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Posted
Just to set the record straight. Miller didn't have TJS he had a torn labrum. In 2004 he had surgery. Since 2004 he's had two more surgerys.

 

Miller has worked hard and might have been worth a gamble when the Cubs orriginally signed him. I was really hoping he'd be able to make it back, but last year he didn't show much. I guess $1.5 isn't a lot of money in this market, but I don't think it was wise to resign him.

 

Finally, location is important for any pitcher. But for one who is throwing BP fastballs, location is low on the list of worries.

 

What if 1.5 is the difference between scouting an area like Asia? Is it worth it then? maybe the money is alocated differently but it has to be included in the overall budget.

 

I'm hitting what you are pitching.

 

I'd take the money Hendry has spent on all the washed up players over the years and put it into scouting and player development.

 

Remember Chad Fox?

 

Every team takes gambles and the costs can be measured in many ways. Using the Campusano example brought up earlier, the Tigers have committed to having him on their 25 man roster (for better or worse). If he doesn't pan out they would have lost a year of paying him ML minimum as well as a year of probably not grooming one of their own prospects. Additionally, if their gamble doesn't pay off, they may be seeking another bullpen arm next year anyway...

 

Both, the Cubs example and Tiger example, are gambles and the relative dollar amounts are in proportion with each team's revenue.

 

To your point, I don't think that the money allocated for payroll has much bearing on what the team does in the way of scouting. The Cubs just hired Tim Wilken so they have committed themselves to improve scouting. I doubt Wilken would have put his good reputation on the line without getting some assurances from the Cubs about their committment to he and his staff going forward.

Posted
Some people were up in arms about the chance of losing Jason Szuminski to the Padres too.

 

Same story, different year.

 

 

You take this as a case by case situation and not a not across the line move. Every player is different.

Posted

[quote name="davearm

A guy with that level of production gets paid something like $12M/yr (or more) on the open market. Say you think Miller's got a 25% chance of meeting that ceiling. You should be willing to pay him $3M (12x0.25). The Cubs are paying half that. That's smart business.

 

That is not quite accurate. First of all the 25% number is a guess. We have absolutely no idea. If it is 12.5% the Cubs are getting no bargain. But this logic could be used to justify paying any Major League pitcher who had success as recently as 2003 (Jose Lima' date=' Jason Marquis).

 

But there is another problem. Like in Deal or No Deal the variability of outcomes is tremendous. There is no need to pay anything approaching how your formula values Miller because the chance that he goes 4-7 with a 5.80 ERA is quite high. And that is worth almost nothing to the Cubs who could get that from Mateo or Guzman for the league minimum.

Posted
If the Cubs could be as patient with him as they have been with 2 yr wonder Wood, then I think he will come around to the guy that was in contention for the Cy young

 

 

Are you kidding? "2 yr wonder Wood" has had more than two good years and he was under a longterm contract which is why the team has been patient with him. Kerry Wood wouldn't have survived this long without a tremendous upside. Wade Miller's age, risk level, and small contract make him easily expendable. Add to that diminishing stuff and its a recipe for getting released.

 

what is he 30 now? Do you remember when he was in contention for the Cy Young?

risk Level? He pitched five games last year, not much to judge a man on. Kerry is coming in with a torn shoulder, and he over-ruled doctors, he definetly has a risk value and now a low contract. I see Wade as a guy that will get traded and be another Denise Eckersly, but not with the drinking problem.

Posted
If the Cubs could be as patient with him as they have been with 2 yr wonder Wood, then I think he will come around to the guy that was in contention for the Cy young

 

 

Are you kidding? "2 yr wonder Wood" has had more than two good years and he was under a longterm contract which is why the team has been patient with him. Kerry Wood wouldn't have survived this long without a tremendous upside. Wade Miller's age, risk level, and small contract make him easily expendable. Add to that diminishing stuff and its a recipe for getting released.

 

what is he 30 now? Do you remember when he was in contention for the Cy Young?

risk Level? He pitched five games last year, not much to judge a man on. Kerry is coming in with a torn shoulder, and he over-ruled doctors, he definetly has a risk value and now a low contract. I see Wade as a guy that will get traded and be another Denise Eckersly, but not with the drinking problem.

