John Manuel Answered My Question about Samardja

[vance_the_cubs_fan]

Link.

 

Vance (Monroe, LA): John, Thanks for taking the time to talk to us. How good of a prospect is Jeff Samarzdja? Where do you put his ceiling and where would you place him as far as rankings?

 

John Manuel : (2:12 PM ET ) He has a chance to be an elite player; there are not many prospects of whom the same can be said. If he'd have given up football before our Prospect Handbook (available at baseballamerica.com . . . ) had come out, I probably would have ranked him around No. 46 in my top 50, ahead of Glen Perkins and Jason Hirsh, guys like that who are polished, in Triple-A, but profile more as middle- to back-of-the-rotation types. Samardzija has had his fastball sit in the 95-97 mph range and touched 99; it's a special arm, and he's clearly very athletic.

[vance_the_cubs_fan]

Another Cub question asked...

 

Corey (NE): What are your long term thoughts on these two teenage pitchers: Mark Pawelek (Cubs) and Mark Rogers (Brewers). Do either of them have the make-up to be a future #1??

 

John Manuel : (2:26 PM ET ) On the last question, I'll say no . . . Rogers just had pretty major surgery (http://www.baseballamerica.com/today/prospects/news/263243.html)

 

I'm like the biggest Mark Rogers fan who writes about baseball that I know of, but even I am pretty down on him after this. Pawelek showed up overweight to spring training last year and you just don't associate that with the makeup to be a future No. 1. Pawelek's the better prospect at this point because he hasn't had a SLAP lesion or arm surgery of any kind that I know of.

[KingCubsFan]

Link.

 

Vance (Monroe, LA): John, Thanks for taking the time to talk to us. How good of a prospect is Jeff Samarzdja? Where do you put his ceiling and where would you place him as far as rankings?

 

John Manuel : (2:12 PM ET ) He has a chance to be an elite player; there are not many prospects of whom the same can be said. If he'd have given up football before our Prospect Handbook (available at baseballamerica.com . . . ) had come out, I probably would have ranked him around No. 46 in my top 50, ahead of Glen Perkins and Jason Hirsh, guys like that who are polished, in Triple-A, but profile more as middle- to back-of-the-rotation types. Samardzija has had his fastball sit in the 95-97 mph range and touched 99; it's a special arm, and he's clearly very athletic.

I'm surprised at how many people see him as an elite prosepect, as he currently has no secondary pitches. Plus, there's no telling how him arm will react to a full season's worth of pitching. And although he can touch 98, he currently sits at 91-92 most of the time. It will be interesting to see how he does this year, because it seems like the Cubs are going to rush him

[CaliforniaRaisin]

Link.

 

Vance (Monroe, LA): John, Thanks for taking the time to talk to us. How good of a prospect is Jeff Samarzdja? Where do you put his ceiling and where would you place him as far as rankings?

 

John Manuel : (2:12 PM ET ) He has a chance to be an elite player; there are not many prospects of whom the same can be said. If he'd have given up football before our Prospect Handbook (available at baseballamerica.com . . . ) had come out, I probably would have ranked him around No. 46 in my top 50, ahead of Glen Perkins and Jason Hirsh, guys like that who are polished, in Triple-A, but profile more as middle- to back-of-the-rotation types. Samardzija has had his fastball sit in the 95-97 mph range and touched 99; it's a special arm, and he's clearly very athletic.

I'm surprised at how many people see him as an elite prosepect, as he currently has no secondary pitches. Plus, there's no telling how him arm will react to a full season's worth of pitching. And although he can touch 98, he currently sits at 91-92 most of the time. It will be interesting to see how he does this year, because it seems like the Cubs are going to rush him

 

Where did you get the 91-92 from? I heard 92-94 when his arm was all the way back in Peoria and apparently Manuel seems to think he was 95-97 (see bolded).

 

In terms of the lack of secondary pitches, I think most feel confident that they will come along given how quickly he picked up as much as he did on his changeup and slider while at Boise/Peoria. He's certainly regarded highly because of how projectable he is.

[craig]

Time will tell, but I think it's exciting to see a variety of sources who are really excited about Samardz's potential. Wilken obviously. Callis, now Manuel. Top 50 for a guy like that, Manuel clearly isn't looking at him as a back-of-first-round talent.

