[C.C.]

Well Sullivan is pretty much ready to write-off Prior too, but that's no surprise.

 

People are putting a whole lot of emphasis on 40 pitches. I think a deep breath is in order.

 

Until Prior proves otherwise he's going to have his doubters. Which is pretty much everyone outside the org.

[Backtobanks]

Well Sullivan is pretty much ready to write-off Prior too, but that's no surprise.

 

People are putting a whole lot of emphasis on 40 pitches. I think a deep breath is in order.

 

Until Prior proves otherwise he's going to have his doubters. Which is pretty much everyone outside the org.

 

I wish people would wait until at least March 15th (or another trip to the DL) before writing off Prior.

[soapy]

Well Sullivan is pretty much ready to write-off Prior too, but that's no surprise.

 

People are putting a whole lot of emphasis on 40 pitches. I think a deep breath is in order.

 

Until Prior proves otherwise he's going to have his doubters. Which is pretty much everyone outside the org.

 

And yet Miller doesn't get the same treatment, IMO. I certainly have my doubts about Prior's chances, but I'm not going to put much emphasis on one spring training appearance.

[Dr. Cub]

i'll wrap up what i've said in a few posts in this thread and others:

 

the pitch that sets everything up for prior is his 2-seem fastball, which he throws in the 88-92 neighborhood. this pitch, when he throws it effectively, has good downward movement. a hitter has a difficult time picking up the difference between it and his 4-seemer, which he throws at 94-95 in the zone.

 

when he's not throwing the 2-seemer effectively, hitters know it and sit on his 4-seemer, which doesn't move as much and is primarily used to keep hitters honest under optimal conditions.

 

last season, it looked like prior was throwing the 4-seemer at it's regular velocity without problem. well, i shouldn't say "without problem" because there was a very big problem, he couldn't throw anything else for strikes. none of his uniquely nasty pitches were working, and he had to rely on gas to get the ball over. any pitcher can rely on the hard stuff, though, it simply made him a bad pitcher capable of hitting the mid-90's on the gun.

 

what my point is: don't worry about velocity. it will be there, he'll work it back up and will be firing the ball in the mid-to-low 90's fairly soon. what SHOULD scare you is the possibility that his "special" pitches won't come back, and that has nothing to do with what he displayed in his first outing--it was just that, his first live performance after a long layoff. give him some time to get a feel for his pitches, if he can't, then it will be a long year for him. thankfully, we have contingencies.

 

Bingo. Great post.

[CubColtPacer]

Well Sullivan is pretty much ready to write-off Prior too, but that's no surprise.

 

People are putting a whole lot of emphasis on 40 pitches. I think a deep breath is in order.

 

Until Prior proves otherwise he's going to have his doubters. Which is pretty much everyone outside the org.

 

And yet Miller doesn't get the same treatment, IMO. I certainly have my doubts about Prior's chances, but I'm not going to put much emphasis on one spring training appearance.

 

Miller gets a little more of a free pass for 3 reasons

1) He's not as highly regarded as Prior is-so his gain or loss is not as much of a change to the Cubs season, therefore there is less intrigue about if he is healthy or not.

2)He didn't have his success with the Cubs, and didn't get hurt with the Cubs-Prior's injuries have put a lot of pain into Cubs fans who remember 03 and how well he pitched, and so there is an inherent emotional reaction at this point to think that he always will be hurt the way he has been. Miller is just a rehabbing pitcher who doesn't bring up those same sorts of emotional reactions.

3)Miller went out and pitched at least somewhat effectively his first appearance in ST-Prior didn't.

 

Edit: BTW, I'm not writing Prior off yet-I'm just trying to explain why Miller gets a little more slack than Prior does with most people.

[C.C.]

Well Sullivan is pretty much ready to write-off Prior too, but that's no surprise.

 

People are putting a whole lot of emphasis on 40 pitches. I think a deep breath is in order.

 

Until Prior proves otherwise he's going to have his doubters. Which is pretty much everyone outside the org.

 

And yet Miller doesn't get the same treatment, IMO. I certainly have my doubts about Prior's chances, but I'm not going to put much emphasis on one spring training appearance.

 

Miller gets a little more of a free pass for 3 reasons

1) He's not as highly regarded as Prior is-so his gain or loss is not as much of a change to the Cubs season, therefore there is less intrigue about if he is healthy or not.