 

LOL, Wade Miller was never in any serious contention for the Cy Young! He's a year older than Wood and like I said, Kerry was under contract and the fact that he is homegrown comes into play as well. Wade Miller is very easily expendable.

 

Wood's decision to rehab instead of surgery is probably a wise choice. He said he spoke with other players who successfully completed shoulder rehabs instead of going under the knife.

 

Miller does not equal Dennis Eckersly

Posted

A guy with that level of production gets paid something like $12M/yr (or more) on the open market. Say you think Miller's got a 25% chance of meeting that ceiling. You should be willing to pay him $3M (12x0.25). The Cubs are paying half that. That's smart business.

 

That is not quite accurate. First of all the 25% number is a guess. We have absolutely no idea. If it is 12.5% the Cubs are getting no bargain. But this logic could be used to justify paying any Major League pitcher who had success as recently as 2003 (Jose Lima, Jason Marquis).

 

But there is another problem. Like in Deal or No Deal the variability of outcomes is tremendous. There is no need to pay anything approaching how your formula values Miller because the chance that he goes 4-7 with a 5.80 ERA is quite high. And that is worth almost nothing to the Cubs who could get that from Mateo or Guzman for the league minimum.

I was simplifying the analysis to make the point.

 

In reality you'd probably want to spell out anywhere from 4 to 12 different scenario outcomes, assign dollar values and probablities to each, and then just do the math to come up with an expected value across the scenarios. 25% and $12M was just one of several such scenarios you'd want to consider.

 

FWIW, BP's PECOTA forecasting system does exactly what I describe above (using 7 scenarios), and they've put Miller's value for the 2007 season at $2.375M. JMHO, but they're being pretty conservative too, since his 90th percentile case still shows him throwing only 108 IP.

Posted

 

If Miller is stuggling to reach the mid 80s with his fastball, changing speeds won't matter one bit. Neither will location. It's not that hard to adjust to off-speed pitches when I guy throws that slow. In fact you could look off-speed and still catch up to the fastball.

 

Now if he can get some arm strength back and get back intot he low 90s mid 80s consistently he may have some value.

 

He didn't show enough to me at the end of last season to warrent resigning him.

 

The Miller I saw at Peoria and I believe he cont'd this trend throughout the rehab was process was starting off the 1st 20 pitches around 88-89 and by he got around 40+ would be down to 83-84. Atkins said he had been like that with all of his starts and Atkins should know as he charted most of his starts.

Posted
CubinNY: I appreciation the condescending attitude, I really do. I continue to find it amazing how certain people around here consistently get away with it.

 

Anyway, I don't care if a pitcher is reaching 85 mph with his fastball, if he can put it anywhere he wants to, whenever he wants to, and the same with his off-speed stuff, that pitcher has a good chance to be an effective major league pitcher. Excellent command can make up for a lot of other weaknesses.

Wade Miller isn't going to do this.

 

You are most likely correct.

 

I was simply responding to his statement that location of his pitches wouldn't matter if he was struggling to hit the mid-80s with his fastball. I disagreed. I still do.

 

Also need a deceptive delivery or pitch backwards off the change-up.

Posted
If the Cubs could be as patient with him as they have been with 2 yr wonder Wood, then I think he will come around to the guy that was in contention for the Cy young

 

 

Are you kidding? "2 yr wonder Wood" has had more than two good years and he was under a longterm contract which is why the team has been patient with him. Kerry Wood wouldn't have survived this long without a tremendous upside. Wade Miller's age, risk level, and small contract make him easily expendable. Add to that diminishing stuff and its a recipe for getting released.

 

what is he 30 now? Do you remember when he was in contention for the Cy Young?

risk Level? He pitched five games last year, not much to judge a man on. Kerry is coming in with a torn shoulder, and he over-ruled doctors, he definetly has a risk value and now a low contract. I see Wade as a guy that will get traded and be another Denise Eckersly, but not with the drinking problem.

 

LOL, Wade Miller was never in any serious contention for the Cy Young! He's a year older than Wood and like I said, Kerry was under contract and the fact that he is homegrown comes into play as well. Wade Miller is very easily expendable.

 

Wood's decision to rehab instead of surgery is probably a wise choice. He said he spoke with other players who successfully completed shoulder rehabs instead of going under the knife.