 

It's perhaps not surprising, given his lack of experience and the rather weird timing of his brief summer pro experience. But it's been interesting to see what a range of scouting perspectives there have been about him.

 

King scouts him as a 91-92 mph guy mostly, nice but hardly extraordinary. Manuel refers to the 95-97, and Wilken seemed to believe that mid-90's could be semi-routine, rather than resting at 91-92 and hitting 95 once ever other start. King scouts him with no secondary pitches. Wilken scouts his slideer as being very promising. In the BA report about the Northwest League, I believe a scout was quoted as saying that Samardz' fastball was fast but really straight. But in the milb interview with Fleita, he referred to Sam's fastball as having a lot of sink to it.

 

A dude with a straight 91-92 fastball and no secondary pitches, that's not much of a prospect. The same dude with a 93-97 mph sinker and a plus slider, that kind of guy is a really good prospect.

 

We'll see in time which scouts are most accurate.

[Mephistopheles]

Personally I think you can take the stuff he's thrown previously and throw it out the door. We do not know how his football workouts affected his velocity and "jump" on his fastball (call it the Mark Prior 03 effect). The latter of which Samardzija didn't have regardless. So much of his offspeed development time has been hindered by his football commitments. He'd go months without pitching in the past so his offspeed junk never could develop any consistency. Given his plus-plus armspeed and his natural athleticism I would expect him to at the least develop an above average slider.

[goonys evil twin]

Personally I think you can take the stuff he's thrown previously and throw it out the door.

 

You can't do that. You can't just assume he'll get better by leaving football. What he threw before is where he's starting from, and we can only hope for improvement.

[Mephistopheles]

Yes you can, in fact we saw a glimpse of the difference last year.

[CuseCubFan69]

I think he will have a Novoa type of career, possibly a 8th inning set up guy.

[goonys evil twin]

Yes you can, in fact we saw a glimpse of the difference last year.

 

A glimpse of the difference? He hadn't even given up football yet.

[CubColtPacer]

Yes you can, in fact we saw a glimpse of the difference last year.

 

A glimpse of the difference? He hadn't even given up football yet.

 

True-but he didn't do nearly as much of the training for football as he normally did. In fact, that was a big concern for his senior season of football that maybe his training and timing would be off of what it had been the season before. His total season was also longer, which meant that he had more time consecutively to work on the break of his offspeed stuff. Obviously, this year, both of those things will be taken even another step.

[CubinNY]

Time will tell, but I think it's exciting to see a variety of sources who are really excited about Samardz's potential. Wilken obviously. Callis, now Manuel. Top 50 for a guy like that, Manuel clearly isn't looking at him as a back-of-first-round talent.

 

It's perhaps not surprising, given his lack of experience and the rather weird timing of his brief summer pro experience. But it's been interesting to see what a range of scouting perspectives there have been about him.

 

King scouts him as a 91-92 mph guy mostly, nice but hardly extraordinary. Manuel refers to the 95-97, and Wilken seemed to believe that mid-90's could be semi-routine, rather than resting at 91-92 and hitting 95 once ever other start. King scouts him with no secondary pitches. Wilken scouts his slideer as being very promising. In the BA report about the Northwest League, I believe a scout was quoted as saying that Samardz' fastball was fast but really straight. But in the milb interview with Fleita, he referred to Sam's fastball as having a lot of sink to it.

 

A dude with a straight 91-92 fastball and no secondary pitches, that's not much of a prospect. The same dude with a 93-97 mph sinker and a plus slider, that kind of guy is a really good prospect.

 

We'll see in time which scouts are most accurate.

 

Hype and more hype. With the variabliity of the scouting reports I am going to go with caution.

 

He's 22 and his growth as a baseball player has been [expletive] for four years. He can't get those years back. No amount of athleticism or quick learning will get them back. Even at ND his numbers (besides wins) weren't all that spectacular. Most people blame football, but I don't know if that's the case at all.

 

I'm hoping the hype is justified, but I wouldn't bet on it.

[Mephistopheles]

Exactly. For the first time last spring he didn't have to do spring football workouts and play baseball at the same time. His velocity jumped from topping out around 92 to topping out around 98-99 by the end of the season. He underwent quite a rapid change.

