Rampant Speculation re: Prior Thread (Legit info welcome)

[C.C.]

Nathanael (KC): Among all the other things I need to worry about as a Cubs fan, do I need to worry about Prior's low velocity yesterday? Or will this improve with more work?

 

Rob Neyer: (12:13 PM ET ) Obviously I'm pulling for him, as I pull for all players who aren't obviously bad guys. But I'll be surprised if Prior wins 50 more games in his career.

[98navigator]

Nathanael (KC): Among all the other things I need to worry about as a Cubs fan, do I need to worry about Prior's low velocity yesterday? Or will this improve with more work?

 

Rob Neyer: (12:13 PM ET ) Obviously I'm pulling for him, as I pull for all players who aren't obviously bad guys. But I'll be surprised if Prior wins 50 more games in his career.

 

Nice hyperbole. :shock:

[Soul]

Prior, Lee, and Wood all look like they've lost weight to me. Especially Wood, of course.

 

Maybe I just heard completely wrong about Prior. I could have sworn someone said he looked alright in practice, and that the velocity was O.K., though not great.

 

If that's all he really has -- mid-80's -- then yeah, we're in trouble. You can work on strength all you want, it's not going to suddenly add 10 MPH to a fastball in 1 month. Prior needs to hit 93/94 with that fastball to be effective, IMO.

[Jehrico]

Ok, apparently Cuse may have meant a different Guzman, but I didn't.

 

Juan Guzman at age 24 came up with the Blue Jays. He started 23 games, going 10-3 with a 2.99 ERA or 144 ERA+.

 

In 1992 at age 25, he went 15-5 with a 2.64 ERA and a 156 ERA+.

 

At age 26, 14-3, but the ERA started to rise.

 

Injuries began to pile up and he was never the same.

 

He did have a pretty nice rebound in 96, though.

When I saw that, I didn't think of comparing him to Prior for hope...I thought of Marquis. 6+ ERA one year, below three the next...

[CubinNY]

I'm not worried about Prior at all.

 

Because this thread is about speculation, here is mine:

 

Prior was just throwing BP to get used to being back on the mound in game conditions. I think I read a quote saying that and here it is:

 

“I felt good,” said Prior, who had not pitched since last August. “I was just off; I wasn’t finishing my pitches. The most important thing was I got out there and I threw and it feels good.

 

“It’s been almost 2¨ years since I wasn’t more worried about my arm than batters, so that was kind of a nice feeling. I’ll get back to work and prepare for my next outing.”

 

There are lots of pitchers who suck in ST becuase they are working on this or that and aren't really concerned with impressing the fans or the media. I am hoping Prior is one of them.

[YearofDaCubs]

Prior, Lee, and Wood all look like they've lost weight to me. Especially Wood, of course.

 

Maybe I just heard completely wrong about Prior. I could have sworn someone said he looked alright in practice, and that the velocity was O.K., though not great.

 

If that's all he really has -- mid-80's -- then yeah, we're in trouble. You can work on strength all you want, it's not going to suddenly add 10 MPH to a fastball in 1 month. Prior needs to hit 93/94 with that fastball to be effective, IMO.

I agree. If he can't hit the 90's with his FB, he's done for. I think we can all agree that if his velocity stays in the 80's we won't be expecting much from him this year or maybe ever.

[Soul]

Prior, Lee, and Wood all look like they've lost weight to me. Especially Wood, of course.

 

Maybe I just heard completely wrong about Prior. I could have sworn someone said he looked alright in practice, and that the velocity was O.K., though not great.

 

If that's all he really has -- mid-80's -- then yeah, we're in trouble. You can work on strength all you want, it's not going to suddenly add 10 MPH to a fastball in 1 month. Prior needs to hit 93/94 with that fastball to be effective, IMO.

I agree. If he can't hit the 90's with his FB, he's done for. I think we can all agree that if his velocity stays in the 80's we won't be expecting much from him this year or maybe ever.

 

I might feel differently if he was a multi-pitch guy. But it's basically 2 pitches. If a pitcher is going to succeed as a starter in the majors with 2 pitches, then both need to be "plus." Or so I've been told ;)

[Sarcastic]

Prior, Lee, and Wood all look like they've lost weight to me. Especially Wood, of course.

 

Maybe I just heard completely wrong about Prior. I could have sworn someone said he looked alright in practice, and that the velocity was O.K., though not great.

 

If that's all he really has -- mid-80's -- then yeah, we're in trouble. You can work on strength all you want, it's not going to suddenly add 10 MPH to a fastball in 1 month. Prior needs to hit 93/94 with that fastball to be effective, IMO.

 

For the last time, the reports after the game said that Prior hit 89, not the 83-85 that the Seattle announcers were talking about. You can't expect his velocity to be 100% in his first ST start. I'm not worried about his velocity at all. If there is anything to worry about, it would be his command, since that was his big problem last year.