 

Miller does not equal Dennis Eckersly

 

Hope I don't sound too snobby but this is a guy ,wood, who has no formal education beyond High School he has been treated like a spoiled superstar since high school. I can't see an upside to a guy that hasn't finished a season in a cpl of years, home grown or not I got a gut feeling he will let us down again and be on injured list by July. Wood could make it through spring training that one year before his arm went out. I was at that spring training game when it went out, as well as the week before. Wood didn't hustle a bit. Soul searching may just tell me that I like Miller over Wood because of first impressions or it could be because he is injury proned and we payed the smuck 12 mill to sit on last years bench.

Posted (edited)
If the Cubs could be as patient with him as they have been with 2 yr wonder Wood, then I think he will come around to the guy that was in contention for the Cy young

 

 

Are you kidding? "2 yr wonder Wood" has had more than two good years and he was under a longterm contract which is why the team has been patient with him. Kerry Wood wouldn't have survived this long without a tremendous upside. Wade Miller's age, risk level, and small contract make him easily expendable. Add to that diminishing stuff and its a recipe for getting released.

 

what is he 30 now? Do you remember when he was in contention for the Cy Young?

risk Level? He pitched five games last year, not much to judge a man on. Kerry is coming in with a torn shoulder, and he over-ruled doctors, he definetly has a risk value and now a low contract. I see Wade as a guy that will get traded and be another Denise Eckersly, but not with the drinking problem.

 

LOL, Wade Miller was never in any serious contention for the Cy Young! He's a year older than Wood and like I said, Kerry was under contract and the fact that he is homegrown comes into play as well. Wade Miller is very easily expendable.

 

Wood's decision to rehab instead of surgery is probably a wise choice. He said he spoke with other players who successfully completed shoulder rehabs instead of going under the knife.

 

Miller does not equal Dennis Eckersly

 

Hope I don't sound too snobby but this is a guy ,wood, who has no formal education beyond High School he has been treated like a spoiled superstar since high school. I can't see an upside to a guy that hasn't finished a season in a cpl of years, home grown or not I got a gut feeling he will let us down again and be on injured list by July. Wood could make it through spring training that one year before his arm went out. I was at that spring training game when it went out, as well as the week before. Wood didn't hustle a bit. Soul searching may just tell me that I like Miller over Wood because of first impressions or it could be because he is injury proned and we payed the smuck 12 mill to sit on last years bench.

 

I get it, you don't like Kerry Wood but since when has academic achievement been a precursor to professional athletic success?

 

I get the feeling that you are basing your assessment of Wood (and Miller) on preception rather than actual career contributions.

Edited by 98navigator
Posted
If the Cubs could be as patient with him as they have been with 2 yr wonder Wood, then I think he will come around to the guy that was in contention for the Cy young

 

 

Are you kidding? "2 yr wonder Wood" has had more than two good years and he was under a longterm contract which is why the team has been patient with him. Kerry Wood wouldn't have survived this long without a tremendous upside. Wade Miller's age, risk level, and small contract make him easily expendable. Add to that diminishing stuff and its a recipe for getting released.

 

what is he 30 now? Do you remember when he was in contention for the Cy Young?

risk Level? He pitched five games last year, not much to judge a man on. Kerry is coming in with a torn shoulder, and he over-ruled doctors, he definetly has a risk value and now a low contract. I see Wade as a guy that will get traded and be another Denise Eckersly, but not with the drinking problem.

 

LOL, Wade Miller was never in any serious contention for the Cy Young! He's a year older than Wood and like I said, Kerry was under contract and the fact that he is homegrown comes into play as well. Wade Miller is very easily expendable.

 

Wood's decision to rehab instead of surgery is probably a wise choice. He said he spoke with other players who successfully completed shoulder rehabs instead of going under the knife.

 

Miller does not equal Dennis Eckersly

 

Hope I don't sound too snobby but this is a guy ,wood, who has no formal education beyond High School he has been treated like a spoiled superstar since high school. I can't see an upside to a guy that hasn't finished a season in a cpl of years, home grown or not I got a gut feeling he will let us down again and be on injured list by July. Wood could make it through spring training that one year before his arm went out. I was at that spring training game when it went out, as well as the week before. Wood didn't hustle a bit. Soul searching may just tell me that I like Miller over Wood because of first impressions or it could be because he is injury proned and we payed the smuck 12 mill to sit on last years bench.