[davearm]

I'm surprised at how many people see him as an elite prosepect, as he currently has no secondary pitches. Plus, there's no telling how him arm will react to a full season's worth of pitching. And although he can touch 98, he currently sits at 91-92 most of the time. It will be interesting to see how he does this year, because it seems like the Cubs are going to rush him

The same can be said of Carlos Zambrano.

[goonys evil twin]

I'm surprised at how many people see him as an elite prosepect, as he currently has no secondary pitches. Plus, there's no telling how him arm will react to a full season's worth of pitching. And although he can touch 98, he currently sits at 91-92 most of the time. It will be interesting to see how he does this year, because it seems like the Cubs are going to rush him

The same can be said of Carlos Zambrano.

 

That he has no secondary pitches and there's no telling how his arm will react to a full season's worth of pitching? There's no reason to invoke Carlos's name. He sits and 91-92 due to great movement.

[Handlebar McSkullet]

Time will tell, but I think it's exciting to see a variety of sources who are really excited about Samardz's potential. Wilken obviously. Callis, now Manuel. Top 50 for a guy like that, Manuel clearly isn't looking at him as a back-of-first-round talent.

 

It's perhaps not surprising, given his lack of experience and the rather weird timing of his brief summer pro experience. But it's been interesting to see what a range of scouting perspectives there have been about him.

 

King scouts him as a 91-92 mph guy mostly, nice but hardly extraordinary. Manuel refers to the 95-97, and Wilken seemed to believe that mid-90's could be semi-routine, rather than resting at 91-92 and hitting 95 once ever other start. King scouts him with no secondary pitches. Wilken scouts his slideer as being very promising. In the BA report about the Northwest League, I believe a scout was quoted as saying that Samardz' fastball was fast but really straight. But in the milb interview with Fleita, he referred to Sam's fastball as having a lot of sink to it.

 

A dude with a straight 91-92 fastball and no secondary pitches, that's not much of a prospect. The same dude with a 93-97 mph sinker and a plus slider, that kind of guy is a really good prospect.

 

We'll see in time which scouts are most accurate.

 

Hype and more hype. With the variabliity of the scouting reports I am going to go with caution.

 

He's 22 and his growth as a baseball player has been [expletive] for four years. He can't get those years back. No amount of athleticism or quick learning will get them back. Even at ND his numbers (besides wins) weren't all that spectacular. Most people blame football, but I don't know if that's the case at all.

 

I'm hoping the hype is justified, but I wouldn't bet on it.

 

Playing college baseball is not "retarding progress". I could also spin this and say he hasn't thrown as much as other prospects have, giving him a fresher arm.

[UBlink]

Time will tell, but I think it's exciting to see a variety of sources who are really excited about Samardz's potential. Wilken obviously. Callis, now Manuel. Top 50 for a guy like that, Manuel clearly isn't looking at him as a back-of-first-round talent.

 

It's perhaps not surprising, given his lack of experience and the rather weird timing of his brief summer pro experience. But it's been interesting to see what a range of scouting perspectives there have been about him.

 

King scouts him as a 91-92 mph guy mostly, nice but hardly extraordinary. Manuel refers to the 95-97, and Wilken seemed to believe that mid-90's could be semi-routine, rather than resting at 91-92 and hitting 95 once ever other start. King scouts him with no secondary pitches. Wilken scouts his slideer as being very promising. In the BA report about the Northwest League, I believe a scout was quoted as saying that Samardz' fastball was fast but really straight. But in the milb interview with Fleita, he referred to Sam's fastball as having a lot of sink to it.

 

A dude with a straight 91-92 fastball and no secondary pitches, that's not much of a prospect. The same dude with a 93-97 mph sinker and a plus slider, that kind of guy is a really good prospect.

 

We'll see in time which scouts are most accurate.

 

Hype and more hype. With the variabliity of the scouting reports I am going to go with caution.

 

He's 22 and his growth as a baseball player has been [expletive] for four years. He can't get those years back. No amount of athleticism or quick learning will get them back. Even at ND his numbers (besides wins) weren't all that spectacular. Most people blame football, but I don't know if that's the case at all.

