PECOTAs are out

[A New Era]

I thought I'd clean up Wrigley's line-up (flipping 7 and 5)

 

Alphonso Soriano .349 OBP .569 SLG //// .918 OPS

Mark Derosa .335 OBP .421 SLG //// .776 OPS

Derrek Lee .369 OBP .527 SLG //// .896 OPS

Aramis Ramirez .362 OBP .564 SLG //// .926 OPS

Jaque Jones .343 OBP .473 SLG //// .816 OPS

Micheal Barret .357 OBP .482 SLG //// .839 OPS

Matt Murton .365 OBP .476 SLG //// .841 OPS

Ceasar Izturis .329 OBP .357 SLG //// .686 OPS

 

Or you just move everybod up one after Ramirez and insert Pie in the #7 slot and it's still a great line-up.

 

Felix Pie .342 OBP .480 SLG //// .822 OPS

[don_kessinger_was_good]

Some notables:

 

Alfonso Soriano

.287/.349/.569

 

Derrek Lee

.288/.369/.527

 

Aramis Ramirez

.299/.362/.564

 

Matt Murton

.304/.365/.476

 

Michael Barrett

.295/.357/.482

 

I'll be glad to take every one of those lines from those 5 guys.

 

So long as D-Lee is healthy, that's an underestimate of his likely SLG. The guy was 660 in 2005!

 

I think a full season in Wrigley for Sori underestimates his SLG as well. He could make 50 HR as a Cub, easy.

 

I'd be plenty happy with those numbers for Murt and Barrett. I'm hoping for better from Aramis.

 

If we only had a true #5 hitter on our team....(sigh)

[Mephistopheles]

Zambranos walk rates and innings pitched have a lot to do with that.

[WrigleyField 22]

2007

1 .349 .569

2 .335 .421

3 .369 .527

4 .362 .564

5 .365 .476

6 .357 .482

7 .343 .473

8 .329 .357

 

 

I'd take that, although I'd still prefer to replace Izturis regardless of that semi decent OBP.

 

It'd be interesting to see an average of all the different projections and see what kind of lineup we might see.

 

Well, first of all, you might want to remove Jones and add Erstad (.241/.295/.321, but he's a gamer), depending on how much weight you give the recent rumors.

 

The other thing is that PECOTA is pretty much state of the art when it comes to projection systems, so averaging them out wouldn't really give you better results. See this post for details.

 

Then perhaps a weighted average. Theres about three main ones so: 50/25/25, as opposed to 33.3/33.3/33.3. Or even if you wanna say 70/15/15. Just think it would be interesting to see.

[AlwaysaCub]

PECOTA has Felix Pie as a 5 WARP player...why exactly isn't he our starting CF this year?

[AlwaysaCub]

On another note, this is very, very funny: Carlos Zambrano's #3 comparable is Kerry Wood.

 

I don't really buy that though.

[Shilzzz]

murton would look pretty great in that number two slot with those numbers.

 

too bad it isn't happening.

[imb]

Zambranos walk rates and innings pitched have a lot to do with that.

 

he struck out more in 2006 in fewer innings than he had in 2005.

 

His k/9 has gone up 4 straight years.

[abuck1220]

PECOTA has Felix Pie as a 5 WARP player...why exactly isn't he our starting CF this year?

 

because just b/c pecota says it's gonna happen, doesn't mean it will.

 

i don't think there's any way pie puts up a .340+ OBP and/or out-OPS's jones.

[CubinNY]

PECOTA has Felix Pie as a 5 WARP player...why exactly isn't he our starting CF this year?

 

because just b/c pecota says it's gonna happen, doesn't mean it will.

 

i don't think there's any way pie puts up a .340+ OBP and/or out-OPS's jones.

 

Maybe out OPS Jones in AAA but not in MLB, but I don't think Pie will ever be a high OBP guy unless he hits @.300 too.

[Mephistopheles]

Zambranos walk rates and innings pitched have a lot to do with that.