2)He didn't have his success with the Cubs, and didn't get hurt with the Cubs-Prior's injuries have put a lot of pain into Cubs fans who remember 03 and how well he pitched, and so there is an inherent emotional reaction at this point to think that he always will be hurt the way he has been. Miller is just a rehabbing pitcher who doesn't bring up those same sorts of emotional reactions.

3)Miller went out and pitched at least somewhat effectively his first appearance in ST-Prior didn't.

 

Edit: BTW, I'm not writing Prior off yet-I'm just trying to explain why Miller gets a little more slack than Prior does with most people.

 

Yes, yes, and yes...

[Soul]

If we want to look on the bright side, Prior never got that huge money, long term deal, so no matter what happens we won't be saddled with massive deadweight for years & years.

 

There will always be other options out there, other ways to build a dominant pitching staff.

[soapy]

 

Miller gets a little more of a free pass for 3 reasons

1) He's not as highly regarded as Prior is-so his gain or loss is not as much of a change to the Cubs season, therefore there is less intrigue about if he is healthy or not.

2)He didn't have his success with the Cubs, and didn't get hurt with the Cubs-Prior's injuries have put a lot of pain into Cubs fans who remember 03 and how well he pitched, and so there is an inherent emotional reaction at this point to think that he always will be hurt the way he has been. Miller is just a rehabbing pitcher who doesn't bring up those same sorts of emotional reactions.

3)Miller went out and pitched at least somewhat effectively his first appearance in ST-Prior didn't.

 

Edit: BTW, I'm not writing Prior off yet-I'm just trying to explain why Miller gets a little more slack than Prior does with most people.

 

Yes, yes, and yes...

 

no, no and no.

 

1) You're essentially saying that Prior is better than Miller (when healthy). I agree. However, that should have no bearing on how he is treated. Why is it okay to give up on Prior and/or badmouth him because he is better (and/or more important to the team's success)? I don't get that.

 

2) I would think this should have the opposite effect. I think of Prior fondly because of what he did in 2003 (and 2004 which everyone seems to disregard). Therefore I'm almost inclined to give him more slack, not less.

 

3) Miller pitched better than Prior in one appearance. A Spring Training appearance at that. I have no idea why this should matter, at all.

[CubColtPacer]

 

Miller gets a little more of a free pass for 3 reasons

1) He's not as highly regarded as Prior is-so his gain or loss is not as much of a change to the Cubs season, therefore there is less intrigue about if he is healthy or not.

2)He didn't have his success with the Cubs, and didn't get hurt with the Cubs-Prior's injuries have put a lot of pain into Cubs fans who remember 03 and how well he pitched, and so there is an inherent emotional reaction at this point to think that he always will be hurt the way he has been. Miller is just a rehabbing pitcher who doesn't bring up those same sorts of emotional reactions.

3)Miller went out and pitched at least somewhat effectively his first appearance in ST-Prior didn't.

 

Edit: BTW, I'm not writing Prior off yet-I'm just trying to explain why Miller gets a little more slack than Prior does with most people.

 

Yes, yes, and yes...

 

no, no and no.

 

1) You're essentially saying that Prior is better than Miller (when healthy). I agree. However, that should have no bearing on how he is treated. Why is it okay to give up on Prior and/or badmouth him because he is better (and/or more important to the team's success)? I don't get that.

 

2) I would think this should have the opposite effect. I think of Prior fondly because of what he did in 2003 (and 2004 which everyone seems to disregard). Therefore I'm almost inclined to give him more slack, not less.

 

3) Miller pitched better than Prior in one appearance. A Spring Training appearance at that. I have no idea why this should matter, at all.

 

1) Everything Prior does is magnified because he was so good. Miller is under the radar-if he's terrible, the club will quietly release him and nobody will care. Many people put the hopes of the club on Prior's shoulders, and unfair or not if he doesn't deliver he's going to be criticized for it. When Prior goes to the mound, it's big news-if he pitches well, then everyone will rejoice. If he pitches poorly, people look for something to blame. When you're a star, you get too much credit when things are going well and too much blame when things are going poorly-Prior got the credit, and now he's getting the blame.