 

I'm hoping the hype is justified, but I wouldn't bet on it.

 

Playing college baseball is not "retarding progress". I could also spin this and say he hasn't thrown as much as other prospects have, giving him a fresher arm.

 

One thing it definitely didn't [expletive] was his negotiating leverage. A player with viable alternatives seems to do much better in terms of contract negotiation.

[CubinNY]

Time will tell, but I think it's exciting to see a variety of sources who are really excited about Samardz's potential. Wilken obviously. Callis, now Manuel. Top 50 for a guy like that, Manuel clearly isn't looking at him as a back-of-first-round talent.

 

It's perhaps not surprising, given his lack of experience and the rather weird timing of his brief summer pro experience. But it's been interesting to see what a range of scouting perspectives there have been about him.

 

King scouts him as a 91-92 mph guy mostly, nice but hardly extraordinary. Manuel refers to the 95-97, and Wilken seemed to believe that mid-90's could be semi-routine, rather than resting at 91-92 and hitting 95 once ever other start. King scouts him with no secondary pitches. Wilken scouts his slideer as being very promising. In the BA report about the Northwest League, I believe a scout was quoted as saying that Samardz' fastball was fast but really straight. But in the milb interview with Fleita, he referred to Sam's fastball as having a lot of sink to it.

 

A dude with a straight 91-92 fastball and no secondary pitches, that's not much of a prospect. The same dude with a 93-97 mph sinker and a plus slider, that kind of guy is a really good prospect.

 

We'll see in time which scouts are most accurate.

 

Hype and more hype. With the variabliity of the scouting reports I am going to go with caution.

 

He's 22 and his growth as a baseball player has been [expletive] for four years. He can't get those years back. No amount of athleticism or quick learning will get them back. Even at ND his numbers (besides wins) weren't all that spectacular. Most people blame football, but I don't know if that's the case at all.

 

I'm hoping the hype is justified, but I wouldn't bet on it.

 

Playing college baseball is not "retarding progress". I could also spin this and say he hasn't thrown as much as other prospects have, giving him a fresher arm.

 

He hasn't played college baseball full time. He's split time between football and baseball. From all indications, he has a decent fastball and not much else. Not many college pitchers are that highly regarded with only one pitch, as craig pointed out.

 

A fresh arm? We don't know how his arm will hold up in a full season of professional baseball.

[craig]

...From all indications, he has a decent fastball and not much else. Not many college pitchers are that highly regarded with only one pitch, as craig pointed out.

 

A fresh arm? We don't know how his arm will hold up in a full season of professional baseball.

 

NY, seems to me it's obvious that there's a real risk that he won't be any good. He's no sure thing, not even close. And where there are differing scouting evals, it's certainly possible that the favorable ones will not end up vindicated.

 

But it almost seems like you're going to the far extreme. You've seemed to take the view that favorable scouting evals are "hype" (which implies not substantive), and he doesn't have much more than a decent fastball.

 

If he's just a decent-fastball guy with nothing else, it raises a conundrum about why Callis and Manuel rate him top 50; about why the Cubs paid him $10 (even after having had him for some games in which they could see him for the fraud he may be); and about why apparently at least a dozen teams viewed him as at least a solid middle-upper first-round talent pre-draft.

 

There are two easy ways to resolve the conundrum. One is to take the view that Callis, Manuel, the Cubs, and perhaps also teams that viewed his talent (if not his lack of commitment) as clear first round are all dopes. Why waste even a 1st round pick on a dude with nothing more than a decent fastball, much less a $10 bonus or a top-50 ranking?

 

A second possible resolution is that perhaps the premise is wrong. Perhaps he does have more than just a "decent" fastball. If so, then maybe it's not so puzzling why he's being hyped beyond the norm for guys with nothing more than decent fastballs.

[CubinNY]

...From all indications, he has a decent fastball and not much else. Not many college pitchers are that highly regarded with only one pitch, as craig pointed out.

 

A fresh arm? We don't know how his arm will hold up in a full season of professional baseball.

 

NY, seems to me it's obvious that there's a real risk that he won't be any good. He's no sure thing, not even close. And where there are differing scouting evals, it's certainly possible that the favorable ones will not end up vindicated.