[YearofDaCubs]

Prior, Lee, and Wood all look like they've lost weight to me. Especially Wood, of course.

 

Maybe I just heard completely wrong about Prior. I could have sworn someone said he looked alright in practice, and that the velocity was O.K., though not great.

 

If that's all he really has -- mid-80's -- then yeah, we're in trouble. You can work on strength all you want, it's not going to suddenly add 10 MPH to a fastball in 1 month. Prior needs to hit 93/94 with that fastball to be effective, IMO.

 

For the last time, the reports after the game said that Prior hit 89, not the 83-85 that the Seattle announcers were talking about. You can't expect his velocity to be 100% in his first ST start. I'm not worried about his velocity at all. If there is anything to worry about, it would be his command, since that was his big problem last year.

This is from Sullivan's article..

 

The velocity on Prior's fastball averaged 84-86 m.p.h., topping out at 89, whereas Wood threw in the mid-90s, hit 95 with consistency and said his "heart was racing" on the mound.

 

Obviously WORKING from 84-86mph is not going to get it done.

[Amazing_Grace]

Prior, Lee, and Wood all look like they've lost weight to me. Especially Wood, of course.

 

Maybe I just heard completely wrong about Prior. I could have sworn someone said he looked alright in practice, and that the velocity was O.K., though not great.

 

If that's all he really has -- mid-80's -- then yeah, we're in trouble. You can work on strength all you want, it's not going to suddenly add 10 MPH to a fastball in 1 month. Prior needs to hit 93/94 with that fastball to be effective, IMO.

I agree. If he can't hit the 90's with his FB, he's done for. I think we can all agree that if his velocity stays in the 80's we won't be expecting much from him this year or maybe ever.

 

I might feel differently if he was a multi-pitch guy. But it's basically 2 pitches. If a pitcher is going to succeed as a starter in the majors with 2 pitches, then both need to be "plus." Or so I've been told ;)

 

Does Prior really only have 2 pitches? I thought he threw a fastball, slider, and changeup.

[moorecg]

Has there been any reports about how he "felt" today...I haven't heard "tenderness" "soreness" or "discomfort" mentioned at all today...that has to be considered some sort of success.

[Wilson A2000]

Does anyone think that maybe Prior isn't throwing as hard as he he could because, well it was his first darn ST game!

[Sarcastic]

Prior, Lee, and Wood all look like they've lost weight to me. Especially Wood, of course.

 

Maybe I just heard completely wrong about Prior. I could have sworn someone said he looked alright in practice, and that the velocity was O.K., though not great.

 

If that's all he really has -- mid-80's -- then yeah, we're in trouble. You can work on strength all you want, it's not going to suddenly add 10 MPH to a fastball in 1 month. Prior needs to hit 93/94 with that fastball to be effective, IMO.

 

For the last time, the reports after the game said that Prior hit 89, not the 83-85 that the Seattle announcers were talking about. You can't expect his velocity to be 100% in his first ST start. I'm not worried about his velocity at all. If there is anything to worry about, it would be his command, since that was his big problem last year.

This is from Sullivan's article..

 

The velocity on Prior's fastball averaged 84-86 m.p.h., topping out at 89, whereas Wood threw in the mid-90s, hit 95 with consistency and said his "heart was racing" on the mound.

 

Obviously WORKING from 84-86mph is not going to get it done.

 

I'd bet the 84-86 was his 2 seamer, which he throws more often, in which case its only a 5 mph gap, since he usually threw the 2 seamer 89-91. Is a 5 mph gap in his first ST game in years really something to be concerned about?

[YearofDaCubs]

Prior, Lee, and Wood all look like they've lost weight to me. Especially Wood, of course.

 

Maybe I just heard completely wrong about Prior. I could have sworn someone said he looked alright in practice, and that the velocity was O.K., though not great.

 

If that's all he really has -- mid-80's -- then yeah, we're in trouble. You can work on strength all you want, it's not going to suddenly add 10 MPH to a fastball in 1 month. Prior needs to hit 93/94 with that fastball to be effective, IMO.

 

For the last time, the reports after the game said that Prior hit 89, not the 83-85 that the Seattle announcers were talking about. You can't expect his velocity to be 100% in his first ST start. I'm not worried about his velocity at all. If there is anything to worry about, it would be his command, since that was his big problem last year.

This is from Sullivan's article..

 

The velocity on Prior's fastball averaged 84-86 m.p.h., topping out at 89, whereas Wood threw in the mid-90s, hit 95 with consistency and said his "heart was racing" on the mound.

 

Obviously WORKING from 84-86mph is not going to get it done.

 

I'd bet the 84-86 was his 2 seamer, which he throws more often, in which case its only a 5 mph gap, since he usually threw the 2 seamer 89-91. Is a 5 mph gap in his first ST game in years really something to be concerned about?