 

he struck out more in 2006 in fewer innings than he had in 2005.

 

His k/9 has gone up 4 straight years.

and his groundball rates have gone down causing an expected increase in his home run rate.

[AlwaysaCub]

PECOTA has Felix Pie as a 5 WARP player...why exactly isn't he our starting CF this year?

 

because just b/c pecota says it's gonna happen, doesn't mean it will.

 

i don't think there's any way pie puts up a .340+ OBP and/or out-OPS's jones.

 

Maybe out OPS Jones in AAA but not in MLB, but I don't think Pie will ever be a high OBP guy unless he hits @.300 too.

 

But WARP is the complete picture...it includes defense too. Even if he's only a 3 win player, which is more than likely, that's probably as good as Jock will do when you consider defense in CF, and it would be at a fraction of the cost.

[A New Era]

I don't think anyone mentioned this and it would be interesting. .

 

What do the CARDINALS line-up project from pecota? (goes to search now). Because I think we have a better "O" than the cards this year and I'd like to see if Pecota agrees with me. And if so by how much.

[Geech]

I don't think anyone mentioned this and it would be interesting. .

 

What do the CARDINALS line-up project from pecota? (goes to search now). Because I think we have a better "O" than the cards this year and I'd like to see if Pecota agrees with me. And if so by how much.

 

A lot depends on what ends up happening in CF, but I don't think the Cobs lineup will be substantially better than the St. Louis lineup if it's better at all.

[Mephistopheles]

I looked at all of the offenses in the division, in two different ways. First I just averaged the projected eight starters for each team. Secondly I then did a weighted average for variances in each spot in the lineup.

 

Straight Average:

1. .278 St. Louis Cardinals

2. .278 Chicago Cubs

3. .275 Milwaukee Brewers

4. .273 Cincinnati Reds

5. .270 Houston Astros

6. .267 Pittsburgh Pirates

 

The fact that Pujols has a projected EqA at .349 and the Cubs have no one over .300 meant a lot. If Pujols goes down or even has a "down" year, they're done for. The Cardinals were slightly better here, averaging out at .2783 and the Cubs were down at .2775. The weighted average didn't do much and improved each teams by about .0075. I'll look ath EqERA in the rotations in a bit.

[cheapseats]

I don't think anyone mentioned this and it would be interesting. .

 

What do the CARDINALS line-up project from pecota? (goes to search now). Because I think we have a better "O" than the cards this year and I'd like to see if Pecota agrees with me. And if so by how much.

 

Edit: KC beat me to the punch. Our numbers pretty much agree.

 

Assuming Murton and Jacque in the lineup for the Cubs and Duncan starting for the Cardinals, the Cubs starting lineup has an EqA of .277 and the Cards has an EqA of .278.

 

With even a decent offensive player at SS, the Cubs would have a stronger projected lineup, but as is it's about even.

[Coach C]

I don't mean to hi-jack the thread, but some Royal fans that I know of, are wondering what PECOTA's prediction of Alex Gordon and Mark Teahen?

 

Much appreciated.

[KingCubsFan]

Before anyone gets excited about these numbers, you should be aware of this:

Eric Patterson: .293/.358/.457

This would make him the 3rd best 2b in baseball. He's not even the third best second base prospect, and that doesn't include young players like Weeks or Kendrick

[treebird]

gordon: 282/364/511

teahen: 283/357/475

[Coach C]

gordon: 282/364/511

teahen: 283/357/475

 

Much appreciated.

[Mephistopheles]

EqERA for the starting rotations (defense factored out as well as park)

 

1. 4.42 Milwaukee Brewers {Sheets, Vargas, Bush, Suppan, Capuano}

2. 4.49 Chicago Cubs {Zambrano, Prior, Hill, Lilly, Marquis}

3. 4.52 St. Louis Cardins {Carpenter, Wainright, Reyes, Mulder, Wells}

4. 4.65 Cincinnati Reds {Harang, Arroyo, Lohse, Milton, Ramirez}

5. 4.68 Pittsburgh Pirates {Snell, Duke, Gorzelanny, Maholm, Chacon}

6. 4.75 Houston Astros {Oswalt, Williams, Nieve, Wandy, Jennings}

 

Wainright was at 4.36, I find that highly unlikely...I'll take that Prior 4.66 ERA with a grain of salt. If he's healthy there's no way he's that bad. If he's hurt then someone else is there, and Guzman's EqERA is 4.80. Over the course of the season, a handful of runs (that probably won't exist because of lower IPs picked up by RPs with ERA's under four).