 

Christ, you can't spell your name without a box of alphabits nearby, but you're bringing up his education? Yes, the "smuck" was "payed" 12 "mill", but that is the risk with pitchers. We've "payed" Miller more money than me or you will ever see to pitch terribly, what's the difference?

Posted

Both have declining stats ove the last three years. Miller impressed in 2001 and 2002 where he was considered a Cy Yng candidate. Wood 98 and 2003 impressive but not 'Mad-dog" impressive. The use of his cash in the past several years could go to signing Z long term.

 

the proper question to you is how many times has Wood been on the DL and how many times has Miller? How fast do you give up on either talent?

 

an education does play a lot in reasoning and judgement of injuries.

Posted (edited)
If the Cubs could be as patient with him as they have been with 2 yr wonder Wood, then I think he will come around to the guy that was in contention for the Cy young

 

 

Are you kidding? "2 yr wonder Wood" has had more than two good years and he was under a longterm contract which is why the team has been patient with him. Kerry Wood wouldn't have survived this long without a tremendous upside. Wade Miller's age, risk level, and small contract make him easily expendable. Add to that diminishing stuff and its a recipe for getting released.

 

what is he 30 now? Do you remember when he was in contention for the Cy Young?

risk Level? He pitched five games last year, not much to judge a man on. Kerry is coming in with a torn shoulder, and he over-ruled doctors, he definetly has a risk value and now a low contract. I see Wade as a guy that will get traded and be another Denise Eckersly, but not with the drinking problem.

 

LOL, Wade Miller was never in any serious contention for the Cy Young! He's a year older than Wood and like I said, Kerry was under contract and the fact that he is homegrown comes into play as well. Wade Miller is very easily expendable.

 

Wood's decision to rehab instead of surgery is probably a wise choice. He said he spoke with other players who successfully completed shoulder rehabs instead of going under the knife.

 

Miller does not equal Dennis Eckersly

 

Hope I don't sound too snobby but this is a guy ,wood, who has no formal education beyond High School he has been treated like a spoiled superstar since high school. I can't see an upside to a guy that hasn't finished a season in a cpl of years, home grown or not I got a gut feeling he will let us down again and be on injured list by July. Wood could make it through spring training that one year before his arm went out. I was at that spring training game when it went out, as well as the week before. Wood didn't hustle a bit. Soul searching may just tell me that I like Miller over Wood because of first impressions or it could be because he is injury proned and we payed the smuck 12 mill to sit on last years bench.

 

I want to put to rest the comparisons of Wood and Miller. Specifically, the idea that Wade Miller has been better than Kerry Wood in their careers...

 

First of all, they both have 8 seasons of active baseball. Wood started in 1998 but he did not pitch at all in 1999. Miller began his ML career in 1999.

 

Career Stats:

 

Wood Miller

ERA 3.68 4.00

Games 189 148

Game Starts 178 144

Complete games 5 1

Innings Pitched 1,128.2 880.2

Hits Allowed 875 814

Runs Allowed 492 427

Earned Runs 461 391

HR Allowed 128 103

Walks 546 371

Strikeouts 1,299 743

WHIP 1.26 1.35

OBA .317 .325

K/9 10.36 7.59

H/9 6.98 8.32

BB/9 4.35 3.79

K/BB 2.38 2.00

W/L 71/56 62/45

 

As you can see, Kerry Wood has been much more reliable (IP, GS) and far more dominant than Wade Miller during the course of their respective careers. Just think about how ridiculous Wood's numbers would be if he had been able to stay healthy! You complain because the guy made $12M last year but you give him no credit for sticking with the Cubs this year for, what amounts to, a lot rent contract this year?

 

 

The only thing Miller has over Wood is a better winning precentage which says more about the quality of the teams each pitcher played for than their respective numbers. Oh yeah, Kerry has also walked more guys on average but he also struck out way more batters than Miller...