89-91? Maybe when he was injured did he throw it at that. All I'm saying is if he doesn't get his velocity consistently in the 90's there cause for concern.

[Jon]

I think there's some cause for concern, but it was obvious that he wasn't throwing like he was in his previous sessions. We'll just have to wait and see how he progresses.

 

Not much can be drawn from this outing other than he has a little ways to go.

[Jazz]

IMO, i think we're going to get a laugh out of this thread in a month or so when Prior is dealing. less than 2 innings of his first crack at ML opposition in a long time is hardly enough to be basing the future of his career around. Now a few more outings like that with that weak of stuff and I'll worry. I aslo try not to get to worried when the reports of his velocity are as varied as they have been. This is typical us speculating to no end about stuff that usually ends up as nothing (see 100s of pages of Dunn threads). Oh well, where were we.

 

CLUCK CLUCK, THE SKY IS FALLING

[Soriano12]

I don't feel like reading this whole thread, can I get a cliff notes version?

[JGalt73]

Both Mark Prior and Kerry Wood reported no unusual soreness on Tuesday, the day after their Cactus League debuts, which was great news, said Cubs manager Lou Piniella.

 

Prior, who threw 40 pitches over 1 1/3 innings on Monday against the Mariners, is slated to pitch on Saturday against the Royals. Left-hander Ted Lilly will start that game, and Prior will follow.

 

Prior didn't throw any breaking pitches on Monday, and his pitches were clocked in the low 80s on the radar gun. Piniella was asked if the right-hander could get his velocity up by Opening Day.

[Jon]

Both Mark Prior and Kerry Wood reported no unusual soreness on Tuesday, the day after their Cactus League debuts, which was great news, said Cubs manager Lou Piniella.

 

Prior, who threw 40 pitches over 1 1/3 innings on Monday against the Mariners, is slated to pitch on Saturday against the Royals. Left-hander Ted Lilly will start that game, and Prior will follow.

 

Prior didn't throw any breaking pitches on Monday, and his pitches were clocked in the low 80s on the radar gun. Piniella was asked if the right-hander could get his velocity up by Opening Day.

Piniella said that he couldn't get his breaking ball over, so that's certainly conflicting. But Lou did acknowledge that Prior was working mostly in the mid-80s.

[otis89]

Both Mark Prior and Kerry Wood reported no unusual soreness on Tuesday, the day after their Cactus League debuts, which was great news, said Cubs manager Lou Piniella.

 

Prior, who threw 40 pitches over 1 1/3 innings on Monday against the Mariners, is slated to pitch on Saturday against the Royals. Left-hander Ted Lilly will start that game, and Prior will follow.

 

Prior didn't throw any breaking pitches on Monday, and his pitches were clocked in the low 80s on the radar gun. Piniella was asked if the right-hander could get his velocity up by Opening Day.

 

Bleeping cable company! Just give me CSN, so I can actually see Prior pitch! It won't kill you to give us one extra channel that you tell us we get anyway! :x

[Roast]

I don't feel like reading this whole thread, can I get a cliff notes version?

 

The mariners announcers said prior topped out at 85.

Everyone here freaked out like the sky was falling.

Turns out he was consistently throwing around 85, but topped out at 89.

People still think the sky is falling, but not as fast.

[David]

I don't feel like reading all the new posts, so maybe someone has already mentioned this, but maybe he was throwing the two seamer (which he generally threw low 90's) at 85-86 and he was throwing the four seamer (which he threw in the mid 90's) when he hit 89. Would seem to make sense.

[Laura]

Please read back at least 2 pages before posting. If you don't have time to read ... you probably don't have time to post, either.

[David]

Please read back at least 2 pages before posting. If you don't have time to read ... you probably don't have time to post, either.

 

Dang, I should probably be more clear with the sarcasm. Now that I read it, it definitely isn't that easy to tell. My bad. I think Sarcastic made a good point and it didn't get much attention.

 

89-91? Maybe when he was injured did he throw it at that. All I'm saying is if he doesn't get his velocity consistently in the 90's there cause for concern.

 

Prior definitely did throw the two seamer in the low 90's. Not 89, but 91-92, usually. It was his 4-seamer that he would hit the mid 90's with.

[98navigator]

Both Mark Prior and Kerry Wood reported no unusual soreness on Tuesday, the day after their Cactus League debuts, which was great news, said Cubs manager Lou Piniella.

 

Prior, who threw 40 pitches over 1 1/3 innings on Monday against the Mariners, is slated to pitch on Saturday against the Royals. Left-hander Ted Lilly will start that game, and Prior will follow.

 

Prior didn't throw any breaking pitches on Monday, and his pitches were clocked in the low 80s on the radar gun. Piniella was asked if the right-hander could get his velocity up by Opening Day.

 

FYI, the Cubs will be expecting Prior to go 3 innings on Saturday. I know that is normal but it somewhat surprised me to read considering he technically hasn't thrown 2 innings...