 

EqERA for Top 5 RPs, and here I may not have looked at who will make the teams the best...

 

1. 3.99 Houston Astros {Lidge, Qualls, Miller, Sampson, Wheeler}

2. 4.07 Pittsburgh Pirates {Gonzalez, Marte, Capps, Santos, Torres}

3. 4.09 Chicago Cubs {Dempster, Wuertz, Howry, Eyre, Cotts}

4. 4.22 Milwaukee Brewers {Capellan, Turnbow, Cordero, Wise, Villanueva}

5. 4.36 St. Louis Cardinals {Isringhausen, Thompson, Johnson, Rincon, Hancock}

6. 4.47 Cincinnati Reds {Bray, Majewski, KENT, Weathers, Coffey}

 

I didn't include Wood's, because it's terrible, that and who knows what we're getting from him.

 

Finally, using defense (averaged to 150 GP by the same lineups above)

 

1. +29.7 St. Louis Cardinals

2. +7.0 Pittsburgh Pirates

3. +3.2 Milwaukee Brewers

4. -1.8 Chicago Cubs

5. -6.0 Houston Astros

6. -25.4 Cincinnati Reds

 

Take these with a grain of salt. It's not UZR and the DT fielding is suspect at best.

[Guest]

I looked at all of the offenses in the division, in two different ways. First I just averaged the projected eight starters for each team. Secondly I then did a weighted average for variances in each spot in the lineup.

 

Straight Average:

1. .278 St. Louis Cardinals

2. .278 Chicago Cubs

3. .275 Milwaukee Brewers

4. .273 Cincinnati Reds

5. .270 Houston Astros

6. .267 Pittsburgh Pirates

 

The fact that Pujols has a projected EqA at .349 and the Cubs have no one over .300 meant a lot. If Pujols goes down or even has a "down" year, they're done for. The Cardinals were slightly better here, averaging out at .2783 and the Cubs were down at .2775. The weighted average didn't do much and improved each teams by about .0075. I'll look ath EqERA in the rotations in a bit.

 

not really a good estimate of an offense though as distribution of good hitters makes a huge difference. ie a lineup of all .300 equ would produce more runs than a lineup that was half .350 and half .250. I think this would apply to pitchers too - I would rather have five #3s than two great starters, one #3 and two terrible starters. at least for the regular season.

 

not sure why I thought Z's ks went down. should have looked it up.

[Geech]

not really a good estimate of an offense though as distribution of good hitters makes a huge difference. ie a lineup of all .300 equ would produce more runs than a lineup that was half .350 and half .250. I think this would apply to pitchers too - I would rather have five #3s than two great starters, one #3 and two terrible starters. at least for the regular season.

 

Any evidence of this? Fiddling around with the Lineup Anlyzer seemed to indicate otherwise.

[Rob]

not really a good estimate of an offense though as distribution of good hitters makes a huge difference. ie a lineup of all .300 equ would produce more runs than a lineup that was half .350 and half .250. I think this would apply to pitchers too - I would rather have five #3s than two great starters, one #3 and two terrible starters. at least for the regular season.

 

Any evidence of this? Fiddling around with the Lineup Anlyzer seemed to indicate otherwise.

 

That's assuming universal health.

 

If the lineup has nothing but .300 EqA's, the production would be easier to replace if somebody went down to injury.

[Mephistopheles]

Actually a lineup of .350s and .250s ought to produce more runs if you run through the formula. Not that is the definitive answer.