Big Z will leave

[Roast]

 

If Hendry loses Zambrano, the Grim Reaper cometh.

 

I will cometh as well. I would be BEYOND pissed off if we lost out on Z

[C.C.]

How does Hendry not screw this up? Either he trades Z and endures the backlash or pays near FA market value for a guy with legit injury concerns.

 

Or you let him become a FA and get top draft picks. You're clearly not going to trade him before the deadline at this point, when you've went all-in to win this year.

 

I agree. Barring serveral major setbacks and injuries, I can't see us not contending this year. You aren't going to trade Z if you are in the race. Just won't happen.

[CubColtPacer]

I could be wrong, but Carlos has stated that he wants to be a Cub for the rest of his career.

 

Jim Hendry failed on Carlos a year or two ago, when he SHOULD of offered him an extension of some sort for less money, instead of waiting until the final year of his contract.

 

This guy is getting paid pennys compared to the other pitches of his caliber. Give him his money and end it.

 

Well, I wouldn't say pennies-I mean, Z is going to make somewhere between 11 and 15.5 million this year (depending on if he actually goes to arbitration or settles for something in the middle). There are so many variables that it's hard for me to recommend what Hendry should do with Z-the two big variables are 1)what he's demanding, and 2)what other teams would give up for him. The first one is more known, but the second one could be anything-trades are funny things, sometimes a star gets great talent in return, and sometimes for some reason they just don't. Hendry has to add those two together with 3) Carlos's chance of injury and basically make the best guess he can, the option that is the most likely to work, and then simply hope that it does.

[Sammy Sofa]

I would not sign Z to a 5 plus year deal worth 18 mill per. I don't know if I'd sign any pitcher to that sort of deal, lest his name were Koufax, Drysdale, Gibson, Matthewson, Maddux, Clemens....you get the point.

 

I think Z for ARod (assuming he agrees to an extension) is a good deal for us, but that is just me.

 

I couldn't agree more. Z is a hell of a player, but ARod is possibly the best SS of all time, and the Yankees are prime to be talked into moving him if the right pitcher came along (and ARod has said he'd go if the Yankees came to him and said they wanted to move him). You'd get yourself an uber-elite player that plays every day as opposed to a really good pitcher that pitches every 5 days who has worrisome injury possibilites as he gets older.

[TB_11]

The decision to trade Z for prospects would be downright dumb. Teams pray for players in the minors to come up and display the talent and durability that Z has shown; prospects like that don't come up every year for every team. The Cubs have the financial resources to pay Z a contract that will keep him on the team, and the rest of their moves indicate they're playing to win now.

 

FWIW the Beltran analogy has a huge flaw: the Royals didn't have the money to pay Beltran what he was going to demand as a FA, so their only choice was to trade Beltran for prospects.

[Sammy Sofa]

How does Hendry not screw this up? Either he trades Z and endures the backlash or pays near FA market value for a guy with legit injury concerns.

 

Or you let him become a FA and get top draft picks. You're clearly not going to trade him before the deadline at this point, when you've went all-in to win this year.

 

I agree. Barring serveral major setbacks and injuries, I can't see us not contending this year. You aren't going to trade Z if you are in the race. Just won't happen.

 

Unless you get a player or players who impact your team NOW. Z doesn't HAVE to be traded for prospects or prospects alone.

[Outshined_One]

FWIW the Beltran analogy has a huge flaw: the Royals didn't have the money to pay Beltran what he was going to demand as a FA, so their only choice was to trade Beltran for prospects.

 

It was also a three team deal involving Octavio Dotel.

[PrimeTime]

Zambrano is kinda looking like this guy while refering to himself in the third person

http://www.sccs.swarthmore.edu/users/03/carey/the%20rock.jpg

[davearm]

Reminder: "Nothing" in this case = 2 draft picks, in all likelihood 2 of the Top 50.

I don't mean to blow off the draft picks entirely. Just mostly.

 

Draftees will give the bigleague club nothing for many years. As a general rule (and yes I know there are exceptions), figure something like 3 years development time for a college kid, and 5 years for a highschooler.

 

That's *if* these draftees even reach the bigs.

 

For intents and purposes, that seems darn close to nothing.