 

Edit: I needed to correct the shutout stats. They were reversed. Wood has 5 Miller 1

Edited by 98navigator
Posted
If the Cubs could be as patient with him as they
Career Stats:

 

Wood Miller

ERA 3.68 4.00

Games 189 148

Game Starts 178 144

Complete games 1 5

Innings Pitched 1,128.2 880.2

Hits Allowed 875 814

Runs Allowed 492 427

Earned Runs 461 391

HR Allowed 128 103

Walks 546 371

Strikeouts 1,299 743

WHIP 1.26 1.35

OBA .317 .325

K/9 10.36 7.59

H/9 6.98 8.32

BB/9 4.35 3.79

K/BB 2.38 2.00

W/L 71/56 62/45

 

As you can see, Kerry Wood has been much more reliable (IP, GS) and far more dominant than Wade Miller during the course of their respective careers. Just think about how ridiculous Wood's numbers would be if he had been able to stay healthy! You complain because the guy made $12M last year but you give him no credit for sticking with the Cubs this year for, what amounts to, a lot rent contract this year?

 

 

The only thing Miller has over Wood is a better winning precentage which says more about the quality of the teams each pitcher played for than their respective numbers. Oh yeah, Kerry has also walked more guys on average but he also struck out way more batters than Miller...

 

Now you aren't going to cry for Wood's small salary, I'd kill for what he makes. You said it best and the if he could stay health is a big if. Lou should have marshall waiting in the wings.

Posted
If the Cubs could be as patient with him as they
Career Stats:

 

Wood Miller

ERA 3.68 4.00

Games 189 148

Game Starts 178 144

Complete games 1 5

Innings Pitched 1,128.2 880.2

Hits Allowed 875 814

Runs Allowed 492 427

Earned Runs 461 391

HR Allowed 128 103

Walks 546 371

Strikeouts 1,299 743

WHIP 1.26 1.35

OBA .317 .325

K/9 10.36 7.59

H/9 6.98 8.32

BB/9 4.35 3.79

K/BB 2.38 2.00

W/L 71/56 62/45

 

As you can see, Kerry Wood has been much more reliable (IP, GS) and far more dominant than Wade Miller during the course of their respective careers. Just think about how ridiculous Wood's numbers would be if he had been able to stay healthy! You complain because the guy made $12M last year but you give him no credit for sticking with the Cubs this year for, what amounts to, a lot rent contract this year?

 

 

The only thing Miller has over Wood is a better winning precentage which says more about the quality of the teams each pitcher played for than their respective numbers. Oh yeah, Kerry has also walked more guys on average but he also struck out way more batters than Miller...

 

Now you aren't going to cry for Wood's small salary, I'd kill for what he makes. You said it best and the if he could stay health is a big if. Lou should have marshall waiting in the wings.

 

I still don't get your gripe about Wood. Your contention has been Wade Miller is better but they have pitched the same number of seasons and Wood is CLEARLY superior. He's been more durable as evidenced by the higher number of games played, game starts (and that's saying something), and he's been more dominant (5 shutouts to 1 shutout, career WHIP, K/9, H/9, ERA, etc).

 

You just don't like Wood which is fine but don't imply that Miller is or has been the better pitcher because it isn't true. It's not hyperbole to say Wood's been one of the most dominant pitchers of his generation.

Posted

Wade Miller on his first ST start:

 

Link

 

"I'm not really changing my approach as far as going out there and doing anything different..."

 

..."I'm trying to put the ball over the plate with good stuff, and everything will fall into place."

 

"I'm just trying to go out and throw strikes and get outs, and the rest is going to come. It's up to [the Cubs] -- whatever they decide is up to them."

 

"That's up to them," Miller said as to where he fits. "As far as right now, I'm a starter. And I'll be a starter for awhile, as far as I'm concerned."
Posted
i dunno, i have a good feeling about Wade, if he performs to the lvl he was at at the end of last season i see lilly or marquis being more expendable than Wade
Posted
i dunno, i have a good feeling about Wade, if he performs to the lvl he was at at the end of last season i see lilly or marquis being more expendable than Wade

 

Yeah, you see it that way. But will the cubs see it that way. Even if Miller is a great bargain and pitching well, they might still see him as an injury risk. And since they've been burned in the past, they might rather stick with Lilly and Marquis. And I can certainly see the logic in that.