 

2)I sort of covered it in 1-Prior's "star" status in the city of Chicago adds expectations that are not being met right now, and that leads to criticism.

 

3) It's not only one appearance-Miller showed signs at the end of last year, and then again the other day that he has a chance of being an effective major league pitcher again. Prior was worse last year than Miller, and he was worse the other day-when he does pitch effectively even for one appearance, public opinion will start to turn.

 

4)Here's a 4th point-Prior's injury status has been lied about so many times saying that he's healthy or day to day that nobody believes anything about his health anymore. When they have lied to you again and again, you start to believe that they are not telling the truth until you see the evidence for yourself-Prior hasn't shown that evidence yet. They may have lied about Miller as well last year, but nobody remembers that because by the time Miller was supposed to come back anyway the Cubs were so far out of it that nobody cared and many people were not watching the team.

[radarluv1]

ok, now that we've almost killed the prior thread...

when is he scheduled to pitch next?

[jjgman21]

ok, now that we've almost killed the prior thread...

when is he scheduled to pitch next?

 

you mean figuratively "killed" of course.

 

I believe it was reiterated several times that he follows Lilly on Saturday.

[TruffleShuffle]

kerry wood gave up 4 runs, looks like he's done too

[CubColtPacer]

kerry wood gave up 4 runs, looks like he's done too

 

How many runs Wood gave up is actually the subject of a great debate-there have been at least 3 different answers argued for, and now it's still stuck at 2 different answers :D

[CaliforniaRaisin]

kerry wood gave up 4 runs, looks like he's done too

 

How many runs Wood gave up is actually the subject of a great debate-there have been at least 3 different answers argued for, and now it's still stuck at 2 different answers :D

 

Techincally, he gave up 4 runs. The debate is over how many were unearned.

[BRASKYS SCOTCH]

Al Gore:

 

Look people, we can fix Prior by using the lockbox ...

 

 

http://www.current.org/doc/doc0221florida-1.jpg

[oldstyle81]

im a little concerned now

[Roast]

im a little concerned now

 

Why? He improved a couple MPH over his last started and mixed in some breaking stuff.

 

It's progress.

[oldstyle81]

im a little concerned now

 

Why? He improved a couple MPH over his last started and mixed in some breaking stuff.

 

It's progress.

 

nevermind, i was given the wrong info, i thought he was only throwing 85 today.

[Roast]

im a little concerned now

 

Why? He improved a couple MPH over his last started and mixed in some breaking stuff.

 

It's progress.

 

nevermind, i was given the wrong info, i thought he was only throwing 85 today.

 

Oh, no. He was consistantly throwing 86-87-88

[jjgman21]

Al Gore:

 

Look people, we can fix Prior by using the lockbox ...

 

 

http://www.current.org/doc/doc0221florida-1.jpg

 

no, we should use strategery

[Guest]

im a little concerned now

 

Why? He improved a couple MPH over his last started and mixed in some breaking stuff.

 

It's progress.

 

nevermind, i was given the wrong info, i thought he was only throwing 85 today.

 

Oh, no. He was consistantly throwing 86-87-88

The first pitch of each of his innings was 84 mph. After those, I didn't see any fastball under 87. The vast bulk were at 87 and 88. I also saw one pitch at 94 and one at 112, but I'm not as confident in those readings from the gun. :D

[oldstyle81]

im a little concerned now

 

Why? He improved a couple MPH over his last started and mixed in some breaking stuff.

 

It's progress.

 

nevermind, i was given the wrong info, i thought he was only throwing 85 today.

 

Oh, no. He was consistantly throwing 86-87-88

 

ok good, i was under the impression that he didnt improve on his last start.

[PackLandVA]

I heard Dan Plesac comment during the game that he remembered early in his career watching Bob Welch pitch in ST. Said Welch was awful to a point that Plesac almost felt sorry for him. Plesac went on to say that Welch ended up winning 20+ games that year. I know, I know, wins aren't a good barometer of how good a pitcher pitches. But I doubt he sucked that much during the year and still won 20.

 

ST is for players to work on things. None of the stats really matter. Too often, the hot hitters in spring take a big crap once the games matter and vice versa. Same can be said of pitchers. Hopefully Prior is "working on things" and when the games count, he'll put it together.

Edited March 11, 2007 by PackLandVA