[davearm]

FWIW the Beltran analogy has a huge flaw: the Royals didn't have the money to pay Beltran what he was going to demand as a FA, so their only choice was to trade Beltran for prospects.

That's not a flaw. In fact the situations are perfectly analogous.

 

The only reason the Cubs would deal Zambrano is if they can't (or won't) pay Z what he is going to demand as a FA.

 

At that point, their choice is between taking the players he could be traded for, or taking the draft picks when he leaves. Same exact choice the Royals had with Beltran.

[RichHillIsABeast]

The decision to trade Z for prospects would be downright dumb. Teams pray for players in the minors to come up and display the talent and durability that Z has shown; prospects like that don't come up every year for every team. The Cubs have the financial resources to pay Z a contract that will keep him on the team, and the rest of their moves indicate they're playing to win now.

 

FWIW the Beltran analogy has a huge flaw: the Royals didn't have the money to pay Beltran what he was going to demand as a FA, so their only choice was to trade Beltran for prospects.

 

There is no difference between Z and a FA if he's going after Zito money. The fact that he came up through our org doesn't matter, other than the abuse Dusty and company put on his arm. Who cares if he was our prospect? That has no impact on the current decision - other than him giving us a hometown discount, which he isn't.

 

I'd rather have control of a guy like Weaver for 5+ years and another prospect or 2 than Z with a Zito contract.

[CubColtPacer]

FWIW the Beltran analogy has a huge flaw: the Royals didn't have the money to pay Beltran what he was going to demand as a FA, so their only choice was to trade Beltran for prospects.

That's not a flaw. In fact the situations are perfectly analogous.

 

The only reason the Cubs would deal Zambrano is if they can't (or won't) pay Z what he is going to demand as a FA.

 

At that point, their choice is between taking the players he could be traded for, or taking the draft picks when he leaves. Same exact choice the Royals had with Beltran.

 

No, the Cubs also might deal Z if they feel the prospects would be a better option than trading Z, but that they would sign Z as a fallback option-the Royals did not have that luxury of having that fallback option.

[erik316wttn]

There is no way that Hendry can say he's serious about winning now and then letting Z walk.

 

If a deal is not done soon we're going to lose our best pitcher since Maddux under very similar circumstances.

[TB_11]

The decision to trade Z for prospects would be downright dumb. Teams pray for players in the minors to come up and display the talent and durability that Z has shown; prospects like that don't come up every year for every team. The Cubs have the financial resources to pay Z a contract that will keep him on the team, and the rest of their moves indicate they're playing to win now.

 

FWIW the Beltran analogy has a huge flaw: the Royals didn't have the money to pay Beltran what he was going to demand as a FA, so their only choice was to trade Beltran for prospects.

 

There is no difference between Z and a FA if he's going after Zito money. The fact that he came up through our org doesn't matter, other than the abuse Dusty and company put on his arm. Who cares if he was our prospect? That has no impact on the current decision - other than him giving us a hometown discount, which he isn't.

 

I'd rather have control of a guy like Weaver for 5+ years and another prospect or 2 than Z with a Zito contract.

 

You misread my post. I'm not saying the fact that Z came up in our org should win him any additional dollars. I'm saying the odds of seeing the amount of production we get out of Z from a prospect or prospects is very slim, no matter how highly regarded they might be.

[RichHillIsABeast]

The decision to trade Z for prospects would be downright dumb. Teams pray for players in the minors to come up and display the talent and durability that Z has shown; prospects like that don't come up every year for every team. The Cubs have the financial resources to pay Z a contract that will keep him on the team, and the rest of their moves indicate they're playing to win now.

 

FWIW the Beltran analogy has a huge flaw: the Royals didn't have the money to pay Beltran what he was going to demand as a FA, so their only choice was to trade Beltran for prospects.

 

There is no difference between Z and a FA if he's going after Zito money. The fact that he came up through our org doesn't matter, other than the abuse Dusty and company put on his arm. Who cares if he was our prospect? That has no impact on the current decision - other than him giving us a hometown discount, which he isn't.

 

I'd rather have control of a guy like Weaver for 5+ years and another prospect or 2 than Z with a Zito contract.

 

You misread my post. I'm not saying the fact that Z came up in our org should win him any additional dollars. I'm saying the odds of seeing the amount of production we get out of Z from a prospect or prospects is very slim, no matter how highly regarded they might be.