 

But it almost seems like you're going to the far extreme. You've seemed to take the view that favorable scouting evals are "hype" (which implies not substantive), and he doesn't have much more than a decent fastball.

 

If he's just a decent-fastball guy with nothing else, it raises a conundrum about why Callis and Manuel rate him top 50; about why the Cubs paid him $10 (even after having had him for some games in which they could see him for the fraud he may be); and about why apparently at least a dozen teams viewed him as at least a solid middle-upper first-round talent pre-draft.

 

There are two easy ways to resolve the conundrum. One is to take the view that Callis, Manuel, the Cubs, and perhaps also teams that viewed his talent (if not his lack of commitment) as clear first round are all dopes. Why waste even a 1st round pick on a dude with nothing more than a decent fastball, much less a $10 bonus or a top-50 ranking?

 

A second possible resolution is that perhaps the premise is wrong. Perhaps he does have more than just a "decent" fastball. If so, then maybe it's not so puzzling why he's being hyped beyond the norm for guys with nothing more than decent fastballs.

 

In this instance I am taking the scouting reports at face value. I mean, that's all the real data we have. Overall, I think scouts serve a useful purpose, but the nature of the business says they are wrong far more often then they are right.

 

This is one example where the reports vary widely. This leads me to be very cautious.

 

I am hoping all the good things the scouts say are true. However, that doesn't change the fact that he's 22 and has been a part-time baseball player for the last four years. He's got a lot to learn and a lot of pressure. Maybe his college experience will help him in that regard but at this point he's just another prospect.

 

I think the fact that he played football at an over-hyped football program has generalized to him.

 

It doesn't really matter, we'll be finding out soon enough.

[davearm]

I'm surprised at how many people see him as an elite prosepect, as he currently has no secondary pitches. Plus, there's no telling how him arm will react to a full season's worth of pitching. And although he can touch 98, he currently sits at 91-92 most of the time. It will be interesting to see how he does this year, because it seems like the Cubs are going to rush him

The same can be said of Carlos Zambrano.

 

That he has no secondary pitches and there's no telling how his arm will react to a full season's worth of pitching? There's no reason to invoke Carlos's name. He sits and 91-92 due to great movement.

I thought the bolding made it pretty clear that the comparison was based on each guy having similar velocity, and not the other stuff you latched onto.

 

The point being, of all the reasons to be guarded about Samardzija's future, velocity isn't one of them. If Samardzija ultimately busts, it won't be because he "sits at 91-92 most of the time."

[Lefty]

I am concerned that this guy didn't have a great K ratio in college.

 

On the bright side, the fact that he hasn't pitched that much is a good thing. There is a limit to how many pitches a young arm can throw. Did you know that in 50+ years of the Little League World Series only one pitcher has made it to MLB? Wilson Alvarez. And the Notre Dame guy's athleticism is a positive as far as overall fitness and adaptability.

 

He probably has a greater chance of failure than your typical late first round pick, but there's a greater chance that he is John Smoltz. Is that a good trade-off? It's an opinion.

[KingCubsFan]

I'm surprised at how many people see him as an elite prosepect, as he currently has no secondary pitches. Plus, there's no telling how him arm will react to a full season's worth of pitching. And although he can touch 98, he currently sits at 91-92 most of the time. It will be interesting to see how he does this year, because it seems like the Cubs are going to rush him

The same can be said of Carlos Zambrano.

 

That he has no secondary pitches and there's no telling how his arm will react to a full season's worth of pitching? There's no reason to invoke Carlos's name. He sits and 91-92 due to great movement.

I thought the bolding made it pretty clear that the comparison was based on each guy having similar velocity, and not the other stuff you latched onto.

 

The point being, of all the reasons to be guarded about Samardzija's future, velocity isn't one of them. If Samardzija ultimately busts, it won't be because he "sits at 91-92 most of the time."

Actually, it could be part of the reason since there doesn't appear to be any indication that his fastball has Zambrano's movement, nor does he seem to have the control of someone like Mark Prior. Considering Samardzija's main draw is the fact that he has the ability to throw it in the upper 90's, his failure to actually do that in the future would be a huge disappointment.