Posted
i dunno, i have a good feeling about Wade, if he performs to the lvl he was at at the end of last season i see lilly or marquis being more expendable than Wade

 

Yeah, you see it that way. But will the cubs see it that way. Even if Miller is a great bargain and pitching well, they might still see him as an injury risk. And since they've been burned in the past, they might rather stick with Lilly and Marquis. And I can certainly see the logic in that.

ive only made a cursory look into his injuries, but from what ive seen, the shoulder seems to be the root of his problems, its been fixed(seems so anyway)

anyway, i hope cubs brass isnt quick to trade him, i see him being pretty damn valuable in the long(july or so)run....this guy should net good stuff at the deadline, we need to hold on to him till then even if he is just in the pen

Posted
i dunno, i have a good feeling about Wade, if he performs to the lvl he was at at the end of last season i see lilly or marquis being more expendable than Wade

 

I just don't see it. The Cubs are committed to Lilly and Marquis for the foreseeable future. I'm not going to get too excited one way or the other at this point but, if I were going to be prematurely exuberant, it would be about the outing Marquis had. He's definitely going to be on this staff so we have to hope that he rectifies his fly ball problems and starts throwing his sinker more. If his first start is any indication, it looks like, the tweaking he and Rothschild did was a success. He pitched two efficient innings (20 total pitches) and got mostly ground balls.

Posted
i dunno, i have a good feeling about Wade, if he performs to the lvl he was at at the end of last season i see lilly or marquis being more expendable than Wade

 

I just don't see it. The Cubs are committed to Lilly and Marquis for the foreseeable future. I'm not going to get too excited one way or the other at this point but, if I were going to be prematurely exuberant, it would be about the outing Marquis had. He's definitely going to be on this staff so we have to hope that he rectifies his fly ball problems and starts throwing his sinker more. If his first start is any indication, it looks like, the tweaking he and Rothschild did was a success. He pitched two efficient (20 pitch) innings and got mostly ground balls.

maybe i just have some unfounded man love for Miller, but i only see him becoming more valuable, to trade him prematuraly is a mistake in my eyes...i was in texas from 2000-2005 so i got a real good look at miller, not so much with lilly and marquis, if wade comes back 7/8 to his earlier self, he is gonna do good things for this team(even if just as a trade piece) trading him early will be a mistake though
Posted
i dunno, i have a good feeling about Wade, if he performs to the lvl he was at at the end of last season i see lilly or marquis being more expendable than Wade

 

I just don't see it. The Cubs are committed to Lilly and Marquis for the foreseeable future. I'm not going to get too excited one way or the other at this point but, if I were going to be prematurely exuberant, it would be about the outing Marquis had. He's definitely going to be on this staff so we have to hope that he rectifies his fly ball problems and starts throwing his sinker more. If his first start is any indication, it looks like, the tweaking he and Rothschild did was a success. He pitched two efficient (20 pitch) innings and got mostly ground balls.

maybe i just have some unfounded man love for Miller, but i only see him becoming more valuable, to trade him prematuraly is a mistake in my eyes...i was in texas from 2000-2005 so i got a real good look at miller, not so much with lilly and marquis, if wade comes back 3/4 to his earlier self, he is gonna do good things for this team(even if just as a trade piece) trading him early will be a mistake though

 

I agree with you that trading him early would be a mistake. I don't think Hendry will trade him until Prior proves he is healthy (by pitching effectively a few times through the rotation). If all goes well, I could see Miller being traded by May. If everyone is healthy, Prior should get the last spot in the rotation over Miller. That means Wuertz, most likely, is headed back to AAA with Novoa. I can see the Cubs sticking Miller in the bullpen as insurance until the rotation looks stable. Miller and Cotts would both fill a longman role (they'd have to keep Cotts stretched out as insurance for when Miller is moved...) If Prior has a setback Miller will start.

Posted
I had a pretty good argument going with another cubs fan in a bar about who would you rather keep Marquis or Miller assuming dropping one would not subject the team to any sort of financial penalty. I was in Marquis corner, and the other guy was on Miller's side. His main argument was the possibility of Miller reverting back to his 02 form, and Marquis making too much money. I thought that Marquis was much more likely to revert to his 04 season numbers that Miller was in reverting to his 02-03 numbers because of his health coinciding with his decreased velocity. We both understood each other's arguments and agreed to disagree. Then he said he would rather have a completely healthy Miller over a completely healthy Wood. I was not pleased.

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