 

The amount of production you're going to get out of a legit elite prospect per dollar far exceeds what Z gives you.

 

Z is a stud, but if he wants to be paid like Zito, that counts against his value to a ballclub in a big way.

[UMFan83]

I love Z to death, but referring to yourself in the 3rd person? Who the heck do you think you are? Don't turn into Albert Pujols and turn into a huge prima donna.

[Twiggy]

Lock up Big Z and move along Hendry. What is another 18 million per season? :D

[CUBZ99]

I think we are all forgetting that Marquis had more wins than Z over the last 3 years. :wink:

[Ding Dong Johnson]

"Jimmy's under the boards. Jimmy's in the open. Jimmy makes the shot."

[CuseCubFan69]

Reminder: "Nothing" in this case = 2 draft picks, in all likelihood 2 of the Top 50.

I don't mean to blow off the draft picks entirely. Just mostly.

 

Draftees will give the bigleague club nothing for many years. As a general rule (and yes I know there are exceptions), figure something like 3 years development time for a college kid, and 5 years for a highschooler.

 

That's *if* these draftees even reach the bigs.

 

For intents and purposes, that seems darn close to nothing.

 

My feelings are if the 2 picks are better than any thing offered then hold onto him. I would try to sign him but if that can't be done let's look around for the best offer and at the very worst the Cubs get 2 picks.

 

Z is not going to take a hometown discount like Ramirez did and he made that comment before about Ramirez not getting the moist bang for the buck. I do not blame Z for getting the most cash that he can in any way and I hope this works out for the Cubs and if Z is on the team or not it doesn't matter to me as long as the team is improved.

[daske17]

I love Z to death, but referring to yourself in the 3rd person? Who the heck do you think you are? Don't turn into Albert Pujols and turn into a huge prima donna.

 

Am I the only one who immediately thinks of Seinfeld episode where George starts talking about himself in the third person every time an athlete pulls this?

 

George is getting angry!

[Danny82]

FWIW the Beltran analogy has a huge flaw: the Royals didn't have the money to pay Beltran what he was going to demand as a FA, so their only choice was to trade Beltran for prospects.

That's not a flaw. In fact the situations are perfectly analogous.

 

The only reason the Cubs would deal Zambrano is if they can't (or won't) pay Z what he is going to demand as a FA.

 

At that point, their choice is between taking the players he could be traded for, or taking the draft picks when he leaves. Same exact choice the Royals had with Beltran.

 

Another good comparison is the Randy Johnson for Freddy Garcia, John Halama, and Carlos Guillen trade. And Johnson was notably better then than Z is now. I think some people here are overvaluing what Z should fetch on the trade market. Like I said in that other thread, I would be ecstatic with Jared Weaver and Howie Kendrick...although that is purely speculation on his potential value.

Edited February 13, 2007 by Danny82

[cubweiser03]

When has Jim Hendry not spent money on players he likes? Overpaying for him....thats another story. Xerox a copy of Zitos contract and just change the names to Zambrano.

[Abe Frohman]

Considering the fact that Hendry gave Soriano 136 million, why shouldn't he pay Zambrano? Of those two players, you would be nuts to rather have Soriano over Zambrano.

 

Zambrano is the ace a team needs in the playoffs. The Cubs don't have a player more valuable than Carlos. They have to pay him, and he really deserves it.

 

If the management holds to their stated attitude that the Cubs must "win now, no matter the cost" - they will lock Zambrano up, no matter what the cost.

[vance_the_cubs_fan]

My first choice is to make every effort to sign him. Assuming that becomes impossible or too burdensome, we have to let the season progress some before moving on anything else.

 

If we weren't trying to win this year, then it would obviously be better to trade him now. However, it is clear the Cubs want to and plan to make a run at it in 2007. With that being the case, our pitching staff cannot at this point handle a trade of Zambrano. As long as the Cubs are in the race, Zambrano will be kept. That may run the risk of losing him for merely draft picks, but that's the risk that would need to be taken. A team serious about winning in the current season doesn't trade their best pitcher in the midst of a penant race.

 

Now, if the Cubs begin to stumble a bit where it appears the playoffs are a long-shot, then yes entertain all offers for Zambrano. My guess, depending on teams' need of pitching, those offers could be substantial.